Baumer's Summer Game - Darkelf #1, Grim22 #2, laguy03 #3..final words from baumer pg 95

[kayumanggi]

I think I'll get 14/15 but the grosses are terrible.

[Wrath]

So, it looks like She's Funny That Way is opening on Friday. Didn't we think that was gone?

[Wrath]

Looks like we can just about answer the Top 5 Lowest Grossing movies of the summer question.

 

1. D-Train

2. Me & Earl and the Dying Girl

3. Irrational Man (I'm guessing it'll pass Me & Earl, but it might not)

 

Those 3 are locked, barring a sudden expansion of Irrational Man (which would be surprising, as it just had a big expansion, and its estimated to have made less per theater this weekend than Terminator: Genesis did despite a surprisingly large amount of advertising.  Woody Allen's traditional "middle aged man suffering angst who cures it via sleeping with women half his age" shtick is proving even less attractive to audiences than usual this time).

 

Right now, the last 2 look like:

 

4. Self/Less

5. Far from the Maddening Crowd

 

They're quite close to each other and still earning money, so they could easily change order still. There are really only 2 candidates left for catching them:

 

- Underdogs - looking incredibly weak, so if it opens wide it has the possibly of sneaking in

- DragonBall Z: Resurrection 'F' - technically opened to over 600 theaters (normally the cut-off for Wide) and will probably end up low enough to be in the top 5, but because of its odd limited release structure, BOM might not consider it to have actually opened Wide

Edited August 10, 2015 by Wrath

[grim22]

^Irrational man and Me & Earl arent wide releases though. Lowest grossing doesn't count platform releases. Only movies listed as wide at the start of the game are eligible.

We had this discussion a couple of years ago when The To-Do List was listed as wide and ended up not going wide. So the only options we can choose for lowest grossing are movies which start as wide releases on April 30.

Of all the movies you listed, only "The D Train" qualifies. Will have to see which other movies were wide on that date.

[Wrath]

^Irrational man and Me & Earl arent wide releases though. Lowest grossing doesn't count platform releases. Only movies listed as wide at the start of the game are eligible.

We had this discussion a couple of years ago when The To-Do List was listed as wide and ended up not going wide. So the only options we can choose for lowest grossing are movies which start as wide releases on April 30.

Of all the movies you listed, only "The D Train" qualifies. Will have to see which other movies were wide on that date.

 

Ah, I see.  I just went with all the movies that BOM considered to have gone wide during the game. Where can you go back and look up what was wide on 4/30?

 

Since I had zero of these 5 movies on my list, I'm not arguing.

Edited August 10, 2015 by Wrath

[grim22]

Ah, I see.  I just went with all the movies that BOM considered to have gone wide during the game. Where can you go back and look up what was wide on 4/30?

 

Since I had zero of these 5 movies on my list, I'm not arguing.

 

I looked at the Internet Archive. And from there, these are the eligible movies for lowest grossing (only including actual contenders)

- Hot Pursuit

- The D Train

- Poltergeist

- Aloha

- Entourage

- Dope

- The Gallows

- Self/Less

- Shaun the Sheep

- Ricki and The Flash

 

Movies which were listed as wide releases before the game started but never made it to release:

- The Outskirts 

- Underdogs

- Before I Wake

 

No idea how Baumer wants to account for the movies which did not even meet their release date, especially since they were listed as being wide releases on April 30. Once we get more direction from Baumer, we can put together the lowest grossing 5 movies list.

[baumer]

I'll be spending the whole day tomorrow on the game.

 

Yes, the whole day.  It will be like a day of work, except it will be for the game.  There's a lot that needs to be scored and figured out.

