andersonhoran Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 How Captain Marvel presale is doing compared to other MCU movies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Captain Marvel China pre sales At midnight T-8 Days Previews - ¥0.63mn Opening Day - ¥2.15mn ($320k) 28707 shows Saturday - ¥0.91mn Sunday - ¥0.50mn Total - ¥4.19mn ($625k) In comparison with On 2/24/2018 at 9:14 PM, druv10 said: BP presales have started. Look pretty strong this far out. Thursday 570K Friday 2.46M Saturday 1.33M Sunday 690K Black Panther had released in rest of the world by then and had positivity of gangbuster US business and also the hype of great reviews. Edited February 27, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andersonhoran Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: In comparison with Black Panther had released in rest of the world by then and had positivity of gangbuster US business and also the hype of great reviews. So what do you think will be the debut? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, andersonhoran said: So what do you think will be the debut? I may be very wrong but I am expecting Women's day to help it in big way. I am expecting 75-80mn weekend with normal 8.7-8.9 Maoyan score word of mouth. If over 9.1, she will go up. Edited February 27, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Carol is on track to make ¥15M from midnights. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joyous Legion Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: Carol is on track to make ¥15M from midnights. MCU comps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 - million Avengers: Infinity War ¥59.51 $9.40 Avengers: Age of Ultron ¥29.74 $4.79 Captain America - Civil War ¥16.99 $2.62 Venom ¥15.89 $2.28 Iron Man 3 ¥12.88 $2.09 Ant-Man and the Wasp ¥10.33 $1.52 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 (edited) IMO the best comp to CM is Black Panther. I will be updating it daily. If missed, please do my bid. Time Captain Marvel Black Panther Spider-Man: Homecoming Ant-Man and The Wasp Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change 14 Days Out 13 Days Out 12 Days Out ¥2.46 11 Days Out ¥3.15 28.05% 10 Days Out ¥3.65 15.87% ¥1.86 ¥2.82 9 Days Out ¥4.22 15.62% ¥2.60 39.78% ¥3.47 23.05% 8 Days Out ¥2.15 ¥4.93 16.82% ¥3.70 42.31% ¥4.09 17.87% 7 Days Out ¥5.77 17.04% ¥4.80 29.73% ¥4.81 17.60% 6 Days Out ¥6.82 18.20% ¥6.00 25.00% ¥5.87 22.04% 5 Days Out ¥8.19 20.09% ¥7.50 25.00% ¥7.08 20.61% 4 Days Out ¥10.19 24.42% ¥9.00 20.00% ¥8.43 19.07% 3 Days Out ¥14.03 37.68% ¥10.50 16.67% ¥11.25 33.45% 2 Days Out ¥19.20 36.85% ¥13.75 30.95% ¥15.42 37.07% 1 Day Out ¥26.78 39.48% ¥20.00 45.45% ¥23.68 53.57% Final ¥45.50 69.90% ¥36.00 80.00% ¥46.55 96.58% Opening Day ¥0.00 ¥131.77 ¥134.63 ¥154.49 PSm 2.90 3.74 3.32 The opening day presales are already 3.5mn, by the end of day shall hit 5mn. Edit: Added S-M:H and A-M&TW Edited February 28, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 (edited) 15 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Captain Marvel China pre sales At midnight T-8 Days Previews - ¥0.63mn Opening Day - ¥2.15mn ($320k) 28707 shows Saturday - ¥0.91mn Sunday - ¥0.50mn Total - ¥4.19mn ($625k) CM PS still popping at 3.5m at 3pm as shows get up to 37k. It will get to 5m+ tonight, impressive, i was expecting just 2-3m today. Its a late PS start date and it should average at least 30% bumps thru