keysersoze123 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 yesterday's increase in raw yuan was slightly higher than wednesday but % wise there was almost no growth. May be presales are tapering. We have to see how things go today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 (edited) 4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: yesterday's increase in raw yuan was slightly higher than wednesday but % wise there was almost no growth. May be presales are tapering. We have to see how things go today. I've been looking for the % growth to drop to 20% for 2 days now. If revenue just matches yesterday it'll still be over 20%. They are adding 5-10k show daily. That keep the revenue increasing a bit. Last night was 24.6 at 1am up 5.1m. Looking for 5.5m or more. Will know run rate by noon. It averaged 340k yesterday Edit. The hourly is all over the place. 500-700k. Waiting for it to settle down. Will be above 25% again. By the time/if it slows down it will be time to ramp up again on tuesday. Edited April 7, 2017 by POTUS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 (edited) Just went up 500k in 30 minutes Either Maoyan is broken or SW7 is going down. Did Vinny go into the ICU? Edited April 7, 2017 by POTUS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 its definitely showing bigger acceleration today than yesterday. one 30 minute spike may not mean much( may be there could have been bulk corporate bookings). Overall number is promising. Could hit 31-32m today 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abra Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 14 hours ago, abra said: [7 days+ 0 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 7.88m Fri: 24.40m Sat: 9.67m [6 days+ 10 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 8.61m Fri: 27.74m Sat: 11.13m 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 FF7 had 104 attendance per showtime on ite opening day. let's say FF8 will have 150k showtimes, it's opening day will be workday, per-show-attendance will be 80, multiple by 36 average ticket 432M yuan is the likely roof for its OD. 50M midnight 430M Friday 559M +30% Sat 420M -25% Sun 1.46B will the roof for its OW, no where near EP7 domestic($248M=1711M) 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Olive, So you dont think F8 will take midnight record . That seems pessimistic. I agree with rest of the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said: Olive, So you dont think F8 will take midnight record . That seems pessimistic. I agree with rest of the weekend. Poeple have work on Friday, 50M is really huge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 Midnight showtimes 8,200 opening day 72,054 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, Olive said: FF7 had 104 attendance per showtime on ite opening day. let's say FF8 will have 150k showtimes, it's opening day will be workday, per-show-attendance will be 80, multiple by 36 average ticket 432M yuan is the likely roof for its OD. 50M midnight 430M Friday 559M +30% Sat 420M -25% Sun 1.46B will the roof for its OW, no where near EP7 domestic($248M=1711M) I'm thinking at least 60% of 280k show times. 168k shows. Possibly 62% of 290k. 180k. Add 20% to your roof. 1752. Note. @Olive is often low and I am on the high side. If I recall I was saying $400m was possible for FF7 early on and you were mid 300s. $390 total. Same with Monster hunt. No one thought RE6 was going to do over 150m OD when I nailed 200m early on. It can happen. It's CBO. Anything can happen. I do get what you're saying though. A ceiling could be hit and normal model could deviate drastically Edited April 7, 2017 by POTUS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Today it has been on fire. going to increase 35% !!! it looks like having 200m presales at this pace. I definitely think it will do better than Olive projections though SW7 OW seem tough. I also feel it will take midnight record despite being a friday. around 15K shows and around 60m yuan for midnights. OD around 450m and saturday sunday around 600/450 for 1560m OW !!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Even with "pessimistic" projections , it is probable to do the second biggest OW ever, over TA and JW. Absurd. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: Today it has been on fire. going to increase 35% !!! it looks like having 200m presales at this pace. I definitely think it will do better than Olive projections though SW7 OW seem tough. I also feel it will take midnight record despite being a friday. around 15K shows and around 60m yuan for midnights. OD around 450m and saturday sunday around 600/450 for 1560m OW !!! They added more than 10k shows today. Biggest bump since day 1. I think that's why PS are moving. They will probably do 10k + per day now and ramp that up next wed/Thursday to 20/30k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, POTUS said: They added more than 10k shows today. Biggest bump since day 1. I think that's why PS are moving. They will probably do 10k + per day now and ramp that up next wed/Thursday to 20/30k. Please update your PS projections again. It looks pessimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 JTTW2 OD per-show attendance is 84, and that's limited by showtimes with Spring festival boost. FF8 will definitely be lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 From what I see, its presales are stronger in smaller cities than metropolises. This will asure it have better weekday performance than normal blockbusters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, Olive said: JTTW2 OD per-show attendance is 84, and that's limited by showtimes with Spring festival boost. FF8 will definitely be lower. You keep going low and ill still go high. see where it falls in the middle Big boost today 34-38%. May go to 34m but I put down 33m for 1am Saturday on the low end. The hourlies are still erratic and crazy I have lowered PS bumps, OD PS multi, and the Fri multi (just a 17% bump on Sat) to lower levels than I think they'll be and it still comes out to $207m OW. The high end chart is within normal parameters and within the realm of possibility with just a sellout ceiling that could prevent SW7. It'll be up to the matinees and the Audience rating. 9.2 would be nice on Maoyan JttW2 WC FF8 low end PS 1am OD PS % gain MN PS % gain OD PS % gain MN PS % gain OD PS gain % gain Sa 12.7 8.8 2.5 Su 16.9 32.7% 11.0 12.0 37.1% 5.4 2.9 116.0% Mo 19.4 14.9% 13.0 14.8 23.3% 8.3 2.9 53.7% Tu 22.1 14.2% 14.9 17.0 14.9% 11.4 3.1 37.3% We 25.5 15.3% 16.0 20.0 17.6% 5.0 14.5 3.1 27.2% Th 29.1 14.1% 18.1 0.0% 23.0 15.0% 6.4 28.0% 19.5 5.0 34.5% Fr 33.3 14.4% 19.6 8.3% 27.0 17.4% 8.0 25.0% 24.6 5.1 26.2% Sa 38.4 15.3% 21.8 11.2% 31.5 16.7% 9.8 22.5% 33.0 8.4 34.1% Su 44.0 14.6% 22.5 3.2% 35.9 14.0% 12.0 22.4% 41.4 8.4 25.5% proj Mo 51.0 15.9% 23.4 4.0% 40.8 13.6% 15.0 25.0% 51.0 9.6 23.2% proj Tu 57.0 11.8% 25.7 9.8% 44.8 9.8% 19.0 26.7% 62.0 11.0 21.6% proj We 72.0 26.3% 27.1 5.4% 50.7 13.2% 26.0 36.8% 77.0 15.0 24.2% proj Th 88.8 23.3% 30.0 10.7% 64.8 27.8% 36.0 38.5% 102.0 25.0 32.5% proj Fr(OD) 140.0 57.7% 50.1 67.0% 96.0 48.1% 70.0 94.4% 162.0 60.0 58.8% proj OD 356.0 154.3% 251.5 162.0% 445.5 175.0% proj Multi 2.54 2.62 2.75 OD OW Total OD $ OW $ Total $ FF8 high end JttW2 356 777 1656 52 113 240 MN PS % gain OD PS % gain WC 251 819 1472 36 125 225 2.5 FF8 Lo 446 1426 2851 65 207 413 5.4 2.9 116.0% FF8 Hi 522 1723 3617 76 250 524 8.3 2.9 53.7% 11.4 3.1 37.3% 5.0 14.5 3.1 27.2% 6.4 28.0% 19.5 5.0 34.5% 8.0 25.0% 24.6 5.1 26.2% 10.0 25.0% 34.0 9.4 38.2% 42.0 8.0 23.5% proj 52.0 10.0 23.8% proj 64.0 12.0 23.1% proj 82.0 18.0 28.1% proj 112.0 30.0 36.6% proj 180.0 68.0 60.7% proj 522.0 190.0% proj 2.90 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 CNY 2017 BO Shows 28th 809m 318k 29th 587 313 30th 546 310 Total 1942. 2400m possible in 3 days. JTTW and Buddies fell out of bed. 5% screens added since. 2520m is full capacity now. JTTW and buddies 28th 544m 189k JTTW and KFY 29th 354m 162k 30th 333m 164k We need a lot of kids to skip school. Do teens get out at 2-3pm there? 500m Friday then a 30% Saturday bump is conceivable Yeah I know 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 (edited) Dp Edited April 7, 2017 by POTUS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 JTTW2[6 days + 2 hours] OD+MN = 38.4m F8[6 days + 3 hours] MN = 9.5m OD = 31.72m F8 OD speed increase is better than JTTW2 at the time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...