UserHN Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 23 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: The whole point of my excessive records for CM is practice for Endgame Just curious. Does the Chinese know that CM will play a vital part in Endgame? Is it the reason why we see this pre-sales for CM? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, UserHN said: Just curious. Does the Chinese know that CM will play a vital part in Endgame? Is it the reason why we see this pre-sales for CM? I suppose that's why, else I was expecting CM to underperform overseas. By underperform, I meant not Homecoming numbers but surprisingly I expected same for BP and it did better than Homecoming. Box Office is weird sometimes. Edited March 4, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 41 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: I suppose that's why, else I was expecting CM to underperform overseas. By underperform, I meant not Homecoming numbers but surprisingly I expected same for BP and it did better than Homecoming. Box Office is weird sometimes. Just matching BP's $600M international numbers is already great for CM (if it were to happen). It just needs $400M domestic to gross $1B worldwide. Still, I'm tampering my expectations for this film so as not to be disappointed. I'll go for $500M international/$300 domestic. That's my conservative prediction. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 4 hours ago, UserHN said: Just matching BP's $600M international numbers is already great for CM (if it were to happen). It just needs $400M domestic to gross $1B worldwide. Still, I'm tampering my expectations for this film so as not to be disappointed. I'll go for $500M international/$300 domestic. That's my conservative prediction. personally depends also on the weekend in us i think the ceiling is 500 dom and 700 over + china for now ,i am not saying it will do it ,i am saying that this could happen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 (edited) Well, 17:30 has arrived, and the gentle embrace of nothingness beckons me. Very consistent .4/hr for past 7.5 hours. Will guess twice the 14-17:30 period again to get to 21.2, but doubt I get nearly as lucky this time 😛 Shouldn’t end much lower than POTUS’s 20.5 though, good estimate from him and good day for CM. Tomorrow I’ll set up a proper spreadsheet. Edited March 4, 2019 by Thanos Legion 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said: Well, 17:30 has arrived, and the gentle embrace of nothingness beckons me. Very consistent .4/hr for past 7.5 hours. Will guess twice the 14-17:30 period again to get to 21.2, but doubt I get nearly as lucky this time 😛 Doubt it ends much much lower than POTUS’s 20.5 though, good estimate from him and good day for CM. so what range ow we looking at ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 minute ago, john2000 said: so what range ow we looking at ? Agree with POTUS’s mid 70s final PS for now. Projecting that to OW is a bit tricky without many clues to reception yet and International Women’s day on the OD, but I’m thinking about 550-700¥, ~85-100$ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 I though CM could average 40% thru Tuesday. 30% bumps on sat and sunday and it looks like 50% will happen today and probably tomorrow. 80m PS probable. Im thinking OD is bumped 50% due to WD. Sat may drop 10%+ T 15 F 270 S 240 S 180 OW 705/$105m OD PSm could be low due to WD. FriM could be low if the ratiing is mid 8 or lower. $75m is the low bar still 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 47 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said: I though CM could average 40% thru Tuesday. 30% bumps on sat and sunday and it looks like 50% will happen today and probably tomorrow. 80m PS probable. Im thinking OD is bumped 50% due to WD. Sat may drop 10%+ T 15 F 270 S 240 S 180 OW 705/$105m OD PSm could be low due to WD. FriM could be low if the ratiing is mid 8 or lower. $75m is the low bar still That OW multi (if it hits 105m USD with 80m Yuan in presales) would actually be lower than Black Panther. That low bar of 75 would be a PS to OW multi of 6.275 which is even lower than IW which had a multi of 6.98. If it actually manages a total PS of 80m then an OW higher than 100-105 becomes very likely (I am assuming that this will have a better rating and WOM than Black Panther) and the lower bar should be more like 85m USD. Since everyone is going optimistic I'll go with slightly less optimistic and say final PS will be in the 65-70m range which itself would be the highest PS for a superhero movie not named Avengers. Following exact same increases as Venom from yesterday gets CM to 68m sh final PS which seems reasonable to me. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 28 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said: That OW multi (if it hits 105m USD with 80m Yuan in presales) would actually be lower than Black Panther. That low bar of 75 would be a PS to OW multi of 6.275 which is even lower than IW which had a multi of 6.98. If it actually manages a total PS of 80m then an OW higher than 100-105 becomes very likely (I am assuming that this will have a better rating and WOM than Black Panther) and the lower bar should be more like 85m USD. Since everyone is going optimistic I'll go with slightly less optimistic and say final PS will be in the 65-70m range which itself would be the highest PS for a superhero movie not named Avengers. Following exact same increases as Venom from yesterday gets CM to 68m sh final PS which seems reasonable to me. If you use venom % increases from todays 21m you would get 71m in ps's. But I might not jump the same way. Still I the increases have