Wednesday approx #s from God 12.3 JW...10 Incred2

[a2k]

To point out a simple mistake I had made, can't just look at Mon-Wed hold. Here the 1st movie does better overall with a worse Mon-Wed hold. Better to look at the 3-day total:

M   T   W

10 14 10.5 : +5% Mon to Wed (34.5 total, 3.45x Monday)

10 12 11.0 : +10% Mon to Wed (33 total, 3.30x Monday)

Looking at just 2 days while ignoring the rest gives a wonky picture irrespective of whether those 2 days are consecutive or not.

[Fanboy]

10 minutes ago, a2k said:

To point out a simple mistake I had made, can't just look at Mon-Wed hold. Here the 1st movie does better overall with a worse Mon-Wed hold. Better to look at the 3-day total:

M   T   W

10 14 10.5 : +5% Mon to Wed (34.5 total, 3.45x Monday)

10 12 11.0 : +10% Mon to Wed (33 total, 3.30x Monday)

Looking at just 2 days while ignoring the rest gives a wonky picture irrespective of whether those 2 days are consecutive or not.

You can really look at whichever, but films with bigger Tuesday jumps and larger Wednesday drops mainly just indicate that they are playing to a different audience. Ocean's 8 for example is playing well with women and having bigger Tuesday jumps than most films at the moment. 

[IronJimbo]

9 hours ago, GraceRandolph said:

Avatar is amazing. How dare you? 

That's not funny Grace!

[dxmatrixdt]

 

I took the daily per screen averages for Incredibles 2 and divided by $9.00 instead of the $9.16 avg. ticket price since it isn't OW and there aren't as many higher priced screens.

So these numbers of tickets purchased/venue are a little different than if one is to use avg. ticket price

 

 M       T        W 

262 + 346 + 258

 

It would be easy to look at that, take a red pen and draw a line through it and write 260/day, then do a 50% increase to 390/day on Friday which is a +36% decrease from last Friday.  Inflated summer weekdays would suggest going 1.4x for prediction accuracy, and being conservative would go 1.25 or 1.3333.  

 

I have it going to 360 (+100 on the Mon/Wed avg.) and a 38.5% increase from 260.  495 on Saturday is a 37.5% increase and 495 is 90% of 550 which is where I have Jurassic World at.  390 on Sunday is then +50% what is there now, -21% off from Saturday which puts this suggestion in (prob-able) reason, This comes out to 1,245 purchases/venue * $9.00 avg. ticket price = ($11,205)(4,410) = $49,414,050.  

 

if you are looking for trouble, instead of going 360 + 495 + 390, just go 360 + 495 + 360 and you get $48,223,350.  Then figure it to be 360 + 500 + 360 and 48.25m and get the % drop from last weeks.  200 is what I'm predicting off the top of my head for next Monday, but 240 (-33%) is possible.  Tuesday could be anywhere from 240 to 346.  I'd just go 240 Mon + 240 Tues with a slightly larger 4th of July jump Weds deflated by possible theater losses w/ Purge 2 opening Wednesday, and/or a usually large Thursday drop.  

 

[dxmatrixdt]

Jurassic World's Fri - Wed reported per location avg. translated to purchases/location @ $9.16 avg. purchase.

 

                            Sat       Sun  Mon   Tues   Weds

Friday - 1,056 + 1,213 + 970 + 359 + 449 + 299

 

a number of -10% off Wednesday gives Jurassic World 11.04 Thursday, 204.46 total.

 

I have it increasing to 400 purchases/venue on Friday, and +37.5% on Saturday to 550 purchases/venue (-55% last Sat.), and -20% to 440 purchases/venue on Sunday.

 

How does this look?  At average ticket price $9.16 at 4,485 location with 400 purchases/location on Friday would make a Friday of $16,433,040.  Jurassic World had Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday of 14.7, 18,4, and 12.3 with a projected -10% Thursday 11.04.

 

This makes a 57.1m weekend.  Rounding numbers, a projected 204.5 7-day gross after Thursday is reported and added 57.5 presents 262 million 10-day total.

 

Nonetheless, next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are within fair range of predicting besides how it will do the next three days.

 

In the second statement above, Mon, Tues, Weds looked like 359 ~360, 449 ~450, and 299 ~ 300.

Forth of July is next Wednesday and Monday + Tuesday should see lighter drops.  180 on Monday would be minus 50% off last Monday's 14.73 which is about 7.27m next Monday.  Giving it an identical 25% jump gives 9.08m next Tuesday, -50% last Tuesday.  Then Fourth of July Wednesday could see an increase to the same 299 it just had two days ago and 12.07m for the day maybe even tying The First Purge for first place on Wednesday.  For convenience, -10% off this # next Wednesday would be the same as what I am forecasting for Thursday now but on next Thursday making that 17 days above 10 million.  However, I went with -20% off of 299 purchases/venue on this at 9.69 next Thursday. Adding that all up makes 38.11 million.  Rounding down to 38 million and adding it to the 262m 10-day total projected after this weekend makes 300m 14-day total.  

 

With Ant-Man 2 opening, I assume Thursday would be the same as Friday in this scenario.  -200 theaters, 4285.  240 purchases/location next Friday would be -40% from 400.  300 purchases/location next Saturday would then be the same as what it made 2 days ago on Wednesday, what I am predicting it does the Wednesday after, and then once again on Saturday against Ant-Man.  then going -33% to 200/venue next Sunday makes 28.54 million from 4,285 theaters, $9.00 avg ticket price.  28.5m is roughly -50% of 57.5m and makes the total at 328.5m after the third weekend.  Then if it does half of that weekend during the weekdays for around 14.5m / 343m total and going for a similar amount again against Hotel Transylvania 3 and Skyscraper.  Weekdays should continue to be at least 0.5 of the weekend and could trend upwards.  By this point after a 14.5m 4th weekend, 357.5 total it just becomes a numbers game.  Maybe they keep it out a bit longer and secure another 10m in the 5th weekend making a push towards 400m more attainable.

[GraceRandolph]

4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

That's not funny Grace!

It’s a joke! Forgive me. Avatar is a masterpiece. 🌚