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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

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On 5/22/2022 at 12:15 AM, Taruseth said:

DS2 might actually struggle to reach 2M.

Might be at 1470k after the weekend. Would need to add 3.2x that weekend

3rd weekend of FB3 was worth 320k (for a 2061k total up to that point).

FB3 also not looking good. 2640k or so... will probably end around 2775k or so.

 

TG2 is for Wednesday previews at for T-4

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   2 107 575 18,61%

 

 

Bigger comp Cinestar Bremen, Cinemax Bremen and Cinestar Frankfurt

 

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   9 519 4158 12,48%

 

This movie completely confuses me, its Previews are over indexing at the Cinestar Bremen.

Cinemax Bremen: 91 

Cinestar Bremen: 205

Cinestar Frankfurt: 223

(TROS sold 3 times as much at CS F than CS B. And about a third more at CX B rather than less than half as much).

I don't have my not posted comps right now.

 

TFSS:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   43 394 21202 1,86%
  Hide contents

CS Bremen:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   11 176 5731 3,07%

 

CX Bremen:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   12 66 3664 1,80%

 

CS Frankfurt (Metropolis):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   20 152 11807 1,29%

The following comps are T-0

Aladdin: 493 => 230k

John Wick 3: 967 => 116k

Godzilla: 328 => 168k

Rocketman: 175 => 267k

Dark Phoenix: 333 => 146k

MIBI: 221 => 201k

Five Feet Apart: 85 => 491k

Spider-Man FFH: 2058 => 83

TLK: 2755 => 132k

H&S: 1058 => 183k

Hollywood: 1774 => 98k 

TS 4: 388 => 242k

 

I know the comps don't fit, but I would't expect it to blow up to much and if I'd had to assume I would assume an OWend (TFSS) of around 400k.

I am thinking that the comps will increase quite nicely over the following days.

 

 

 

I am no @Porthos or anyone from the main tracking thread, so you only get this with ill fitting comps.

 

TG2 is for Wednesday previews at for T-3

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   2 124 575

18,61

Heading towards 65-80k.

Though I'd assume that it will end up somewhat closer to the lower end of that range.

 

 

and at the old ones:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   9 586 4158 14,09

 

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   43 541 21202 1,86

increased 37 % - so assuming it will increase around that again (and a bigger increase on the last day) to T-2: 740; T-1:1020; T-0:1500

 

The following comps are T-0 for TFSS

Aladdin (289k): 493 => 317k

John Wick 3 (285k): 967 => 159k

Godzilla (140k): 328 => 230k

Rocketman (119k): 175 => 367k

Dark Phoenix (124k): 333 => 201k

MIBI (113k): 221 => 277k

Five Feet Apart (106k): 85 => 675k

Spider-Man FFH (434k): 2058 => 114k

TLK (922k): 2755 => 181k

H&S (491k): 1058 => 251k

Hollywood (439k): 1774 => 134k

TS 4 (238k): 388 => 332k

Spoiler

If T-0 = 1500:

Aladdin (289k): 493 => 879k

John Wick 3 (285k): 967 => 442k

Godzilla (140k): 328 => 640k

Rocketman (119k): 175 => 1020k

Dark Phoenix (124k): 333 => 559k

MIBI (113k): 221 => 767k

Five Feet Apart (106k): 85 => 1871k

Spider-Man FFH (434k): 2058 => 316k

TLK (922k): 2755 => 501k

H&S (491k): 1058 => 696k

Hollywood (439k): 1774 => 371k

TS 4 (238k): 388 => 920k

 

 

 

Doesn't look too bad.

Assuming it will be more presale heavy than most other movies aided by the general situation I'd assume it will go more along the lines of Superhero movies and the likes.

So I'd stay with around 400k

 

 

Oh, but cinemas ain't having much trust into this movie: The CS Frankfurt on Saturday only has showing at 8 and 11 pm, no afternoon shows. 
And in all others it's getting the bare minimum, every movie gets, meaning one afternoon, one evening and one night showing (on Friday and Saturday at least).

 

Anything above 500k would surprise me.

 

Edited by Taruseth
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The Monday update from insidekino.de - again a bit better:
 

#1 Doctor Strange 2 202.5k/1.55 M total admissions
#2 FB 3 57.5k/2.667,5M
#3 Dog 60k
#4 The Lost City 32.5k/495k

#5 Die Biene Maja 22.5k/110k

...

