Weekend Prediction (3/24-3/26) Play the Derby

[Sandro Mazzola]

Sandro Forecast

Doctor Strange 2: 219.27m
Bad Guys: 9.39m
Sonic 2: 7.30m
EEAAO: 3.20m
FB3: Dumbledore: 3.06m
Northman: 2.61m
Morbius: 2.27m
Lost City: 2.16m
Weight of Massive Talent: 1.60m
Memory: 1.48m

[Grebacio]

Did I miss something? Why are both of you are expecting Morbius to increase from last weekend?

Edited May 5, 2022 by Grebacio

[XXR Didnt Win An Oscar]

12 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Did I miss something? Why are both of you are expecting Morbius to increase from last weekend?

Bump in showtimes tied to Multiverse of Madness.

[Sandro Mazzola]

3 hours ago, Grebacio said:

Did I miss something? Why are both of you are expecting Morbius to increase from last weekend?

 

Morbius is paired with a reasonably high amount of Drive In pairings with DS2, along with Death on the Nile and some Encanto and Shang Chi. 

From memory you have the likes of Captain Marvel here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2019/04/26

Black Panther and Wrinkle in Time here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2018/04/27

Wrinkle again here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2018/06/15

 

Dumbo this weekend:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2019/05/24

It's not a uniquely Disney thing btw, I think Annabelle Creation had DI pairings with IT leading to a much softer drop than expected, essentially keep an eye on large releases between Spring Break and say, Labor Day weekend, when Drive In's are up and running. If you have a large film releasing you might see older films from the same studio paired with the larger film in an effort to bump the older films gross. Its also considerably more wishy washy than conventional box office gross calculations... In the case of Wrinkle highlighted above, Disney used two DI bumps to push that film over the 100m mark after it looked destined to end up in the low 90's.
Death on the Nile is at 45m now, don't be surprised to see that post a 1-2m weekend as they try get it towards 50m. Encanto also has 100m in its sights 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Sandro Mazzola

[Grebacio]

9 minutes ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

 

Morbius is paired with a reasonably high amount of Drive In pairings with DS2, along with Death on the Nile and some Encanto and Shang Chi. 

From memory you have the likes of Captain Marvel here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2019/04/26

Black Panther and Wrinkle in Time here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2018/04/27

Wrinkle again here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2018/06/15

 

Dumbo this weekend:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2019/05/24

It's not a uniquely Disney thing btw, I think Annabelle Creation had DI pairings with IT leading to a much softer drop than expected, essentially keep an eye on large releases between Spring Break and say, Labor Day weekend, when Drive In's are up and running. If you have a large film releasing you might see older films from the same studio paired with the larger film in an effort to bump the older films gross. Its also considerably more wishy washy than conventional box office gross calculations... In the case of Wrinkle highlighted above, Disney used two DI bumps to push that film over the 100m mark after it looked destined to end up in the low 90's.
Death on the Nile is at 45m now, don't be surprised to see that post a 1-2m weekend as they try get it towards 50m. Encanto also has 100m in its sights 

The strange thing is that this time the two movies are not from the same studio

[Sandro Mazzola]

50 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

The strange thing is that this time the two movies are not from the same studio

 

yeah, and stranger still is the bizarre choice to pick Morbius over NWH... 

[ViktorLosAngeles]

MAY 13-15:

 

1. "Doctor Strange 2" - 67.5 / 298.6

2. "The Bad Guys" - 6.9 / 66.3

3. "Sonic 2" - 4.7 / 175.9

4. "Firestarter" - 4.4

5. "Everything Everywhere" - 3.0 / 46.7

6. "Fantastic Beasts 3" - 2.9 / 90.6

7. "The Lost City" - 2.2 / 97.7

8. "The Northman" - 1.9 / 31.4

9. "Family Camp" - 1.3

10. "The Unbearable" - 0.9 / 18.1

11. "Memory" - 0.7 / 7.0

12. "Father Stu" - 0.4 / 20.1

Edited May 11, 2022 by ViktorLosAngeles

[lilmac]

My Derby projection for Memory is $0.623M which is EXACTLY what it would earn if it dropped another 55% (I didn’t remember its drop last weekend before I entered the wild guess). What are the odds….down to the 3rd decimal place. Wow. Haha. 

