BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

NTTD did 6m...

 

I ...

 

I actually forgot about that movie.

[Taruseth]

On 6/5/2022 at 12:18 AM, Taruseth said:

Jurassic World Dominion (T-3 from OD so T-4 from TFSS)

 

Wednesday at CS Lübeck:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		5	126	1301	9,68

 

 

 

WTFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		118	825	48429	1,70

 

 

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		89	537	38079	1,41

 

 

 

W at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		29	288	10350	2,78

 

Other days: 

T: 115

F: 140

S: 208

S: 74

 

TG:M T-4 only TFSS):

TG:M: 722k.

 

Useless comps for TFSS (counted Wednesday evening):

TLK => 180k

TG:M => 234k

 

It feels like it's lacking the drive it needs to post big numbers, thinking it could come in under 450k. TGM did nicely during the final days, while Dominion doesn't really seem to be picking up an steam.

If we take the 18 % increase for the true weekend (TFSS) and reapply it 4 times we get to it doubling its presales until Wednesday evening increasing the TLK comp to 360k.

Taking a 15% 20% 30% 40% approach gets it to 450k.

Optimistic would be:

20% 30% 35% 45% for 550k.

  Reveal hidden contents

With final day walk ups of TG:M it would be:

4 times 18 %: 468k

15% 20% 30% 40%: 587k

20% 30% 35% 45%: 715k

 

I am not confident in this movie right now, let's see how its resales perform tomorrow and on Monday.

 

Still thinking it has a solid chance of opening around 500k + 100k OD.

 

 

No tickets sold at the CS Lübeck

 

WTFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		118	965	48429	1,99

 

 

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		89	632	38079	1,66

 

 

 

W at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		29	333	10350	3,22

 

 

TFSS increased by roughly 18%.

 

Just for fun: Only got Wednesday evening comps (so T-0, this is T-3 (well actually T-2) but those numbers are for the true weekend):

Spoiler

Aladdin (289k): 493 => 370k

John Wick 3 (285k): 967 => 186k

Godzilla (140k): 328 => 270k

Rocketman (119k): 175 => 430k

Dark Phoenix (124k): 333 => 235k

MIBI (113k): 221 => 323k

Five Feet Apart (106k): 85 => 788k

Spider-Man FFH (434k): 2058 => 133k

TLK (922k): 2755 => 211k

H&S (491k): 1058 => 293k

Hollywood (439k): 1774 => 156k

TS 4 (238k): 388 => 388k

TROS (1388k): 11206 => 78k

TG:M (530k): 1330 => 252k

We can get almost everything.

400k over the weekend should really happen, anything more than that - no idea. For now I am staying with 500k+100k - it's a rather walkup heavy movie and there is no need to buy a seat in advance as it has enough showings.

Hopefully a Wednesday evening count will tell us more - cause I don't know if I can do one on Monday or Tuesday.

Edited June 5, 2022 by Taruseth

[Aristis]

Yesterday seems to have been much stronger than predicted (TG:M even had its best day yet)

 

TG:M 407,5k (-23%/-34%) 1,165M

DS2 115k (-43%) 1,993M

FB3 45k (-40%) 2,835k

[RJ-195]

21 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Yesterday seems to have been much stronger than predicted (TG:M even had its best day yet)

 

TG:M 407,5k (-23%/-34%) 1,165M

DS2 115k (-43%) 1,993M

FB3 45k (-40%) 

Today is a holiday in there right ?

[titanic2187]

10 hours ago, Taruseth said:

 

From 2010 to 2021 65 % of the yearly top 10 got a 4x, or in other words 4x is average for big movies.

FB3 wil probably get exactly a 4x.

Even DS2 will get to a 3.4x.

For TG2 a 4x would mean 2120k, honestly, I am not sold on it hitting that yet - thinking it will crawl past 2m, but won't get any further. 

 

Tomorrow is a small sign of hope, should be an overall good day, but next weekend might get even better weather (and then also in southern Germany), so I am expecting another drop.