Stasikomödie 20k

X 14k

 

Edited by el sid
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On 5/23/2022 at 12:03 AM, Taruseth said:

I am no @Porthos or anyone from the main tracking thread, so you only get this with ill fitting comps.

 

TG2 is for Wednesday previews at for T-3

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   2 124 575

18,61

Heading towards 65-80k.

Though I'd assume that it will end up somewhat closer to the lower end of that range.

 

 

and at the old ones:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   9 586 4158 14,09

 

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   43 541 21202 1,86

increased 37 % - so assuming it will increase around that again (and a bigger increase on the last day) to T-2: 740; T-1:1020; T-0:1500

 

 

The following comps are T-0 for TFSS

Aladdin (289k): 493 => 317k

John Wick 3 (285k): 967 => 159k

Godzilla (140k): 328 => 230k

Rocketman (119k): 175 => 367k

Dark Phoenix (124k): 333 => 201k

MIBI (113k): 221 => 277k

Five Feet Apart (106k): 85 => 675k

Spider-Man FFH (434k): 2058 => 114k

TLK (922k): 2755 => 181k

H&S (491k): 1058 => 251k

Hollywood (439k): 1774 => 134k

TS 4 (238k): 388 => 332k

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Doesn't look too bad.

Assuming it will be more presale heavy than most other movies aided by the general situation I'd assume it will go more along the lines of Superhero movies and the likes.

So I'd stay with around 400k

 

 

Oh, but cinemas ain't having much trust into this movie: The CS Frankfurt on Saturday only has showing at 8 and 11 pm, no afternoon shows. 
And in all others it's getting the bare minimum, every movie gets, meaning one afternoon, one evening and one night showing (on Friday and Saturday at least).

 

Anything above 500k would surprise me.

 

T-2 (meaning Previews are T-1)

Previews:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   2 136 575

23,65

 

 

and at the old ones:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   9 661 4158 14,63

+12.80%.

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   97 707 38046 1,86

+30.68% (pacing slightly behind my guess for the weekend).

A lot of shows got added. And that should help from now on out.

(The Rise of Skywalker had 66k seats available).

 

 

Aladdin (289k): 493 => 414k

John Wick 3 (285k): 967 => 208k

Godzilla (140k): 328 => 301k

Rocketman (119k): 175 => 480k

Dark Phoenix (124k): 333 => 263k

MIBI (113k): 221 => 361k

Five Feet Apart (106k): 85 => 881k

Spider-Man FFH (434k): 2058 => 149k

TLK (922k): 2755 => 236k

H&S (491k): 1058 => 328k

Hollywood (439k): 1774 => 174k

TS 4 (238k): 388 => 433k

TROS (1388k): 11206 => 88k

 

Don't really know what a proper comp for this is. I'd say the bold ones are good comps (those are obviously t-0) so probably have to double those for an actual TFSS estimate.

So right now I'd assume something around 400k.

 

Also (@ all non Germans (Austrains etc.): Thursday is a national holiday)

Don't be surprised with a bad internal multiplier due to Thursday being inflated (it has the most available seats currently) - an internal multi below 4x is likely.

Presales for TROS etc. were more evenly spread out through the weekend for TG2 there is a lot on Thursday, the other days are weaker and the Sunday right now is barely there (but that will obviously get better).

 

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Top Gun Maverick Preview (May 25th)  Ba-Wü Seat Report T-1

 

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total 0 105 4925 23828 20,67%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Four Days: 1840

 

Comp

1.346x of The Batman T-1 (0.68M€/66.000 Adm. OD)

0.449x of DS2 T-1 (0.77M€/72.500 Adm. OD)

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Germany's Top11 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Doctor Strange 2

202.834

670

303

1.552.838

16.807.971

-38

3

2

Fantastic Beasts 3

57.143

606

94

2.672.127

26.985.540

-22

7

3

Dog

46.831

404

116

59.911

515.416

-

1

4

The Lost City

32.486

480

68

494.164

4.439.894

-18

5

5

Die Biene Maja 2

23.893

658

36

110.136

781.526

+2

3

6

Downton Abbey 2

22.837

546

42

236.599

2.308.835

-26

4

7

Sonic the Hedgehog 2

22.027

512

43

916.648

7.404.147

-3

8

8

The Bad Boys

19.774

470

42

722.136

5.346.660

+11

10

9

Stasikomödie

18.553

379

49

19.593

181.905

-

1

10

Everything Everywhere All at Once

11.782

156

76

70.245

634.113

+6

4

11

The Northman

10.159

297

34

213.828

2.038.293

-34

5

Horrible weekend once more but at least some small increases thanks to bad weather …Doctor Strange 2 crossed 1,5mil total but at the rate it's dropping it might miss 2mil. Among openers, Dog stood its ground but the PTA is pretty bad.

