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The Boy and the Heron | Hayao Miyazaki | Studio Ghibli | GKIDS | NA Debut at TIFF | WINNER OF THE OSCAR FOR BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

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8 hours ago, Danhjpn said:

I wish the Academy members watched this film rather than "I will vote for the film my kids like" 

And they will watch this one. Thats why I would be utterly shocked for it to lose Animated, and why I think BP nom is in the cards if it ticks the same high-concept auteur boxes for them that it clearly has for critics. 

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2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

And they will watch this one. Thats why I would be utterly shocked for it to lose Animated, and why I think BP nom is in the cards if it ticks the same high-concept auteur boxes for them that it clearly has for critics. 

I think you’re really overestimating academy members love for cinema 

 

They watch and cares only for what spends a lot in exclusive promotion for them

 

I do think the animation branch will go hard for it and even some technicals areas, but they’re not enough to get it to BP or BD without a very hard push from it’s studio / distributor. 
 

Ghibli won’t spend to try some American recognition and i doubt GKids have cash to spend much with this. Miyazaki himself appearing for them would help but we all know he won’t.

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7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think you’re really overestimating academy members love for cinema 

 

They watch and cares only for what spends a lot in exclusive promotion for them

 

I do think the animation branch will go hard for it and even some technicals areas, but they’re not enough to get it to BP or BD without a very hard push from it’s studio / distributor. 
 

Ghibli won’t spend to try some American recognition and i doubt GKids have cash to spend much with this. Miyazaki himself appearing for them would help but we all know he won’t.

I think Miyazaki is way too respected in these kinds of circles (again Spirited’s win was nuts at the time for an anime), for most academy members to blow this off. If you take Academy Member A, who let’s say is the type that thinks animation is “for kids” and just blows off the category and votes for the “popular” one, why would said person change their mind and watch a mainstream animated superhero movie (Spidey)?
 

They wouldn’t, it’s still “for kids cartoons” to that person. But an adult drama art-house original about death from a respected filmmaker? Yeah, that person might actually give this one a chance. It’s that visibility I’m banking on in hopes for the upset BP nom (and the 10 field now helps a lot too). 

Edited by MovieMan89
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9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

And they will watch this one. Thats why I would be utterly shocked for it to lose Animated, and why I think BP nom is in the cards if it ticks the same high-concept auteur boxes for them that it clearly has for critics. 

I could see this winning best animated but a BP nom is a pretty far reach. Even Pinocchio last year didn't get anywhere close to that and it was from a filmmaker they like more who actively promoted it on the awards circuit. One of the benefits for the Academy having an Animated Feature category is it gives them an excuse to ignore those films for BP.

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I don’t get this GDT comparison, that’s been brought up before? He is not even in the same stratosphere with anyone as Miyazaki when it comes to animation legacy in the industry. Not to mention he has never been an Academy darling, people have already developed amnesia about how wild Shape of Water’s success was that year. It was a massive massive shock coming from the Acadmey, and a true “underdog” story.  It was not because he’s an Academy darling.

 

Anyways, I do wish Miyazaki coulda let the dust settle a bit before the “I’m coming out of retirement again!!” thing. The whole “final movie” narrative and moniker for this absolutely would have given it the edge to get into BP it might now not have imo. I still put it like 12th in the ranking of likelihood, so definitely still a chance there. 

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GDT is a darling because of Shape of Water. He wasn't before that film. He's beloved enough that Nightmare Alley got a best picture nom even though there wasn't much love for that film. It's not about who has a bigger legacy in animation, because the academy doesn't really care about animation. It's also not about which one is the better filmmaker because the academy doesn't really care about filmmakers in animation that much. The Oscars are about optics, glad-handing and the prejudices and foibles of its membership. It's not a meritocracy.

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13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think Miyazaki is way too respected in these kinds of circles (again Spirited’s win was nuts at the time for an anime), for most academy members to blow this off. If you take Academy Member A, who let’s say is the type that thinks animation is “for kids” and just blows off the category and votes for the “popular” one, why would said person change their mind and watch a mainstream animated superhero movie (Spidey)?
 

They wouldn’t, it’s still “for kids cartoons” to that person. But an adult drama art-house original about death from a respected filmmaker? Yeah, that person might actually give this one a chance. It’s that visibility I’m banking on in hopes for the upset BP nom (and the 10 field now helps a lot too). 

The thing is i doubt Spidey will get there too. 
 

We are in a somewhat similar situation last year with Pinocchio. 
 

Very respected auteur, previously winner, highly acclaimed animated movie that also deals with death, war, fascism etc (on RT they’ll likely finish with the same reception actually) and Netflix actively pushing hard in campaign with Del Toro participating in everything. 
 

Still ended up winning only animated feature and no nomination in the higher categories despite 10 slots. And last year competition wasn’t strong like this year because they was still dealing with pandemic problems in distribution. 
 

Last year i was actually hopeful animated movies could finally crackle it without Pixar behind it, didn’t happen. This year i won’t be disappointed again, i would love to see Miyazaki there but it’ll be even harder without a proper big campaign. 
 

 

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RE: ZeroHour And Spirited proved Miyazaki was one of the only truly respected animated filmmakers among circles like the Academy two decades ago already. With anime no less, something that would have been totally scoffed at by your Academy types back then. If that’s not a darling of the medium, I don’t know what is. This movie is on TS3 level western critical reception, that’s insane considering what it took for that movie to achieve that (a deep level of being rooted in our pop culture and decades of culmination to a story). There is no more respected filmmaker in animation today than Miyazaki, it’s that simple. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The thing is i doubt Spidey will get there too. 
 

