chasmmi Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Last Week's answers: 1. Will Star Wars gross more than $100M this weekend? Yes 2. Will Star Wars gross more than $130m this weekend? 3000 Yes 3. Will the 5 biggest new entries' combined grosses exceed 50% of Star Wars' weekend? Yes 4. What will be the highest grossing new entry (new, not expanding)? 2000 Daddy's Home 5. Will Sisters drop more than 15% this weekend? No 6. Will at least 4 films increase this weekend? 2000 No 7. Will Point Break open to more than $9.5M? Yes 8. Will Good Dinosaur stay in the top 10? No 9. Will Hunger Games stay above Creed? Yes 10. Will Hateful 8 gross at least 10 times the gross of Revenant this weekend? 3000 No 11. Will the Big Short Increase into the top 3? 2000 No 12. Will Concussion open higher than Joy? No 13. Will Alvin stay in the top 5? 3000 Yes 14. Will Star Wars' PTA be higher than Revenant's? No 15. Will I have marked the previous 2 weeks' questions before Xmas hits? Jajang did 10/15 - 2000 11/15 - 3000 12/15 - 5000 13/15 - 7000 14/15 - 10000 15/15 - 15000 Part 2 1. What will be the difference in gross between 1st and 2nd this weekend? 5000 $110,460,000 2. What will Krampus' Xmas Day gross be? 5000 875,470k 3. What will Concussion and Point Break's combined Saturday gross be? 5000 $7,099,000 4. What will Alvin's percentage change be this weekend (please specify drop or increase)? 5000 -8% 5. What will Hateful 8's PTA be this weekend? 5000 $46,107 Part 3 2. Daddy's Home 4. Sisters 6. Big Short 9. Mockingjay 12. The Good Dinosaur 15. Bajairo Mastani 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Weekly results (I think, this damn flu won't go away and now it's removing my hearing also which is annoying) Name Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Total Exxdee 22000 6000 8000 36000 damienRoc 20000 0 13000 33000 filmovie 20000 0 8000 28000 misafeco 20000 5000 8000 28000 Blankments 19000 5000 4000 28000 Dajk 25000 0 2000 27000 kayumanggi 22000 0 4000 26000 bcf26 16000 6000 4000 26000 jajang 20000 0 2000 22000 Kalo 19000 0 2000 21000 Avi 13000 5000 2000 20000 Darkelf 20000 0 0 20000 Wrathofhan 17000 0 2000 19000 Wrath 16000 0 2000 18000 background 15000 0 2000 17000 infernus 14000 0 2000 16000 Telemachos 11000 0 4000 15000 Chasmmi 11000 0 2000 13000 Grey Ghost 11000 0 2000 13000 MikeKaye42 8000 0 0 8000 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Logic puzzle for all of you: How am I apparently so awesome that predicting weekend box office actions about a week in advance that usually at least 30% of these questions go closer to the wire than anybody would like them too, yet I am also so bad at this that I am consistently coming near last every week since thanksgiving and before 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 SOTM is up too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Considering I completely forgot to answer one of the questions, I'll call this a successful week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 On 12/27/2015 at 6:16 PM, Exxdee said: couldn't PM, but I should have 5,000 for SOTM 5 (the Star Wars Presales one), I answered Spectre. sorry, but thanks for the scoring apologies... fixing it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Updated Scores Includes Week 11 & fixed SOTM 5 scores (mainly for Exxdee who has now shot out in front) # User Pre- season Entry GRAND TOTAL PreSeason Total SOTM Total SOTM 5 Weekly's Total Week 11 1 Exxdee YES 354,000 10000 46000 5000 298000 36000 2 darkelf YES 335,000 10000 51000 20000 274000 20000 3 Infernus YES 329,000 10000 33000 5000 286000 16000 4 Telemachos YES 325,000 10000 43000 20000 272000 15000 5 DamienRoc YES 316,000 10000 48000 20000 258000 33000 6 DAJK YES 302,000 10000 18000 5000 274000 27000 7 Filmovie YES 299,000 0 35000 5000 264000 28000 8 Movieman89 YES 296,000 10000 49000 20000 237000 0 9 chasmmi YES 277,000 10000 42000 20000 225000 13000 10 thatoneguy (Background Char) YES 277,000 10000 40000 5000 227000 17000 11 glassfairy YES 275,000 10000 40000 5000 225000 0 12 kayumanggi YES 274,000 0 21000 20000 253000 26000 13 grey ghost YES 270,000 10000 39000 7000 221000 13000 14 WrathofHan YES 269,000 10000 14000 10000 245000 19000 15 misafeco YES 266,000 10000 8000 10000 248000 28000 16 Wrath YES 266,000 10000 26000 5000 230000 18000 17 Jajang (JJ-8) YES 260,000 10000 22000 20000 228000 22000 18 Blankments (Blan Solo) YES 259,000 10000 10000 15000 239000 28000 19 MikeKaye42 YES 207,000 10000 15000 20000 182000 8000 20 avi (Sakskidz) YES 186,000 10000 -8000 20000 184000 20000 21 bcf26 YES 146,000 10000 8000 0 128000 26000 22 Kalo YES 139,000 10000 8000 0 121000 21000 23 99 Trees YES 49,000 10000 -3000 0 42000 0 24 Alfred YES 39,000 10000 5000 0 24000 0 25 BastienGiot - 29,000 0 -3000 0 32000 0 26 Baumer YES 7,000 10000 -3000 0 0 0 27 laguy03 YES 7,000 10000 -3000 0 0 0 28 The Panda YES 7,000 10000 -3000 0 0 0 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Damn, tied with Chasmmi! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 31/12/2015 at 1:50 PM, ThatOneGuy said: Damn, tied with Chasmmi! What's that supposed to mean? And hey, somebody needs to fail alongside me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 Current top 15 as of December 27th (thanks to Laguy's thread): Current Top 15 Films of Winter (as of 12.27.15): 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $540,058,914 2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 – $264,540,685 3. Spectre - $196,274,955 4. The Peanuts Movie - $127,586,788 5. The Good Dinosaur - $105,350,933 6. Creed - $96,141,653 7. Goosebumps - $78,585,158 8. Bridge of Spies - $70,286,589 9. The Night Before - $42,762,601 10. Krampus - $40,458,690 11. Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip - $39,848,982 12. Daddy’s Home - $38,740,203 13. Sisters - $37,455,995 14. Crimson Peak - $31,090,320 15. The Last Witch Hunter - $27,356,090 With the game only having about 7/8 weeks left, let's extrapolate which films stand a shot at the top 15... Creed will have passed 100M by the end of the weekend I expect so it is down to 7th and below to fight for the other positions I think. Top 6 are safe. Starting with films still in cinemas (and making money worth thinking about): Chipmunks - Now at 52.3M and showing good legs as the only kids film of the holidays (sorry Dino, you are done ). It will be well past 60 after this weekend is done and so Bridge of Spies is a done deal I would say with goosebumps also about 75% likely. Daddy's Home - Already at 58.8M, Going to pass goosebumps by Monday even if it crashes this weekend I expect. Looks locked for top 15, only question is which position it ends. Sisters - Now at 46.8m, this opened higher than Alvin but is dropping harder, especially with Daddy's Home competition. I don't see this catching Goosebumps, touch and go if it passes Spies IMO. Joy, Concussion, Big Short and Point Break are all below Sisters in the Dailies and are also at least 20M behind its total to date. Don't see any of them passing 60M now. So let's see how things stand with the current releases expanded (I know there are technically 2 more films in release to discuss ;)... 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $9B 2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 – $264,540,685 3. Spectre - $196,274,955 4. The Peanuts Movie - $127,586,788 5. The Good Dinosaur - $115M? 6. Daddy's Home - $110? 7. Creed - $110M? 8. Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip - $80M? 9. Goosebumps - $78,585,158 10. Bridge of Spies - $70,286,589 11. Sisters - $68-70M? 12. Joy - 57M 13. Big Short - 45M 14. Night Before - 42.7M 15. Krampus - 40M Right How about Revenant and Hateful 8? Hateful 8 is just going wide now and has already passed 10M as of Wednesday. BO.com has it hitting 42.7M by the end of the weekend after a 25M 3 day weekend. Even if we cut that down to 20M it's going to be at about 37.5M and a multiplier from that low W/E figure even as low as Kill Bill Vol 1 (lowest non-grindhouse multy) which was an April release puts Hateful 8 finishing at 78-79M so this is passing Goosebumps at a worst case scenario. Revenant is harder to call right now as it is only in 4 theatres still but this has a mighty impressive PTA and DiCaprio. it's hard to see this not break 100M. So how is that list looking? 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $47t 2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 – $264,540,685 3. Spectre - $196,274,955 4. The Peanuts Movie - $127,586,788 5. The Good Dinosaur - $115M? 6. Daddy's Home - $110? 7. Hateful 8 - 110M? 8. Creed - $110M? 9. The Revenant - 100M? 10. Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip - $80M? 11. Goosebumps - $78,585,158 12. Bridge of Spies - $70,286,589 13. Sisters - $68-70M? 14. Joy - 57M 15. Big Short - 45M Phew this is getting long, well done if still reading this. So now the bar is set at a minimum of Sisters/Bridge of Spies I think with just the new releases to go which are: (I will bold films that have at least a shot of passing the above Sisters total [IMO ]) The Forest - not making $68M+ The Masked Saint - not making $68M+ 13 Hours - BO.com has it making 60M, I think it has an outside shot at 70M but just an outside one Norm of the North - not making $68M+ Ride Along 2 - 70M is the floor for this it seems. Probably beating Goosebumps at worst. The 5th Wave - not making $68M+ The Boy - not making $68M+ Dirty Grandpa - BO.com says 42M, but being the first comedy Fifty Shades of Black - not making $68M+ Finest Hours - not making $68M+ Jane got a gun - not making $68M+ Kung Fu Panda - Something has to go very wrong for this to miss crossing 80 or even 90M as a floor. Choice - not making $68M+ Hail Caeser - not making $68M+ PAPW/Zombies - not making $68M+ Deadpool - Personally I think there's more chance this passes Sisters in its OW than not passing it at all even with just 2 weekends. How to be Single - not making $68M+ Zoolander 2 - I don't see this getting to $68M in 10 days, sorry So in my eyes there are a total of 5 unreleased films that could pass Sisters/BOS. This puts my projected top 15 at the end of the game at: 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $1.7Gaz 2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 – $264,540,685 3. Spectre - $196,274,955 4. Kung Fu panda 3 - 135M? 5. The Peanuts Movie - $127,586,788 6. The Good Dinosaur - $115M? 7. Deadpool - $115M? 8. Daddy's Home - $110? 9. Hateful 8 - 110M? 10. Creed - $110M? 11. Ridealong 2 - 100M? 12. The Revenant - 100M? 13. Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip - $80M? 14. Goosebumps - $78,585,158 15. Bridge of Spies - $70,286,589 16. Sisters - $68-70M? 17. 13 Hours - 65M 18. Dirty Grandpa - 60M 19. Joy - $57M 20. Zoolander - 50M 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 Disclaimer for the above: I am very bad at this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 Ok let's look at some preseason questions: A generous risk-free question to start you off: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones domestically by the end of the game: A: 100M B: 200M C: 300M D: 400M Each correctly predicted film scores you 10,000 points, get all four correct and receive 10,000 bonus points for 50k total. (This is the only preseason question where there is no penalty for being wrong so enjoy it). CANNOT BE SCORED 1) Tell me which of these will be the highest grossing film of the winter domestically: 1) Goosebumps 2) Krampus3) Creed - Creed has this sewn up, but gross bonus is hard to place still. looking at about 110M+? 4) Concussion Answer correctly: 10,000 points Answer incorrectly: -5,000 points State that you abstain: 3,000 points Correctly predict the films gross to within 10M and receive a 10,000 point bonus. 2) Tell me which of these will be the lowest grossing film of the winter domestically: 1) Point Break 2) The Nut Job 2 - wasn't released so players who guess this get abstain points. 3) Victor Frankenstein - This is locked in now and the gross is $5.77M so anyone prediction $15.77 or less gets the bonus. 4) The Last Witch Hunter Answer correctly: 10,000 points Answer incorrectly: -5,000 points State that you abstain: 3,000 points Correctly predict the films gross to within 10M and receive a 10,000 point bonus. 3) Will at least 3 films make more than 300M domestically by the end of the game? Waiting on that pride and prejudice breakout... nope, this is a NO Answer correctly: 15,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points State that you abstain: 3,000 points 4) Will animated films combine to make more than 500M domestically by the end of the game? (Chipmunks is not considered animated here)Good Dino (110) + Peanuts (128) means KFP3 needs to make 250M in 3 weeks to avoid a NO Answer correctly: 15,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points State that you abstain: 3,000 points 5) Will at least 2 films make more than 140M OW domestic? Deadpool Yeah this is done too, NO Answer correctly: 