BOT User Tracking 12/25-27 Big Short (wide), Concussion, Daddy's Home, Joy, Point Break,

[MovieMan89]

Gonna go low here. SW is too dominant and there are 5 new wide releases here, most without a whole lot of appeal. This is a recipe for disaster. 

 

Daddy's Home: $14.5m

Joy: $10.5m

Concussion: $9m

The Big Short: $7.5m

Point Break: $3.5m (bombs away!!!!!!)

[department store basement]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Big Short: $7.5m

 

Worse than 47 Ronin? Really???

[Wrath]

Big Short 11.9M

Concussion 7.8M

Daddy's Home 13.8M

Joy 10.1M

Point Break 6.5M

[TalismanRing]

Big Short: $8.2m

Concussion: $8.5m

Daddy's Home: $18m

Joy: $12m

Point Break: $8m

Edited December 23, 2015 by TalismanRing

[filmlover]

Yeah, Point Break is being set up to be a really dismal X-Mas day opener. There isn't any visibility or curiosity for it...well, anywhere. I'm reminded of The Darkest Hour, another completely starless, somewhat low-rent looking action/thriller released on a packed frame that bombed, so expecting similar numbers here seems like a good choice.

Edited December 23, 2015 by filmlover

[PanaMovie]

Joy - 15.9M

Concussion - 12.5M

Point Break - 13.0M

Daddys Home - 15.5M

The Big Short - 12M

[department store basement]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, Point Break is being set up to be a really dismal X-Mas day opener. There isn't any visibility or curiosity for it...well, anywhere. I'm reminded of The Darkest Hour, another completely starless, somewhat low-rent looking action/thriller released on a packed frame that bombed, so expecting similar numbers here seems like a good choice.

 

In case you were replying to my "Worse than 47 Ronin?" post I was referring to your Big Short prediction.

 

In case you weren't, I apologize.

Edited December 23, 2015 by department store basement

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, department store basement said:

 

In case you were replying to my "Worse than 47 Ronin?" post I was referring to your Big Short prediction.

 

In case you weren't, I apologize.

I was replying to the overall consensus that Point Break is a big bomb waiting to happen. Which it is.

 

As for The Big Short, I dunno. The reviews are pretty good and the cast sure is appealing but I'm not sensing too much interest, guessing because the subject matter just doesn't seem very appealing to a lot of people despite the movie taking a semi-comical spin. Anything above $12M over the weekend for it would be pretty good IMO but who knows.

[Wrath]

While last week a lot of folks were chickening out on making a predict on a movie so far away from most modeling data (and didn't spare the bandwidth to look at the other new releases), I suspect this week is daunting the predictors for entirely different reasons. 5 new wide films (including The Big Short), Star Wars on pace for a gigantic second weekend, and Sisters and Alvin carrying over reasonably well makes for a really chaotic weekend to predict. I'm sympathetic to their plight.

 

Looking at the other sites predicts, I kinda get the feeling that Deadline, Variety and Entertainment weekly all got their data from the same person, then each tweaked things very slightly based on their own opinions (Variety bumping Joy down slightly, and Deadline bumping Daddy's Home up slightly). Hopefully we can do better than that random person.

 

Our predicts are fairly consistent between the movies, with Big Short, Concussion, and Joy all pretty close, Daddy's Home a bit higher and Point Break a bit lower. The distributions are very similar as well, as the Ratios for everything but Concussion were between 23.59% and 26.85% which is weirdly tight for 4 movies with modestly different predicted openings. Concussions is much higher at 38.37%. I wonder if some folks think the fairly negative publicity around the film will pull it down, but others figure any publicity is good publicity and will over serve to increase foot traffic.

 

As usual, I went through the various predicts (17 for Big Short, 18 for everything else. As an aside, I forgot to list how many predictors we had last week. It was 27 for all 3 movies) and here's what we ended up with:

 

Big Short

Mean: 15.3M

Median: 15.9M

StnDev: 3.62M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.59%

High: 25M

Low: 8.2M

 

BO.com 14M

Deadline 8M

ScreenRant.com  

Variety 8M

Entertainment Weekly: 8M

 

Concussion

Mean: 14.5M

Median: 13.5M

StnDev: 5.57M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 38.37%

High: 29M

Low: 7.8M

 

BO.com 12.5M 

Deadline 9M

ScreenRant.com  

Variety 9M

Entertainment Weekly 9

 

Daddy's Home

Mean: 18.2M

Median: 18.8M

StnDev: 4.48M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 34.65%

High: 28M

Low: 7M

 

BO.com 18M

Deadline 22.5M

ScreenRant.com 18M  

Variety 21M

Entertainment Weekly 21M

 

Joy

Mean: 15.9M

Median: 15.6M

StnDev: 3.97M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 25.00%

High: 23M

Low: 10.1M

 

BO.com 17M

Deadline 14M

ScreenRant.com  

Variety 11M

Entertainment Weekly 14M

 

Point Break

Mean: 8.7M

Median: 9M

StnDev: 2.33M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 26.85%

High: 13M

Low: 3.5M

 

BO.com 9.5M

Deadline 16M

ScreenRant.com  

Variety 16M

Entertainment Weekly 16M

[Fancyarcher]

The Big Short - 14m

 

Concussion - 10m

 

Daddys Home - 17m

 

Joy - 11m

 

Point Break - 7

[Wrath]

Sorry for the delay, lots of travel and family and holiday stuff, etc. but I'm finally getting to it.

 

Big Short (wide)

Prediction: 15.3M +/- 3.62M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 10.5M (off by 4.8M, so 1.34 stndev)

Ow. Off to a poor start. Basically everyone else predicted 8, except BO.com who went high with 14. We were highest of all, and thus crashed hardest of all. Best predict was me at 11.9M.

 

Concussion

Prediction: 14.5M +/- 5.57M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 10.5M (off by 4.0M, so 0.72 stndev)

Wide variety in our predicts gave us a big stndev, making this result a little more acceptable. Everyone else predicted 9, except BO.com who went high with 12.5M. We were again highest of all and crashed hardest of all. Best predict was a tie between Alli and mahnamahna who both predicted 10M.

 

Daddy's Home

Prediction: 18.2M +/- 4.48M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 38.7M (off by 20.5M, so 4.59 stndev)

Heh.  Our 4th worst predict, ever (and just a hair behind Paper Towns for being in the top 3), although everyone else missed it too and we were just in the middle of the pack. Best predict was a not particularly close but still closest 28M, again by mahnamahna.

 

Joy

Prediction: 15.9M +/- 3.97M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 17M (off by 1.1M, so 0.28 stndev)

That's more like it. Very solid predict, and the second best predict after BO.com who nailed it at 17. Best predict was by CoolEric258 at 17M.

 

Point Break

Prediction: 8.7M +/- 2.33M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 9.8M (off by 1.1M, so 0.48 stndev)

Another good predict, albeit again not quite as good as BO.com who had a great week and predicted 9.5M. Our closest predict was almost, but not quite, a tie as Spaghetti predicted an even 9.8M while Blankments predicted 9.863M. The actual was 9.80M, handing it narrowly to Spaghetti.

Edited January 5, 2016 by Wrath