Best Animated Feature - 2016: Zootopia, Moana, Kubo, Zucchini, Red Turtle

[cannastop]

Now that Trump won the presidency, Zootopia is 100% guaranteed to get the Oscar.

[CoolioD1]

i can't see it having an effect on the toon picture oscar really. moana doesn't seem like a winner but i can see it being zoo, or kubo, or red turtle. lbr though you're right bcos most voters who aren't in the animation branch couldn't give less of a shit about this award so they'll blindly check the disney movie on their ballot. that's how this award works.

Edited November 9, 2016 by CoolioD1

[cannastop]

11 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i can't see it having an effect on the toon picture oscar really. moana doesn't seem like a winner but i can see it being zoo, or kubo, or red turtle. lbr though you're right bcos most voters who aren't in the animation branch couldn't give less of a shit about this award so they'll blindly check the disney movie on their ballot. that's how this award works.

Zootopia was already the frontrunner because it was clearly Disney's darling. Now all ambiguity is out the window.

 

Plus, many voters are going to think "Oh, wasn't Zootopia that cute movie that was anti-racism? Probably should go with that."

Edited November 9, 2016 by cannastop

[Jason]

Every single year where a smaller film like Kubo or The Red Turtle has won, it was a clear frontrunner in terms of critical reception. (No other film being statistically tied in terms of average RT rating, treating the critic ratings as individual samples.) In four of the six years thus far lacking a single critical reception frontrunner, the film with the highest domestic box office has won. In three of those six years a Disney-distributed film won. It's worth noting though that was no Disney film nominated in one of the two years where a Disney film didn't win, and multiple Disney-distributed films in two of the years where a Disney film did win.

 

Here's a full table listing previous nominees, with their domestic box office takes, average RT ratings, and distributor. Winning films, highest box office, and highest RT ratings (including statistical ties) are in bold.

Quote

Title	Year	Dom BO	RT avg	Dist.
Shrek	2001	$267.7	7.7	DW
Monsters, Inc.	2001	$255.9	8.0	Disney
Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius	2001	$80.9	6.4	Par.
Spirited Away	2002	$10.1	8.6	Disney
Lilo & Stitch	2002	$145.8	7.3	Disney
Ice Age	2002	$176.4	6.8	Fox
Treasure Planet	2002	$38.2	6.5	Disney
Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron	2002	$73.3	6.4	DW
Finding Nemo	2003	$339.7	8.7	Disney
The Triplets of Belleville	2003	$7.0	8.2	SPC
Brother Bear	2003	$85.3	5.5	Disney
The Incredibles	2004	$261.4	8.3	Disney
Shrek 2	2004	$441.2	7.7	DW
Shark Tale	2004	$160.9	5.2	DW
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit	2005	$56.1	8.1	DW
Howl's Moving Castle	2005	$4.7	7.5	Disney
Corpse Bride	2005	$53.4	7.2	WB
Happy Feet	2006	$198.0	6.9	WB
Cars	2006	$244.1	6.9	Disney
Monster House	2006	$73.7	6.8	Sony
Ratatouille	2007	$206.4	8.4	Disney
Persepolis	2007	$4.4	8.1	SPC
Surf's Up	2007	$58.9	6.7	Sony
WALL-E	2008	$223.8	8.5	Disney
Kung Fu Panda	2008	$215.4	7.2	P/DW
Bolt	2008	$114.1	7.2	Disney
Up	2009	$293.0	8.7	Disney
Fantastic Mr. Fox	2009	$21.0	7.9	Fox
Coraline	2009	$75.3	7.8	Focus
The Secret of Kells	2009	$0.7	7.6	GK
The Princess and the Frog	2009	$104.4	7.4	Disney
Toy Story 3	2010	$415.0	8.9	Disney
The Illusionist	2010	#N/A	8.0	#N/A
How To Train Your Dragon	2010	$217.6	7.9	P/DW
Rango	2011	$123.5	7.6	Par.
Chico & Rita	2011	$0.4	7.6	GK
Kung Fu Panda 2	2011	$165.2	6.9	P/DW
Puss in Boots	2011	$149.3	6.8	P/DW
A Cat in Paris	2011	$0.3	6.8	GK
Brave	2012	$237.3	7.0	Disney
Frankenweenie	2012	$35.3	7.6	Disney
Wreck-it Ralph	2012	$189.4	7.5	Disney
ParaNorman	2012	$56.0	7.3	Focus
The Pirates! Band of Misfits	2012	$31.1	7.2	Sony
Frozen	2013	$400.7	7.7	Disney
Ernest & Celestine	2013	$0.3	8.2	GK
The Wind Rises	2013	$5.2	7.9	Disney
Despicable Me 2	2013	$368.1	6.6	Uni.
The Croods	2013	$187.2	6.5	Fox
Big Hero 6	2014	$222.5	7.3	Disney
Song of the Sea	2014	$0.9	8.4	GK
The Tale of Princess Kayuga	2014	#N/A	8.3	#N/A
How to Train Your Dragon 2	2014	$177.0	7.8	Fox
The Boxtrolls	2014	$50.8	7.0	Focus
Inside Out	2015	$356.5	8.9	Disney
Anomalisa	2015	$3.8	8.4	Par.
Shaun the Sheep Movie	2015	$19.4	8.1	LGF
Boy and the World	2015	#N/A	7.8	#N/A
When Marnie Was There	2015	$0.6	7.5	GK