[ViktorLosAngeles]

MAY 20-22:

 

1. "Doctor Strange 2" - 27.7 / 341.4

2. "Downton Abbey 2" - 15.8

3. "Men" - 5.3

4. "The Bad Guys" - 5.1 / 74.0

5. "Sonic 2" - 3.5 / 180.9

6. "Everything Everywhere" - 2.9 / 51.5

7. "Fantastic Beasts 3" - 1.4 / 92.3

8. "Firestarter" - 1.3 / 6.1

9. "The Lost City" - 1.2 / 99.0

10. "The Northman" - 1.0 / 32.8

11. "Family Camp" - 0.7 / 2.5

12. "The Unbearable" - 0.6 / 19.2

[ViktorLosAngeles]

MAY 27-29:
 

1. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 95.5

2. "Doctor Strange 2" - 12.9 / 365.8

3. "Downton Abbey 2" - 7.5 / 27.8

4. "The Bob' Burger" - 6.8

5. "The Bad Guys" - 3.3 / 79.8

6. "Everything Everywhere" - 2.2 / 55.7

7. "Sonic 2" - 2.0 / 184.4

8. "Men" - 1.2 / 5.5

9. "Fantastic Beasts 3" - 0.8 / 94.5

10. "The Lost City" - 0.8 / 100.5

11. "Firestarter" - 0.6 / 8.1

12. "The Northman" - 0.4 / 33.7

[ViktorLosAngeles]

JUNE 3-5:

 

1. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 58.5 / 238.1

2. "Doctor Strange 2" - 10.0 / 390.7

3. "The Bob's Burgers Movie" - 7.1 / 24.5

4. "The Bad Guys" - 3.4 / 87.9

5. "Downton Abbey 2" - 3.2 / 34.9

6. "Everything Everywhere" - 2.1 / 60.4

7. "The Watcher" - 2.0

8. "Sonic 2" - 1.7 / 188.1

9. "Deep in the Heart" - 1.3

10. "The Lost City" - 1.2 / 104.0

11. "Men" - 0.5 / 7.1

12. "Fantastic Beasts 3" - 0.5 / 95.4

[ViktorLosAngeles]

JUNE 17-19:

 

1. "Lightyear" - 88.7

2. "Jurassic Park: Dominion" - 55.1 / 255.8

3. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 31.8 / 450.7

4. "Doctor Strange 2" - 3.3 / 403.6

5. "The Bad Guys" - 1.9 / 94.9

6. "The Bob Burger's Movie" - 1.3 / 29.5

7. "Everything Everywhere" - 1.1 / 64.9

8. "Downton Abbey 2" - 1.0 / 42.2

9. "Sonic 2" - 0.5 / 190.7

10. "The Lost City" - 0.3 / 105.5

11. "Firestarter" - 0.3 / 9.8

12. "Uncharted" - 0.2 / 148.7

Edited June 14, 2022 by ViktorLosAngeles

[ViktorLosAngeles]

JUNE 24-26:

 

1. "Top Gun 2" - 33.1 / 524.3

2. "Elvis" - 31.9

3. "Jurassic World 3" - 29.1 / 305.5

4. "Lightyear" - 22.7 / 93.8

5. "The Black Phone" - 19.1

6. "Doctor Strange 2" - 2.6 / 410.1

7. "Everything Everywhere" - 0.7 / 66.1

8. "The Bad Guys" - 0.6 / 95.6

9. "The Bob Burger's Movie" - 0.5 / 31.0

10. "Downton Abbey 2" - 0.4 / 43.3

11. "Sonic 2" - 0.2 / 190.8

12. I have no idea what to put here...

 

But #1 spot is a three film battle from what I can see.

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by ViktorLosAngeles

[ViktorLosAngeles]

JULY 1-3:

 

1. "Minions 2" - 58.8

2. "Top Gun 2" - 21.9 / 560.3

3. "Elvis" - 20.9 / 69.1

4. "Jurassic World 3" - 13.9 / 330.2

5. "The Black Phone" - 13.7 / 49.3

6. "Lightyear" - 10.8 / 110.3

7. "Dr. Strange 2" - 1.4 / 411.7

8. "Mr. Malcolm's List" - 1.1

9. "Everything Everywhere" - 0.5 / 66.9

10. "The Bad Guys" - 0.3 / 96.1

[ViktorLosAngeles]

JULY 8-10:

 

