IndustriousAngel Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 (edited) Final estimates ... not so good: #1 SW8 725k (-55%) #2 Jumanji 210k #3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 190k #4 PP3 175k (the way it's behaving I begin to doubt 1mil total) #5 Ferdinand 72,5k (-29%) #6 Paddington 2 62,5k (-22%) Merry christmas to everyone here! Edited December 24, 2017 by IndustriousAngel 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 40 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: Final estimates ... not so good: #1 SW8 725k (-55%) #2 Jumanji 210k #3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 190k #4 PP3 175k (the way it's behaving I begin to doubt 1mil total) #5 Ferdinand 65k (-26%) #6 Paddington 2 55k (-32%) Merry christmas to everyone here! I hoped SW8 would increase a bit from the other estimates, but seems like yesterday was not that strong. Based on the first Thursday estimate I thought PP3 would open with at least 230k, but if I remember correctly that day was way overestimated. Are those the estimates from Insidekino? Because they have Ferdinand and Paddington a bit higher. Merry Christmas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, Taruseth said: Are those the estimates from Insidekino? Because they have Ferdinand and Paddington a bit higher. Merry Christmas You're right, I've edited the correct numbers in ... Paddington seems to have good legs, should see a good holiday run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 What do you see TLJ finishing with? and I noticed something really interesting at the local cinema: Presales for 25th: 393 26th: 401 27th: 482 (Probably the Carrie Fisher effect) I didn't thought the 27th might be that strong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RthDeadWov Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Big drops Xmas eve from Sat TLJ/PP3 -80,Jum - 60 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 (edited) 21 minutes ago, The Greatest Rth said: Big drops Xmas eve from Sat TLJ/PP3 -80,Jum - 60 Those holds are awful, but isn't that typical in germany, holds normally are a lot worse than in the us on Christmas Eve, as far as I know. Edited December 25, 2017 by Taruseth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 (edited) In my cinema, there was 1 (!) showing of TLJ yesterday. Christmas Eve is one of the worst moviegoing days all year, so the drop isnt surprising. This week will have insane weekday business though. Edited December 25, 2017 by Brainbug Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 my cinema's last show started at 3pm so no big surprise here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 FWIW, this week in my cinema has already sold more tickets for TLJ than the OW+Monday+Tuesday of last week (Reserved seating comparisons. Walk-Ups were solid, but not as strong as TFA last week). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Mark G. expects a slight increase for TLJ to ~750k this weekend, while everything but PP3 goes up by quite a big (granted, that's easier to do with lower numbers). But more importantly, the chart lists TLJ with 4.275m if that would happen. Subtract the 750k and compare it to the number after last weekend (~2.8m) and the current weekdays would be around 700k or so. Obviously no comparison to the almost 1.3m TFA had during its second set of weekdays, but then again, that movie didn't have the 25th among those days, which is still a weak box office day. If I'm not mistaken, Rogue One had 625k or so during the weekdays, but that was also without the disadvantage of the 25th. I'm really not sure if the 6.5m he expects as final total is all that likely. Even if this weekend would end up like this, TLJ would still be slightly behind AOTC and ROTS at the same time of their runs. The following weekdays could move it past those two, but still, the difference would be rather slim, and the holidays would be over. With those two only reaching 5.8m and 5.6m respectively, 6.5m might be a bit too high. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, George Parr said: Mark G. expects a slight increase for TLJ to ~750k this weekend, while everything but PP3 goes up by quite a big (granted, that's easier to do with lower numbers). But more importantly, the chart lists TLJ with 4.275m if that would happen. Subtract the 750k and compare it to the number after last weekend (~2.8m) and the current weekdays would be around 700k or so. Obviously no comparison to the almost 1.3m TFA had during its second set of weekdays, but then again, that movie didn't have the 25th among those days, which is still a weak box office day. If I'm not mistaken, Rogue One had 625k or so during the weekdays, but that was also without the disadvantage of the 25th. I'm really not sure if the 6.5m he expects as final total is all that likely. Even if this weekend would end up like this, TLJ would still be slightly behind AOTC and ROTS at the same time of their runs. The following weekdays could move it past those two, but still, the difference would be rather slim, and the holidays would be over. With those two only reaching 5.8m and 5.6m respectively, 6.5m might be a bit too high. I swear, if TLJ ends up with fewer admissions than Fack Ju Göhte 3....i might just finally give up on my country... it doesnt look like it, but if we cant even built an airport, such a scenario appears not to be impossible 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 According to Insidekino the second week had 1,41m, would mean 0,69m on the three weekdays and a total of 3,53m admissions sold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Star Wars 8 720.998 816 884 2.837.996 33.810.398 -56 2 2 Jumanji 197.999 523 379 220.335 2.283.402 - 1 3 Pitch Perfect 3 178.561 494 361 178.561 1.511.581 - 1 4 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 159.852 590 271 194.362 