pepsa Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 59 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: FINALLY a good weekend ... how many bad ones in a row did we have? Frankly I don't want to start counting ... Don't know, I am afraid I can't count that high 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 20, 2018 Author Share Posted July 20, 2018 First weekend estimates from insidekino.de #1: Mamma Mia 2 - 500k admissions #2: HT3 - 275k for the weekend, >500k incl. weekdays #3 around 50k (including Sicario2) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 (edited) And some Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film: The new releases:Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 80k/ 785k US$ - as feared under the estimates which sounded just too good and the South-West report numbers were a bit suspicious; still finally a good numberHotel Transylvania 3: 55k whole day - actually ok, you can guess what weekend numbers would be possible on a rainy weekend Sicario 2: 10.5k → 75k admissions OW predicted in the first trend including previews. The frst Sicario had 90k admissions OW. I don't remember the weather back then but it was October so I would say 75k now are quite ok. The holdovers: Skyscraper: 11k (actuals last Thursday 20.5k) → 55k OW predicted in the first trendJW 2: 11k (20k) → 50k OW in the first trend The First Purge: no actual number, but must have been under 10.5k (20k) → also 50k OW in the first trend Adrift: also no actual Thursday number but ca. 45k OW in the first trend, a good hold counted without its previews (-21%) Edited July 20, 2018 by el sid 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Second trend is up, quite a bit of movement. I'll leave out the # due to extented previews making things look so confusing: Mamma Mia 2 425k HT3 280k / 525k JW2 65k The First Purge 60k Skyscraper 55k Adrift 45k Sicario 2 67.5k (with previews) Ocean's 8 30k 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 MM2 was a one-day wonder ... really more like an event it seems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Yeah, it's definately dropping while HT3 is rising higher and higher. Everything else is increasing as well, here's the new trend: Mamma Mia 2 415k HT3 325k / 570k JW2 70k (-23.5%) The First Purge 70k (-33%) Skyscraper 70k (-26% / -29% with previews) Adrift 50k (-12% / -26%) Sicario 2 72.5k Ocean's 8 35k (-37%) 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 22, 2018 Author Share Posted July 22, 2018 Don't know about Germany but Austria has a non-outdoorsy weekend, so good for the movies. No big sports either except maybe the Tour de France and that's only in the afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 (edited) The better looking Monday update (here in the South Saturday and Sunday were grey and often rainy): #1 MM2 435k #2 HT3 355k/600k since Monday #3 Skyscraper 80k - actually a good hold, counted without its previews last week only -15% #4 The First Purge 77.5k #5 Sicario 75k with previews #6 JW2 72.5k #7 Adrift 52.5k Edited July 23, 2018 by el sid 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 23, 2018 Author Share Posted July 23, 2018 Monday was worse than expected in Austria, too - not too much rain but far from BBQ weather, so family stuff is starting with a strong weekday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 24, 2018 Author Share Posted July 24, 2018 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Hotel Transylvania 3 355.667 685 519 602.691 4.599.427 - 1 2 Mamma Mia! 2 342.934 793 432 433.999 3.840.309 - 1 3 Skyscraper 79.318 517 153 219.883 2.308.264 -16 2 4 The First Purge 77.475 491 158 425.370 3.678.298 -26 3 5 Jurassic World 2 74.082 534 139 2.164.234 23.564.016 -19 7 6 Adrift 52.220 368 142 154.749 1.267.398 -8 2 7 Sicario 2 51.138 401 128 74.149 625.176 - 1 8 Ocean's 8 37.668 425 89 650.968 5.461.289 -32 5 9 Meine teuflisch gute Freundin 22.518 494 46 184.946 1.250.686 -27 4 10 Papst Franziskus 22.244 451 49 339.902 2.618.201 +4 6 11 303 21.606 123 176 26.117 217.827 - 1 12 Jim Knopf & Lukas 20.848 495 42 1.643.221 11.166.923 +73 17 13 Deadpool 2 15.412 264 58 2.187.768 19.854.354 -26 10 14 Love, Simon 11.196 342 33 197.264 1.413.881 -47 4 15 Solo 8.482 202 42 1.328.879 14.359.434 -37 9 16 How to Party with Mom 8.083 260 31 83.654 633.698 -47 3 17 Liliane Susewind 7.797 344 23 416.507 2.656.522 -33 11 18 Luis & die Aliens 7.217 350 21 239.617 1.561.970 -52 9 19 Landrauschen 7.005 54 130 8.394 60.345 - 1 20 Hereditary 4.967 138 36 109.663 955.215 -32 6 Thanks to attractive new releases and rainy weather, a good weekend - still far from excellent. Next weekend: Tag and the second Ant-Man movie are the big releases - Marvel sequels tend to increase, so maybe 200k admissions for A&W? Don't know about Tag, there's not much competition in the comedy market but the same was true for HTPWM and that bellyflopped so who knows? With very little buzz, everything >50k OW has to be considered a success. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Not that weather can truly be predicted more than 3-6 days in advance, but the trends for the next few weeks are truly bonkers. The "worst" day in my city is predicted to be at 28° celsius while being somewhat cloudy, every other day over the next 16 days sits at mostly sunny to sunny, ranging from 29 to 36°, with just one further exception at 27° and sunny! Summer up to now was truly nice. It was often sunny but not too hot, and even the few bad days had nice temperatures, but what is happening now is really too much. It's too hot to do anything outside, and inside it tends to be even worse. Mostly sunny and temperatures in the low to mid 20s is pretty much perfect, this however is not. This might lessen the impact on the box office though. If it's too hot, people might prefer to be inside, and if the weather is great all the time, you don't really need to take advantage of the good weather anymore, because you have it every single day anyway. And at worst, there won't be any huge drops, because all weekends prior to that already had great weather 😁 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 (edited) On 7/25/2018 at 11:40 AM, George Parr said: Not that weather can truly be predicted more than 3-6 days in advance, but the trends for the next few weeks are truly bonkers. The "worst" day in my city is predicted to be at 28° celsius while being somewhat cloudy, every other day over the next 16 days sits at mostly sunny to sunny, ranging from 29 to 36°, with just one further exception at 27° and sunny! Summer up to now was truly nice. It was often sunny but not too hot, and even the few bad days had nice temperatures, but what is happening now is really too much. It's too hot to do anything outside, and inside it tends to be even worse. Mostly sunny and temperatures in the low to mid 20s is pretty much perfect, this however is not. This might lessen the impact on the box office though. If it's too hot, people might prefer to be inside, and if the weather is great all the time, you don't really need to take advantage of the good weather anymore, because you have it every single day anyway. And at worst, there won't be any huge drops, because all weekends prior to that already had great weather 😁 Too hot. We had 34 °C on tuesday and 35 °C yesterday and today. And Prediction for tomorrow is 35 °C and 34 °C for Saturday. So we would have 3 days above 35 °C this year, normally we have 3 days over 30 °C (and like 0.3 days above 35 °C). At 8 this morning the temperature in the laboratory was already 29 °C. Edited July 26, 2018 by Taruseth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Its so hot that many here where i live dont even want to go outside or move in general. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 (edited) Yes, not even the (short) way into the cool and pleasant theaters as it looks at the moment. At least the Thursday estimates for the whole country aren't very existing: The new releases:Ant-Man and the Wasp (released in 548 theaters, the first Ant-Man movie had 140.809 OW/547.133 total admissions): 41k – not too bad but I don't know how frontloaded it will be and in general I don't trust these estimates for bigger new releases much more after several too high estimates in the last weeks (it worked much better for the holdovers) Papillon (305): 3k Catch Me! (254): 5k Ein Lied in Gottes Ohr/Coexister (200): 1.5k Hotel Artemis (175): 1k The holdovers (almost all mediocre or worse): Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 44k (actuals last Thursday 80k) Hotel Transylvania 3: 5k evening only (8k evening only, 55k whole day) The First Purge: 7k (estimated 10k) – quite good Skyscraper: 6.5k (actual number last