Next weekend: Top Gun 2 is a sequel nobody's been asking for but Cruise is still a selling point, #1 is safe but it's questionable if it can get a 500k OW. Also opening: Immenhof, another domestic girl-horse-bestseller-adaption; those tend to do very well and since the last release in this sub-genre is pretty long past by now (and nothing else for teenage girls in theaters atm anyway), there's bound to be a lot of interest  - might get near 100k. Weather looks pretty good for the movies too atm so we should see a big overall uptick in business - maybe doubling this weekend's admissions?!

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23 hours ago, Taruseth said:

T-2 (meaning Previews are T-1)

Previews:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   2 136 575

23,65

 

 

and at the old ones:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   9 661 4158 14,63

+12.80%.

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   97 707 38046 1,86

+30.68% (pacing slightly behind my guess for the weekend).

A lot of shows got added. And that should help from now on out.

(The Rise of Skywalker had 66k seats available).

 

 

Aladdin (289k): 493 => 414k

John Wick 3 (285k): 967 => 208k

Godzilla (140k): 328 => 301k

Rocketman (119k): 175 => 480k

Dark Phoenix (124k): 333 => 263k

MIBI (113k): 221 => 361k

Five Feet Apart (106k): 85 => 881k

Spider-Man FFH (434k): 2058 => 149k

TLK (922k): 2755 => 236k

H&S (491k): 1058 => 328k

Hollywood (439k): 1774 => 174k

TS 4 (238k): 388 => 433k

TROS (1388k): 11206 => 88k

 

Don't really know what a proper comp for this is. I'd say the bold ones are good comps (those are obviously t-0) so probably have to double those for an actual TFSS estimate.

So right now I'd assume something around 400k.

 

Also (@ all non Germans (Austrains etc.): Thursday is a national holiday)

Don't be surprised with a bad internal multiplier due to Thursday being inflated (it has the most available seats currently) - an internal multi below 4x is likely.

Presales for TROS etc. were more evenly spread out through the weekend for TG2 there is a lot on Thursday, the other days are weaker and the Sunday right now is barely there (but that will obviously get better).

 

T-1 (previews in less than 24 hours, the rest still more than 24 hours away)

Previews:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   2 162 575

28,17

 

 

and at the old ones:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   9 746 4158 17,94

+12.80%.

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   97 974 38046 2,56

+37.76% (%-increase from yesterday directly on target, so overall still slightly lagging behind).

 

Aladdin (289k): 493 => 570k

John Wick 3 (285k): 967 => 287k

Godzilla (140k): 328 => 416k

Rocketman (119k): 175 => 662k

Dark Phoenix (124k): 333 => 362k

MIBI (113k): 221 => 498k

Five Feet Apart (106k): 85 => 1215k

Spider-Man FFH (434k): 2058 => 205k

TLK (922k): 2755 => 325k

H&S (491k): 1058 => 452k

Hollywood (439k): 1774 => 241k

TS 4 (238k): 388 => 597k

TROS (1388k): 11206 => 120k

 

Yeah, still looks okay - Cinemas Bremen is doing rather awfully though, for pretty much all other movies resales were better than at the CineStar, this time it's the opposite way around.

Thinking John Wick could be a fitting comp as both are driven by one actor - that would suggest an opening around 400k + previews.

It shouldn't be as presale heavy as TROS or FFH, but I doubt it will be less presale heavy than TLK.
So I'd but the lower border at Hollywood, the upper at TLK and guess it will do around JW3.

 

Let's hope I am right, cinemas still need well performing movies.

Don't think I'll be able to do the same for JWD, but I'll try. Other movies were I'll try will be Thor and Avatar.

Can't say anything about any other movie and probably only will do last 7 days.
Live is quite busy.

 

Hoping for most movies staying almost flat.

But I doubt DS2 will be able to do that.