15,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points State that you abstain: 3,000 points 6) Will any film in the top 15 domestic have its domestic total outgrossed by its Chinese total? I need to track China in a bit and check up on this question so far. Of course KFP3 is the big factor here if it is currently a no. Answer correctly: 15,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points State that you abstain: 3,000 points 7) Will at least two months’ OW records be broken by the end of the game? (This is 3 day only) This probably all comes down to whether Deadpool does something crazy. Answer correctly: 20,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points State that you abstain: 4,000 points 8) Will at least 2 of the 5 top grossing sequels/prequels/reboots become the top grossing film of their franchise by the end of the game? Star Wars is done, Can Creed leg its way past Rocky 4? Can KFP3 hit 215M, can Deadpool pass 180M? There are too many outside bets to call this yet. Answer correctly: 20,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points State that you abstain: 4,000 points 9) Will at least 5 different films in the top 15 be nominated for Oscars in either Acting, Best Song, Best Director, Best Screenplay or Best Animation or Best Film? We find out later Answer correctly: 20,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points State that you abstain: 4,000 points 10) Will the combined gross of the top 2 films domestic exceed 1 Billion Dollars? tough one this will happen by Monday at worst. Answer correctly: 20,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points State that you abstain: 4,000 points 11) Will 300M dollars be closer to Kung Fu Panda 3’s Domestic total or its Chinese total? no idea yet Answer correctly: 25,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points State that you abstain: 5,000 points 12) Will any foreign film gross more money (in dollars) in its local market than the 15th highest grosser domestically does in the USA? This will be fun to research. Has any film made at least $80M in its local market. I'm assuming I severely underestimated Chinese winter releases with this one Answer correctly: 25,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points State that you abstain: 5,000 points 13) Will any film be pulled from the schedules at any point during the game due to fear of war with North Korea? Come on Kim, you're slacking! Yeah this is points for everyone Answer correctly: 25,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points State that you abstain: 5,000 points 14) Will any film opening in less than 500 theatres in its opening week, go on to gross more than 200M dollars domestically? All down to Revenant breaking out now I think. Answer correctly: 25,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points State that you abstain: 5,000 points 15) Which combination of films will gross the most amount of money domestically during the game? Unless KFP3 does $850M... 1) Mockingjay Pt 2, Bridge of Spies, The Night Before, In Heart of the Sea - about $425M and done 2) Spectre, The Good Dinosaur, The Hateful Eight, Krampus - about $340M and counting 3) Crimson Peak, Peanuts, Kung Fu Panda 3, Goosebumps, - about $210 and counting4) Star Wars, The Revenant, The Danish Girl, Zoolander 2 - about $650 and counting Answer correctly: 30,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points State that you abstain: 5,000 points 16) Which combination of films will gross the smallest amount of money during the game? 4 is out of the reckoning, it's going to hit $200M+, it's down to 1 or 2, so the question is will Ride Along and the rest of Point Break make at least $45M more than PAPW/Zombies and the rest of Alvin? I think we can't call this yet. 1) Burnt, Macbeth, Alvin and the Chipmunks, Pride and Prejudice and Zombies - at about $68M and counting 2) Rock the Kasbah, Victor Frankenstein, Point Break, Ride Along 2 - at about 23M and counting3) Jem and the Holograms, Sisters, The Nut Job 2, 13 Hours: Secret Soldiers of Benzhagi - counts as abstaining 4) Trumbo, Scout Guide to Apocalypse, Deadpool, Daddy’s Home - at 112.4 and counting Answer correctly: 30,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points State that you abstain: 5,000 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 So that means, when I have the time to do it, the following Preseason questions can be scored now: 2, 3, 5, 10, 13, 15 (and probably 12 if I go look in the China Box Office Thread). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 Do not want to score this one until every question can be answered but current state of it is... And Finally… The Return of the Jedi-centric questions: 1) Will Star Wars Gross over 400M domestically? YES 2) Will Star Wars Gross over 500M domestically? YES 3) Will Star Wars Gross over 600M domestically? YES 4) Will Star Wars Gross over 1B Worldwide? YES 5) Will Star Wars Gross over 1.5B Worldwide? YES 6) Will Star Wars finish top of all 3 main prediction charts? YES 7) Will 350M dollars end up being closer to Star Wars’ Opening Weekend total than its final domestic total? OPENING WEEKEND 8) If both are released before February 5th, will Star Wars’ China total be within 150M of Kung Fu Pandas’ (over or under) UNKNOWN 9) Will Star Wars end up being one of the three highest rated Star Wars films on RottenTomatoes at the end of the game? YES 10) Will Star Wars have a domestic weekend increase at any point during the game? NOT YET 11) Will Star Wars get nominated for at least 3 Oscars? UNKNOWN 12) Will Star Wars manage at least 3 domestic weekends that are higher than Avatar’s comparative weekend totals in 2009/2010? IF IT MAKES 68.5m THIS WEEKEND THEN THIS IS YES 13) Will Star Wars manage at least 7 domestic weekends that are higher than Titanic’s comparative weekend totals in 1997/1998? NEEDS TO STAY ABOVE 30m FOR 5 MORE WEEKENDS INCLUDING THIS ONE 14) Will Star Wars gross more domestically in December than it does in January? IF THIS ENDS UP BEING NO 15) Will Star Wars be number 1 at the domestic Box Office for at least 5 weeks (consecutive or non-consecutive) NEEDS 2 MORE AFTER THIS ONE 16) Will Star Wars’ combined total dollar gross from the UK and Australia exceed its domestic Opening Weekend total? I'M JUST ASSUMING I DON'T NEED TO CHECK THIS 17) Will Star Wars achieve more than 10 Million admissions in South Korea? NOT GOING TO GET CLOSE 18) Will China account for at least 20% of Star Wars’ worldwide total if released before February 1st? IT'G GOING TO NEED TO MAKE CLOSE TO 400M MINIMUM 19) Will Star Wars’ opening day (including previews) be enough for it to make the top 15 domestic regardless of its subsequent box office? YES 20) Will Star Wars still be in the domestic top 10 at the end of the game? UNKNOWN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Yeah 12 of Preason is done. Mojin is close to 200m already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, Infernus said: Yeah 12 of Preason is done. Mojin is close to 200m already. Foreign films don't count, right? Just domestic ones that're released overseas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said: Foreign films don't count, right? Just domestic ones that're released overseas. But the question itself is specifically asking for foreign film... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, Infernus said: But the question itself is specifically asking for foreign film... Never mind, I was thinking about a different question. Carry on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I thought I did really bad in the preason questions but looks like I did ok. I just got wrong in nearly all the questions which need optimism for a Yes for I was 'mahnamahna' level optimistic and everything but Star Wars (which, it turns out, is the only one where my prediction in all three charts was below the average prediction ) flopped or didn't breakout.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Looking at my personal scores: F: 1. CORRECT (won't get a bonus unless Creed can get to 140M lol) 10k 2. INCORRECT 5k 3. ABSTAIN 8k 4. INCORRECT -2k 5. INCORRECT -12k 10. CORRECT 8k 12. ABSTAIN 13k 13. CORRECT 38k 15. CORRECT 68k 16. INCORRECT 43k Total points from F so far: 43K Wow, that's a hell lot better than I expected. Star Wars: 1. CORRECT 5k 2. CORRECT 10k 3. CORRECT 15k 4. CORRECT 20k 5. CORRECT 25k 6. CORRECT 30k 7. CORRECT 35k 9. CORRECT 40k 12. CORRECT 45k 14. CORRECT 50k 17. CORRECT 55k 19. CORRECT 60k 103k total combined for the questions that can be answered, should help soften the blow for the gigantic losses on DOM grosses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...