MinaTakla Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Interesting Spotlight and the Martian now have the same RT 93%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tau Ceti Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 45 minutes ago, MinaTakla said: Interesting Spotlight and the Martian now have the same RT 93%. Brooklyn is about to debut at 100%. I'm really looking forward to Spotlight but I think its being anointed so early is a mixed blessing. It already has a lot to live up to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I like to look at The film experience. There you can find smart predictions by Nathaniel Rogers. He has updated his best picture predictions. This is what he thinks right now... 1. The Martian (he thinks it is locked) 2. Spotlight (another locked) 3. The revenant 4. Room 5. Brooklyn 6. Bridge of Spies 7. Steve Jobs 8. Inside Out 9. Sicario 10. Joy 11. Carol 12. Danish girl 13. Mad max 14. Youth 15. Hateful 8 I think he is overestimating Sicario chances and underestimating Joy. Steve Jobs is fading and very vulnerable at this moment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 (edited) updated now. brooklyn at 100% a standout 1. the revenant 2. joy 3. spotlight 4. brooklyn (100% 8.5/10 ave rating). 5. bridge of spies 6. room 7. steve jobs 8. hateful eight 9. danish girl 10. the martian(now makes it in) Edited November 3, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 What about the Big Short? How's the buzz? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 (edited) Just saw Steve Jobs last night, I loved it. The dialogue was so stinking rich and the way the actors played off of each other and their line was something special.. I never would have thought Seth Rogen would be in talks for an acting Oscar. but it was every single actor in the film, the highpoints being Fassbender and Winslet who were astounding. So out of only films I have seen here are my nomination predictions Steve Jobs -Best Picture (lock) -Best Director Danny Boyle (lock) -Best Actor Michael Fassbender lock (best performance I've seen this year, Leonardo is the only actor I could see beating him, but I still have to see Revenant) -Best Adapted Screenplay (lock) -Best Supporting Actress Kate Winslet lock (hard to time seeing anyone beating her) -Best Supporting Actor Jeff Daniels (Extremely likely) -Best Supporting Actor Michael Stuhlbarg (Very Likely) -Best Supporting Actor Seth Rogen (possible) -Best Original Score Daniel Pemberton (Very likely) -Best Cinematography (Possible) -Best Costumes (Likely) -Best Art Direction (Possible) Inside Out -Best Picture (very likely at this point) -Best Original Screenplay (Near lock) -Best Animated Feature (lock) -Best Original Score (likely) -Best Sound Editing (likely) -Best Sound (possible) Mad Max Fury Road -Best Picture (likely at this point) -Best Director George Miller (Likely at this point) -Best Visual Effects (Near Lock) -Best Cinematography (Near Lock) -Best Sound (Near Lock) -Best Sound Editing (Near Lock) -Best Art Direction (Very Likely) -Best Make-up (Likely) -Best Costumes (Possible) -Best Actress Charlize Theron (Unlikely at this point, but possible) The Martian -Best Picture (Likely at this point) -Best Director Ridley Scott (Near lock) -Best Actor Matt Damon (Possible) -Best Sound (Near Lock) -Best Sound Editing (near Lock) -Best Adapted Screenplay (very likely) -Best Visual Effects (likely) -Best Cinematography (possible) -Best Art Direction (possible) -Best Original Score (unlikely, but possible) Those are the only movie I've seen that I think have strong chances of BP nominations. I honestly think In the Heart of the Sea, may have a better chance than some people may think, especially after that trailer. Edited November 3, 2015 by Kalo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Most of your locks are far from, such as Boyle in director and even Steve Jobs in picture. The supporting actor performances aren't going to get recognized in Steve Jobs because they will cause major vote splitting. Furthermore, the way the film works actually structurally disallows for a standout performance because they come and go in such measured ways. They are like a random obstacle presented for Jobs rather than a comprehensive part of his development. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 2 minutes ago, TStechnij said: Most of your locks are far from, such as Boyle in director and even Steve Jobs in picture. The supporting actor performances aren't going to get recognized in Steve Jobs because they will cause major vote splitting. Furthermore, the way the film works actually structurally disallows for a standout performance because they come and go in such measured ways. They are like a random obstacle presented for Jobs rather than a comprehensive part of his development. Will I think probably only one of them will get the nomination for supporting actor, maybe two. but they all were great so it's hard choosing one. and I do believe Jobs is a lock, close to it anyway. and this is my opinion, and based on the reception of films I've seen could change as I see more. and I'm aware I may not be 100% accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Kalo said: Will I think probably only one of them will get the nomination for supporting actor, maybe two. but they all were great so it's hard choosing one. and I do believe Jobs is a lock, close to it anyway. and this is my opinion, and based on the reception of films I've seen could change as I see more. and I'm aware I may not be 100% accurate. I think it will get a picture nomination too, but the bad press could hurt it. Director is looking less likely because of everything and the critiques that that is the weakest elements. Daniels would be my pick. He is really killer in the role, but the category is so stacked with Spotlight likely earning two noms, Joy contending for two noms and a shitton of dudes in The Hateful Eight. Edited November 3, 2015 by TStechnij Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Just now, TStechnij said: I think it will get a picture nomination too, but the bad press could hurt it. Director is looking less likely because of everything and the critiques that that is the weakest elements. Daniels would be my pick. He is really killed in the role, but the category is so stacked with Spotlight likely earning two noms, Joy contending for two noms and a shitton of dudes in The Hateful Eight. Yes Daniels would probably be my top choice. director may not be a lock. but considering how everyone's performances was fantastic, I feel he deserves it , isn't that the directors main goal to get good performances? and as in bad press do you mean underperformance box office wise? cause that shouldn't really factor into weather it gets nominated or not. not imo anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 9 minutes ago, Kalo said: Yes Daniels would probably be my top choice. director may not be a lock. but considering how everyone's performances was fantastic, I feel he deserves it , isn't that the directors main goal to get good performances? and as in bad press do you mean underperformance box office wise? cause that shouldn't really factor into weather it gets nominated or not. not imo anyway. If it quietly underperformed, I'd agree. The trades really beat the hell out of it though. The BP and BD races are super fluid this year, so I don't think it'll help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 1 minute ago, TStechnij said: If it quietly underperformed, I'd agree. The trades really beat the hell out of it though. The BP and BD races are super fluid this year, so I don't think it'll help. Well that's true, you're kind of right I feel this is the most unpredictable year in a long time for BP nominations and winning. I just have this gut feeling that it will end being be a lot more GA friendly this year than usual. with at least one of TFW, MMFR, The Martian or IO getting a nomination. quite possibly two of them and maybe even more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I think the ship has sailed on Boyle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tau Ceti Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Ya, I don't think Jobs is a lock for anything at this point except maybe lead actor. If it doesn't see a correction it won't even be in theatres by the time the nominations come out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I'm also starting to think IO is going to falter in favor for a prestige pic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I'm counting on it faltering because I want The Good Dinosaur to split voters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 11 hours ago, TStechnij said: I'm also starting to think IO is going to falter in favor for a prestige pic. I hope you are wrong with this! I am still very confident in IO chances. More than splitting votes, I believe TGD will help IO to finally be nommed. Academy can focus on the great year Pixar has had and easily vote for the more serious/ambitious/adult/risky/original/succesful movie Pixar has made this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Steve Jobs theoretically can still get nominated across the board, but it isn't winning anything after that expansion. It didn't just underperform, the audience flat out rejected it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 (edited) ok steve jobs looks done with only 85% RT not high enough. updated 1. the revenant 2. joy 3. spotlight 4. brooklyn 5. the big short 6. bridge of spies 7. the hateful eight 8. room 9. in the heart of the sea 10. the martian Edited November 6, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 The big short, Hateful eight and In the heart of the sea are still less probable than Steve Jobs, Inside Out or Carol. RT is not the only indicator to look at, and 85% is solid enough. There are a lot of BP contenders with a 85% RT score. Anyways, I am also very doubtful about SJ chances at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
