Box Office of 2016 vs 2015: 1ST QUARTER

[MCKillswitch123]

So I decided to compare the box office of the 1st quarters of this year and the last through the 2nd weekend of April (the point we've gotten so far). It will provide some probably already known but still worth debating topics:

 

2016 VS 2015 BOX OFFICE

 

OPENING WEEKENDS (DOM)

2016                                                                            2015 
01. Batman V Superman: Dawn Of Justice (166M)             01. Furious 7 (147M)

02. Deadpool (132M)                                                      02. Fifty Shades Of Grey (85M)

03. Zootopia (75M)                                                         03. Cinderella (67M)

04. Kung Fu Panda 3 (41M)                                             04. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out Of Water (55M)

05. Ride Along 2 (35M)                                                   05. The Divergent Series: Insurgent (52.2M)                   

06. The Divergent Series: Allegiant (29M)                         06. Home (52.1M)

07. 10 Cloverfield Lane (24M)                                          07. Taken 3 (39M)

08. The Boss (23M)                                                        08. Kingsman: The Secret Service (36M)

09. London Has Fallen (21M)                                           09. Get Hard (33M)

10. How To Be Single (17.8M)                                         10. The Wedding Ringer (20M)

EP. The Revenant (39M)                                                  EP. American Sniper (89M)

TOTAL w/o EP: 563.8M                                                   TOTAL w/o EP: 586.3M

TOTAL w/EP: 602.8M                                                      TOTAL w/EP: 675.3M

EP: Extra Points - OW results of a movie that opened on this particular year and cracked the top 10 of it, but is technically from the previous year thanks to a limited release

 

TOP 10 OF THE YEAR UP UNTIL THIS POINT (2nd weekend of April) (DOM)

2016                                                                            2015

01. Deadpool (358M)                                                      01. Furious 7 (251M)

02. Batman V Superman: Dawn Of Justice (296.6M)          02. Cinderella (180M)

03. Zootopia (296M)                                                       03. Fifty Shades Of Grey (165M)

04. Kung Fu Panda 3 (140M)                                           04. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out Of Water (161M)

05. Ride Along 2 (90M)                                                   05. Home (129M)

06. 10 Cloverfield Lane (67M)                                          06. Kingsman: The Secret Service (124M)

07. The Divergent Series: Allegiant (61M)                         07. The Divergent Series: Insurgent (111M)

08. London Has Fallen (60M)                                           08. Taken 3 (89M)

09. Miracles From Heaven (53M)                                     09. Get Hard (70M)

10. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers Of Benghazi (52M)        10. The Wedding Ringer (64M)

TOTAL: 1.473B                                                              TOTAL: 1.344B

 

TOP 10 OF THE YEAR UP UNTIL THIS POINT (2nd weekend of April) (WW)

2016                                                                             2015

01. Zootopia (852M)                                                        01. Furious 7 (805M)

02. Batman V Superman: Dawn Of Justice (784M)             02. Fifty Shades Of Grey (567M) 

03. Deadpool (756M)                                                      03. Cinderella (436M)

04. The Mermaid (552M)                                                 04. Kingsman: The Secret Service (391M)

05. Kung Fu Panda 3 (484M)                                            05. Taken 3 (326M) 

06. The Monkey King 2 (194M)                                         06. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out Of Water (303M)  

07. London Has Fallen (183M)                                          07. The Divergent Series: Insurgent (249M)

08. From Vegas To Macau III (182M)                               08. Home (240M)

09. The Divergent Series: Allegiant (141M)                        09. Jupiter Ascending (181M)
10. Gods Of Egypt (134M)                                                10. From Vegas To Macau II (152M)

TOTAL: 4.262B                                                               TOTAL: 3.650B

 

So, despite having much more 'big in small scale' opening weekends, 2015's 1st Quarter only has that advantage, as thanks to perhaps a growth in WW markets (China particularly, as there are three Chinese movies in the 2016 list compared to only one in 2015), as well as a more "rich" movie schedule of the months we've gotten 2016's 1st Quarter has had more rhythm, per say. Probably that latter one due to the power of the Holy Trinity of 2016 Box Office thus far (Zootopia, Deadpool and BVS). But do you guys think? Will 2016 continue to improve from 2015 yet? Or will it start to fail doing that from Summer season onwards?

Edited April 17, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[cannastop]

The box office would really be in deep shit if Deadpool and Zootopia didn't outperform, huh?