 

Edited by Taruseth
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21 hours ago, altglascontainer said:

Top Gun Maverick Preview (May 25th)  Ba-Wü Seat Report T-1

 

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total 0 105 4925 23828 20,67%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Four Days: 1840

 

Comp

1.346x of The Batman T-1 (0.68M€/66.000 Adm. OD)

0.449x of DS2 T-1 (0.77M€/72.500 Adm. OD)

 

Top Gun Maverick Preview (May 25th)  Ba-Wü Seat Report T-0

 

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total 0 106 5775 23894 24,17%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 850

 

Comp

1.280x of The Batman T-0 (0.65M€/63.000 Adm. OD)

0.444x of DS2 T-1 (0.76M€/71.500 Adm. OD)

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23 hours ago, Taruseth said:

T-1 (previews in less than 24 hours, the rest still more than 24 hours away)

Previews:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   2 162 575

28,17

 

 

and at the old ones:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   9 746 4158 17,94

+12.80%.

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   97 974 38046 2,56

+37.76% (%-increase from yesterday directly on target, so overall still slightly lagging behind).

 

Aladdin (289k): 493 => 570k

John Wick 3 (285k): 967 => 287k

Godzilla (140k): 328 => 416k

Rocketman (119k): 175 => 662k

Dark Phoenix (124k): 333 => 362k

MIBI (113k): 221 => 498k

Five Feet Apart (106k): 85 => 1215k

Spider-Man FFH (434k): 2058 => 205k

TLK (922k): 2755 => 325k

H&S (491k): 1058 => 452k

Hollywood (439k): 1774 => 241k

TS 4 (238k): 388 => 597k

TROS (1388k): 11206 => 120k

 

Yeah, still looks okay - Cinemas Bremen is doing rather awfully though, for pretty much all other movies resales were better than at the CineStar, this time it's the opposite way around.

Thinking John Wick could be a fitting comp as both are driven by one actor - that would suggest an opening around 400k + previews.

It shouldn't be as presale heavy as TROS or FFH, but I doubt it will be less presale heavy than TLK.
So I'd but the lower border at Hollywood, the upper at TLK and guess it will do around JW3.

 

Let's hope I am right, cinemas still need well performing movies.

Don't think I'll be able to do the same for JWD, but I'll try. Other movies were I'll try will be Thor and Avatar.

Can't say anything about any other movie and probably only will do last 7 days.
Live is quite busy.

 

Hoping for most movies staying almost flat.

But I doubt DS2 will be able to do that.

 

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   97 1330 38046 2,56

+36.55% (%-increase slightly lower than yesterday and way lower than i expected.)

(Cinema based: Cs Bremen: 553 (20 shows), Cx Bremen 210 (43 shows), Cs Frankfurt 567 (34 shows))
The Cx Bremen numbers are still weirdly small. Yes the show numbers are that different. Available seat wise the two cinemas in Bremen are quite close (10k each) while the Cs Fra has 18k

 

Hollywood => 329k

John Wick 3 => 392k

TLK => 445k

 

I guess, the John Wick 3 comp puts it close to 400k, if I'd do an adjusted one only for CS Bremen and Cs Frankfurt it would end up around 435k.

I feel like it could break out though.

 

It's probably a bad idea to count all four days as the CS Bremen is always more spread out (meaning if you look at it before preview it has like a 20 % share of the preview sales but a 40-50% share of the Sunday presages).

 

As I am missing post Covid comps - this is all really shaky.

 

But I might be overestimating how presales heavy it will be and I am doing a TLK again (where I said 400-500k and that opened to 922k). And Thursday being a holiday makes it even worse to compare.

 

 

right now I'd go with 440k + 65k Previews for a 505k overall opening weekend. And a total of around 1.8-2.0m

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9 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

yep, cloudy to rainy weather seems to help a lot too, some good holds despite the big opener!

Yeah.

Today looked nice. Should be worth at least 125k (so at least 205k Previews + Thursday), hopefully higher. Didn't do an exact count but took some looks through out the day and they looked decent.

So I'd say its on track for a 500k true weekend (or slightly below).