[grim22]

Unless either UNCLE or Compton just go berserk this weekend, the top OWs are looking like

 

TOP 5 OPENING WEEKENDS:

 

1) Jurassic World

2) Avengers 2

3) Minions

4) Inside Out

5) Pitch Perfect 2

[Wrath]

I looked at the Internet Archive. And from there, these are the eligible movies for lowest grossing (only including actual contenders)

- Hot Pursuit

- The D Train

- Poltergeist

- Aloha

- Entourage

- Dope

- The Gallows

- Self/Less

- Shaun the Sheep

- Ricki and The Flash

 

Movies which were listed as wide releases before the game started but never made it to release:

- The Outskirts 

- Underdogs

- Before I Wake

 

No idea how Baumer wants to account for the movies which did not even meet their release date, especially since they were listed as being wide releases on April 30. Once we get more direction from Baumer, we can put together the lowest grossing 5 movies list.

 

Early in the competition, Baumer noted he wasn't letting people have alternate picks.  If you picked something and it got moved, then you were out of luck.  So I suspect if you had those (and I had 2 of them), then you'll be SOL.

 

From that list, looks like the top 5 will be:

 

1. D-Train (holy crap did that do badly)

2. Self-Less

3. Shaun the Sheep

4. Dope

5. Ricky (but Aloha might sneak past it)

[chasmmi]

I can't believe TOMORROWLAND is gonna sneak in, I was so right.... until I was wrong.

 

It's not even going to just sneak in. It's looking likely for about 13th place and up to 12M clear of the threshold for 15th.

 

That's just nuts

[BadAtGender]

It's not even going to just sneak in. It's looking likely for about 13th place and up to 12M clear of the threshold for 15th.

 

That's just nuts

 

Feast and famine summer.

[laguy03]

I looked at the Internet Archive. And from there, these are the eligible movies for lowest grossing (only including actual contenders)

- Hot Pursuit

- The D Train

- Poltergeist

- Aloha

- Entourage

- Dope

- The Gallows

- Self/Less

- Shaun the Sheep

- Ricki and The Flash

 

Movies which were listed as wide releases before the game started but never made it to release:

- The Outskirts 

- Underdogs

- Before I Wake

 

No idea how Baumer wants to account for the movies which did not even meet their release date, especially since they were listed as being wide releases on April 30. Once we get more direction from Baumer, we can put together the lowest grossing 5 movies list.

 

I had Underdogs & The Outskirts as 2 out of my 5 picks.

[MovieMan89]

Wasn't D Train a last minute wide release that got decided after the game started? I don't think it should count if so.

[baumer]

Ok guys, it's about 8AM here, I'll be getting to the game in a couple of hours and try do as much scoring as possible, fix stuff up and get to your questions.

[laguy03]

Wasn't D Train a last minute wide release that got decided after the game started? I don't think it should count if so.

Nope. It had been decided before the game started. Otherwise, I wouldn't have included it. I follow the rules as closely as I can and I know I double checked that.

[sakskidz]

btw i assume everyone knows the top 5 domestic opening weekend

1. jurassic

2. avengers 2

3. minions

4. inside out

5. pitch perfect 2

 

 

 

But the worldwide answers are

1. Jurassic

2. Aou

3. Inside Out

4. Minions

5. rogue nation

[grim22]

btw i assume everyone knows the top 5 domestic opening weekend

1. jurassic

2. avengers 2

3. minions

4. inside out

5. pitch perfect 2

 

 

 

But the worldwide answers are

1. Jurassic

2. Aou

3. Inside Out

4. Minions

5. rogue nation

 

Actually, it is not WW OW, it is just WW Weekend, and thanks to China, San Andreas just barely edges out Rogue Nation.

 

The WW weekend answers are:

1. Jurassic World OW - 525M

2. AOU OW - 400M

3. Minions OW - 200M

4. Inside Out OW - 130M

5. San Andreas 2nd weekend - 98M OS (thanks to China opening) + 25M Domestic = 123M WW just barely edging out Rogue Nation's 120M WW weekend.

