kayumanggi Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 100 M+ then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 (edited) We assume kids movies are generally marketed with an in-your-face approach to make it easier to appeal to them, but I'm wondering now if it's more to appeal to the... dumb adult audience. The initial ads for this that were mostly airing on the Disney Channel stayed true to the tone of the trailers, but the ones that have started airing during football games have been forced into that less enchanting mold. I remember an ad for Brave aired during the NFL Draft that was just ridiculously awful Edited November 9, 2015 by tribefan695 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Can't believe I used to doubt this movie's potential so much. I'm honestly now toying with the idea of it beating Shrek 2. Yes I know that's very unlikely, but I think 400+ is gonna happen now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 I'm guessing reactions are embargoed until after the Rex premiere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 (edited) 1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said: Can't believe I used to doubt this movie's potential so much. I'm honestly now toying with the idea of it beating Shrek 2. Yes I know that's very unlikely, but I think 400+ is gonna happen now. I don't think that's going to happen. If the tracking is right for the 3 day it's doing over 110m for the 5 day. I just don't see a near 4x multi for this, especially with SW stealing a lot of the family audience, plus Alvin 4 (not going to be huge, but probably a decent hit) in December. Remember, Frozen didn't have to compete with any animated movies in December. Still, I'm starting to think that 300m has a 50/50 chance now. It may clear that easily if the reviews are great. Edited November 9, 2015 by Jayhawk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 10 minutes ago, Jayhawk said: I don't think that's going to happen. If the tracking is right for the 3 day it's doing over 110m for the 5 day. I just don't see a near 4x multi for this, especially with SW stealing a lot of the family audience, plus Alvin 4 (not going to be huge, but probably a decent hit) in December. Remember, Frozen didn't have to compete with any animated movies in December. Still, I'm starting to think that 300m has a 50/50 chance now. It may clear that easily if the reviews are great. Um WOM would have to be horrid for it to pull a 110m+ 5 day and miss 300 over the Holidays. This is animation released during the Holidays we're talking about, legs are always good. I agree 400 still wouldn't be certain, only because of SW, but keep in mind that is PG-13 and TGD will still likely be a big pick for parents with kids under 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said: Um WOM would have to be horrid for it to pull a 110m+ 5 day and miss 300 over the Holidays. This is animation released during the Holidays we're talking about, legs are always good. I agree 400 still wouldn't be certain, only because of SW, but keep in mind that is PG-13 and TGD will still likely be a big pick for parents with kids under 8. I didn't say that I thought it would open to 110m 5 day though. That's just what it would be if the near 80m (presumably) 3 day tracking for the movie were correct. I currently think it's going to do under 100m 5 day. It certainly can do more, it just has to be IO great to get even close to 400m IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Thanksgiving openers seem to generally get about 30-40% of their DOM total over the 5-day. So if TGD is going to hit $110m, that puts its range at about 275-365. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 3 minutes ago, damienroc said: Thanksgiving openers seem to generally get about 30-40% of their DOM total over the 5-day. So if TGD is going to hit $110m, that puts its range at about 275-365. The big exception being that this is Pixar, the king of animation WOM. So I would expect the 5 day share to fall in that lower 30% range. It should be able to top IO if it opens to 110m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 There's an "avant-premiere" in a few hours at the Rex. It's the French version and reactions appear to be embargoed but maybe something will sneak out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 Ostensibly there's an embargo until tomorrow on reviews, but reactions are still coming out and indicating everything I was hoping for Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 44 minutes ago, tribefan695 said: Ostensibly there's an embargo until tomorrow on reviews, but reactions are still coming out and indicating everything I was hoping for Another smashing success from Pixar, twice in a year, hopefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 13th, not tomorrow. Got my dates mixed up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 56 minutes ago, tribefan695 said: Ostensibly there's an embargo until tomorrow on reviews, but reactions are still coming out and indicating everything I was hoping for What are the reactions saying/where can you find them. Can't find anything on twitter, but I could be looking in the wrong place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 You'll have to search voyage d'Arlo and translate from French Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowhite Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 5 hours ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said: Another smashing success from Pixar, twice in a year, hopefully. Thy skipped a year and spent boatloads redoing this. Glad it seems to deliver. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 6 minutes ago, kowhite said: Thy skipped a year and spent boatloads redoing this. Glad it seems to deliver. Lets just hope it makes a huge amount of bank to be considered profitable. The budget is probably their biggest to date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowhite Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 2 minutes ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said: Lets just hope it makes a huge amount of bank to be considered profitable. The budget is probably their biggest to date. Fortunately, it probably will. Maybe not their most profitable, this won't sell ungodly toys like Cars or Toy Story, but I don't see it losing any money. Even if people don't love it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 3 minutes ago, kowhite said: Fortunately, it probably will. Maybe not their most profitable, this won't sell ungodly toys like Cars or Toy Story, but I don't see it losing any money. Even if people don't love it. Better than nothing I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 2 minutes ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said: Lets just hope it makes a huge amount of bank to be considered profitable. The budget is probably their biggest to date. Fortunately, it probably will. Maybe not their most profitable, this won't sell ungodly toys like Cars or Toy Story, but I don't see it losing any money. Even if people don't love it. I don't know, those Arlo plushes seem to really be making the rounds. Consensus seems to now be that it's not as dramatically inventive as Inside Out but still funny and very touching, which I'd be fine with. Sohn hasn't been secretive about the film's influences or the simplicity of the narrative and I'm pretty certain they made exactly the film they wanted to make here. Personally I'm still expecting that I'll like it the better of the two, as I have my own issues with IO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
