BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[zackzack]

On 18/02/2017 at 0:20 PM, zackzack said:

Can JW2 hit more than $5M?

 

On 18/02/2017 at 2:55 PM, IndustriousAngel said:

without 3D? would be very hard

 

So, would yo like to revise your prediction re: JW2?

It's already doing 4.7M euro = $5M @ ER

 

[IndustriousAngel]

I thought you were asking about OW, 5mil total are safe of course!

[zackzack]

19 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

I thought you were asking about OW, 5mil total are safe of course!

 

Where do you think JW2 end up with? It's a significant increase from the original

[el sid]

No Thursday estimates available today :(.

I would guess (and it's nothing more) that Logan is in line with expectations. But 400k will be tough. In the theaters I look at it had only pretty modest reservations till yesterday but over night it increased. WOM is very good so far.
La La Land should have a big increase, Silence is sadly not doing very well and the (other) holdovers seem to have nice holds.

 

[IndustriousAngel]

Friday estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: Logan - 325k (about 300k Thu-Sun)

#2: B&T4 - 300k (-15%, wow)

#3: 50SoG2 - 200k (-35%)

#4: JW2 - 100k (-35%)

#5: LEGOBatman - 90k (-10%, now that would be nice but was overestimated every weekend)

[el sid]

And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:

Logan: 50k (starts in 598 theaters, very good reviews)
Der junge Karl Marx: 10.6k (280, mediocre to very good reviews) → 65k OW predicted in the first trend
Silence: 2.1k (184, very good reviews) → 15k OW predicted

Holdovers:

Bibi & Tina - Tohuwabohu total!: 40k (38k)
Fifty Shades Darker: 35k (41k)
John Wick 2:15k (21k)
La La Land: 15k (9k) → 90k OW predicted, last weekend it had 73k admissions

[Hatebox]

Just got out. Yup, really good. In fact it's fucking surreal to see a SH movie that plays out the way it does. Jackman probably gives the best superhero  performance yet. Comparing it with TDK feels futile though, like comparing No Country For Old Men with Heat. 

[el sid]

A nice 2. trend:

Logan - The Wolverine: 340k
Bibi & Tina - Tohuwabohu total!: 325k
FSD: 220k
John Wick 2: 100k 
La La Land: 95k ,+30%
The LEGO Batman Movie: 90k, -10%
Lion: 70k - so it stays practically flat
Recep Ivedik 5: 70k
A Cure for Wellness: 60k - that's also an impressive hold, had 77k admissions last weekend, so -22%
Der junge Karl Marx: 55k
Split: 50k, -10%
Mein Blind Date mit dem Leben: 45k - stays flat
Hidden Figures: 35k
Moana: 30k
Bailey/A Dog's Purpose: 27,5k

...Silence: 15k

Edited March 4, 2017 by el sid

[Aristis]

Less than 10% down for B&T! A great drop.

Less than 30% drop for FSOG2 - this has great legs in Germany...

Hidden Figures again with a great 15% drop.

Moana stays flat - what a run!

 

I hope those drops will hold. Today weather seems to be quite well all over Germany, but tomorow is predicted to be worse.

[IndustriousAngel]

Sunday estimates and we're back to the numbers  from Friday estimates

[IndustriousAngel]

Final numbers are in and it's looking much better again - actuals tomorrow but B&T3 fell only 6%, fantastic! Good opening for Logan, and good drops everywhere else (LaLaLand increased 40%!)

 

In Austria, Logan was #1 (much stronger than the last Wolverine or X-Men films); Wilde Maus still #2 - it's already very close to 200k total, 300k look hard (this week it dropped 30%) but still possible.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Bibi & Tina 4	333.835	759	440	933.698	6.061.956	-5	2
2	Logan	311.652	598	521	344.327	3.238.372	-	1
3	Fifty Shades of Grey 2	220.970	648	341	2.990.645	26.796.411	-27	4
4	La La Land	104.083	785	133	1.420.171	12.175.518	+42	8
5	John Wick 2	100.929	525	192	646.423	5.666.302	-34	3
6	The LEGO Batman Movie	92.066	550	167	742.103	5.797.751	-9	4
7	Lion	72.882	183	398	192.551	1.613.286	+1	2
8	Recep Ivedik 5	68.344	112	610	480.833	4.254.150	-49	3
9	A Cure for Wellness	54.895	397	138	163.660	1.516.321	-29	2
10	Der junge Karl Marx	50.234	267	188	53.375	411.290	-	1
11	Split	46.637	353	132	1.141.288	9.744.124	-24	6
12	Mein Blind Date mit dem Leben	42.212	409	103	664.811	5.357.014	-4	6
13	Hidden Figures	38.527	311	124	356.761	2.926.666	-6	5
14	Moana	30.981	451	69	2.061.770	15.730.788	+4	11
15	A Dog's Purpose	29.719	221	13	90.571	671.486	-21	2
16	Sing	18.276	247	74	2.422.069	19.024.901	+23	13
17	Wendy	18.054	517	35	589.667	3.792.547	-8	6
18	Elle	16.597	100	166	106.581	862.079	-33	3
19	Trainspotting 2	16.413	280	59	129.517	1.085.668	-37	3
20	Manchester by the Sea	16.262	188	87	229.841	1.929.065	+38	7