1. "Thor: Love and Thunder" - 159.3

2. "Minions 2" - 47.6 / 211.7

3. "Top Gun 2" - 17.8 / 600.2

4. "Elvis" - 11.9 / 92.1

5. "Jurassic World 3" - 8.5 / 350.6

6. "The Black Phone" - 6.1 / 60.8

7. "Lightyear" - 3.0 / 112.6

8. "Everything Everywhere" - 0.5 / 67.8

9. "Mr. Malcolm's List" - 0.4 / 1.7

10. "Doctor Strange 2" - 0.3 / 411.1

 

 

 

Edited July 7, 2022 by ViktorLosAngeles

[ViktorLosAngeles]

JULY 15-17:

 

1. "Thor: Love and Thunder" - 49.2 / 235.8

2. "Minions 2" - 25.1 / 261.3

3. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 12.0 / 617.7

4. "Where the Crawdads Sing" - 11.2

5. "Elvis" - 7.1 / 105.9

6. "Paws of Fury" - 6.8

7. "The Black Phone" - 4.6 / 71.3

8. "Jurassic World 3" - 4.5 / 359.2

9. "Lightyear" - 1.4 / 115.5.

10."Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris" - 0.8

11. "Marcel the Shell" - 0.6 / 1.7

Edited July 14, 2022 by ViktorLosAngeles

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, ViktorLosAngeles said:

JULY 15-17:

 

1. "Thor: Love and Thunder" - 58.5 / 238.3

2. "Minions 2" - 25.1 / 253.5

3. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 10.1 / 614.2

4. "Elvis" - 6.8 / 102.6

5. "The Black Phone" - 4.6 / 69.8

6. "Jurassic World 3" - 4.5 / 358.2

7. "Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris" - 3.2

8. "Lightyear" - 1.4 / 114.8

9. "Where the Crawdads Sing" - 1.1

10. "Marcel the Shell" - 0.5 / 1.6

no Paws of Fury and you think Crawdads will make just a million dollars?

[ViktorLosAngeles]

JULY 22-24:

 

1. "Nope" - 53.9

2. "Thor: Love and Thunder" - 21.1 / 275.3

3. "Minions 2" - 15.0 / 294.6

4. "Where the Crawdads Sing" - 9.5 / 37.6

5. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 9.4 / 634.7

6. "Elvis" - 5.9 / 117.9

7. "Paws of Fury" - 3.3 / 13.0

8. "The Black Phone" - 3.1 / 78.2

9. "Jurassic World 3" - 2.8 / 365.3

10. "Marcel the Shell" - 1.2 / 3.2

11. "Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris" - 1.0 / 4.3

12. "Lightyear" - 0.6 / 117.0

Edited July 22, 2022 by ViktorLosAngeles

[ViktorLosAngeles]

JULY 29-31:

 

1. "DC League of Super-Pets" - 34.7

2. "Nope" - 21.7 / 80.9

3. "Minions 2" - 11.0 / 317.0

4. "Thor: Love and Thunder" - 10.7 / 295.4

5. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 7.5 / 647.7

6. "Where the Crawdads Sing" - 6.3 / 49.0

7. "Elvis" - 4.2 / 125.4

8. "The Black Phone" - 2.2 / 82.2

9. "Paws of Fury" - 1.9 / 17.4

10. "Vengeance" - 1.7

11. "Jurassic World 3" - 1.6 / 368.2

12. "Mrs. Harris goes to Paris" - 0.9 / 6.2

 

AUGUST 5-7:

 

1. "Bullet Train" - 31.1

2. "DC League of Super-Pets" - 20.1 / 68.0

3. "Easter Sunday" - 11.5

4. "Nope" - 11.3 / 101.2

5. "Minions 2" - 6.8 / 329.4

6. "Top Gun:Maverick" - 5.7 / 656.8

7. "Thor:Love and Thunder" - 5.4 / 305.0

8. "Bodies, Bodies, Bodies" - 4.4

9. "Where the Crawdads Sing" - 3.8 / 55.7

10. "Elvis" - 2.7 / 130.1

11. "The Black Phone" - 1.2 / 84.4

12. "Vengeance" - 0.9 - 3.5

 

AUGUST 12-14:

 