Edited August 12, 2015 by grim22

[sakskidz]

Delete if u have to but it took me like 45 minutes to do this

Based on projections and other stuff here's what it's looking like the answers are (all of them)

Top 15 Domestically

1. jurassic
2. aou
3. inside out
4. Minions
5. pp2
6. rogue nation

7. Antman
8.San andreas

9. fury road
10.  Compton

11. spy
12. Trainwreck
13. Tomorrowland
14. Genisys
15. Ted 2


Top 10 Worldwide
1. Jurassic
2. AOU
3. Minions
4. Inside Out
5. San Andreas
6. Rogue Nation
7. Antman

8. Fury Road
9. Genisys
10. Pitch Perfect 2



Top 5 Worldwide Weekend

1. Jurassic
2. Aou
3. Inside Out
4. Minions
5. San Andreas second weekend



top 5 domestic opening weekend
1. jurassic
2. avengers 2
3. minions
4. inside out
5. pitch perfect 2


Lowest Grossing Films
1. D-Train
2. Self-Less
3. Shaun the Sheep

4. Dope
5. Aloha


 

 

Tell me, of these five films, which one will be the lowest grossing of the summer. Only these five films can you choose from.

 

1) Trainwreck

2) Southpaw

3) She's Funny That Way 

4) Aloha 21M

5) The Man From U.N.C.L.E. 

 

 

FOR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 Tell me, within 5 million dollars, what its gross will be. Anyone who calls this within 5 million dollars (note you MUST CALL THE CORRECT FILM TO QUALIFY FOR THE 5000 BONUS PTS) whether it is over or under the total, will get the 10,000 points.

 

Second Bonus Question:

 

Tell me which of these will be the highest grossing film of the summer: Only these five films.

 

1) Masterminds

2) Fantastic Four

3) Terminator Genisys 89M

4) Magic Mike XXL

 

For 10,000 POSSIBLE bonus points, tell me, within 5 million dollars, what its gross will be. Anyone who calls this within 5 million dollars (note you MUST CALL THE CORRECT FILM TO QUALIFY FOR THE 10,000 BONUS PTS) whether it is over or under the total, will get the 10,000 points.

 

 

Third Bonus Question:

 

Tell me, of these five films, which will be the highest grossing INTERNAtIONALLY (NOT WW, ONLY INTERNATIONALLY....ALL FIGURES ACCORDING TO BOXOFFICEMOJO.COM)?

 

1) Terminator Genisys 

2) San Andreas 315M

3) Mission Impossible Rogue Nation

4) Ted 2

5) Mad Max

 

For 15,000 bonus points, call the correct film within 25 mill.

 

Here are your 16 bonus questions that have to be answered before the start date.

Question 1: Will MORE than 3 films gross at least 110 million dollars Opening weekend domestically (3 day weekends count only) NO


Question 2: Will MORE than two films gross at least 50 million dollars on opening day? NO

Answer it correctly: 15,000 points
Answer it incorrectly: lose 8000 points
Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 8000 points) 3000 points.

Question 3: Will any film this summer have a worldwide weekend of more than 280 million? YES (THIS WILL INCLUDE ANY 5 DAY WEEKENDS. WHATEVER IS REPORTED FOR THE ACTUALS ON MONDAY EVENING WILL BE THE NUMBER WE GO BY). But the weekend has to fall within the summer game dates. YES

Question 4: Will any film make more than 51.5 million this summer in Australia? NO
.

Question 5: Will at least two films make more than 55 million dollars this summer in the UK box office? YES


Question 6: Will any film besides Avengers make more than 150 million in CHINA this summer? YES


Question 7: Will at least 2 films make at least a billion mill WW this summer? YES
.

Question 8: Will at least 5 films, listed as a comedy (could be sci-fi comedy...horror comedy...must have comedy listed somewhere in the genre ) by Box Office Mojo, make more than 120 million dollars this summer? NO


Question 9: Will at least 3 action films released after May, have a WW gross of more than 500 million? NO



Question 10: Which combination of films will make more money domestically?

