poland Poland Box Office | Avatar: The Way of Water is HUGE

[Pypa94]

Saturday cinemas are closed whole day and on christmas day are closed till 3pm 

Most movies will drop 80-90% Rouge One after very good OW could drop most of them

[Pypa94]

In 2011 when the same situation was like this year on weekend 23-25th all movies from top 10 (8 movies also 2 premieres) had drops like 82-90%.

First movie Listy do M. very popular there (7 times in a row top of chart) dropped 87% but its previous weekend adm was 120k not 385k like Rouge One so I guess falling more like 90-95% is possible. Altough the trend since 2011 and numbers of tickets sold is rising year-by-year, we could see some kind of "phenomenon" and this will be drop less than mentioned before 87%.

After that weekend we have next with limited cinemas opening hours too and in 2011 top 10 has awesome increase but not so good numbers as years with long weekend like New Year's Eve on Friday or Thursday.

Listy do M. remain their 1st place for 8th time and increase 173% (I can see Rouge One increasing about 250% because it will be his 3rd weekend not 8th), other movies increased from 114% to 293% and 2 premiers even more 398% and incredible 724% (but still their numbers were shitty)

 

Forecast 23-25th (reasonable) (4 premiers on 23th and also 3 premiers on 25th)

1. Rouge One -93% 26,9k

2-3. Passengers, A Monster Calls new 6k

4. Pitbull. Dangerous Women -86% 5,8k

5. Królowa Śniegu 3 (some kind of animation) new 5k

6-7. Christmas Office Party, Collateral Beauty new 4k

8. Moana -90% 3,7k

9. Fantastic Beast... -88% 2,5k

10. Trolls -90% 2,05k

 

Well shit I really don't know how new movies will manage over weekend.

Passengers could either good as above or flop near FB numbers.

 

Assuming great popularity of Rouge One and Pitbull I think both of them could have slice better drops maybe more like

RO -87% 49,95k

Pitbull - 80% 8,28k

 

But I hope and bringing hope is important to Rebels that RO drop will be less than 90% and less than 85% for Pitbull. 

Still is gonna be one of worst weekend in year (similar to Easter weekend) but it has chance to beat 77k total from Easter with good performance of RO.

In 2011 similar weekend was, I guess, the worst in industry history (well at least since previous such weekend - only 48k total)

[Pypa94]

Poland Box Office December 23–25, 2016 (US $1 = 4.2159 Polish Zloty)

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TW LW Movie Studio Weekend Gross Change Screens Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week 1 1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Disney $439,744 -83.9% 514 - $856 $4,477,452 2 2 - Passengers UIP $100,618 - 156 - $645 $100,618 - 3 2 Pitbull. Niebezpieczne Kobiety Kino S'Wiat $56,738 -72.2% 350 - $162 $13,328,617 7 4 N The Snow Queen 3: Fire and Ice Kino S'Wiat $45,888 - 151 - $304 $45,888 1 5 3 Office Christmas Party Monolith $24,688 -84.2% 141 -10 $175 $884,796 3 6 4 Moana Disney $21,454 -85.1% 227 - $95 $2,004,190 5 7 - Radin! Monolith $20,889 - 85 - $246 $20,889 - 8 6 Trolls Cinepix $15,334 -84.7% 229 +120 $67 $3,561,872 8 9 5 Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them WB $13,291 -87.0% 290 - $46 $4,151,578 6 10 - A Monster Calls Monolith $9,991 - 77 - $130 $9,991 - 11 13 Nocturnal Animals UPI $4,000 -57.4% 10 -7 $400 $295,271 6 12 16 Doctor Strange Disney $7 -99.8% n/a - n/a $2,460,927 9

[Pypa94]

Wow! I totally underestimated power of Rouge One!

Drop is not that shit at all!

In few minutes there will be table with admissions

 

[Pypa94]

		Box Office	Weekend no. 52	2016			Weekend 23th-25th of December
No.	LW	Title	Distributor	OW adm (Fri-Sun)	No days of OW	OW adm	Adm total	Screens
1	1	Rouge One – A Star Wars Story	Disney	77 448			773 087	514
2	new	Passengers	UIP	20 394	1	20 394	24 428	156
3	2	Pitbull. Dangerous women (local)	Kino Świat	11 500			2 701 544	350
4	new	Snezhnaya koroleva 3. Ogon i led (The Snow Queen 3: Fire and Ice)	Kino Świat	9 301	3	9 301	9 301	151
5	4	Christmas Office Party	Monolith Films	5 004			179 337	141
6	3	Moana	Disney	4 580			532 556	227
7	new	Radin!	Monolith Films	4 234	1	4 234	6 768	85
8	6	Trolls	Imprerial - Cinepix	3 108			721 947	229
9	5	Fantastic Beast And Where to Find Them	Warner Bros. Poland	2 694			841 473	290
10	new	A Monster Calls	Monolith Films	2 025	1	2 025	5 318	77

