marveldcfox Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Hello all. New to the forums. Excited to talk about movies and box office. As the thread title says, could someone help me with making sense of HSX moviestock. for example, http://www.hsx.com/security/view/FAST7 What does the number mean. Does it mean it is expected to do that much at box office ? How accurate is it? Does it help in predicting box office numbers fairly accurately? Any response is welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 (edited) HSX is like a stock market, if you think a movie will do really well you buy its stock and the stock price goes up. If you think it will do badly, you short the stock and price goes down. The stock price shown for a given movie is what HSX as a whole thinks a movie will do in 4 weeks i.e. from opening weekend to weekend 4. Then the stock delists and you get to keep whatever loss/profit you have. They also have opening weekend bonds which you can buy, those bonds are priced based on tracking + internal estimates of how well a movie will do. Like any other tracking service, HSX is not always accurate and is prone to be influenced by factors like behind the scenes drama during the making of a movie, bad reviews, bad tracking etc. It is just as useful in predicting box office as any other site is. It is a very fun game to play though. Here are links that will explain it better: http://www.hsx.com/help/ http://www.hsx.com/help/?page=glossary http://www.hsx.com/help/?page=topics Edited March 16, 2015 by grim22 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Hello all. New to the forums. Excited to talk about movies and box office. As the thread title says, could someone help me with making sense of HSX moviestock. for example, http://www.hsx.com/security/view/FAST7 What does the number mean. Does it mean it is expected to do that much at box office ? How accurate is it? Does it help in predicting box office numbers fairly accurately? Any response is welcome. I'm going to move this to the Speakeasy, which is a better place for it. grim basically summed it up well... I'd add that the current overall price for a movie (while technically what people think it will do in 4 weeks) is more accurately based on what they think the opening weekend will be, multiplied by 2.7. So, if a movie's listed at 270 million, it means HSX users collectively guess it's going to open at 100m, and then after that opening, end up around 270 million. (Often, after a movie opens bigger or smaller than expected, there'll be a collective rush to buy/sell the stock... this is especially true for franchises whose movies tend to have short legs.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I'm going to move this to the Speakeasy, which is a better place for it. grim basically summed it up well... I'd add that the current overall price for a movie (while technically what people think it will do in 4 weeks) is more accurately based on what they think the opening weekend will be, multiplied by 2.7. So, if a movie's listed at 270 million, it means HSX users collectively guess it's going to open at 100m, and then after that opening, end up around 270 million. (Often, after a movie opens bigger or smaller than expected, there'll be a collective rush to buy/sell the stock... this is especially true for franchises whose movies tend to have short legs.) And any info you can get before the masses is better. Thanks to Rth, I have made a lot of (imaginary internet) money at HSX 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 And any info you can get before the masses is better. Thanks to Rth, I have made a lot of (imaginary internet) money at HSX Ah, if only it were real money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Community Manager Water Bottle Posted March 16, 2015 Community Manager Share Posted March 16, 2015 Welcome to the forums! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marveldcfox Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 Thanks grim22 and telemachos. So if there is a steep fall in a movie's stock numbers, let's say from 150 to 100 then does that mean HSX as a whole knows something about the movie that others don't? Maybe they know what the studio feels about a particular movie? Does such a steep drop, generally spell trouble? Can a movie's stock recover after dropping steeply on HSX or becomes an uphill task? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Thanks grim22 and telemachos. So if there is a steep fall in a movie's stock numbers, let's say from 150 to 100 then does that mean HSX as a whole knows something about the movie that others don't? Maybe they know what the studio feels about a particular movie? Does such a steep drop, generally spell trouble? Can a movie's stock recover after dropping steeply on HSX or becomes an uphill task? A movie's stock can always recover till the Monday after OW. One recent example was American Sniper. The stock was priced at 125 (IIRC) before OW. Once it opened to 90M OW, the stock was adjusted to 243M (or the 2.7 adjust). Remember, HSX is not into the business of predicting how a movie will do, they are not a tracking service, they are a stock exchange. Most traders there go by their gut similar to how people here make the predictions. Welcome to the forums. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Thanks grim22 and telemachos. So if there is a steep fall in a movie's stock numbers, let's say from 150 to 100 then does that mean HSX as a whole knows something about the movie that others don't? Maybe they know what the studio feels about a particular movie? Does such a steep drop, generally spell trouble? Can a movie's stock recover after dropping steeply on HSX or becomes an uphill task? No collective entity at HSX knows anything. A few users might be like people here -- very familiar with how the box-office works. A few you could probably consider "insiders", but all they know is whatever movies or studio(s) they're associated with. It's not like all the veteran users collectively add up to anything special. Like real stock markets (probably even moreso), reactions tend to be lemming-like.... if a stock starts nosediving (maybe someone posted on a blog about a bad test screening or something), then it tends to crater quickly because everyone starts dumping it as fast as they can. Or if the reverse is true, and some long-simmering project in development gets a major director, then you'll see the stock skyrocket in a day or two. (I remember buying INTERSTELLAR around $5 the day the news broke that Nolan was taking over the project, and it just exploded into the mid-100s in no time at all.) You'll also see rapid movement right before a movie opens, especially if it looks like it'll be bigger than expected. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marveldcfox Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 (edited) Thanks a ton. Got it. It seems one can decently predict the bombs and hits of the summer taking help of hsx and general buzz surrounding the movie. Edited March 16, 2015 by marveldcfox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Thanks a ton. Got it. It seems one can decently predict the bombs and hits of the summer taking help of hsx. It's not that difficult to steadily make "money" there. Just go by your gut, follow other box-office prediction sites (like here), and don't get too risky with properties or movies you're not very familiar with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 That website always confused me, it looks interesting but I don't understand it at all and I don't really understand what grim said either I haven't a clue about how real life stock markets work, let alone a virtual one I kinda wish I did understand it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 That website always confused me, it looks interesting but I don't understand it at all and I don't really understand what grim said either I haven't a clue about how real life stock markets work, let alone a virtual one I kinda wish I did understand it though. buy real shares in Disney, in a few years time you will be thankful for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 buy real shares in Disney, in a few years time you will be thankful for it. I don't really know how stocks and shares work and tbh I don't really care, it's a part of the world I can happily live without. Anyway I live in England and I just looked on the stock exchange website, I think it's only British companies that you can buy stocks in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I don't really know how stocks and shares work and tbh I don't really care, it's a part of the world I can happily live without. Anyway I live in England and I just looked on the stock exchange website, I think it's only British companies that you can buy stocks in. Nah you just have to fill in a form, send it off and wait a few days then you can trade globally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandrew Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I understand the stock market, but this looks too confusing for me as well. I wish we had the Derby back. I placed #2 one weekend. That was my proudest time ever on BOM lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I understand the stock market, but this looks too confusing for me as well. It's easier than the stock market. Just stick to Moviestocks -- it's like investing 101. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 If only real money was involved Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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