1. "Bullet Train" - 19.8 / 63.4

2. "DC League of Super-Pets" - 13.3 / 91.0

3. "Easter Sunday" - 6.8 / 23.7

4. "Nope" - 6.1 / 112.4

5. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 4.4 / 664.1

6. "Minions 2" - 4.1 / 336.6

7. "Mack & Rita" - 3.3

8. "Thor: Love and Thunder" - 3.2 / 310.6

9. "Where the Crawdads Sing" - 2.3 / 59.7

10. "Bodies, Bodies, Bodies" - 2.0 / 8.3

11. "Elvis" - 1.6 / 132.8

12. "Summering" - 0.7

 

AUGUST 19-21:

 

1. "Bullet Train" - 12.1 / 84.5

2. "Beast" - 10.5

3. "DC League of Super-Pets" - 8.2 / 104.9

4. "Easter Sunday" - 4.0 / 30.8

5. "Nope" - 3.4 / 118.5

6. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 3.3 / 669.4

7. "Minions 2" - 2.4 / 340.8

8. "Mack & Rita" - 2.0 / 6.8

9. "Thor: Love and Thunder" - 1.7 / 313.7

10. "Where the Crawdads Sing" - 1.5 / 62.2

11. "Elvis" - 1.1 / 134.7

12. "Bodies, Bodies, Bodies" - 0.9 / 10.1

 

AUGUST 26-28:

 

1. "Bullet Train" - 8.0 / 97.4

2. "Breaking" - 7.1

3. "Beast" - 6.0 / 21.1

4. "DC League of Super-Pets" - 5.5 / 114.0

5. "The Invitation" - 4.7

6. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 2.6 / 673.5

7. "Easter Sunday" - 2.2 / 34.7

8. "Nope" - 1.8 / 121.8

9. "Minions 2" - 1.6 / 343.4

10. "Mack & Rita" - 1.2 / 9.0

11. "Thor: Love and Thunder" - 1.0 / 315.5

12. "Where the Crawdads Sing" - 1.0 / 63.9

 

SEPTEMBER 2-4:

 

1. "Bullet Train" - 5.7 / 106.2

2. "DC League of Super-Pets" - 4.1 / 119.9

3. "Breaking" - 4.1 / 14.1

4. "Honk for Jesus" - 3.8

5. "Beast" - 3.7 / 27.0

6. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 3.0 / 677.6

7. "The Invitation" - 2.8 / 9.3

8. "Easter Sunday" - 1.6 / 37.2

9. "Minions 2" - 1.2 / 345.3

10. "Nope" - 1.1 / 123.6

11. "Mack & Rita" - 0.8 / 10.4

12. "Thor: Love and Thunder" - 0.6 / 316.5

 

Projected totals:

 

1. "Jurassic World 3" - $371 million

2. "Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris" - $8 million

3. "Vengeance" - $5 million

4. "Paws of Fury" - $20 million

5. "The Black Phone" - $86.5 million

6. "Elvis" - $137 million

7. "Bodies, Bodies, Bodies" - $11.3 million

8. "Where the Crawdads Sing" - $66.5 million

9. "Thor: Love and Thunder" - $317.3 million

10. "Mack & Rita" - $11.4 million

11. " Nope" - $125 million

12. "Minions 2" - $347 million

13. "Easter Sunday" - $40 million

14. "The Invitation" - $13.8 million

15. "Top Gun: Maverick" - $685 million

16. "Beast" - $33 million

17. "Honk for Jesus" - $9.5 million

18. "Breaking" - $20.5 million

19. "DC League of Super-Pets" - $127.3 million

20. "Bullet Train" - $116 million

21. "Everything Everywhere All At Once" - $69.3 million

22. "Lightyear" - $118 million

 

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by ViktorLosAngeles

[ViktorLosAngeles]

AUGUST 5-7:

 

1. "Bullet Train" - 27.8

2. "DC League of Super-Pets" - 13.3 / 45.5

3. "Nope" - 9.8 / 99.0

4. "Easter Sunday" - 8.9

5. "Thor:Love and Thunder" - 7.4 / 315.3

6. "Minions 2" - 7.1 / 332.8

7. "Top Gun:Maverick" - 6.5 / 660.7

8. "Bodies, Bodies, Bodies" - 5.6

9. "Where the Crawdads Sing" - 5.3 / 62.7

10. "Elvis" - 4.4 / 136.4

11. "The Black Phone" - 1.7 / 86.0

12. "Jurassic World 3" - 1.4 / 371.8