The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[SpiderByte]

 

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[Willowra]

ERCboxoffice is saying that The Marvels' long-range forecast is 60–70 m OW and 170m total. If this is BOP's long-range forecast (if they have access to it), then Marvel is heading for disaster at the box office.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Willowra

[TheFlatLannister]

26 minutes ago, Willowra said:

ERCboxoffice is staying that The Marvel's long-range forecast is 60–70 m OW and 170m total. If this is BOP's long-range forecast (if they have access to it), then Marvel is heading for disaster at the box office.

That's a reasonable range. I'm expecting very tepid tracking (pre-embargo) across several regions. With a $170M DOM finish, we probably would be looking at something just over $350M WW

[Bob Train]

Disney should move it up a week so that it gets 2-week PLF window instead of 1 week, If they don't move it, it's gonna drop 70% 2nd weekend because kids will watch Trolls and Hunger Games will take many screens.

[HummingLemon]

43 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

That's a reasonable range. I'm expecting very tepid tracking (pre-embargo) across several regions. With a $170M DOM finish, we probably would be looking at something just over $350M WW

$350M WW would be a complete unmitigated disaster, holy shit.

[The GOAT]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

That's a reasonable range. I'm expecting very tepid tracking (pre-embargo) across several regions. With a $170M DOM finish, we probably would be looking at something just over $350M WW

Can see Aquaman doing the same.

Then we can confirm that genre is dying

[ChipDerby]

1 hour ago, Willowra said:

ERCboxoffice is saying that The Marvels' long-range forecast is 60–70 m OW and 170m total. If this is BOP's long-range forecast (if they have access to it), then Marvel is heading for disaster at the box office.

 

Hey do you know what the long range forecast is based on

[YM!]

1 hour ago, Willowra said:

ERCboxoffice is saying that The Marvels' long-range forecast is 60–70 m OW and 170m total. If this is BOP's long-range forecast (if they have access to it), then Marvel is heading for disaster at the box office.

I follow ERCBoxoffice on Twitter but don't recall him saying anything about Marvels. Do you mind sharing your source?

[HummingLemon]

8 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Hey do you know what the long range forecast is based on

Exactly

 

Pre-sales aren't on sale yet, the long range forecast is literally just a guess right now

 

 

[Willowra]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

I follow ERCBoxoffice on Twitter but don't recall him saying anything about Marvels. Do you mind sharing your source?

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/our-massive-fall-2023-preview-plus-predictions-for/id1489892648?i=1000626293248

[SpiderByte]

There isn't any tracking beyond random guesses this far out. Presales won't even begin for a month. Any guesses now are based on "vibes", not data. Certainly nothing evidenced based for the claim of this being below Captain America 1 worldwide 

Edited September 17, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Valonqar]

55 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

$350M WW would be a complete unmitigated disaster, holy shit.

 

Geez people you are so naive. This is a mathematical imposssibility. That's below Ant Man 3 and Ant Man movies had the smallest boxoffice of all Marvel IPs pre-pandemic. No way this drops from 1.1B to 350M lmaooo c'mon! I don't care for this movie but bad math always riles me up.

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

 

Geez people you are so naive. This is a mathematical imposssibility. That's below Ant Man 3 and Ant Man movies had the smallest boxoffice of all Marvel IPs pre-pandemic. No way this drops from 1.1B to 350M lmaooo c'mon! I don't care for this movie but bad math always riles me up.

The first movie was helped by being an appetizer for Endgame. Similar to how Alice in Wonderland was helped by being the first 3D blockbuster after Avatar.

 

Neither of those movies would have grossed anything close to what they did if not for that.

[Bob Train]

15 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

There isn't any tracking beyond random guesses this far out. Presales won't even begin for a month. Any guesses now are based on "vibes", not data. Certainly nothing evidenced based for the claim of this being below Captain America 1 worldwide 

I agree, this industry tracking is usually garbage, they had Oppenheimer at $30m OW or something lol.

 

 

[YM!]

19 minutes ago, Willowra said:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/our-massive-fall-2023-preview-plus-predictions-for/id1489892648?i=1000626293248

They also said Dune 2 would've just done $50m OW.

[SpiderByte]

Black Widow was a hybrid release, mid pandemic, and it made it over 350. Marvels two worst reviewed movies, Eternals and Quantumania, both cleared 400. Unless the reviews are just Dark Phoenix type pans I don't even know how thatd be possible.

 

Plus let's be honest, if there's any lesson to be learned this past few months it's that projects with high-profile female leads have been overperforming. If Marvel genuinely felt they had a total disaster on their hands they'd have used the strike as an excuse to delay it

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

The first movie was helped by being an appetizer for Endgame. Similar to how Alice in Wonderland was helped by being the first 3D blockbuster after Avatar.

 

Neither of those movies would have grossed anything close to what they did if not for that.

 

while I agree that The Marvels will drop due to CM being inflated by Endgame, AIW is not a good comparison cause Marvel has much more loyal fans. Even freakin Quantumania managed 400M and those movies never sniffed 1B. 

[SpiderByte]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

They also said Dune 2 would've just done $50m OW.

Lunacy. Only a 10 mil jump with better release conditions? If it weren't for the strike they could have launched a full promo campaign and done way, way above that.

[HummingLemon]

10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Geez people you are so naive. This is a mathematical imposssibility. That's below Ant Man 3 and Ant Man movies had the smallest boxoffice of all Marvel IPs pre-pandemic. No way this drops from 1.1B to 350M lmaooo c'mon! I don't care for this movie but bad math always riles me up.

If it comes true, then it'll be a disaster.

 

It probably won't come true, idk how this somehow drops from $1128 to $350