BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[altglascontainer]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Since DS 2 comp remain unchanged, I would say 85-90K.

 

But I am told school holidays haven't started in Ba Wu so can underindex a bit. 90-100K seems about right.

 

Yep, i think youre right with underindexing. The biggest state of germany, population wise ( North-Rhine Westphalia) has already summer holidays, with northern states joining tomorrow or already having joined.

[Taruseth]

3 hours ago, altglascontainer said:

 

Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-0

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	1	179	6979	36228	19,26%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 1094

 

Comp

1.546x of The Batman T-0 (0.79M€/76.000 Adm. OD)

0.536x of DS2 T-0 (0.91M€/86.250 Adm. OD)

1.208x Top Gun T-0 (1.03M€/100.250 Adm. OD)

JW: D T-0 - missed

 

Compared to Taruseth, i am little more conservative. batman comp was peak corona measures with no walk-ups.

OD prediction 100-120k

You are going to be way closer than me though - my comp was too heavily based on Lübeck and that has summer holidays.

 

If I'd had to say anything now I'd say right around JWD so 100k or slightly below.

The CS Bremen pointing towards 65k should have told me that it will open way below what the CS Lübeck suggests.

 

Will do a TFSS count this evening - and comparing it to some movies - hopefully giving some additional idea of where its heading.

[altglascontainer]

As per Mark_g from Inside kino Thor4 OD should be in six Figures 

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, altglascontainer said:

As per Mark_g from Inside kino Thor4 OD should be in six Figures 

So probably something like 105-110k. Wouldn't be to bad - but comps for the weekend:

 

On 7/6/2022 at 12:29 AM, Taruseth said:

 

5th July 2022 Tuesday 23:59 MEST T-1

W at CS Lübeck:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		4	206	921	27.47

 

+47 / +22.8%

 

W at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		26	1363	8519	16.00

 

+253 / +22.8%

 

TFSS at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		132	1438	45245	3.18

 

+340 / +31.1%

 

Comps for the CS Lübeck OD only!!!!!:

TGM => 130k

JWD => 135k

DSMOM => 125k

 

For the 3:

TGM => 151k

JWD => 243k

(But to be honest they only recently seemed to have gotten into their regular pattern again - for TGM the CS Bremen had almost the same presales as the CS Frankfurt, for Thor the later one has presales three times as large - or Bremen just loved TGM - though I have no idea why they would).

 

And at those 3 (CS & CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt) for TFSS:

TGM => 738k

JWD => 690k

 

I counted DSMOM at a wrong theater, so I can't use this and I currently can't differentiate what was sold at what theatre.

Only got data for CS Bremen where DSMOM sold 430 tickets for OD while only selling a 170 tickets for Thor, which would mean an OD of around 65k.

 

In other words: Numbers are all over the place - the CS Lübeck is really presale heavy, while the three others seem to be kinda erratic and the CS Bremen recently had presales pattern shift extremely.

But at the CS Lübeck they all seem to suggest an OD of around 125k (it won't match TGM or JWD due to their better walk ups).

Same goes for the weekend, the TGM comp lost almost 100k in the last 24 hours and will probably lose as heavily in the next 24 hours.

Now, if we take a 120k OD and try to apply that to the weekend we might end up with something like this:

 

120k

 

80k

120k

170k

130k

for a 500k opening weekend.

T-0 Wednesday 6th July 2022 23:59+45min

TFSS at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		132	1923	45245	4.25

 

+485 / +33.7%

Comps:

Spider-Man: FFH => 406k

Once upon a Time in Hollywood => 476k

 

(TROS => 238k)

NOT USEFUL - just for fun:

TLK => 644k

TG:M => 760k (it had a better increase today than TGM did)

JWD => 648k

John Wick 3 => 567k

So my final weekend prediction will be:

 

425k

 

And I am going all out: Minion will take the weekend (in admissions)

Thor 4 will have a hard time getting above Thor 3.

 

And also for fun (or the opposite):

Liebesdings:

TFSS at the 3:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		48	28	12040	0.23

 

Comps:

Five Feet Apart => 36k

Menschheit => 33k

Minions 2 => 32k

 

(Elvis => 22k - all others below 20k, as low as TROS with 3.47k - so obviously useless).

 

Either we have the rom com Friday blow up or we have a big failure at hand.

 

Going to be optimistic and say 100k OWend.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Was looking 115-125K last night. Will see where it ends. 500-550K may be doable for 5-days.

Edited July 7, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[IndustriousAngel]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Was looking 115-125K last night. Will see where it ends. 500-550K may be doable for 5-days.

according to MarkG from insidekino.de, it was about 110k

 

I suspect numbers in Austria are a bit better, once more this year

[Taruseth]

12 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

according to MarkG from insidekino.de, it was about 110k

 

I suspect numbers in Austria are a bit better, once more this year

DS2 Internat multipliziert would mean a 436k weekend (so 546k 5-day opening) - finishing barely above Thor 3 (if at all).

 

And I am staying with it:

Minions 2 over Thor 4.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Taruseth

[Samwise the Brave]

I'm late to the conversation but no MCU sequel is safe to make more than the previous one with the exception of AM3 and a possible Shang-Chi 2, also Eternals 2 if realised as a movie. And of course Thor now but not by much honestly. Thinking

 

Thor 4 1.75

BP2 1.6

AM3 1.2

Guardians 3 2.7

Cap 4 1.5

Avengers 5 4.0

If they make a double one again then 

Avengers 5.2 at 5.5-6.0 but just if it's later than 2025 or 2026

 

Also not implying it's impossible for some of those to make more than the previous, as Black Panther 2 might carry it out with late holiday legs but it's going to be more and more difficult with every sequel

[Aristis]

1st Trend

 

#1 Minions2 500k (+11%) 1,137.5M

#2 Thor4 465k (575k 5-day) 

#3 TG:M 105k (-20%) 2,5M

#4 JW3 85k (-38%) 1,642.5M

#5 Elvis 55k (-14%) 287.5k

 

Minions2 does it again and ist looking to increase in its second weekend. Weather wasn't as great yesterday and vacation certainly helped too. 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Aristis

[Aristis]

On 7/1/2022 at 10:10 AM, Aristis said:

Thursday

#1 Minions 60k

#2 TG:M 18k (-3%) 

#3 JW3 17k (-13%) 

#4 Elvis 10k (-0%) 

#5 Black Phone 6k (-0%) 

 

The first Minions movie had 160k admissions OD. 