 

A very fine weekend, with a good opener and overall excellent drops or even increases! Family stuff and awards material were especially strong - La La Land now with 1,4mil total on a market that is not friendly to musicals at all. Bibi & Tina 4 are very strong, the 2mil total of part 3 seem possible again. Even Moana and Sing had little comebacks.

 

Next weekend: Logan had a good opening but with Kong: Skull Island there's direct competition for it coming up; Kong should open in the same range as Logan did this weekend and become #1. Sleepless and Moonlight are smaller releases, as Austrian crime comedy Wilde Maus which is a big hit in Austria, but tastes differ. With no new family releases, holdovers in that demo should see nice drops again.

[IndustriousAngel]

btw, Austria's February numbers are in; it's been a very strong one but mostly thanks to holiday/weekend alignments, we had an accordingly weak January - taken Jan+Feb, we're still more than 10% behind 2015 and 2016 (though ahead of 2014 ...)

[IndustriousAngel]

going by my theater on OD, Kong will not beat Logan's OW ... but then maybe it's less frontloaded and can catch up.

[el sid]

Nowhere school holidays this week(end).

The Thursday estimates (insidekino.de/forum):

New Releases:

 

Kong: Skull Island: 26k (starts in 545 theaters, some mixed, some good and also some very good reviews) – not bad but it has to improve a lot to reach Logan's numbers. Logan had 50k last Thursday but was probably more frontloaded and some states had school holidays so it's not really comparable.
Sleepless: 4.5k (222, bad and mixed reviews)
Moonlight: 8.5k (94, good and very good reviews) – looks good
Wilde Maus: 3.5k (91, good and very good reviews) - also not bad

Holdovers:

Logan: 29.5k (50k)
Fifty Shades Darker: 14.5k (35k)
John Wick 2: 8k (15k)
Lion: 6k
Recep Ivedik 5: 1k
A Cure for Wellness: 2.5k
Der junge Karl Marx: 3.5k (10.6k)
Split: 3.5k
Mein Blind Date mit dem Leben: 2k

 

The same applies for the holdovers: No holiday boost and that's why some drops look a bit harsh.
Logan is doing pretty fine.

Edited March 9, 2017 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend trends from insidekino.de:

 

#1: Kong - 325k (incl. previews)

#2: Logan - 250k (-20%, how nice!)

#3: B&T4 - 190k (-45%)

#4: 50SoG2 - 120k (-45%)

#5: Moonlight - 85k - excellent PTA here, real surprise if true

[el sid]

Wow, that's much better for Kong than I feared the whole week with the wimpy reservation numbers :). And that with a still strong Logan. Moonlight also nice but not surprising.

Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

Kong: 36k - so 10k stronger than estimated! I didn't dare  to write yesterday that I hope it will have strong walk-ups, but obviously it had.
Logan: 28k
FSD: 17k
Bibi & Tina 4: 11k
Moonlight: 10k
Sleepless: 6k
Wilde Maus: 5k

Edited March 10, 2017 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

As mentioned, if I look at my theater, Kong doesn't look nearly as strong ... that Logan drop is the real surprise this weekend (if true); I had thought it would crumble against Kong but both movies seem to co-exist rather well.

[IndustriousAngel]

as during last weekend, estimates are going down ... now, Kong: 300k, Logan: 225k, B&T4: 175k ... only 50SoG2 up a bit

Edited March 11, 2017 by IndustriousAngel

[miketheavenger]

3rd trend is even worse due to beautiful weather :

 

Kong: 275k

Logan: 190k (-40%)

B&T4: 160k (-52%)

FSD: 130k (-41%)