[AniNate]

The big blockbusters have carried this first quarter

Schedule until June at least still looks pretty solid with a good mix of tentpoles spaced reasonably far from each other. Nothing will top Jurassic World but there looks to be more even distribution of wealth, between Disney and Fox anyway

[DAJK]

2016 is looking extremely strong so far, and going forward will just keep it up IMO. April looks lame Jungle Book aside, as well as September/October. Everything else looks solid though.

[cannastop]

9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

2016 is looking extremely strong so far, and going forward will just keep it up IMO. April looks lame Jungle Book aside, as well as September/October. Everything else looks solid though.

I actually think June and July look kind of lame.

 

Finding Dory isn't going to be the savior people expect. None of the lineup strikes me as enticing, really.

[DAJK]

7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I actually think June and July look kind of lame.

 

Finding Dory isn't going to be the savior people expect. None of the lineup strikes me as enticing, really.

Early June has a lot of mid level wildcards. While I am of the belief that Dory will do 120-130+ on OW, even regardless, ID4 will also be big. July looks absolutely stacked though. Every weekend has a lot of potential.

[cannastop]

Just now, DAJK said:

Early June has a lot of mid level wildcards. While I am of the belief that Dory will do 120-130+ on OW, even regardless, ID4 will also be big. July looks absolutely stacked though. Every weekend has a lot of potential.

July looks like nothing but wildcards to me.

[DAJK]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

July looks like nothing but wildcards to me.

Exactly. That's why I think it could be huge. No way everything bombs, so at the very least we get 1-2 breakouts and a few more decent performers.

[MCKillswitch123]

8 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I actually think June and July look kind of lame.

 

Finding Dory isn't going to be the savior people expect. None of the lineup strikes me as enticing, really.

 

I know you're a big Zootopia fan, but you keep telling yourself that and you'll be very sad. Maybe Dory won't have, like, a ginormous opening weekend or something (still banking on it outdoing the Shrek The Third animated record, or at the very least Pixar's record w/Toy Story 3), but if it's half the movie that the original was, it will have incredible legs out of stellar WOM, similarly to Zootopia, only on a bigger scale due to it being a more recognizable film. 9 out of 10 people probably have Nemo as one of their all-time favs from the Luxo Jr. House, a movie that did 800M+ in 2003 (3D re-release in 2012 led to 900M+). Plus, Inside Out last year, a original from Pixar, did 350 DOM and 850 WW, so surely a sequel to one of the greatest and most beloved animations of all time can outdo it (this is all assuming this is more Toy Story 2 and less Cars 2).

 

Plus, even without Dory, (and I'm not saying any of these are sure to be good films, so if you're talking about that, you might have a point, but I'm saying box office wise), you still got TMNT, ID2, Bourne, Pets, Ghostbusters (ugh), Star Trek, Central Intelligence, BFG, Conjuring and maybe Warcraft and Shallows as potential big hits too. Quality wise, only a few of those interest me (Pets, Bourne, BFG and Conjuring), but still, money wise, Summer is more than fine this year.

[Wrath]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Exactly. That's why I think it could be huge. No way everything bombs, so at the very least we get 1-2 breakouts and a few more decent performers.

I think last August would disagree with you. War Room was #2 for the month.

[Wrath]

2 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Plus, even without Dory, (and I'm not saying any of these are sure to be good films, so if you're talking about that, you might have a point, but I'm saying box office wise), you still got TMNT, ID2, Bourne, Pets, Ghostbusters (ugh), Star Trek, Central Intelligence, BFG, Conjuring and maybe Warcraft and Shallows as potential big hits too. Quality wise, only a few of those interest me (Pets, Bourne, BFG and Conjuring), but still, money wise, Summer is more than fine this year.

 

She's an unreliable indicator, but my 9 year old is already excited for the BFG.

[AniNate]

If hoping for Dory to be a masterpiece and break box office records is wrong, I don't want to be right

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, Wrath said:

I think last August would disagree with you. War Room was #2 for the month.

Last August looked brutal anyways. Everything looked like a bomb other than Fantastic 4 (before we found out how terrible the film was) and Compton (which was a nice surprise).

 

Different is this July has a few movies that look like they'll be big. Pets, Tarzan, Bourne, BFG, Star Trek, Ice Age...

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, tribefan695 said:

If hoping for Dory to be a masterpiece and break box office records is wrong, I don't want to be right

It might be one big fish in a small pond.

[AniNate]

I'll concede apart from that movie there isn't much I'm expecting a classic level reception from this summer. Nevertheless admission wise it looks pretty solid

[MCKillswitch123]

14 hours ago, tribefan695 said:

I'll concede apart from that movie there isn't much I'm expecting a classic level reception from this summer. Nevertheless admission wise it looks pretty solid

 

Besides Dory (hopefully), I totally see Jason Bourne, The BFG and maybe The Conjuring 2 getting rave reviews.