been great so far so I would say 75m is decent bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 (edited) Captain Marvel T-3 Days Date Gross in ¥ ('000) Gross in $ Change Shows / Avg Gross-to-Date Mar. 07, 2019 ¥3,800 $567,000 31% 6,250 $91 $567,000 Mar. 8, 2019 ¥21,000 $3,134,000 45% 73,150 $43 $3,671,000 Mar. 09, 2019 ¥9,000 $1,343,000 45% 42,050 $32 $5,044,000 Mar. 10, 2019 ¥3,700 $552,000 37% 35,000 $16 $5,596,000 Comps Spoiler Time Captain Marvel Venom Captain America: Civil War Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change 14 Days Out 13 Days Out 12 Days Out 11 Days Out 10 Days Out 9 Days Out ¥2.99 8 Days Out ¥2.15 ¥4.48 50% ¥2.40 7 Days Out ¥5.03 134% ¥6.38 42% ¥3.60 50% 6 Days Out ¥8.44 68% ¥8.46 33% ¥6.20 72% 5 Days Out ¥11.10 32% ¥10.30 22% ¥8.10 31% 4 Days Out ¥14.45 30% ¥13.10 27% ¥11.90 47% 3 Days Out ¥21.00 45% ¥17.84 36% ¥16.30 37% 2 Days Out ¥24.75 39% ¥25.40 56% 1 Day Out ¥34.09 38% ¥37.90 49% Final ¥60.06 76% ¥65.80 74% Opening Day ¥0.00 ¥223.38 ¥181.00 PSm 3.72 2.75 Edited March 4, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: That OW multi (if it hits 105m USD with 80m Yuan in presales) would actually be lower than Black Panther. That low bar of 75 would be a PS to OW multi of 6.275 which is even lower than IW which had a multi of 6.98. If it actually manages a total PS of 80m then an OW higher than 100-105 becomes very likely (I am assuming that this will have a better rating and WOM than Black Panther) and the lower bar should be more like 85m USD. Since everyone is going optimistic I'll go with slightly less optimistic and say final PS will be in the 65-70m range which itself would be the highest PS for a superhero movie not named Avengers. Following exact same increases as Venom from yesterday gets CM to 68m sh final PS which seems reasonable to me. Remember, having a low PS to OW ratio and Fri to OW is due to WD. Without WD PS could easily be 50m. OD 175m OW 590m/$88m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 51 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Captain Marvel T-3 Days Date Gross in ¥ ('000) Gross in $ Change Shows / Avg Gross-to-Date Mar. 07, 2019 ¥3,800 $567,000 31% 6,250 $91 $567,000 Mar. 8, 2019 ¥20,800 $3,104,000 44% 72,500 $43 $3,671,000 Mar. 09, 2019 ¥8,700 $1,299,000 40% 42,000 $31 $4,970,000 Mar. 10, 2019 ¥3,700 $552,000 37% 35,000 $16 $5,522,000 Comps Hide contents Time Captain Marvel Venom Captain America: Civil War Gross Change Gross Change Gross Change 14 Days Out 13 Days Out 12 Days Out 11 Days Out 10 Days Out 9 Days Out ¥2.99 8 Days Out ¥2.15 ¥4.48 50% ¥2.40 7 Days Out ¥5.03 134% ¥6.38 42% ¥3.60 50% 6 Days Out ¥8.44 68% ¥8.46 33% ¥6.20 72% 5 Days Out ¥11.10 32% ¥10.30 22% ¥8.10 31% 4 Days Out ¥14.45 30% ¥13.10 27% ¥11.90 47% 3 Days Out ¥20.80 44% ¥17.84 36% ¥16.30 37% 2 Days Out ¥24.75 39% ¥25.40 56% 1 Day Out ¥34.09 38% ¥37.90 49% Final ¥60.06 76% ¥65.80 74% Opening Day ¥0.00 ¥223.38 ¥181.00 PSm 3.72 2.75 Isn't 21m more likely for today then 20.8? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, pepsa said: Isn't 21m more likely for today then 20.8? Could be but 20.8 seemed like will be it when I posted it. Anyways will correct it if needed, I posted it just because I won't be on PC during midnight, will check the numbers at midnight and edit it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 4 hours ago, pepsa said: If you use venom % increases from todays 21m you would get 71m in ps's. But I might not jump the same way. Still I the increases have been great so far so I would say 75m is decent bet. The bumps should remain high, it has just 73k shows, less than 50% of its final number because it started late. Normally 60% of shows are listed by monday night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said: The bumps should remain high, it has just 73k shows, less than 50% of its final number because it started late. Normally 60% of shows are listed by monday night. Do you monitor only the Chinese BO or do you also take a glimpse of what's happening in other international markets? Just curious 😊. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 (edited) So a ¥6.55mn Monday before release in pre-sales. That's absolutely massive. Almost 50% more than what Civil War did. Assuming it just match the exact number of CW from here, we willl have ¥71mn of pre-sales or a better case, if it goes with same % change as Venom it will be ¥74mn Approx. But a big point, it still has just 73k shows as compared to 83k of Venom, it's gains could be bigger and if reviews are positive may explode as well. I just checked, Infinity War did ¥13mn on Monday and ¥93mn after that, that's a notch above 7x. If Captain Marvel do that, final pre-sales will be ¥68mn Approx. Venom did 8.9x, that would be a ¥58mn from here to ¥79mn. Civil War did 11.25x, that would be an absurd ¥95mn. Cutting the crap, Venom may be the case. Edited March 4, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: So a ¥6.55mn Monday before release in pre-sales. That's absolutely massive. Almost 50% more than what Civil War did. Assuming it just match the exact number of CW from here, we willl have ¥71mn of pre-sales or a better case, if it goes with same % change as Venom it will be ¥74mn Approx. But a big point, it still has just 73k shows as compared to 83k of Venom, it's gains could be bigger and if reviews are positive may explode as well. I hope so. The only """problem""" for CM is the score of mayoan 👍🏻 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Off to you @Thanos Legion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rishijoesanu Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 So, a $100M-$110M is the current consensus? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