 

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First weekend estimates from insidekino.de for Germany:

#1: Top Gun 2 - 575k admissions incl previews (slightly below 500k for the weekend proper)

#2: Strange 2 - 175k (-14%, strong weather influence obviously)

#3: propably Fantastic Beasts 3 with 62,5k (a 9% increase)

ok openings for domestic family/girl productions Immenhof and Mia and Me with 65 and 75k admissions incl previews

Edited by IndustriousAngel
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1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de for Germany:

#1: Top Gun 2 - 575k admissions incl previews (slightly below 500k for the weekend proper)

#2: Strange 2 - 175k (-14%, strong weather influence obviously)

#3: probably Fantastic Beasts 3 with 62,5k (a 9% increase)

ok openings for domestic family/girl productions Immenhof and Mia and Me with 65 and 75k admissions incl previews

Previews were 80k

Thursday was 140k (€1.45m)

so he expects something like 

140k

90k

155k

110k

 

I think, unless the weather gets sunnier than expected, it should get to 500k (I'd actually say including previews 600k is the target).

 

Strange: 52k (€530k)

FB 3: 20k (€185k)

source: blickpunktfilm.de

 

FB3 should be at 2750k after Sunday, meaning 2.9m is the new target (next Sunday and Monday are aided by Pfingsten) and if the weather plays along 3m is a very small possibility in the future against (like 1 %).

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I think Friday will end up way higher than 90k - I‘d say flat (morning shows missing or slightly below yesterday) but prime time (7-9pm) looked at least as strong and later shows were mostly dead yesterday while they have sold some tickets today).

 

I fear that tomorrow the numbers will say something different, but I don‘t think today dropped much if at all from yesterday. (Maybe even a slight increase).

So 140k Friday.

I think FB3 and DS2 should perform better too.

Maybe we get

140k

145k

175k

110k

for 565k

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1 hour ago, Taruseth said:

I think Friday will end up way higher than 90k - I‘d say flat (morning shows missing or slightly below yesterday) but prime time (7-9pm) looked at least as strong and later shows were mostly dead yesterday while they have sold some tickets today).

 

I fear that tomorrow the numbers will say something different, but I don‘t think today dropped much if at all from yesterday. (Maybe even a slight increase).

So 140k Friday.

I think FB3 and DS2 should perform better too.

Maybe we get

140k

145k

175k

110k

for 565k

Friday, in between national holiday and weekend probably boost the sales since many will likely take a day off to gap the holiday.

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Saturday trend (insidekino)

TGM: 575k

DS2: 190k (-6%)

Mia & Me: 75k

Immenhof: 70k

FB3: 65k (+14%)

Dog: 52.5k (+12% / -12% with Previews last weekend)

The Lost City: 35k (+8%)

Bad Guys: 30k (+52%!!!) already increased 11% last weekend

Sonic 2: 30k (+36%!)

Biene Maja: 25k (+5%) increased 2 % last weekend

 

Overall a nice weekend.

 

Seems like the north had a better hold. But weather also was more cloudy than in NRW, Hessen etc. so that probably lead to a better hold here.

 

And taking a look is nowhere near as precise as actually counting.

Edited by Taruseth
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4 hours ago, RthMav said:

TGM Sat trend would look to be about right

Yeah.

And days look more like

82.5k

140k

127.5k

140k

85k

 

I really though he could increase the trend, but Saturday probably wasn't better than Thursday.

 

Saturday trend (insidekino)

TGM: 575k

DS2: 190k (-6%)

Mia & Me: 85k

Immenhof: 75k

FB3: 75k (+31%)

Dog: 55k (+17% / - 8% with Previews last weekend)

The Lost City: 37.5k (+15%)

Bad Guys: 37.5k (+90%!! last weekend was up 11 %) it's in its 11th week!

Sonic 2: 32.5k (+48%!)

Biene Maja: 32.5k (+36%)

 

(Bad guys is just 68% below opening weekend - in it's 11th week).

 

 

Overall a nice weekend with some depth (obviously aided by both the weather and the holiday).

Thinking next weekend will be not so nice, weather is predicted to become a lot nicer and no holiday on Thursday instead a Monday holiday - which will increase the Sunday and weekday number will be good.

 

Not certain if TGM will actually reach 2m (it should).

DS2 will most likely get to 2m, while FB3 at 2765k (or something around that). Should get to 2.9m, but unless next weekend it gets a really good hold will still fall short of 3m, meaning all our hopes lay on JWD for the first 3m movie this year (just so it won't be the Minion movie).

Edited by Taruseth
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