Avengers: Age of Ultron OS Thread | $945.7M OS | $1.405B WW

[POTUS 2020]

According to johnny it will have less screens making it difficult to make 250m in the first 10-12days.  FF7 did in 8 w sunday opener. Itll need to to do that to clear 300 due to screen loss the following weekends

[Ent]

So far, Mexico, South Korea and the UK can all potentially hit $80+ M each, right ?

[Ent]

According to johnny it will have less screens making it difficult to make 250m in the first 10-12days.  FF7 did in 8 w sunday opener. Itll need to to do that to clear 300 due to screen loss the following weekends

 

I think regardless of the lesser number of screens, it has its first two weekends with basicly no competition, which to me makes it a contender for the $300M at the end of its run.

[POTUS 2020]

	OS-C	China	OS	Dom	WW
Alucard	900.0	300.0	1200.0	650.0	1850.0
AxelSteal	950.0	350.0	1300.0	650.0	1950.0
Quigley	840.0	280.0	1120.0	630.0	1750.0
Pypa94	855.0	302.0	1157.0	593.0	1750.0
fmpro	815.0	265.0	1080.0	575.0	1655.0
The Stingray	850.0	300.0	1150.0	500.0	1650.0
Infernus	825.0	285.0	1110.0	565.0	1675.0
Ent	.		1100.0	550.0	1650.0
GokaiRed	825.0	250.0	1075.0	575.0	1650.0
Mattw	800.0	300.0	1100.0	525.0	1625.0
picres	750.0	300.0	1050.0	550.0	1600.0
MikeTheAvenger	850.0	200.0	1050.0	550.0	1600.0
Johnny Storm	810.0	265.0	1075.0	525.0	1600.0
AD3S			1000.0	590.0	1590.0
peludo	750.0	275.0	1025.0	550.0	1575.0
Fake	800.0	250.0	1050.0	500.0	1550.0
Keysersoze	750.0	300.0	1050.0	500.0	1550.0
Deathlife			1010.0	525.0	1535.0
Cynosure	750.0	250.0	1000.0	525.0	1525.0
Katch 22	800.0	200.0	1000.0	520.0	1520.0
M F Lawrence	725.0	250.0	975.0	500.0	1475.0
samsha22	715.0	235.0	950.0	505.0	1455.0
Average	808.4	271.4	1074.0	552.4	1626.4

 

Its looking like the winner will be in the bottom half of the group unless there is a big hold next week in both OD and DOM

[POTUS 2020]

oh God.

 

+44%/+24%  on TA/IM3 was when considering local currencies.

On a dollar basis it would have been more like +17%/10% respectively.

 

And when they said +7%/+6% they took out the OW of China in both movies (otherwise it would have been down something since both TA and IM3 were above 440 M after 2nd WE OS)

samething regardless. it dropped from 17% to 7% showing weaker legs was the point.  its sliding. os will fall short of TA1 -Ch due to currency

[DeeCee]

AoU may not catch FF7 in Australia. It's going to be very close.

[Infernus]

OS-C China OS Dom WW Alucard 900.0 300.0 1200.0 650.0 1850.0 AxelSteal 950.0 350.0 1300.0 650.0 1950.0 Quigley 840.0 280.0 1120.0 630.0 1750.0 Pypa94 855.0 302.0 1157.0 593.0 1750.0 fmpro 815.0 265.0 1080.0 575.0 1655.0 The Stingray 850.0 300.0 1150.0 500.0 1650.0 Infernus 825.0 285.0 1110.0 565.0 1675.0 Ent . 1100.0 550.0 1650.0 GokaiRed 825.0 250.0 1075.0 575.0 1650.0 Mattw 800.0 300.0 1100.0 525.0 1625.0 picres 750.0 300.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 MikeTheAvenger 850.0 200.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 Johnny Storm 810.0 265.0 1075.0 525.0 1600.0 AD3S 1000.0 590.0 1590.0 peludo 750.0 275.0 1025.0 550.0 1575.0 Fake 800.0 250.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Keysersoze 750.0 300.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Deathlife 1010.0 525.0 1535.0 Cynosure 750.0 250.0 1000.0 525.0 1525.0 Katch 22 800.0 200.0 1000.0 520.0 1520.0 M F Lawrence 725.0 250.0 975.0 500.0 1475.0 samsha22 715.0 235.0 950.0 505.0 1455.0 Average 808.4 271.4 1074.0 552.4 1626.4

Its looking like the winner will be in the bottom half of the group unless there is a big hold next week in both OD and DOM

Funny, and yet sad, to think that there are good chances of this grossing less DOM than even the lowest prediction for DOM here. Really disappointing. I am still optimistic for OS though. Anything between 1 to 1.1B OS is still very possible.

[Infernus]

So far, Mexico, South Korea and the UK can all potentially hit $80+ M each, right ?

Around 95m in SK, a little over 80m in UK and something between 60-70m in Mexico seem to be the most possible final grosses in these markets as of now. So around 235-250m in total from these markets.

[Quigley]

Around 95m in SK, a little over 80m in UK and something between 60-70m in Mexico seem to be the most possible final grosses in these markets as of now. So around 235-250m in total from these markets.