 

This year will lack a single critical reception frontrunner unless Your Name ends up with an average final rating of about 8.9 (very unlikely, no other film even has a chance). Unless Finding Dory gets a nomination (quite possible), Zootopia will be the expected winner anyway based purely on the aforementioned past patterns. That being said, I do think Zootopia's chances are further increased by the fact that it is clearly Disney's favourite, as well as how topical it has turned out to be. (I'm always a little hesitant about 100% though. @cannastop gets a like for guts.)

Edited November 10, 2016 by Jason
fixed grosses to those of original release

[cannastop]

Gold Derby has Expert predictions for Best Animated Feature!

 

http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/oscars-nominations-2017/animated-feature/sort/recent/

 

16 out of 19 experts have Zootopia as the #1 pick.

 

 

Edited November 10, 2016 by cannastop

[BadAtGender]

@Jason your chart isn't entirely correct, as a few of those movies had re-releases well after their oscar runs. Most notably, Monsters, Inc. had a lower gross than Shrek; it only passed it with the 3D release a few years ago. Same deal with Finding Nemo. How that affects your thesis, though... *shrug*

[Jason]

9 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

@Jason your chart isn't entirely correct, as a few of those movies had re-releases well after their oscar runs. Most notably, Monsters, Inc. had a lower gross than Shrek; it only passed it with the 3D release a few years ago. Same deal with Finding Nemo. How that affects your thesis, though... *shrug*

 

Thanks, I did take that into account when drawing my conclusions (which aren't affected for that post, but would have been affected the post a few pages back). The chart above is mostly automatically generated because I'm lazy and I'll just pull the values from a BOM table using VLOOKUP. But I figured stuff out in the chart I posted previously, and forgot this chart would have had some of wrong values. I'll fix it. 

 

Edit: Now fixed.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Jason

[Jason]

On 11/4/2016 at 6:18 AM, eXtacy said:

83 on Metacritic, 4 reviews

100% RT at 8.5, 6 reviews

8.9 on IMDB with 4000 ratings

9.39 on MAL, ranked #1 of all anime, with 54000 ratings

 

Another review for Your Name has been added to RT as of yesterday, average now at 8.6.

 

I know it's still early, but I actually think that Your Name is a more likely nominee than either Miss Hokusai or April. Making the usual statistical assumptions, there's only about an 8% chance of Your Name having a final rating that falls below 8.0. The assumption of a normal distribution is a bit questionable for films with high ratings, so the real chance will be at least slightly higher than that. But for perspective, the chance of a film with a Zootopia-like distribution of ratings to randomly have its first five rated reviews all with an equivalent rating of 8/10 or higher is only 15%.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Jason

[Jason]

27 ANIMATED FEATURES SUBMITTED FOR 2016 OSCAR® RACE

Quote

A record 27 features have been submitted for consideration in the Animated Feature Film category for the 89th Academy Awards.