1) Terminator, Spy, Jurassic World
2) Entourage, Spy, Hot Pursuit, Poltergeist
3) Minions, Insidious 3, Self/Less, Straight Outta Compton
4) Avengers first ten days, Magic Mike XXL


Question 11: Will any two films make more than 40 million in Russia this summer? NO


Question 12:

Will the top two films combined make more this summer than the next 5 films combined (domestic only)? So to avoid any confusion like we have last summer, the question reads like this.... top 2 spots add up to more than slots 3-7. NO


Question 13:

Will any of the top 7 grossing sequels domestically this summer have a second weekend drop of less than 47.5%? YES


Question 14:

Will Avengers, Minions or Jurassic World have a Saturday increase minus the preview number? So take out the Thursday number and you get the true Friday number. You guys know the drill. YES

 

 

Question 15:

Will Minions outgross Avengers in at least two of these regions this summer? Yes

France
Netherlands
Venezuela
Hungary


1) Will Avengers make at least 600 million domestically? NO
2) Will Avengers make more than a billion internationally? NO
3) Will Avengers do at least 25 million for previews NO
4)) Will Avengers make at least 1.8 billion WW? NO



17) Note*** Jurassic World does not qualify for this question
A) Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com gross more than 100 million dollars this summer? NO
B  Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com open to more than 35 mill? NO
C) Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com have a second weekend drop of less than 47%? YES
D) Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com have an opening day of more than 13 mill? NO


I'll give you a number, you tell me if Avengers will gross more or less than that number in said markets.

1) Russia: 42M LESS
2) Germany: 31.5M LESS
3) Portugal: 3M LESS
4) China: 200M MORE



Will Jurassic World and F7 combine to make more than Avengers in these markets?

1) Japan YES 
2) United Kingdom YES
3) Columbia Yes (avengers wasnt released in columbia)
4) Mexico Yes 

1) How many films will gross at least 100 million dollars this summer? You have a cushion of 1 film. So if you are off by 1, you still get full points. 12
2) How many films will make a billion dollars this summer? No cushion 3
3) What will the domestic total gross be for the top 3 horror films of the summer. II don't want to see anything but a number in your answer. Do not list the films. Cushion of 50 mill.  135 Million
4) How many films will gross at least 40 million opening day? No cushion 3
5) How many films will make at least 500 million internationally? cushion of 1. 3
6) Will Terminator Genisys and Pitch Perfect 2 and Insidious 3 combine to gross more than F7 domestically? NO
7) Will Ted 2 make more than Ted? No
8) Will Tele love Mad Max and will baumer love Jurassic World? You must answer both. This is an honour system question. I will tell you right now that I think i will love Jurassic World. Yes for both
9) Will any film released in August gross 100 mill before the end of the game? YES
10) Will Self/Less make more than 40 million? NO
11) How many films will make at least 750 million WW? 1 cushion 3
12) How many films will make at least 30 million OD? 1 cushion 4
13) Will Magic Mike XXL have a bigger opening day than Terminator genisys? For friday NO but it technically opened on a wednesday so YES
14) Will Pan be one of the top 7 grossing films of the summer domestically? NO (didnt open in time)
15) Will Ant Man gross at least 500 mill WW? No
16) Will any film gross 250 million in China? NO
17) Will any film have a WW weekend of more than 300 million (Avengers will only count from the time the game starts) YES
18) Will Mission Impossible gross more than 200 million? NO
19) Will Vacation gross more than 70 million? NO
20) How many films will gross at least 305 million this summer? 4 domestically 9 worldwide
21) Will Avengers gross more than the first one? NO
22) Will any film besides Avengers make 25 million in Spain? YES
23) Will any film besides Avengers make 65 million in the UK? NO
24) Will Entourage make 100 mill or more? NO
25) Will Avengers drop less than 55% second weekend? YES

Edited August 28, 2015 by avi

[sakskidz]

thats everything it took me an hour so any mistakes im sorry also some are projections if the film hasnt come out any mistakes u can let me know but im tired now

[baumer]

Thanks Avi,

 

I did a bunch of scoring yesterday and I'm doing more tonight.  I'll be giving it all to jajang to add to the totals.