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BOT User Tracking 1/13-1/15 Yikes! Bye-Bye Man, Live by Night, Monster Trucks, Patriots' Day, Silence, Sleepless

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That is one heck of a lot of new openers and films going wide. Plus, it almost feels like Monster Trucks should count as two movies thanks to all the ridiculous history it has going for it. Worth noting is that Silence is apparently going wide but only to 750 theaters so temper your predictions accordingly.


Please provide your 1/13-15 Three-Day Opening Weekend predicts for, 


Bye-Bye Man

Live by Night (wide)

Monster Trucks

Patriots' Day (wide)

Silence (wide)



Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

Edited by Wrath
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Okay, I finally have at least one theater deciding on their set-up - at my local 12, every movie gets 1 full screen from Rogue 1 to Monster Trucks (if you get 3d, you get a split of 2d/3d showings, but still only one total screen worth)...So, just the screen limitation is gonna keep anything from a monster breakout.  I am gonna predict now with the current projected screen counts (and weather), but if suddenly something loses 500 screens, I might update that movie:)...I don't have great confidence in any of my projections, except that no movie is probably breaking $30M in the 3 day (which is probably a gimme:)...and I actually don't have any movie breaking $20M for the 3 day (although I think Patriot's Day and a few holdovers will be close)...


Patriots' Day (wide) $19.1M 

Monster Trucks $16.5M (gotta keep $60M DOM in play:)...

Live by Night (wide) $7.2M

Bye-Bye Man $4.5M

Silence (wide) $3.3M 

Sleepless $3.1M

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Bye-Bye Man

Mean: 6.9M

Median: 7M

StnDev: 1.93M (revised StnDev: 1.61M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 27.61%

High: 10M

Low: 4.5M


BO.com 7.5M

Deadline 8M

MovieWeb 8.5M

Variety 8M


Live by Night

Mean: 11.7M

Median: 10.8M

StnDev: 5.6M (revised StnDev: 4.71M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 51.82%

High: 23M

Low: 7M


BO.com 7M

Deadline 8.5M

MovieWeb 9.5M

Variety 8M


Monster Trucks

Mean: 10.2M

Median: 9.5M

StnDev: 3.27M (revised StnDev: 3.89M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 34.45%

High: 16M

Low: 6M


BO.com 8M

Deadline 10M

MovieWeb 19M

Variety 7M


Patriots' Day

Mean: 22.1M

Median: 20.5M

StnDev: 3.86M (revised StnDev: 4.24M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 18.85%

High: 30M

Low: 18.5M


BO.com 17M

Deadline 17M

MovieWeb 17M

Variety 14.5M



Mean: 3.2M

Median: 3.15M

StnDev: 0.85M (revised StnDev: 1.55M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 26.99%

High: 4.4M

Low: 2.2M


BO.com 2.5M

Deadline 4M





Mean: 6.7M

Median: 6.6M

StnDev: 2.64M (revised StnDev: 2.48M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 39.93%

High: 10M

Low: 3.1M


BO.com 6M

Deadline 6M

MovieWeb 11M

Variety 6.5M


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