 

[Pypa94]

Forecast 23-25th (reasonable) (4 premiers on 23th and also 3 premiers on 25th)

1. Rouge One -93% 26,9k

2-3. Passengers, A Monster Calls new 6k

4. Pitbull. Dangerous Women -86% 5,8k

5. Królowa Śniegu 3 (some kind of animation) new 5k

6-7. Christmas Office Party, Collateral Beauty new 4k

8. Moana -90% 3,7k

9. Fantastic Beast... -88% 2,5k

10. Trolls -90% 2,05k

 

 

Actuals 23-25th vs forecast

1. Rouge One 77,45k -79,8% (3-day)/-83,0% (4-day)  [+50,55k +188%]

2. Passengers new 20,3k [+14k +238%]

3. Pitbull 11,5k -72,2% [+5,7k +49,6%]

4. Snezhnaya koroleva 3. Ogon i led (The Snow Queen 3: Fire and Ice) new 9,3k [+4,3k +86%]

5. Christmas Office Party 5k -83,9% [+1k +25,1%]

6. Moana 4,58k -85,6% [+0,88k +23,8%]

7. Radin! new 4,23k

8. Trolls 3,1k -84,8% [+1,05k +51,6%]

9. Fantastic Beast... 2,69k -86,99% [+0,194k +7,8%]

10. A Monster Calls new 2,025k [-3,975k -66,25%]

 

[Pypa94]

TOP 10 2016 admissions

1. Pitbull. Niebezpieczne kobiety (local) – 2,77 mln

2. Planeta Singli (local) – 1,9 mln

3. Ice Age 5 – 1,5 mln

4. Pitbull. Nowe porządki (local) – 1,43 mln

5. Wołyń (local) – 1,4 mln

6. The Secret Life of Pets – 1,4 mln

7. Zootopia – 1,3 mln

8. Rouge One – 1,278 mln*

9. Bridget Jones 3 – 1,2 mln

10. 7 rzeczy, których nie wiecie o facetach (local) – 1,14 mln

* still in release

[Pypa94]

Last weekend Rouge One has 110 618 (+30% up from last wknd) adm

Total 1 278 132

 

Record breaking year in admissions confirmed (probably in gross too but we have to wait to be sure) after 1989!

 

51 573 282  (+15,4%) vs 44 695 011 in 2015

 

38 426 809 population in Poland in 2016

 

1,34 visits in cinema per capita vs 1,16 in 2015

 

Biggest bump since 2009

 

More details soon

 

 

[Pypa94]

Last year TFA has 2 058 857 on similar time

so Rouge One it's about 62% of TFA

TFA end up with 2 993 426

Rouge One should end about 1,85 mln #3 of 2016

Which of course is great and it has already become 3rd Star Wars movie in adm. During next weekend it is going to beat Episode I first run and after weekend also re-release.

[Pypa94]

		Box Office	Weekend no. 53	2016/2017			Weekend 30th of December-1st of January
No.	LW	Title	Distributor	OW adm (Fri-Sun)	No days of OW	OW adm	Adm total	Screens
1	1	Rouge One – A Star Wars Story	Disney	110 618			1 278 132	514
2	2	Passengers	UIP	48 762			226 188	156
3	new	Collateral Beauty	Warner Bros. Poland	38 050	3	38 050	74 510	127
4	4	Snezhnaya koroleva 3. Ogon i led (The Snow Queen 3: Fire and Ice)	Kino Świat	32 883			125 810	151
5	7	Radin!	Monolith Films	19 318			59 246	85
6	6	Moana	Disney	19 152			598 130	227
7	3	Pitbull. Dangerous women (local)	Kino Świat	17 299			2 739 108	350
8	8	Trolls	Imprerial - Cinepix	13 248			767 965	229
9	new	Paterson	Gutek Film	11 845	3	11 845	24 686	59
10	10	A Monster Calls	Monolith Films	7 745			29 044	77

Edited January 5, 2017 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

In week 26th-29th

 

R1 - 394 427 adm (x3,56 of wkd 30th-1st)

Passengers - 152 998 (x3,14)

Collateral Beauty - 36 460 (previews) (x0,96)

The Snow Queen 3: Fire and Ice - 83 626 (x2,54)

Radin! - 33 160 (x1,73)

Moana - 46 422 (x2,43)

Pitbull - 20 265 (x1,17)

Trolls - 32 770 (x2,47)

Paterson - 12 841 (previews) (x1,08)