We are in a somewhat similar situation last year with Pinocchio. 
 

Very respected auteur, previously winner, highly acclaimed animated movie that also deals with death, war, fascism etc (on RT they’ll likely finish with the same reception actually) and Netflix actively pushing hard in campaign with Del Toro participating in everything. 
 

Still ended up winning only animated feature and no nomination in the higher categories despite 10 slots. And last year competition wasn’t strong like this year because they was still dealing with pandemic problems in distribution. 
 

Last year i was actually hopeful animated movies could finally crackle it without Pixar behind it, didn’t happen. This year i won’t be disappointed again, i would love to see Miyazaki there but it’ll be even harder without a proper big campaign. 
 

 

I agree campaigning would make it far more feasible. Still don’t think it’s impossible by any stretch though. I always knew Pinocchio had 0% chance of ever getting a BP nom, so it truly surprises me anyone was hinging animation breaking through with the Academy on that… 

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26 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don’t get this GDT comparison, that’s been brought up before? He is not even in the same stratosphere with anyone as Miyazaki when it comes to animation legacy in the industry. Not to mention he has never been an Academy darling, people have already developed amnesia about how wild Shape of Water’s success was that year. It was a massive massive shock coming from the Acadmey, and a true “underdog” story.  It was not because he’s an Academy darling.

 

Anyways, I do wish Miyazaki coulda let the dust settle a bit before the “I’m coming out of retirement again!!” thing. The whole “final movie” narrative and moniker for this absolutely would have given it the edge to get into BP it might now not have imo. I still put it like 12th in the ranking of likelihood, so definitely still a chance there. 

But Oscars as a whole doesn’t care about legacy in animation history, they don’t care about animation at all for this to be a thing. 
 

Del Toro definitely is a darling now, he get 2 best picture nominees in a row, winning both top prizes for one and he did beat everyone else in the animated category last year afterall.
 

He was actually in a better place with the academy than Miyazaki, with better distribution campaign, way more money to spend with award season, similar reception and themes with his movie. 
 

Pinocchio even had something How Do You Live probably won’t because it’ll go to Spider: lots of wins with guilds, including the PGA.
 

It’s a very appropriate comparison overall. I’m 100% certain Miyazaki is a bigger deal with the animation branch and i think he’ll win it despite not doing anything (which would proof of this love). But with academy overall Del Toro was bigger and was snubbed with a way stronger scenario for him. 

Anyway, i don’t think you’ll change your mind so i’ll stop here but i really think you should consider some of these things to avoid frustration when the likely scenario happens: neither Spider or Miyazaki in BP

 

 

Edited by ThomasNicole
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I just think all you have to do is list out what the films actually are and you see how much Heron smokes Pinocchio in terms of being “Oscar bait.” Original adult drama vs umpteenth adaptation of a well known children’s fairy tale (very tied to Disney no less) is just the tip of the iceberg there. The list goes on and on in favor of ticking Academy boxes for Heron that Pinocchio never could. And yeah, it’s animation, so at the end of the day the chance to be ignored in BP will ALWAYS be there. The chance was there for TS3 too. 

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11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I just think all you have to do is list out what the films actually are and you see how much Heron smokes Pinocchio in terms of being “Oscar bait.” Original adult drama vs umpteenth adaptation of a well known children’s fairy tale (very tied to Disney no less) is just the tip of the iceberg there. The list goes on and on in favor of ticking Academy boxes for Heron that Pinocchio never could. And yeah, it’s animation, so at the end of the day the chance to be ignored in BP will ALWAYS be there. The chance was there for TS3 too. 

How a surrealist movie with a very cryptic plot is Oscar bait? I can’t even remember the last time a movie without a very clear and strong plot ended up nominated for best picture. 
 

And i mean, i didn’t see it yet (i imagine you still didn’t catch it too), but from everything released and reviewed, this is a straight up fantasy, one of the most ignored genres in Oscar history, not an adult drama (a description i think The Wind Rises would fit better). 

 

Pinocchio is indeed an adaptation of a tired story but it’s a highly deconstructed version of it that ended up bringing themes a lot closer to Miyazaki work than it’s original fairytale. 
 

At least from reading, both movies seems very similar imo, but Heron goes way harder on the fantasy cryptic surreal aspect. I’m very excited especially because of this, but i really don’t see how this is an Oscar bait, a description that is usually for very boring, restrained and classicist types of filmmaking.  
 

I’m being very genuine here, i think Oscar bait is the last description i would ever think when it comes to Miyazaki movies. Maybe i’m missing something with your argument but i’m trying to understand and i really can’t haha.

Edited by ThomasNicole
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I hope you don't put any money on predicting awards

 

Foreign film, not submitted for international picture by Japan, animated film, miyazaki won't campaign, studio likely doesn't have the money or will to either nor is it likely to have a big box office story to go with it

 

I'm not going to say this is "impossible" because crazier things have happened in life but this has pretty much won the "is not getting a nomination for BP" bingo - and I am not even sure it is the frontrunner for animated BP. Netflix and Del toro tried way harder with Pinocchio, which already had more odds to begin with by not being foreign, and it still fell flat.

Edited by JustLurking
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