 

 

Oh, my 4x legs was based on 613k including preview admission, that would mean something like 2.45m final total for TGM. That is a very high number to hope for but knowing German like buddy movie (See all Tarantino films, Intouchabels, Fack ju, Hangover), TGM should, to a certain degree, benefit from the preference. Also, there will be some whitsun school holiday in southern state, not sure what is it but holiday is a holiday.....

[Aristis]

10 minutes ago, RJ-195 said:

Today is a holiday in there right ?

Yes, Pentecost

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, Aristis said:

Yesterday seems to have been much stronger than predicted (TG:M even had its best day yet)

 

TG:M 407,5k (-23%/-34%) 1,165M

DS2 115k (-43%) 1,993M

FB3 45k (-40%) 2,835k

I expected a good day but not that good.

@charlie Jatinder Any idea how good yesterday was? 150k?

But that is a better hold.

FB3 would have needed a better hold; it might end up like this.

8th Wdays: 18k (total 2790k)

9th Wend: 45k (total 2835k)

9th Wdays: 20k (total 2855k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2880k)

10th Wdays: 7.5k (total 2887.5k)

11th Wend: 17.5k (total 2905k)

11th Wdays: 5k (total 2910k)

12th Wend: 10k (total 2915k)

12th Wdays: 2.5k (total 2917.5k)

13th Wend: 7.5k (total 2925k)

End.

Chance for 3m is still there, but I'd say only like 30-40% likely.

especially if it has a great day today and manages to hold well next weekend (like 25k days and 35k Wend it could get to 3000k)

 

 

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Oh, my 4x legs was based on 613k including preview admission, that would mean something like 2.45m final total for TGM. That is a very high number to hope for but knowing German like buddy movie (See all Tarantino films, Intouchabels, Fack ju, Hangover), TGM should, to a certain degree, benefit from the preference. Also, there will be some whitsun school holiday in southern state, not sure what is it but holiday is a holiday.....

Puuh, I always try to do true weekend, primarily because that way adding days before the weekend doesn't help getting a big OWend, but, I know that, it helps with legs, movies that open earlier tend to have slightly better legs.

And it's Pentacost holiday.

So something like this?:

Previews: 83k

1st Wend: 530,5k (total 613,6k)

1st Wdays: 144k (total 757.5k)

2nd Wend: 407.5k (total 1165k)

2nd Wdays: 200k (total 1365k)

3rd Wend: 225k (total 1590k) (good weather and JWD)

3rd Wdays: 80k (total 1670k)

4th Wend: 160k (total 1830k)

4th Wdays: 80k (total 1910k)

5th Wend: 140k (total 2050k)

5th Wdays 100k (total 2150k)

6th Wend: 60k (total 2210k) (Thor)

6th Wdays: 40k (total  2250k)

7th Wend: 45k (total 2295k)

7th Wdays: 30k (total 2325k)

8th Wend: 35k (total 2360k)

9th Wdays: 15k (total 2375k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2400k)

10th Wdays: 10k (total 2410k)

Adding another 100k after that 2510k

 

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by Taruseth

[RJ-195]

2 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

I expected a good day but not that good.

But that is a better hold.

FB3 would have needed a better hold; it might end up like this.

8th Wdays: 18k (total 2790k)

9th Wend: 45k (total 2835k)

9th Wdays: 20k (total 2855k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2880k)

10th Wdays: 7.5k (total 2887.5k)

11th Wend: 17.5k (total 2905k)

11th Wdays: 5k (total 2910k)

12th Wend: 10k (total 2915k)

12th Wdays: 2.5k (total 2917.5k)

13th Wend: 7.5k (total 2925k)

End.

Chance for 3m is still there, but I'd say only like 30-40% likely.

especially if it has a great day today and manages to hold well next weekend (like 25k days and 35k Wend it could get to 3000k)

 

 

Puuh, I always try to do true weekend, primarily because that way adding days before the weekend doesn't help getting a big OWend, but, I know that, it helps with legs, movies that open earlier tend to have slightly better legs.

And it's Pentacost holiday.