A Monster Calls - 19 274 (x2,49)

 

Awesome week for R1

Also great for Passengers

Collateral Beauty has great previews

Good multiple for Snow Queen, Moana, Trolls and A Monster Calls

But A Monster Calls has shitty numbers

Moana is dissapointing too, Trolls beats it (overall)

Great multiple for Paterson but well is nothing to say about numbers though

 

 

[Pypa94]

23-25th vs 30th-1st

R1 +42,83%

Passengers +139,1%

The Snow Queen 3: Fire and Ice +253,54%

Radin! +356,26%

Moana +318,17%

Pitbull +50,43%

Trolls +326,25%

A Monster Calls +282,47%

 

Good for R1 (% is small but good numbers)

Ok for Passengers (well % seems good but let's remember that last week it has only 1 day OW)

Other (expect old Pitbull) better rises than in 2011

[Pypa94]

Presales Assasin's Creed IMAX

 

Friday
	Warszawa		Katowice		Kraków		Łódź		Poznań
	364		365		374		398		409
11:15	51	14,01%	69	18,90%	29	7,75%	42	10,55%	64	15,65%
16:30	104	28,57%	109	29,86%	70	18,72%	66	16,58%	83	20,29%
19:00	76	20,88%	77	21,10%	62	16,58%	92	23,12%	67	16,38%
21:30	31	8,52%	22	6,03%	15	4,01%	39	9,80%	17	4,16%
	262		277		176		239		231

[Pypa94]

Friday	Rouge One IMAX
	Warszawa		Katowice		Kraków		Łódź		Poznań
	364		365		374		398		409
13:45	218	59,89%	157	43,01%	125	33,42%	122	30,65%	141	34,47%
	218		157		125		122		141

[Pypa94]

Rouge One lost 4 shows a day in 5 IMAX

R1 - 5 shows

Assasin's Creed - 20 shows

 

Next weekend 13-15th

The Great Wall is coming to IMAX - it should get 3 or 4 shows

R1 should stay with one and Assasin's Creed also with one (maybe one of them will drop out most likely R1 but bad numbers for AC could drop out it instead)

 

[Pypa94]

Maybe AC has more shows in IMAX but R1 has more in "normal" cinemas

4DX 5 cities, 3 shows for AC, 2 shows for R1 = 15 vs 10 for AC

 

But presales are for R1!

 

here is from two biggest cities

 

4DX
Friday	Assasin's Creed
	Warszawa		Kraków
	140		140
12:45	45	32,14%	26	18,57%
18:00	34	24,29%	31	22,14%
20:30	35	25,00%	16	11,43%
	114		73
	Rouge One
	140		140
10:00	69	49,29%	36	25,71%
15:15	47	33,57%	43	30,71%
	116		79

 

Worth to say that 10:00 am is dubb

[Pypa94]

Poland Box Office December 30–January 1, 2017

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TW LW Movie Studio Weekend Gross Change Screens Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week 1 1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Disney $611,385 +39.0% n/a -514 n/a $6,628,768 3 2 N Passengers (2016) UIP $276,076 - 160 - $1,725 $1,158,931 1 3 N Collateral Beauty WB $189,010 - 127 - $1,488 $370,121 1 4 4 The Snow Queen 3: Fire and Ice Kino S'Wiat $163,343 +256.0% 151 - $1,082 $624,949 2 5 7 Radin! Monolith $95,960 +359.4% 85 - $1,129 $294,299 1 6 6 Moana Disney $88,331 +311.7% n/a -227 n/a $2,263,002 6 7 3 Pitbull. Niebezpieczne Kobiety Kino S'Wiat $85,931 +51.5% 350 - $246 $13,755,271 8 8 8 Trolls Cinepix $65,808 +329.2% 229 - $287 $337,609 9 9 N Paterson Gutek $58,839 - 59 - $997 $122,625 1 10 10 A Monster Calls Monolith $38,473 +285.1% 77 - $500 $144,273 1 11 5 Office Christmas Party Monolith $15,073 -39.0% 66 -75 $228 $768,455 4 12 11 Nocturnal Animals UPI $3,421 -14.5% 9 -1 $380 $305,538 7 13 - Allied PPI $2,103 - 14 - $150 $732,657 6 14 - Arrival Sony $1,755 - 3 - $585 $1,000,716 8 15 - Bridget Jones's Baby UPI $729 - 3 - $243 $6,100,740 16 16 12 Doctor Strange Disney $232 +3,214.3% n/a - n/a $2,461,296 10

[Pypa94]

This weekend we should have close fight between Rouge One and Sing for 1st also Assasin's Creed and local potential hit Po prostu przyjaźń for 3rd

 