Thursday 11k) – was underestimated last week Adrift: 4.5k (estimated 6.5k) Sicario 2: 4.5k (actual number last Thursday 10.5k)JW 2: 4k (actual number last Thursday 11k) – so far not once not underestimated but lost screens this week The South-West report shows mixed holds: Fine for Mamma Mia 2 with 925 admissions (last Thursday it were 1.096) and again for Adrift 162 (190), The First Purge even increased with 143 (132). But mediocre for Skyscraper with 88 admissions (last Thursday 212) and even worse for Sicario with 76 (239) and JW 2 with 49 (139, lost many screens which would also explain the bigger drop in the estimates above). The biggest new release, Ant-Man and the Wasp had 825 admissions in the selected theaters (below the number of The First Purge e.g. ), Catch Me! had 174, Papillon 54 and Hotel Artemis 19. → So in both reports Catch Me! is in front of Papillon, The First Purge and Adrift have nice holds but Sicario 2 struggles. Ant-Man and the Wasp is in line with the (not very big) expectations. According to Mark_G from insidekino.de we shouldn't expect big breakouts. He thinks Ant-Man and the Wasp could have around 220k admissions OW (which would at least be a pretty big increase from the last Ant-Man), Papillon and Catch Me! will probably start with under 50k moviegoers. The holdover could lose between 30% (Mamma Mia 2) and 40-50% (the rest). 85% of the federal republic have school holidays. Edited July 26, 2018 by el sid 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 First trend is up, and it looks like a three-way competition for first place at this point: #1 Ant Man 200k / 225k with previews #2 HT3 200k (-44% / -67% if one counts the Mon-Wed numbers as previews) #3 Mamma Mia 2 200k (-42% / -54% with previews) Nothing else above 50k, Tag / Catch Me is on course for 37.5k so far. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Some Thursday actuals (Blickpunkt: Film): The new releases: Ant-Man and the Wasp: 50k/585k US$ (Ant-Man in 2015 had 30k OD) Catch Me!: 6k Papillon: 3k → 17.5k OW predicted in the first trend Ein Lied in Gottes Ohr/Coexister: 1.6k → 15k OW predicted Hotel Artemis: under 1k → 12.5k OW predicted The holdovers: Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 45k (actuals last Thursday 80k) Hotel Transylvania 3: 40k whole day (55k whole day) - actually nice if there weren't our sunny weekends 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 The second trend shows no change at the top and some bigger drops: #1Ant-Man and the Wasp stable with 225k (incl. previews) #2 HT3 200k #3 MM2 also 200k #4 JW2 42.5k #5 Catch Me! 40k - a little improvement at least #6 Skyscraper 35k, a drop of 55% #7 The First Purge 32.5k #8 Adrift 25k ... Papillon 20k - also a bit up 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Now the 3rd trend is up, and the top movies all drop. The only movie to rise a bit is The First Purge: #1 Ant-Man 205k with previews #2 Mamma Mia 2 195k (-43% / -55% with previews) #3 HT3 190k (-47% / -68% counting Mon-Wed as previews) #4 Catch Me 40k #5 JW2 37.5k (-49%) #6 The First Purge 37.5k (-52%) #7 Skyscraper 32.5k (-59%) #8 Adrift 25k 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 2 hours ago, George Parr said: Now the 3rd trend is up, and the top movies all drop. The only movie to rise a bit is The First Purge: #1 Ant-Man 205k with previews #2 Mamma Mia 2 195k (-43% / -55% with previews) #3 HT3 190k (-47% / -68% counting Mon-Wed as previews) #4 Catch Me 40k #5 JW2 37.5k (-49%) #6 The First Purge 37.5k (-52%) #7 Skyscraper 32.5k (-59%) #8 Adrift 25k Wouldn't that mean that MM2 won the weekend and Ant-Man started in third! place (with around 180k). The thunderstorm yesterday around 3 pm helped a little, the temperature in the night was like 14-15 °C outside and not 22-24 °C. But it's predicted to get really hot again (34 °C tomorrow and on Tuesday) Normally three days a year above 30 °C, this week Tuesday to Saturday all above 30 °C and Monday around 30 °C, with tomorrow and Tuesday that are just eight days and just seven days above 30 °C before that.. so just 15 days this year after Tuesday (if today stays below, I really hope it does) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 29, 2018 Author Share Posted July 29, 2018 yep MM2 is the winner on the weekend proper (if estimates are correct) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...