So something like this?:

Previews: 83k

1st Wend: 530,5k (total 613,6k)

1st Wdays: 144k (total 757.5k)

2nd Wend: 407.5k (total 1165k)

2nd Wdays: 200k (total 1365k)

3rd Wend: 225k (total 1590k) (good weather and JWD)

3rd Wdays: 80k (total 1670k)

4th Wend: 160k (total 1830k)

4th Wdays: 80k (total 1910k)

5th Wend: 140k (total 2050k)

5th Wdays 100k (total 2150k)

6th Wend: 60k (total 2210k) (Thor)

6th Wdays: 40k (total  2250k)

7th Wend: 45k (total 2295k)

7th Wdays: 30k (total 2325k)

8th Wend: 35k (total 2360k)

9th Wdays: 15k (total 2375k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2400k)

10th Wdays: 10k (total 2410k)

Adding another 100k after that 2510k

 

 

How much 2510k in euro ? Is it €27m or 28m?

Edited June 6, 2022 by RJ-195

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, RJ-195 said:

How much 2510k in euro ? Is it €27m or 28m?

Probably €26m.

And it's a rough Idea of what it would need to get to @titanic2187 idea of a 4x from weekend with previews.

Not yet sold on that happening, but the Sunday being so much stronger certainly put it back into the realm of things that have a significant chance of happening.

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

@charlie Jatinder Any idea how good yesterday was? 150k?

175k

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

I expected a good day but not that good.

@charlie Jatinder Any idea how good yesterday was? 150k?

But that is a better hold.

FB3 would have needed a better hold; it might end up like this.

8th Wdays: 18k (total 2790k)

9th Wend: 45k (total 2835k)

9th Wdays: 20k (total 2855k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2880k)

10th Wdays: 7.5k (total 2887.5k)

11th Wend: 17.5k (total 2905k)

11th Wdays: 5k (total 2910k)

12th Wend: 10k (total 2915k)

12th Wdays: 2.5k (total 2917.5k)

13th Wend: 7.5k (total 2925k)

End.

Chance for 3m is still there, but I'd say only like 30-40% likely.

especially if it has a great day today and manages to hold well next weekend (like 25k days and 35k Wend it could get to 3000k)

 

 

Puuh, I always try to do true weekend, primarily because that way adding days before the weekend doesn't help getting a big OWend, but, I know that, it helps with legs, movies that open earlier tend to have slightly better legs.

And it's Pentacost holiday.

So something like this?:

Previews: 83k

1st Wend: 530,5k (total 613,6k)

1st Wdays: 144k (total 757.5k)

2nd Wend: 407.5k (total 1165k)

2nd Wdays: 200k (total 1365k)

3rd Wend: 225k (total 1590k) (good weather and JWD)

3rd Wdays: 80k (total 1670k)

4th Wend: 160k (total 1830k)

4th Wdays: 80k (total 1910k)

5th Wend: 140k (total 2050k)

5th Wdays 100k (total 2150k)

6th Wend: 60k (total 2210k) (Thor)

6th Wdays: 40k (total  2250k)

7th Wend: 45k (total 2295k)

7th Wdays: 30k (total 2325k)

8th Wend: 35k (total 2360k)

9th Wdays: 15k (total 2375k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2400k)

10th Wdays: 10k (total 2410k)

Adding another 100k after that 2510k

 

 

I think next weekend will be 300k.

[Taruseth]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

175k

wow, that's a lot, thank you.

[altglascontainer]

On 6/2/2022 at 11:14 AM, altglascontainer said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion (June 8th)  Ba-Wü Seat Report T-6

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	235	1914	49133	3,90%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 202

 

Comp

1.003x of The Batman T-6(0.51M€/49.250 Adm. OD)

0.273x of DS2 T-6 (0.47M€/44.000 Adm. OD)

0.683x of TG2 T-6 (0.58M€/56.750 Adm. OD)

 

 

Jurassic World Dominion (June 8th)  Ba-Wü Seat Report T-6

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	235	3853	49133	7,84%

 

Total Seats Sold Last 4 Days: 1939

 

Comp

0.303x of DS2 T-2 (0.69M€/65.000 Adm. OD)

 

My graph suggests JW D is at the same place as top gun 2. so 85k OD is possible if presales follow top gun 2.

[Taruseth]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think next weekend will be 300k.

