Fullbuster Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 So, if it will be relased in December 19th, Fullbuster is expecting OW record (or similar), and 12 days later, after big opening, people have holidays and box office is stronger than usually (we already know Russia has usually very poor legs), what multiplier could we see from a OW record? x2? x2.5? x3? With a 25 OW, that would give us a range 50-75 million. I have always thought about 60-65, and these factors make me confirm that range is absolutely reachable.$60m is very likely. I think it will pass Pirates of the Caribbean 4 ($64m)...With such a gross it would be the highest-grossing movie in Russia behind Avatar ($117m) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 $60m is very likely. I think it will pass Pirates of the Caribbean 4 ($64m)...With such a gross it would be the highest-grossing movie in Russia behind Avatar ($117m)Good signs for TH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juni78ukr Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 (edited) Probably the best case would be Tron: Legacy scenario - 166 mln RUB opening weekend and 650 mln RUB total with nearly 4 multiplyer.Not so sure about the opening weekend though. And those new year holidays usually is a huge battle between five, six or even more films. Some of them are local releases. Edited November 20, 2012 by juni78ukr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 So it went up signficantly? Fantastic....so it did hit 200 mill internationally OW! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Probably the best case would be Tron: Legacy scenario - 166 mln RUB opening weekend and 650 mln RUB total with nearly 4 multiplyer.Not so sure about the opening weekend though. And those new year holidays usually is a huge battle between five, six or even more films. Some of them are local releases.Local releases have shitty numbers, they won't be able to compete with The Hobbit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 So it went up signficantly? Fantastic....so it did hit 200 mill internationally OW!Now we have to see whether it has good legs or not..Because Twilight is frontloaded and Russia is frontloaded too, so the drop could be huge, or maybe not given the weak competition. With the numbers of this week we'll be able to forecast the final gross of BD2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juni78ukr Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The best opening weekends by admissions1. Breaking Dawn. Part 2 3,007,4782. Madagascar 2 2,984,5803. Ice Age 3 2,927,6444. Pirates of the Caribbean 4 2,925,721 5. Shrek Forever After 2,833,0786. The Very Best Film 2,691,6337. 2012 2,584,2338. Avatar 2,563,9639. Ice Age 4 2,411,27110. Pirates of the Caribbean 3 2,379,042 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Now we have to see whether it has good legs or not..Because Twilight is frontloaded and Russia is frontloaded too, so the drop could be huge, or maybe not given the weak competition. With the numbers of this week we'll be able to forecast the final gross of BD2.Well, we all know Twilight is one of the all time frontloaded franchises. But even if it just gets a 2 multiplier, it still does about 13 mill more than BD1. That's about 40%. if every market increased by about 40%, it would hit 600 internationally. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rudolf Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 So what will be the big Russian movie this year?Gentlemenui?3 Knights? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 The best opening weekends by admissions1. Breaking Dawn. Part 2 3,007,4782. Madagascar 2 2,984,5803. Ice Age 3 2,927,6444. Pirates of the Caribbean 4 2,925,7215. Shrek Forever After 2,833,0786. The Very Best Film 2,691,6337. 2012 2,584,2338. Avatar 2,563,9639. Ice Age 4 2,411,27110. Pirates of the Caribbean 3 2,379,042It's really impressive to see BD2 ahead of animated movies because Russians love them, it's really beyond the expectations. I said it to you : Russia can surprise us BIG 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rudolf Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 For me Madagascar3 was the big favourite this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Well, we all know Twilight is one of the all time frontloaded franchises. But even if it just gets a 2 multiplier, it still does about 13 mill more than BD1. That's about 40%. if every market increased by about 40%, it would hit 600 internationally.You're right By the way it will be ahead BD1 ($31m), I would be satisfied.$40m is probably locked, I expected $35m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 So what will be the big Russian movie this year?Gentlemenui?3 Knights?The highest-grossing local movie this year is Dukhless : $13.3m, and it's just the twentieth rank 2012, it's very bad. So I really don't expect something from Russian movies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juni78ukr Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 (edited) Local adventure comedy Jungle is expected to be strong (November 29, 1500+ screens). Also new film from the most popular animated franchise will be released on December, 27. Should gross 20m+. Edited November 20, 2012 by juni78ukr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 For me Madagascar3 was the big favourite this year.We can say the biggest surprises of the year are The Avengers and Twilight BD2, they really beat the expectations, particularly The Avengers given superheroes movies aren't so fashionable in Russia (but apparently it's changing) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Local adventure comedy Jungle is expected to be strong (November 29, 1500+ screens). Also new film from the most popular animated franchise will be released on December, 27. Should gross 20m+.That could be interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Total admissions :Twilight BD2 : 3,007,000 (1 week)Skyfall : 3,080,000 (4 weeks)Ralph : 2,048,000 (3 weeks)Cloud Atlas : 1,712,000 (2 weeks)Skyfall caught up in 4 days by Twilight, really impressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Twilight BD1 and Eclipsed had 5 million admissions, maybe Twilight BD2 could reach 6m? Probably I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 So, tomorrow is the release date of Rise of the Guardians, I'm not sure about its potential there, but it's Dreamworks so it should be appealing to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Текущее представление: US $ TITLE ФИЛЬМ DISTRIBUTOR ДИСТРИБЬЮТОР WEEKEND GROSS ЗА УИК-ЭНД CHANGE К ПРЕД. НЕДЕЛЕ, % PER SCREEN В СРЕДНЕМ НА ЭКРАН SCREENS КОЛ-ВО ЭКРАНОВ TOTAL GROSS ОБЩИЕ СБОРЫ DAYS ДНЕЙ ADMISSIONS КОЛ-ВО ЗРИТЕЛЕЙ 1 Сумерки. Сага: Рассвет. Часть 2 (The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2) Вест 21 972 764 - 16 085 1 366 21 972 764 4 3 007 478 2 Облачный атлас (Cloud Atlas) Двадцатый Век Фокс СНГ 2 534 334 -49 1 968 1 288 12 884 570 14 1 712 228 3 Ральф (Wreck-it Ralph) WDSSPR 1 330 751 -65 2 157 617 14 149 117 18 2 048 024 4 007 Координаты Скайфолл (Skyfall) WDSSPR 1 137 696 -59 2 768 411 24 069 587 24 3 079 600 5 Экипаж (Flight) Централ Партнершип 853 450 - 2 134 400 853 450 4 108 733 6 Операция 'Арго' (Argo) Каро Премьер 414 938 -49 838 495 1 464 666 11 192 692 7 Рассказы (Rasskazy) WDSSPR 313 568 - 1 723 182 313 568 4 41 099 8 Монстры на каникулах (Hotel Transylvania) WDSSPR 233 409 -75 1 588 147 15 899 938 32 2 165 693 9 Покорители волн (Chasing Mavericks) UPI 228 415 -59 855 267 970 025 11 141 802 10 Сайлент Хилл-2 в 3D (Silent Hill: Revelation 3D) Вест 105 307 -91 1 672 63 13 006 692 25 1 564 665 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
