BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[IndustriousAngel]

It seems "Willkommen bei den Hartmanns" is having a strong Wednesday in Germany ... still not possible to say anything about the weekend though since Wed doesn't count. In Austria, it's probably a lot weaker - in my theater, there's 6 (six) seats booked for tomorrow (no Wed start so tomorrow is opening day) - as a comparison, there are about 80 seats sold for tomorrow's Doctor Strange shows.

[el sid]

These are the Thursday estimates (via insidekino.de/forum).

New releases:

Willkommen bei den Hartmanns: 52k (starts in 585 theaters, quite good reviews)
Petterson und Findus 2: Das schönste Weihnachten überhaupt: sadly no report (409, pretty good reviews)
Tini: Violettas Zukunft: sadly no report (ca. 300, mixed reviews)

Holdovers:

Doctor Strange: 30.5k (last Thursday 55k)
Bridget Jones's Baby: 34k (35k)
Inferno: 17k (25k)
Dory: 5.5k evening only! (20k whole day)

So „Willkommen bei den Hartmanns“ could easily be the new #1 this weekend.
The holds look good but in many states we have autumn holiday which of course helps.

Edited November 3, 2016 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Friday trend for Germany from insidekino.de:

#1/2:  Willkommen bei den Hartmanns / Doctor Strange with 350k each (super numbers for both; that would be a 5% drop for Strange )

#3: Bridget - 150k (-25%, great hold once more)

[moviesRus]

Is it still holiday?

[el sid]

39 minutes ago, moviesRus said:

Is it still holiday?

Only in the South, Bayern and Baden-Württemberg (big states).

Some of the Thursday actuals:
Willkommen bei den Hartmanns: 55k
Doctor Strange: 45k - that 30k number was indeed suspicious
Inferno: 15k
Tini: 21k
Petterson und Findus 2: 7k
 

[Aristis]

That would be at last a good hold for Dory 135k (-17%) With this hold Dory will cross 3,5M admissions

Inferno 125k (-35%)

Trolls 125k (-12%)

 

[terrestrial]

5 hours ago, moviesRus said:

Is it still holiday?

As el Sid already stated, in 2 (mostly Catholic) states. They have over 25% of the complete population (on place 2 and 3 out of 16 states - population numbers wise)

Not sure how that plays into the weekend numbers, should have be good for the weekdays numbers (I didn't check yet).

[efialtes76]

On 4/11/2016 at 7:35 AM, IndustriousAngel said:

Friday trend for Germany from insidekino.de:

#1/2:  Willkommen bei den Hartmanns / Doctor Strange with 350k each (super numbers for both; that would be a 5% drop for Strange )

#3: Bridget - 150k (-25%, great hold once more)

Saturday Trend:

 

#1-Willkommen bei de Hartmanns-450K

#2-Doctor Strange-325K

#3-Bridget Jones-150K

#4/5/6/7-Dory,Tini&Violeta,Inferno and Trolls-125K

#8-Girl on the Train-100K

 

#The Accountant-40K

[IndustriousAngel]

very good numbers! (WbdH number includes 50k from Wed)

[Aristis]

Hartmann's seems to have great WOM!

450k is great! 2M we're coming

 

Strange (-11%)

Dory (-23%) still good and probably still enough to hit 3,5M

[IndustriousAngel]

 

11 hours ago, Aristis said:

Hartmann's seems to have great WOM!

450k is great! 2M we're coming

 

Strange (-11%)

Dory (-23%) still good and probably still enough to hit 3,5M

The fact that WbdH is picking up speed as it rolls along is a very good sign, 2mil are really the lower end of expectations now. Will be Verhoefen's greatest success so far and even 3mil - his first blockbuster - seem possible with such favourable WOM.

Dory is already a success but the fact that, week after week, it's always dropping a bit harder than other stuff (even family) seems to indicate that WOM is not as good as it should be.

[terrestrial]

 

3. Trend:
Willkommen bei den Hartmanns (485T), Doctor Strange (290T), Trolls (150T), Bridget Jones's Baby (140T), Findet Dorie (135T), Inferno (125T), Tini - Violettas Zukunft (110T), Girl on the Train (100T), Pettersson & Findus - Das schönste Weihnachten überhaupt (75T), Burg Schreckenstein (45T), Störche - Abenteuer im Anflug (45T), The Accountant (40T), Die Insel der besonderen Kinder (35T), Bad Moms (35T), Ouija - Ursprung des Bösen (30T),

 

Last trend had it at 325.....

[IndustriousAngel]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

 

3. Trend:
Willkommen bei den Hartmanns (485T), Doctor Strange (290T), Trolls (150T), Bridget Jones's Baby (140T), Findet Dorie (135T), Inferno (125T), Tini - Violettas Zukunft (110T), Girl on the Train (100T), Pettersson & Findus - Das schönste Weihnachten überhaupt (75T), Burg Schreckenstein (45T), Störche - Abenteuer im Anflug (45T), The Accountant (40T), Die Insel der besonderen Kinder (35T), Bad Moms (35T), Ouija - Ursprung des Bösen (30T),

 

Last trend had it at 325.....

That's still very good for Strange, about a 20% drop against a good opener - not bad!

Trolls is actually increasing if those numbers hold!

Dory - a 15% drop, very nice but when Trolls even increases - not optimal.

Bridget drops 30%, it got hit hardest by the Hartmanns.

[terrestrial]

9 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

That's still very good for Strange, about a 20% drop against a good opener - not bad!