If the weather is like they predict, I highly doubt that, but I overstated the drop in the weekend following it, I forgot Feast of Corpus Christi (Frohnleichnam) on 16th June (a Thursday) that should help the following weekend and probably means a better hold there - it's a public holiday in 2/3 of Germany (I live in the north, am from Lower Saxony but now live in Schleswig-Holstein and we don't have it as a public holiday here so I never remember it).

 

If the weather won't turn as good as predicted 300k are definitely possible and FB3 should go over 3m then.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Taruseth

[IndustriousAngel]

38 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

FB3 should go over 3m then.

FB3 >3mil is pretty much locked by now I think; it's been one of the most popular releases in recent times so it's bound to get a lot of slots in this summer's open air events.

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

FB3 >3mil is pretty much locked by now I think; it's been one of the most popular releases in recent times so it's bound to get a lot of slots in this summer's open air events.

Oh true, didn't even think about those.

I am just hoping we get more than two 3m movies this year.

5 would be great, but I am not seeing that right now, even with FB3.

If FB3 does we get 3: FB3, Minions and Avatar 2. With a maybe for TG2 (after the 2nd weekend hold in the us etc. I am not counting that out just yet, especially if it holds well against JWD next weekend). A month ago I would have said JWD has a chance, right now I am doubtful about that, but obviously hoping for that.

And outside of those I have no idea - don't think Liebesdings will play that good - but we never know.

 

Those could also (in the second July half) help TG2 out a bit.

My dream end of the year would probably be at least this:

Avatar 2: 9m

Minions: 4.5m

JWD: 3.5m

FB3: 3m

TG2: 3m

Not that it will happen, but one can certainly dream.

[titanic2187]

8 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Puuh, I always try to do true weekend, primarily because that way adding days before the weekend doesn't help getting a big OWend, but, I know that, it helps with legs, movies that open earlier tend to have slightly better legs.

And it's Pentacost holiday.

So something like this?:

Previews: 83k

1st Wend: 530,5k (total 613,6k)

1st Wdays: 144k (total 757.5k)

2nd Wend: 407.5k (total 1165k)

2nd Wdays: 200k (total 1365k)

3rd Wend: 225k (total 1590k) (good weather and JWD)

3rd Wdays: 80k (total 1670k)

4th Wend: 160k (total 1830k)

4th Wdays: 80k (total 1910k)

5th Wend: 140k (total 2050k)

5th Wdays 100k (total 2150k)

6th Wend: 60k (total 2210k) (Thor)

6th Wdays: 40k (total  2250k)

7th Wend: 45k (total 2295k)

7th Wdays: 30k (total 2325k)

8th Wend: 35k (total 2360k)

9th Wdays: 15k (total 2375k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2400k)

10th Wdays: 10k (total 2410k)

Adding another 100k after that 2510k

 

 

2.5m certainly doesn't sound a unrealistic goal, even 3m that you wish for is not out of reach yet if wom is really monstrous but at this point I don't think the biggest worry is JWD or Thor or Minion, it is The Sun.... 

Edited June 6, 2022 by titanic2187

[altglascontainer]

23 hours ago, altglascontainer said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion (June 8th)  Ba-Wü Seat Report T-6

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	235	3853	49133	7,84%

 

Total Seats Sold Last 4 Days: 1939

 

Comp

0.303x of DS2 T-2 (0.69M€/65.000 Adm. OD)

 

My graph suggests JW D is at the same place as top gun 2. so 85k OD is possible if presales follow top gun 2.

 

Jurassic World Dominion (June 8th)  Ba-Wü Seat Report T-1

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	235	4881	49133	10,69%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 1028

 

Comp

1.334x of The Batman T-1 (0.68M€/65.500 Adm. OD)

0.445x of DS2 T-1 (0.76M€/71.750 Adm. OD)

0.991x of Top Gun Maverick T-1 (0.84M€/82.250 Adm. OD)

 

Ok, Jurassic World Dominion definitely picked up steam. I would say 75k as baseline, but because my comps were around 10k under the actual preview numbers the last two times, i wouldn't be surprised to see 95-100k OD for JWD.

[charlie Jatinder]

Yeah 100K possible 

[Aristis]

1,28M admissions for TG:M after Monday (so around 100k+ for the day after 400k 2nd WE)