Captain America: Brave New World | February 14, 2025 | Harrison Ford is General Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross

[Kon]

4 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Christ at this rate even if it does like 400 you guys will be saying it's overperforming the way you guys talk about this. 

Well, people really thought The Marvels couldn't make under 400M. 

 

Now, we're on the point where 400M for Captain America 4 won't be so bad.

[SpiderByte]

Are these predictions based on literally anything other than "it has reshoots scheduled" and "The Marvels did badly"

[Kon]

8 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Are these predictions based on literally anything other than "it has reshoots scheduled" and "The Marvels did badly"

I mean, The Marvels set a precedent that MCU movies could make less than 250M. It has also shown a current weakness on the MCU brand to attract people.

 

As the MCU as a brand seems pretty weak, Captain America 4 will depend on the characters popularity, but I doubt Sam has so much popularity

Edited May 3 by Kon

[HummingLemon496]

10 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Are these predictions based on literally anything other than "it has reshoots scheduled" and "The Marvels did badly"

Another movie about a character most people don't care about tied into Disney+ shows, and it barely cracked 200M globally. The MCU is now on the same level as the DCEU where there is no floor. 

Edited May 3 by HummingLemon496

[SpiderByte]

Yeah the circumstances are completely different with the Marvels. There's no half year strike that keeps the entire cast from promoting the movie, for one.

[interiorgatordecorator]

9 minutes ago, Kon said:

I mean, The Marvels set a precedent that MCU movies could make less than 250M. It has also shown a current weakness on the MCU brand to attract people.

 

As the MCU as a brand seems pretty weak, Captain America 4 will depend on the characters popularity, but I doubt Sam has so much popularity

 

I myself thought that the base mcu fan base was worth around 350 million dollars 

[SpiderByte]

9 minutes ago, Kon said:

I mean, The Marvels set a precedent that MCU movies could make less than 250M. It has also shown a current weakness on the MCU brand to attract people.

 

As the MCU as a brand seems pretty weak, Captain America 4 will depend on the characters popularity, but I doubt Sam has so much popularity

This "MCU brand is dead" stuff is already stale with 97 and it'll feel ancient just by July. Looking at the remaining 2024 schedule Marvels about to go on a hit streak.

[John Marston]

51 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I don't wanna say it but I will:

 

When we get the bombs list of 2025, The Marvels will no longer be the biggest bomb Deadline has ever reported. 

 

 

think it can get to 300M but definitely a massive bomb

[Kon]

2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

This "MCU brand is dead" stuff is already stale with 97 and it'll feel ancient just by July. Looking at the remaining 2024 schedule Marvels about to go on a hit streak.

X-Men 97 or Deadpool 3 won't really tell you anything abour MCU brand popularity. It just tells you that popular characters would attract audience interested on that characters.

 

If I was sure Sam as Captain America was a pretty popular character between fans, I would also say Captain America 4 will be a success.

 

 

PS: Now, I know X-Men 97 seems to be popular for an animated show, but the numbers of views doesn't seem so big.

 

[SpiderByte]

4 minutes ago, Kon said:

Deadpool 3 won't really tell you anything abour MCU brand popularity.

Why do people keep pretending that it magically doesn't count, like they pretend Guardians 3 didn't count last year. Any studio that regularly has an 800 mil + grosser a year isn't dead, and wouldn't be if it were any other studio

Edited May 3 by SpiderByte

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, SpiderByte said:

Why do people keep pretending that it magically doesn't count, like they pretend Guardians 3 didn't count last year. Any studio that regularly has an 800 mil + grosser a year isn't dead

A franchise where 6 of the last 7 entires opened to $100M+ is definitely not dead. That I will absolutely agree with you on. NWH to GOTG 3 is a streak of 6 $100M openers, literally longer than anything in the Infinity Saga and the longest streak in Hollywood history. This record will probably not ever be defeated.