With a $25M wknd, I don't see why it can't get close to $80M if not surpass it.

[Infernus]

With a $25M wknd, I don't see why it can't get close to $80M if not surpass it.

I can't do anything about what you 'see'. As for me, here's what I 'see' - FF7 broke the OW record with 21.5m and its looking very difficult for it to reach even 55m total as of now. With the same multiplier AOU would reach around 62m, almost exactly what TA1 made. Now i don't see why it will have a much better multiplier than FF7 when its presales, hype and sequel-status all point out to its fronloadedness. As such even 70m in itself seems a little too much for it. Thus even my 60-70m range is actually a lttle high and optimistic. It isn't too bad though, even 63m would mean highest grossing movie in Mexico even after much worse exchange rates than the previous record holder (Avengers 1 with 61.7m).

Edited May 4, 2015 by Infernus

[Ent]

Funny, and yet sad, to think that there are good chances of this grossing less DOM than even the lowest prediction for DOM here. Really disappointing. I am still optimistic for OS though. Anything between 1 to 1.1B OS is still very possible.

 

 

TA hit $62M after a $17.5M opening in 2012. 

 

So i don't see why a 50% opening weekend increase putting AOU at $25.5M could not put it at $80M finished run, at the very least.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Ent

[Ent]

I can't do anything about what you 'see'. As for me, here's what I 'see' - FF7 broke the OW record with 21.5m and its looking very difficult for it to reach even 55m total as of now. With the same multiplier AOU would reach around 62m, almost exactly what TA1 made. Now i don't see why it will have a much better multiplier than FF7 when its presales, hype and sequel-status all point out to its fronloadedness. As such even 70m in itself seems a little too much for it. Thus even my 60-70m range is actually a lttle high and optimistic. It isn't too bad though, even 63m would mean highest grossing movie in Mexico even after much worse exchange rates than the previous record holder (Avengers 1 with 61.7m).

 

Isn't FF7 in the same situation ?

 

A beloved sequel, featuring Paul Walker role in his fetish role for thevery last time ?

 

Quite frankly the hype for both sequels to me were on par for different reasons.  It's pretty obvious as to how much FF7 exploded from FF6 to FF7 from opening weekends to legs.  The demand was just suddenly bigger all around.

 

So to me nothing suggests at this stage that AOU has somewhat asorbed the bulk of demand on its huge opening weekend because of hype and that the demand hasn't increased from TA instead. 

 

Besides, comparing it to TA legs (3.55 multiplier), which is a more suitable comparison would put it at $90.5M with the same TA legs. 

 

So $80M is a good guess between what a movie has done and what a 50% increase of its sequel opening weekend could reach with a lesser multiplier. 

 

Granted inflation, putting it at the same amount as TA or a little higher would suggest that the demand hasn't inreased in the second most popular south american market for that franchise, when most of them especially Brasil show that if not for the overall number the admission one has increased from TA's.

 

So why would Brasil demand/admission number increase and not Mexico ?

Edited May 4, 2015 by Ent

[Infernus]

Isn't FF7 in the same situation ?

A beloved sequel, featuring Paul Walker role in his fetish role for thevery last time ?

Quite frankly the hype for both sequels to me were on par for different reasons. It's pretty obvious as to how much FF7 exploded from FF6 to FF7 from opening weekends to legs. The demand was just suddenly bigger all around.

So to me nothing suggests at this stage that AOU has somewhat asorbed the bulk of demand on its huge opening weekend because of hype and that the demand hasn't increased from TA instead.

Besides, comparing it to TA legs (3.55 multiplier), which is a more suitable comparison would put it at $90.5M with the same TA legs.

So $80M is a good guess between what a movie has done and what a 50% increase of its sequel opening weekend could reach with a lesser multiplier.

Granted inflation, putting it at the same amount as TA or a little higher would suggest that the demand hasn't inreased in the second most popular south american market for that franchise, when most of them especially Brasil show that if not for the overall number the admission one has increased from TA's.

So why would Brasil demand/admission number increase and not Mexico ?

Yeah the admissions would increase but the effect would be heavily dimNished due to weak exchange rates. And there is no way this will have a multiplier close to Avengers. Its multiplier may be better than FF7's but still no way its going to get higher than 3. Anyways I had predicted 75m (which was very optimistic) for this in mexico prior to its release and right now that seems to be the roof for this and there's almost 0 chance of this passing that unless the Mexican audience is just stunned by this. Even 70m would be beating the previous highest grossing record by 14.75 % in Dollars and even more in local currency. So lower your expectations if you don't wanna be disappointed and just enjoy the fact that its outgrossing TA1 like Fullbuster. Edited May 4, 2015 by Infernus

[Ent]

Yeah the admissions would increase but the effect would be heavily dimNished due to weak exchange rates. And there is no way this will have a multiplier close to Avengers. Its multiplier may be better than FF7's but still no way its going to get higher than 3. Anyways I had predicted 75m (which was very optimistic) for this in mexico prior to its release and right now that seems to be the roof for this and there's almost 0 chance of this passing that unless the Mexican audience is just stunned by this. Even 70m would be beating the previous highest grossing record by 14.75 % in Dollars and even more in local currency. So lower your expectations if you don't wanna be disappointed and just enjoy the fact that its outgrossing TA1 like Fullbuster.