The submitted features, listed in alphabetical order, are:

• “The Angry Birds Movie”
• “April and the Extraordinary World”
• “Bilal”
• “Finding Dory”
• “Ice Age: Collision Course”
• “Kingsglaive Final Fantasy XV”
• “Kubo and the Two Strings”
• “Kung Fu Panda 3”
• “The Little Prince”
• “Long Way North”
• “Miss Hokusai”
• “Moana”
• “Monkey King: Hero Is Back”
• “Mune”
• “Mustafa & the Magician”
• “My Life as a Zucchini”
• “Phantom Boy”
• “The Red Turtle”
• “Sausage Party”
• “The Secret Life of Pets”
• “Sing”
• “Snowtime!”
• “Storks”
• “Trolls”
• “25 April”
• “Your Name.”
• “Zootopia”

 

Edited November 11, 2016 by Jason

[Morieris]

I wouldn't be disappointed if Trolls pulled a Boxtrolls and got in somehow (Not bad - I genuinely enjoyed Trolls -  but not up to snuff with the other offerings) and bumped someone out.

 

Also I had no idea The Little Prince got any theatrical runs in America, let alone a qualifying one. 

Edited November 12, 2016 by Morieris

[SLAM!]

There is a lot of movies on that list, for sure! I think we're in for some upsets and surprises.

[BadAtGender]

10 hours ago, Morieris said:

I wouldn't be disappointed if Trolls pulled a Boxtrolls and got in somehow (Not bad - I genuinely enjoyed Trolls -  but not up to snuff with the other offerings) and bumped someone out.

 

Also I had no idea The Little Prince got any theatrical runs in America, let alone a qualifying one. 

 

Boxtrolls got in because of the format. Stop motion is pretty much a guarantee at a nomination. Trolls wouldn't have that advantage.

[Jason]

Right now, my picks for most likely nominees:

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. The Red Turtle
5. Your Name

I think Zootopia and Kubo are locked. April and the Extraordinary World, Finding Dory, and My Life as a Zucchini are strong competitors for the final three spots, not necessarily in that order. The Little Prince and Miss Hokusai I would consider surprise possibilities.

 

I don't think anything else has a chance. We've seen relatively weak films in the past receive a nomination, but this is by far the most competitive year ever in terms of the number of high quality submissions.

[SLAM!]

It's disappointing that Norm of the North and Ratchet and Clank didn't make the shortlist. *laughs to himself*

[Mojoguy]

I'll be rooting against Pixar like always.

[cannastop]

22 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I'll be rooting against Pixar like always.

Must have been fun in 2015.

[Mojoguy]

I like most of their movies, but... they do win too much. Smaller movies deserve to win too. lol

[Jason]

5 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I like most of their movies, but... they do win too much. Smaller movies deserve to win too. lol

 

The only year that a Pixar film has beaten a film (of any size) with better reception is 2012, with Brave beating Frankenweenie and Wreck-it Ralph.

 

Are there any smaller films that you feel deserved the award over Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, WALL-E, Up, Toy Story 3, or Inside Out, purely based on their own merits?

[BadAtGender]

3 hours ago, Jason said:

 

The only year that a Pixar film has beaten a film (of any size) with better reception is 2012, with Brave beating Frankenweenie and Wreck-it Ralph.

 

Are there any smaller films that you feel deserved the award over Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, WALL-E, Up, Toy Story 3, or Inside Out, purely based on their own merits?

 

I'd easily choose HTTYD over TS3.

 

And, honestly, Persepolis over Ratatouille.

[Mojoguy]

The only year that a Pixar film has beaten a film (of any size) with better reception is 2012, with Brave beating Frankenweenie and Wreck-it Ralph.

Are there any smaller films that you feel deserved the award over Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, WALL-E, Up, Toy Story 3, or Inside Out, purely based on their own merits?

KFP over Wall-E
HTTYD over TS3
WIR or ParaNorman over Brave
Song of the Sea over BH6
Anomalisa over Inside Out