tuesday then 50% wed, 80% thur. Thats 50m in PS. OD 175m OW 550m/$82m OW Tot 1b-1.2b/$150-180m If PS can average 40% daily bumps thru tues, common starting 9 days out, then its a $100m+ OW putting it in AQ and VM territory subject to a 9+ rating. Its early, but it looks good. lets see if it clears 5m tonight and 7m tomorrow Edited February 28, 2019 by POTUS 2020 4 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said: CM PS still popping at 3.5m at 3pm as shows get up to 37k. It will get to 5m+ tonight, impressive, i was expecting just 2-3m today. Its a late PS start date and it should average at least 30% bumps thru tuesday then 50% wed, 80% thur. Thats 50m in PS. OD 175m OW 550m/$82m OW Tot 1b-1.2b/$150-180m If PS can average 40% daily bumps thru tues, common starting 9 days out, then its a $100m+ OW putting it in AQ and VM territory subject to a 9+ rating. Its early, but it looks good. lets see if it clears 5m tonight and 7m tomorrow Perhaps it won't get that Saturday bump due to Friday being Women's day. My expectation same except total I feel would be $150mn range and opening day a bit higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Perhaps it won't get that Saturday bump due to Friday being Women's day. My expectation same except total I feel would be $150mn range and opening day a bit higher. Ah, i didnt know. Sat flat at best. Fri multi may be 2.7 instead of 3.3 knocking the OW projection down 20% but i think 50m ps and 175m OD is on the conservative side. Edit. Last year movies bumped 50%+ on women's day. OD can be inflated by 25%, but could spill over into sat. Edited February 28, 2019 by POTUS 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 $75-85M opening I think. 2 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/26/2019 at 12:55 PM, POTUS 2020 said: It should. Very rare to start just 7 days out. HTTYD3 PS will clear 4m tonight and are on track to reach 10-12m expect 35-45m OD 180-200m/$30m OW. $70m+ total possible. It should not have a big impact on Alita. HTTYD2 opened on a summer thursday. Aug 14, 2014 Th 35m Fr 33 Sa 50 Su 47 OW 130m/$21m It legged out to 402m/$64m with summer weekday help HTTYD3 PS on track to reach 14m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 (edited) Captain Marvel T-7 Days Date Gross in ¥ ('000) Gross in $ Shows / Avg Gross-to-Date Mar. 07, 2019 ¥1,380 $209,000 4,861 $43 $209,000 Mar. 8, 2019 ¥5,030 $755,000 42,620 $18 $964,000 Mar. 09, 2019 ¥2,130 $320,000 22,447 $14 $1,284,000 Mar. 10, 2019 ¥1,280 $192,000 19,638 $10 $1,475,000 Edited February 28, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 hours ago, efialtes76 said: HTTYD3 PS on track to reach 14m. yup. OD to be 50-56m but may not do 4.5-5x OD for OW with the WD bump Ill go with 200-220m / $30-33m OW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 57 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said: yup. OD to be 50-56m but may not do 4.5-5x OD for OW with the WD bump Ill go with 200-220m / $30-33m OW WD is next Friday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 (edited) 19 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said: IMO the best comp to CM is Black Panther. I will be updating it daily. If missed, please do my bid. Time Captain Marvel Black Panther Spider-Man: Homecoming Ant-Man and The Wasp Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change 14 Days Out 13 Days Out 12 Days Out ¥2.46 11 Days Out ¥3.15 