1.640.808 - 1 5 Ferdinand 75.259 659 114 207.264 1.510.226 -26 2 6 Coco 66.078 598 110 620.599 4.951.240 -39 4 7 Paddington 2 60.040 671 89 788.958 5.324.122 -26 5 8 Murder on the Orient Express 33.320 455 73 1.184.187 10.387.799 -44 7 9 The Star 32.340 428 76 153.489 978.430 -8 3 10 Fack Ju Göhte 3 27.764 452 61 5.901.662 51.423.921 -45 9 11 Ayla 18.001 66 273 89.257 812.081 -35 3 12 Augsburger Puppenkiste: Weihnachtsmann … 15.372 281 55 69.382 387.083 -16 4 13 Daddy's Home 2 11.844 305 39 159.987 1.241.749 -71 3 14 Aus dem Nichts 10.767 158 68 264.286 2.210.651 -55 5 15 Bad Moms 2 8.740 180 49 786.251 6.706.088 -64 7 16 Burg Schreckenstein 2 8.570 335 26 61.144 385.213 -47 3 17 The Mountain Between Us 8.298 225 37 94.160 794.723 -68 3 18 Ôtez-moi d'un doute 6.921 74 94 6.921 55.706 - 1 19 Hexe Lilli rettet Weihnachten 6.593 266 25 252.995 1.606.029 +456 7 20 Un Beau Soleil Intérieur 5.860 77 76 27.737 217.045 -57 2 Due to holiday alignment, it was a rather slow weekend which should be countered by strong weekdays. Family stuff, especially for the very young, were the only releases with decent drops or even increases. Among openers, Jumanji surprised me while Pitch Perfect 3 and domestic comedy Dieses bescheuerte Herz stayed behind expectations. Star Wars 8 was the clear winner but with less than 3mil total after two weekends, it remains to be seen if it can cross 7mil total - MarkG from insidekino.de is predicting 6,5mil. Next weekend: It's the rare weekend that has not a single wide release, but this is such a weekend. Obviously, holdovers should see excellent holds, some even increases. SW8 will stay on top, and #2 will probably be close between Jumanji and DbH, while PP3 was heavily frontloaded (but should still manage #4 once more). Of course, weekend numbers are only half the story over the holidays so for a final asessment we'll have to wait until after the first Jan weekend. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The next set of weekdays might actually play out a bit better than last year due to more states still being on holiday. The effect probably won't be that much bigger due to the states with the biggest populations not having all that much of a different holiday schedule, but it still might be noticeable. The following states have holiday throughout the entire first week of January (using German names because I am lazy ): BW, Bayern, Bremen, Hamburg, Hessen, Niedersachsen, NRW, Rheinland-Pfalz, Schleswig-Holstein, Thüringen, Saarland Hessen even has another week of holidays after that MV+Sachsen-Anhalt have Monday+Tuesday off, Berlin+Brandenburg+Sachsen, Monday off So all 16 states are on holiday on Monday, 13 on Tuesday and 11 the rest of the week In comparison, 2016: BW, Bayern, Bremen, Hamburg, Hessen, Niedersachsen, NRW, Rheinland-Pfalz, Schleswig-Holstein Berlin and Brandenburg Monday+Tuesday off, MV+Sachsen+Sachsen-Anhalt Monday off, Thüringen+Saarland holidays over 14 states had holidays still running on Monday, 11 states had holidays on Tuesday, and 9 states had holidays the rest of the week 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 According to insidekino.de theses are the really long Christmas weekend numbers (which means from Thursday, the 21th till including Wednesday, the 27th, so 7 days/the whole week): , #1 Star Wars 8: 1.41M/3.53M (so 690k from Mo-We) #2 Jumanji: 480k (280k Mo-We) #3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 400 (240k Mo-We) #4 PP3: 315k (135k Mo-We) #5 Ferdinand: 160k (85k Mo-We) #6 Coco: 145k (80k Mo-We) #7 Paddington 2: 120k (60k Mo-We) #8 Murder on the Orient Express: 82.5k (50k Mo-We) #9 FJG 3: 57.5k (30k Mo-We) #10 The Star: 50k (20k Mo-We) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The DBH underperformance is real. I really have no desire to watch this movie, but from trailers alone it looked like 3M+, maybe even 4M admissions. Is the Elyas fatigue finally setting in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Giesi said: The DBH underperformance is real. I really have no desire to watch this movie, but from trailers alone it looked like 3M+, maybe even 4M admissions. Is the Elyas fatigue finally setting in? I expected 3M minimum. Looked like something German audiences ate up. Maybe your right, he had like 3 movies this year? He seems like the german Samuel L. Jackson, appearing everywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 hours ago, Brainbug said: I expected 3M minimum. Looked like something German audiences ate up. Maybe your right, he had like 3 movies this year? He seems like the german Samuel L. Jackson, appearing everywhere. Might develop some legs. Can anyone explain me, why The Star! has the biggest auditorium for next weekdays for the morning show. And SW doesn't for the evening the main shows 16:10 and 20:00 got changed from a 582 to a I think 150 auditorium. That auditorium has nothing after 15:00. Probably they change SW back into that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Taruseth said: Can anyone explain me, why The Star! has the biggest auditorium for next weekdays for the morning show. And SW doesn't for the evening the main shows 16:10 and 20:00 got changed from a 582 to a I think 150 auditorium. That auditorium has nothing after 15:00. Probably they change SW back into that. Morning/Matinee shows favour kid- and family-orientated movies. The Star beeing an animated movie fits that. Doesnt change that fact that its obviously dumb to not give SW the biggest auditoriums at any time of the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 First trend is up, and it looks pretty good: #1 TLJ 900k #2 Jumanji 300k #3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 275k #4 PP3 200k #5 Ferdinand 140k #6 Coco 115k #7 Paddington 2 85k #8 Murder on the Orient Express 60k #9 FjG3 40k #10 Loving Vincent 25k 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...