[Arlborn]

When this thread suddenly came alive just now I thought a teaser had dropped or something, or at least some pictures. But no, it's just the exactly same discussion we've had for the past couple of years regarding MCU. Oh well, traditions I guess.

 

It does make me miss a certain member though.

 

Edited May 3 by Arlborn

[SpiderByte]

The Marvels is hard to gauge accurately much in the same way, say, Black Widow is hard to judge fairly. Well never know how well both those movies would have done if they were released under normal conditions. They rolled the dice that the strike would end early enough for them to both do promotion and still snag Dunes screens and it didn't work. And it wasn't the only release to suffer from the strikes. Using it as "the new normal" just because it's the most recent doesn't work.

Edited May 3 by SpiderByte

[John Marston]

8 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Why do people keep pretending that it magically doesn't count, like they pretend Guardians 3 didn't count last year. Any studio that regularly has an 800 mil + grosser a year isn't dead, and wouldn't be if it were any other studio

 

saying Guardians 3 or Deadpool has anything to do with Cap 4 or Thunderbolts doing well is like say No Way Home being huge guaranteed The Marvels success. 

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, Arlborn said:

When this thread suddenly came alive just now I thought a teaser had dropped or something, or at least some pictures. But no, it's just the exactly same discussion we've had for the past couple of years regarding MCU. Oh well, traditions I guess.

 

It does make me miss a certain member though.

Sorry if I was coming off as too toxic. I'm a Marvel fan and I do not want this movie to bomb but after what happened to The Marvels, I don't have any hope. 

[SpiderByte]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

 

saying Guardians 3 or Deadpool has anything to do with Cap 4 or Thunderbolts doing well is like say No Way Home being huge guaranteed The Marvels success. 

So to be clear, your argument is the MCU having hits has no impact on future releases, but misses somehow do.

[YM!]

I think it’s fair to think BNW behaves more like another Phase 1-2 origin than a Cap sequel less so because of The Marvels bombing and more so due it being Sam’s first lead movie. Same goes for Thunderbolts and Yelena. That said, I think BNW has some aces up its sleeves with the Hulk concept as a way to breathe new life and could benefit from BHM. However, think quality is going to be the make or break for it. 

Edited May 3 by YM!

[Kon]

13 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

The Marvels is hard to gauge accurately much in the same way, say, Black Widow is hard to judge fairly. Well never know how well both those movies would have done if they were released under normal conditions. They rolled the dice that the strike would end early enough for them to both do promotion and still snag Dunes screens and it didn't work. And it wasn't the only release to suffer from the strikes. Using it as "the new normal" just because it's the most recent doesn't work.

The strikes means there couldn't be cast promotion. In other words, The Marvels depended on MCU brand strenght and characters popularity to attract people. The fact The Marvels has so poor box office shows how weak The MCU brand is.

 

Five Nights at Freddy could make 79M OW without cast promotion. 

 

 

PS: Well, if Captain America 4 is a bomb, I guess people would stop using the strikes as an excuse.

[YM!]

16 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

The Marvels is hard to gauge accurately much in the same way, say, Black Widow is hard to judge fairly. Well never know how well both those movies would have done if they were released under normal conditions. They rolled the dice that the strike would end early enough for them to both do promotion and still snag Dunes screens and it didn't work. And it wasn't the only release to suffer from the strikes. Using it as "the new normal" just because it's the most recent doesn't work.

Though I agree The Marvels was a death of a thousand cuts and strikes did effect it, FNAF opened to 80m two weeks prior which aimed for a similar demographic and a smaller fanbase than the Marvel brand. And on top of that both Hunger Games and Aquaman were able to pull it together.

[SpiderByte]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

Though I agree The Marvels was a death of a thousand cuts and strikes did effect it, FNAF opened to 80m two weeks prior which aimed for a similar demographic and a smaller fanbase than the Marvel brand. And on top of that both Hunger Games and Aquaman were able to pull it together.

Fnaf also had a budget of seven dollars. Both Hunger Games and Aquaman didn't have their casts legally banned from promoting the movie.