Thursday Numbers - (5/23)

[Cooper Legion]

13 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Following pre-MDW weekly multi of:

CW 781+40*1.17=828M

IM3 781+40*1.32=834M

AoU 781+40*1.52=842M

IW 781+40*1.895=857M       

 

 

The correlation between pre-MDW weekly multi and Memorial Day week % drop is pretty strong. I think we’ll see roughly -32% for Endgame and adding about 1.66x ->850, then ~855 with Labor Day.

[Deja23]

12 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

@MadmenEndgame is now restricted from being able to access the site with his account.

Nice try, but you’re never going to be able to get rid of Shivampa and his many alts if that Not Cool reaction is anything to go by. 😂 

[Water Bottle]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The not cool react on this is priceless 

 

It's fantastic because now that account, as well as a whole bunch of his other alts, are now suspended from being able to access the site. I'd IP ban him but I think he switches IPs more than a baby switches diapers.

[keysersoze123]

44 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Following pre-MDW weekly multi of:

CW 781+40*1.17=828M

IM3 781+40*1.32=834M

AoU 781+40*1.52=842M

IW 781+40*1.895=857M       

 

 

why so complex math. Its number is almost the same as IW(same weekend as well). IW did another 73m  after pre memorial thursday and that is a good target if its grossing similar to it. So around 854-855 finish.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I frankly find those two words more insulting and more disruptive to the environment of this community more than anything IronJimbo has ever said. 

I don’t know much about that poster but couple that have come across have the same foul mouthed posts. But I don’t know why he feels similar to another poster who generally posts insults more often than not.

[Maximum Avery]

9 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I frankly find those two words more insulting and more disruptive to the environment of this community more than anything IronJimbo has ever said. 

If you prefer to live in a world where you allow REALLY transparent motives be disruptive then stop wondering what is wrong with the world... 

 

TTVOMJ

[Cooper Legion]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

why so complex math. Its number is almost the same as IW(same weekend as well). IW did another 73m  after pre memorial thursday and that is a good target if its grossing similar to it. So around 854-855 finish.

I just like to look at a larger assemblage of historical performances. There’s a good argument that it will follow IW closely from here, but also some room for worse late legs.      

 

If MDW goes well I will probably throw out CW for TA though. CW’s 45% MDW drop was very different than the rest of the large May MCUs.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[keysersoze123]

^^^ Makes sense.

it could go 3 ways

almost exactly mimic IW and finish around 854-855.
Could do 10% worse and finish around 846-848.
Benefit from late boost if and when Avatar WW is broken. Finish around ~860m. I would be surprised if it goes beyond those numbers.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Following pre-MDW weekly multi of:

CW 781+40*1.17=828M

IM3 781+40*1.32=834M

AoU 781+40*1.52=842M

IW 781+40*1.895=857M       

 

 

the first three had pre-MDW weekly as 3rd week I think, IW has 4th. EG make more sense.

[Cooper Legion]

51 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

the first three had pre-MDW weekly as 3rd week I think, IW has 4th. EG make more sense.

Yup, EG is the only one where it’s the same week of run. I think it’ll be closest to that. But I’ve been providing the others for comparison from the beginning and plan to ride them out to the end.

[andrewgr]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yup, EG is the only one where it’s the same week of run. I think it’ll be closest to that. But I’ve been providing the others for comparison from the beginning and plan to ride them out to the end.

I am predicting that EG will make less than IW did over the course of the next 2-3 weeks, but will surprise most of you by having longer legs.  I think it will stay in theaters longer than IW, and I think it will make noticeably more money in its long tail than IW did.  I'm going with $875M before its run is over, with much of the difference from the $850M or so that most are projecting being something like an extra $20M after week 10 or so.  Week 10 on, IW made around $25M; I think EG pulls in like $45M.

 

I have no numbers to back this up, and no movies to compare it to that had similar behavior.  I'm basing it mostly on intuition.  I won't be that disappointed if I'm wrong, it's a really great movie and has done really well at the Box Office regardless, but every now and then it's fun to play a hunch, and this is mine.

Edited May 25, 2019 by andrewgr
typo