28.05% 10 Days Out ¥3.65 15.87% ¥1.86 ¥2.82 9 Days Out ¥4.22 15.62% ¥2.60 39.78% ¥3.47 23.05% 8 Days Out ¥2.15 ¥4.93 16.82% ¥3.70 42.31% ¥4.09 17.87% 7 Days Out ¥5.77 17.04% ¥4.80 29.73% ¥4.81 17.60% 6 Days Out ¥6.82 18.20% ¥6.00 25.00% ¥5.87 22.04% 5 Days Out ¥8.19 20.09% ¥7.50 25.00% ¥7.08 20.61% 4 Days Out ¥10.19 24.42% ¥9.00 20.00% ¥8.43 19.07% 3 Days Out ¥14.03 37.68% ¥10.50 16.67% ¥11.25 33.45% 2 Days Out ¥19.20 36.85% ¥13.75 30.95% ¥15.42 37.07% 1 Day Out ¥26.78 39.48% ¥20.00 45.45% ¥23.68 53.57% Final ¥45.50 69.90% ¥36.00 80.00% ¥46.55 96.58% Opening Day ¥0.00 ¥131.77 ¥134.63 ¥154.49 PSm 2.90 3.74 3.32 The opening day presales are already 3.5mn, by the end of day shall hit 5mn. Edit: Added S-M:H and A-M&TW Despite starting late among the four of these, Cap will most likely be the leader in pre-sale at same circle of time by end of day as it looks like will hit ¥8mn 6 days out. That's some pace. OD Ps will be around ¥60mn I suppose if this pace continues. The average of 4 is 3.32, if Ps is ¥60mn and Psm is 3.32x, we actually may see a ¥200mn OD. If it is on track of BP, that would give ¥175mn. 2.7 as suggested by @POTUS 2020 would give ¥540mn weekend i.e. $81mn. My prediction would be similar but with ¥15mn ¥190-200mn ¥190-200mn ¥150-160mn i.e. ¥545-575mn or $82-86.5mn. Edited March 1, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joyous Legion Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 (edited) Woah, ~8 today? From ~5? That would be a 60% jump, huge. With 80 last day, 50 penultimate, and average 30 before that as suggested by POTUS would be headed for about 62. Edited March 1, 2019 by Thanos Legion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Woah, ~8 today? From ~5? That would be a 60% jump, huge. With 80 last day, 50 penultimate, and average 30 before that as suggested by POTUS would be headed for about 62. It added ¥0.64mn since Midnight and its barely 11AM in China. Shall hit ¥8mn easily. I see it doing 8 Days Out ¥2.15 7 Days Out ¥5.03 133.95% 6 Days Out ¥8.00 59.05% 5 Days Out ¥11.00 37.50% 4 Days Out ¥14.50 31.82% 3 Days Out ¥19.00 31.03% 2 Days Out ¥25.00 31.58% 1 Day Out ¥35.00 40.00% Final ¥60.00 71.43% Edited March 1, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Captain Marvel is ahead of all MCU solo films in presales. In fact, it will be outpacing Venom by a bit at end of day, therefore I am bringing Venom in comp. Time Captain Marvel Venom Ant-Man and The Wasp Black Panther Spider-Man: Homecoming Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change 14 Days Out 13 Days Out 12 Days Out ¥2.46 11 Days Out ¥3.15 28.05% 10 Days Out ¥2.82 ¥3.65 15.87% ¥1.86 9 Days Out ¥2.99 ¥3.47 23.05% ¥4.22 15.62% ¥2.60 39.78% 8 Days Out ¥2.15 ¥4.48 49.83% ¥4.09 17.87% ¥4.93 16.82% ¥3.70 42.31% 7 Days Out ¥5.03 133.95% ¥6.38 42.41% ¥4.81 17.60% ¥5.77 17.04% ¥4.80 29.73% 6 Days Out ¥8.50 68.99% ¥8.46 32.60% ¥5.87 22.04% ¥6.82 18.20% ¥6.00 25.00% 5 Days Out ¥10.30 21.75% ¥7.08 20.61% ¥8.19 20.09% ¥7.50 25.00% 4 Days Out ¥13.10 27.18% ¥8.43 19.07% ¥10.19 24.42% ¥9.00 20.00% 3 Days Out ¥17.84 36.18% ¥11.25 33.45% ¥14.03 37.68% ¥10.50 16.67% 2 Days Out ¥24.75 38.73% ¥15.42 37.07% ¥19.20 36.85% ¥13.75 30.95% 1 Day Out ¥34.09 37.74% ¥23.68 53.57% ¥26.78 39.48% ¥20.00 45.45% Final ¥60.06 76.18% ¥46.55 96.58% ¥45.50 69.90% ¥36.00 80.00% Opening Day ¥223.38 ¥154.49 ¥131.77 ¥134.63 PSm 3.72 3.32 2.90 3.74 3 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