[MCKillswitch123]

UPDATE THROUGH THE 3RD WEEKEND OF APRIL

 

TOP OPENING WEEKENDS (DOM)

#1 - Batman V Superman: Dawn Of Justice (166M) vs. Furious 7 (147.1M)

#2 - Deadpool (132.7M) vs. Fifty Shades Of Grey (85.1M)

#3 - The Jungle Book (103.6M) vs. Cinderella (67.8M)

#4 - Zootopia (75M) vs. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out Of Water (55.3M)

#5 - Kung Fu Panda 3 (41.2M) vs. The Divergent Series: Insurgent (52.2M)

#6 - Ride Along 2 (35.2M) vs. Home (52.1M)

#7 - The Divergent Series: Allegiant (29M) vs. Taken 3 (39.2M)

#8 - 10 Cloverfield Lane (24.7M) vs. Kingsman: The Secret Service (36.2M)

#9 - The Boss (23.6M) vs. Get Hard (33.8M)

#10 - London Has Fallen (21.6M) vs. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 (23.7M)

EXTRA POINTS: The Revenant (39.8M) vs. American Sniper (89.2M)

 

TOTAL without EP: 652.6M vs. 592.5M

TOTAL w/EP: 692.4M vs. 681.7M

 

TOP DOM PERFORMERS

 

#1 - Deadpool (360M) vs. Furious 7 (294.5M)

#2 - Batman V Superman: Dawn Of Justice (311.3M) vs. Cinderella (186.4M)

#3 - Zootopia (307.4M) vs. Fifty Shades Of Grey (165.9M)

#4 - Kung Fu Panda 3 (141.3M) vs. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out Of Water (161.7M)

#5 - The Jungle Book (103.6M) vs. Home (142.9M)

#6 - Ride Along 2 (90.8M) vs. Kingsman: The Secret Service (125.6M)

#7 - 10 Cloverfield Lane (69.7M) vs. The Divergent Series: Insurgent (120.5M)

#8 - The Divergent Series: Allegiant (63.9M) vs. Taken 3 (89.1M)

#9 - London Has Fallen (61.4M) vs. Get Hard (78.3M)

#10 - Miracles From Heaven (56.9M) vs. The Wedding Ringer (64.4M)

 

TOTAL: 1.566.3B vs. 1.429.3B

 

TOP WW PERFORMERS

 

#1 - Zootopia (882.3M) vs. Furious 7 (1.164.8B)

#2 - Batman V Superman: Dawn Of Justice (827.3M) vs. Fifty Shades Of Grey (568.7M)

#3 - Deadpool (758.6M) vs. Cinderella (457.8M)

#4 - The Mermaid (552.5M) vs. Kingsman: The Secret Service (396.8M)

#5 - Kung Fu Panda 3 (496.7M) vs. Taken 3 (326.4M)

#6 - The Jungle Book (290.9M) vs. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out Of Water (309.1M)

#7 - The Monkey King 2 (193.6M) vs. Home (270.9M)

#8 - From Vegas To Macau III (182.5M) vs. The Divergent Series: Insurgent (262.7M)

#9 - London Has Fallen (160M) vs. Jupiter Ascending (182M)

#10 - The Divergent Series: Allegiant (146.8M) vs. From Vegas To Macau II (152M)

 

TOTAL: 4.491.2B vs. 4.091.2B

 

So yeah, The Jungle Book kinda changed everything. Even the advantage that 2015 had last week, the opening weekends, got torn around to this year's side w/Jon Favreau's flick's epic opening. And while the gap in the WW side of things has been shortened thanks to the monstruous numbers pulled by Furious 7 (870M OS in just 3 weeks, unbelievable), 2016 still has nearly a billion's worth of money ahead of 2015. Kick-ass. And as we're heading in for a record breaking 1st quarter, w/no more than four 300M DOM grossers, and 2 potential billion dollar club members (Zootopia and Jungle Book), does this heat up the potential for 2016 beating 2015 as a whole (even without a Force Awakens or a Jurassic World)?

[EmpireCity]

Mid-May through Mid-June is going to disappoint.  I think Dory will be huge and then my personal shocker of the summer is that ID4:R is a big 4 quad hit.  Tarzan will bomb and Secret Life of Pets will be a big hit.  Jason Bourne going to be a $250m hit.