WOM

Sing 7,6/10

Assasin's Creed 6,4/10

Po prostu przyjaźń 6,2/10

Rouge One 7,7/10

 

In biggest chain Cinema City in capital (6 cinemas)

Sing 2D dub, 3D dub, 2D sub - 60 shows

Po prostu przyjaźń 2D - 46

Assasin's Creed 2D sub, 3D sub, 4DX sub, IMAX 3D sub - 55

Rouge One 2D sub, 2D dub, 3D sub, 3D dub, 4DX sub, 4DX dub, IMAX 3D sub - 70

 

2nd biggest Multikino in capital (4 cinemas)

Sing 2D dub, 3D dub, 2D sub - 48

Po prostu przyjaźń - 23

Assasin's Creed 2D sub, 3D sub - 25

Rouge One 2D sub, 2D dub, 3D dub - 28

 

[Pypa94]

2016 Box Office Summary

 

Another record movie season. Cinemas sold more than 50 mln tickiets!

 

In 2016 to Polish cinemas guests 51,583568 mln spectators. For the first in the industry histrory a magic barrier was crossed - 50 mln sold tickets. It was massive increase comparing 2015, also recordbreaking. Last year it was 44,695 mln people. Therefore cinemas sold 7 mln more tickets (increase 16 %).

Recordbreaking were incomings as well. Gross close to 960 mln PLN (about 232 mln $) vs 823 mln PLN (about 211 mln $) in 2015. Ticket prices rises a little bit from 18,4 PLN to 18,6 PLN (4,7$ and 4,5$ - decrease due to ER).

11 movies crossed 1 mln admissions (in 2015 – 7), 29 titles crossed 500k admissions (last year – 19). Local titles had great year. In Top 10 we have 5 local titles and in Top 50 - 10!

TOP 50 of 2016 (admissions)

1. "Pitbull. Niebezpieczne kobiety (local)" - 2,769 mln*
2. "Planeta Singli (local)" - 1,917 mln
3. "Ice Age: Collision Course" - 1,459 mln
4. "Wołyń (local)" - 1,434 mln
5. "Pitbull. Nowe porządki (local)" - 1,433 mln
6. "The Secret Life of Pets" - 1,418 mln
7. "Rouge One: A Star Wars Story" - 1,278 mln*
8. "Zootopia" - 1,264 mln
9. "Bridget Jones's Baby" - 1,173 mln
10. "7 rzeczy, których nie wiecie o facetach (local)" - 1,143 mln
11. "Angry Birds" - 1,068 mln
12. "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"  - 936k (premiere in 2015)
13. "Fantastic Beast and Where to Find Them" - 835k*
14. "Finding Dory" - 827k
15. "Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip" - 810k
16. "Suicide Squad" - 774k
17. "Trolls" - 767k*
18. "Deadpool" - 759k
19. "Moje córki krowy (local)" - 735k
20. "Now You See Me 2" - 689k
21. "The Revenant" - 636k
22. "Inferno" - 623k
23. "Moana" - 598k*
24. "Nine Lives" - 578k
25. "The Conjuring 2" - 571k
26. "Kung Fu Panda 3" - 543k
27. "The Jungle Book" - 525k
28. "The Girl on the Train" - 524k
29. "Ostatnia Rodzina (local)" - 504k
30. "Captain America: Civil War" 497k
31. "Storks" - 479k
32. "Norm of the North" - 471k
33. "Smoleńsk (local)" - 461k
34. "Warcraft" - 460k
35. "Doktor Strange" - 460k
36. "Alicja Through the Looking Glass" - 429k
37. "Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice" - 414k
38. "The Hateful Eight" - 388k
39. "The BFG" - 373k
40. "Jason Bourne" - 368k
41. "Me Before You" - 346k
42. "Słaba płeć? (local)" - 344k
43. "Hacksaw Ridge" - 329k*
44. "Historia Roja (local)" - 310k
45. "Florence Foster Jenkins" - 298k
46. "Sausage Party" - 285k
47. "Pete's Dragon" - 284k
48. "Independence Day: Resurgence" - 278k
49. "Miss Peregrine’s Home For Peculiar Children" - 266k
50. "The Peanuts Movie" - 231k

 

*still in theaters

 

If we don't count Star Wars VII, on 50 place we would have Passengers - 226k

 

 

[terrestrial]

You have 4 local films in the top 5, and 5 local films in the top 10 part of the chart.

 

Another example for my tries to point out at BOT... to raise the awareness about strong local competition for e.g. US films.

 

(twice Pitbull? I knew it a part... something of Pitbull, but I didn't realise there were 2 in the same year - or to what/which extent that went)

 

Happy for your cinema business and audience, great increases!