Trolls is actually increasing if those numbers hold!

Dory - a 15% drop, very nice but when Trolls even increases - not optimal.

Bridget drops 30%, it got hit hardest by the Hartmanns.

 

Agree, only pointed it out,as it seems to be a hot theme. Someone at the weekend thread (I thonk) wrote e.g. that DS fell in Spain to #4... but gave no explanation like e.g. local movies. Like here in Germany a local movie gained #1. Latest since GotG run in SK against one of the (or THE) biggest lokal Korean movie I am looking strongly on that.

 

A minus 20% is even greater IMHO based on it's running against a 485T local movie

[efialtes76]

Wilkommen bei den Hartmans-467,5K/505K

Doctor Strange-290K/870K

Trolls-150K/645K

Bridget Jones-135K/905K

Dory-132,5K/3550K

Inferno-120K/1315K

Tini&Violeta-112,5K

Girl on the Train-95K/300K

 

The Accountant-40K/255K

Edited November 7, 2016 by efialtes76

[miketheavenger]

5 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

Wilkommen bei den Hartmans-467,5K/505K

Doctor Strange-290K/870K

Trolls-150K/645K

Bridget Jones-135K/905K

Dory-132,5K/3250K

Inferno-120K/1315K

Tini&Violeta-112,5K

Girl on the Train-95K/300K

 

The Accountant-40K/255K

Shouldn't Dory's total be higher? It was already over 3,3m last week.

[efialtes76]

31 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

Shouldn't Dory's total be higher? It was already over 3,3m last week.

You're right.3550K

Edited November 7, 2016 by efialtes76

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Willkommen bei den Hartmanns	468.940	586	800	506.431	4.270.985	-	1
2	Doctor Strange	289.154	574	504	867.107	9.652.701	-21	2
3	Trolls	149.252	668	223	645.698	4.794.493	+5	3
4	Bridget Jones's Baby	135.816	670	203	910.486	7.822.893	-32	3
5	Finding Dory	133.569	694	192	3.549.916	29.860.692	-17	6
6	Inferno	118.394	642	184	1.313.325	11.539.208	-38	4
7	Tini - Violettas Zukunft	113.218	361	314	113.218	782.667	-	1
8	The Girl on the Train	95.717	438	219	297.566	2.578.621	-21	2
9	Pettersson & Findus - Das schönste Weihnachten überhaupt	72.514	410	177	79.912	514.629	-	1
10	Burg Schreckenstein	47.839	521	92	237.013	1.498.700	+7	3
11	Storks	43.713	435	100	134.750	976.843	-20	2
12	The Accountant	38.339	345	111	254.504	2.229.430	-32	3
13	Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children	36.058	313	115	795.030	7.860.178	-38	5
14	Bad Moms	31.336	288	109	1.243.071	10.175.513	-31	7
15	Ouija: Origin of Evil	30.860	277	111	181.242	1.570.675	-29	3
16	Sausage Party	15.225	238	64	414.724	3.358.404	-36	5
17	The Secret Life of Pets	13.088	203	64	3.787.458	30.966.090	+7	15
18	Tschick	12.743	160	80	618.305	4.467.802	-39	8
19	La Danseuse	9.819	70	140	12.066	93.697	-	1
20	Snowden	9.230	149	62	393.366	3.465.961	-25	7

 

Surprisingly good opening for Willkommen bei den Hartmanns; with excellent WOM as witnessed by the increasing estimates the comedy might be able to make it to the 3mil total mark! Doctor Strange had an ok hold, a success on the German market (difficult for superheroes). Finding Dory crossed 3,5mil total this weekend - a success, sure, but once more, it dropped 17% when three other family releases had an increase. WOM is definitely not what it ought to be.

 

Next weekend: Jack Reacher 2 and Café Society and a lot of domestic stuff - 200k opening weekend for Cruise seem like a good estimate but hopefully it can get a little higher; Woody's latest releases were tough sells, I'd consider everything north of a 50k weekend a success.

 

As an aside: October numbers for Austria are in, and after a disastrous 3rd quarter, the 4th one starts with a bang, Dory and Bad Moms lead a strong roster to one of the best Octobers of the last 30 years.

[el sid]

These are the Thursday estimates (via insidekino.de/forum):

New releases:

Jack Reacher 2: 17.5k (starts in 507 theaters, mixed reviews)
Before I Wake: 1.5k (191, mixed reviews)
Cafe Society: 3k (135, good reviews)

Holdovers:

Willkommen bei den Hartmanns: 39.5k (55k) - as projected it will have a very good hold
Doctor Strange: 19k (45k) – maybe again underestimated
Bridget Jones's Baby: 18.5k (30.5k)
Girl on the Train: 7.5
Inferno: 8k (15k)
Dory: 1k (5.5k evening only) - no holiday, so not surprising

So we have mostly good holds given the fact that last week two big states still had autumn holiday.
Jack Reacher 2 could reach 200k or maybe come in a bit lower if the number is correct.

Friday edit: I have to admit that the Thursday estimates are not the most accurate ones in the last weeks. Maybe they are taken too early and that's the reason why the films that find their audience also or more in the evening are chronically underestimated:
Doctor Strange: 25k instead of 19k
Jack Reacher 2: also 25k instead of 17.5k

Edited November 11, 2016 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend trends from insidekino.de:

#1: WbdH - 425k (-10%, 3mil here we come!)

#2: Strange - 225k (-20%)

#3: JackReacher - 190k (that's very close to what I said was a success so let's say it is )