 

Here is the thing though : there isnt a weak exchange rate between the peso and the dollar.

 

Slightly weak exchange rate  : yes but much weaker that it completely erase or negate both increase in ticket price and admission ?  Absolutely NOT !    Not since the mexican currency has been tied to the dollar to limit those exchange rate fluctuations.

 

Mexico is the south american market with the lowest exchange rate fluctuation compared to the dollar.  That's why, from the get go, it was the one south american market where expections of an increase were much more projected compared to Brasil and its money devaluation.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Ent

[Ent]

...

Edited May 4, 2015 by Ent

[POTUS 2020]

Here is the thing though : there isnt a weak exchange rate between the peso and the dollar.

 

Slightly weak exchange rate  : yes but much weaker that it completely erase or negate both increase in ticket price and admission ?  Absolutely NOT !    Not since the mexican currency has been tied to the dollar to limit those exchange rate fluctuations.

 

Mexico is the south american market with the lowest exchange rate fluctuation compared to the dollar.  That's why, from the get go, it was the one south american market where expections of an increase were much more projected compared to Brasil and its money devaluation.

peso is 12% weaker from may 2012 that's more than nominal

Euro is 15% weaker from may 2012, not much difference in weakness to overcome

Mexico is in North America

Edited May 4, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[edroger3]

....This is the perfect movie for Chinese market ....

Yes, perfect. Like TF4 and FF7, tons of loud CGI, loud explosion, loud fight with very basic (and boring) dialogues: nothing that we haven't  already seen and heard. 

[Infernus]

Here is the thing though : there isnt a weak exchange rate between the peso and the dollar.

Slightly weak exchange rate : yes but much weaker that it completely erase or negate both increase in ticket price and admission ? Absolutely NOT ! Not since the mexican currency has been tied to the dollar to limit those exchange rate fluctuations.

Mexico is the south american market with the lowest exchange rate fluctuation compared to the dollar. That's why, from the get go, it was the one south american market where expections of an increase were much more projected compared to Brasil and its money devaluation.

The currency is 12% weaker, 12%! Thatsa really notable difference. I don't even think there's gonna be a 12% increase in admissions. And if you think it can grow 31 % in total gross from its predecessor (also the highest grossing movie yet which is like a movie beating Avatar in US in 2012 by 230m) to 80m and that too after a 12% decline in currency (which is like beating avatar in 2012 in US by 350m) then you only have my consolations.

Also mexico is a North american country. It and Brazil are both latin american countries though.

[Ent]

The currency is 12% weaker, 12%! Thatsa really notable difference. I don't even think there's gonna be a 12% increase in admissions. And if you think it can grow 31 % in total gross from its predecessor (also the highest grossing movie yet which is like a movie beating Avatar in US in 2012 by 230m) to 80m and that too after a 12% decline in currency (which is like beating avatar in 2012 in US by 350m) then you only have my consolations.

Also mexico is a North american country. It and Brazil are both latin american countries though.

 

12 % is a weak exchange rate in terms of financial impact.  Three year of inflation and ticket price increase is likely to nullify and even outprice the drop of the currency value.   It's not a 40%+ drop like Brasil that wouldn't be compensate by inflation.

 

With such a small drop and three years of inflation, any demand increase should have an impact o the revenue, especally when it's about the second most popular country of the latine american region for this franchise.

 

Basicly if Brasil show that the demand has increased through admission numbers, Mexico is liKely to experience the same and have a higher admission numbers for AOU compared to TA. 

 

And since the impact of the weaker exchange rate in that country is much lower and certainly lower than 3 years of inflation and ticket price rise, the drop of currency value can't impact negatively the increase of the demand...revenue should increase higher than your projected numbers.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Ent

[Infernus]

12 % is a weak exchange rate in terms of financial impact. Three year of inflation and ticket price increase is likely to nullify and even outprice the drop of the currency value. It's not a 40%+ drop like Brasil that wouldn't be compensate by inflation.

With such a small drop and three years of inflation, any demand increase should have an impact o the revenue, especally when it's about the second most popular country of the latine american region for this franchise.

Basicly if Brasil show that the demand has increased through admission numbers, Mexico is liKely to experience the same and have a higher admission numbers for AOU compared to TA.

And since the impact of the weaker exchange rate in that country is much lower and certainly lower than 3 years of inflation and ticket price rise, the drop of currency value can't impact negatively the increase of the demand...revenue should increase higher than your projected numbers.

Now I dont know about the inflation in ticket prices in Mexico but I doubt it is enough to negate the weak currency but even if it is then too 80m would mean an increase of 31% which is just too much especially when that predecessor is also still the highest grossing movie ever. As I said that is equal to Avatar 2 beating Avatar in US in 2012 (after 3 years of inflation, that is) by 230m (and i am not factoring in the decrease in curremcy value here, that would mean increase of 350m).