 

Thursday

 

#1 Minions 95k (+58%) 

#2 Thor4 90k (+110k Wed) 

#3 TG:M 20k (+11%) 

#4 JW3 16k (-6%) 

#5 Elvis 11k (+10%) 

#6 Liebesdings 10,5k

 

[IndustriousAngel]

good for Minions2, so-so for Thor4. Pretty disappointing numbers for Liebesdings (in Austria, the German romcom is selling even worse but that was to be expected)

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, Aristis said:

Thursday

 

#1 Minions 95k (+58%) 

#2 Thor4 90k (+110k Wed) 

#3 TG:M 20k (+11%) 

#4 JW3 16k (-6%) 

#5 Elvis 11k (+10%) 

#6 Liebesdings 10,5k

 

Looks good for Minions.

 

Thinking Thor 4 could do around 115-125k today (if the later is the case it might be able to get a bit closer to 500k over the weekend.

 

Liebesdings should do 20k today - if not, the movie is dead.

[Taruseth]

2nd Trend

 

#1 Minions2 550k (+22%)

#2 Thor4 465k (575k 5-day) 

#3 TG:M 110k (-16%) 2,5M

#4 JW3 90k (-34%) 1,645M

#5 Elvis 52.5k (-18%) 285k

#6 Liebesdings ??? (Including Previews 70k)

#7 Black Phone 27.5k (-37%)

 

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by Taruseth

[IndustriousAngel]

8 hours ago, Taruseth said:

2nd Trend

 

#1 Minions2 550k (+22%)

#2 Thor4 465k (575k 5-day) 

#3 TG:M 110k (-16%) 2,5M

#4 JW3 90k (-34%) 1,645M

#5 Elvis 52.5k (-18%) 285k

#6 Liebesdings ??? (Including Previews 70k)

#7 Black Phone 27.5k (-37%)

 

 

very nice, general upwards trend!

[IndustriousAngel]

it's rainy and cool here and the Minions will dominate the whole day, very strong afternoon and evening numbers. Thor otoh seems to be frontloaded, weak Sunday going by presales despite the weather. Maverick by now on smaller screens but admissions are nearly on Thor level. Jurassic World is shedding screens left and right, will be out of most theaters soon.

Edited July 10, 2022 by IndustriousAngel

[Taruseth]

20 hours ago, Taruseth said:

2nd Trend

 

#1 Minions2 550k (+22%)

#2 Thor4 465k (575k 5-day) 

#3 TG:M 110k (-16%) 2,5M

#4 JW3 90k (-34%) 1,645M

#5 Elvis 52.5k (-18%) 285k

#6 Liebesdings ??? (Including Previews 70k)

#7 Black Phone 27.5k (-37%)

 

 

3rd Trend

 

#1 Minions 2 550k (+22%)

#2 Thor4 415k (525k 5-day) 

#3 TG:M 110k (-16%) 2,5M

#4 JW3 95k (-30%) 1,645M

#5 Elvis 50k (-22%) 285k

#6 Liebesdings ??? (Including Previews 70k)

#7 Black Phone 32.5k (-25%) nice

 

 

Ouch - I am starting to  think Thor 4 could end below Thor 3.

Thor 3 opened with 403k with a Tuesday start.

 

Also: the Thor upward trend is kinda weak:

Thor 1: 1119k

Thor 2: 1434k

Thor 3: 1480k

Edited July 10, 2022 by Taruseth

[Issac Newton]

Flash Numbers 

① Minions 2 - 575K / 1.2M

② Thor: Love &Thunder - 340K / 450K

③ Top Gun: Maverick - 125K / 2.5M

④ Jurassic World: Dominion - 110K / 1.7M

⑤ Elvis - 57K / 300K

[altglascontainer]

Monday-Trend:

Minions 2 - 572,5T

Thor 4 - 557,5T (447,5T),

Top Gun Maverick - 125T,

JW D - 102,5T,

Elvis - 57,5T,

Liebesdings - 72,5T,

Black Phone - 35T

 

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, altglascontainer said:

Monday-Trend:

Minions 2 - 572,5T

Thor 4 - 557,5T (447,5T),

Top Gun Maverick - 125T,

JW D - 102,5T,

Elvis - 57,5T,

Liebesdings - 72,5T,

Black Phone - 35T

 

JWD getting one last six figure weekend, nice - but Minions 4-day over Thor's 5-day - lol.

 

Not as embarrassing as Liebesdings though.

 

I kinda hoped that after the weekend I could say that I am glad over performed compared to what it looked like before the weekend, but it didn't do that - only 22.5k above it, that sucks.

 

Biggest advantage is the absolutely empty August and September and even the rest of July is kinda empty. Which keeps the hope alive that Thor will get to 1.5m.

 

[WayneBorg]

So apparently the press release Uni sent out last night had Minions dropping 5% for a 4.2m USD weekend and a 10.4m USD cume. Looks like their figures were not correct. Wonder if they will update them and I think there's a 1m USD difference or so.