Brainbug Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 6 hours ago, RealLyre said: is CM looking at 20M USD total? That would mean rather short legs. Normally, legs in Germany are quite a bit better than in the US for example. Of course, we have to account for some frontloading since its a Marvel Movie and that franchise has established a big fanbase here as well, but 20M would be on the short side. I do think we can expect 25-30M for CM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 13, 2019 Author Share Posted March 13, 2019 30 minutes ago, terrestrial said: Why? Beside: I am really liking the movie in a big way (I will rewatch it), still I do not think that a lot of people will rewatch it storywise and for whom it might appeal for which reasons. with the 3D share it's got 20mil US$ would be a poor result indeed ... BlackPanther opened to a bit over 400k admissions and made >21mil US$ in the end. Even if we suppose that higher opening --> steeper drops, Captain Marvel should still sail past 25mil US$ total; if it gets roughly the same multiplier 30mil are possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 1 minute ago, IndustriousAngel said: with the 3D share it's got 20mil US$ would be a poor result indeed ... BlackPanther opened to a bit over 400k admissions and made >21mil US$ in the end. Even if we suppose that higher opening --> steeper drops, Captain Marvel should still sail past 25mil US$ total; if it gets roughly the same multiplier 30mil are possible. BP had in my POV another rewatch factor, was probably more appealing for a broader audience, and has introduced a whole new world / culture / Wakanda girls,...., is happening in the todays world,... Audience that likes Sci-Fi,... not all of them like movies happening in the past of the earth even when parts of the movie happen in a high tech envionment And .... As said often, I think CBMs have a way bigger part of tickets bought by rewatchers, but the ticket caused by them is even higher, as those drag additonal friends and family into the cinema, who partly then too reatch, ... continue the circle. Hence why I llok always closley on the rewatch detail, if its about a genre, niche, franchise,... movies with a story usually / in the past not automatically associated to them. BP had also 'cultural' interested audience, and (German) females I know who usually do not watch neither Sci-Fi nor CBMs.... and wont watch CM. And than there are the MCU fans, usually supporting, but being afraid or angry about CM maybe 'stealing' the old Avengers their glory/thunder, who seem not all to want to watch CM at all, watch it only once, or only on disc/digital later on. As I teach media, I have the opportunity to ask different age and gender groups of pupils what they think 😉 Also a few wont go, as they learned e.g. via YT (they do watch there a lot to inform themselves about a lot, where I wished they chose more balanced reporting, bette researched reporting....) how 'bad' the movie is. In the cinemas acc to ppl I know and my own observation were only a few teens or younger. = in the sum why I am thinking rewatch counts might be low. But it is possible WoM counnteracts to some of that and / or females get interested and / or more teens will come than I've mentioned.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 I'd say too that $20M would be rather disappointing as it'd around 1,65M admissions (just 2,6x OW). But $30M seems too much, it would need around 2,5M admissions which I think it won't reach. 1,9M to 2M and therefore $22,5M to $25M seem more realistic right now... I'd like to see it going further tough! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Aristis said: I'd like to see it going further tough! I'd like to make it tons of money. Not only bcs I really like the movie, but bcs the cinemas need the money in a big way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, terrestrial said: I'd like to make it tons of money. Not only bcs I really like the movie, but bcs the cinemas need the money in a big way No worrys, even if CM doesnt make it to 30M, we always have Pikachu to save the box office. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, Brainbug said: No worrys, even if CM doesnt make it to 30M, we always have Pikachu to save the box office. I do no think either of them would 'save' the German cinemas, beside that, they need more constant, more broadly spread income. I am too old for having any input about Pikachu, even my son and nephews seem to be too old for clicking to / knowing its world. I do not watch animated material anyway my brain seems not to like animated. Literally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 Hey guys. Wanna know is SRK really popular with locals because in India, fans and media believe he is but I don't see that reflected in numbers with Dilwale being his biggest grosser other than My Name Is Khan at just €220k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 4 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Hey guys. Wanna know is SRK really popular with locals because in India, fans and media believe he is but I don't see that reflected in numbers with Dilwale being his biggest grosser other than My Name Is Khan at just €220k. Hard to say. He is not unknown here for sure. I can be wrong of course but I think if you would ask the average local in Germany ca. 50% of the women would say they already saw one of his films or at least heard of him. He is probably the most well known and popular star from India here. Maybe more people have seen Irrfan Khan in theaters due to Life of Pi etc. but I don't know if they could allocate a name. But I would say that most people know SRK because his films are regularly broadcasted on TV here (e.g. as a counter program to football matches and my mum likes them ) and not so much because they saw films in the theaters (if it matters wherefrom somebody is popular). OTOH I saw that both Dilwale and My Name is Khan (here I remember reports of the premiere in Germany on several TV-stations) got only around 50 theaters (a middle big start in Germany would be around 350-400 theaters). And Dilwale had no bad average and still it lost almost all screens after one week, no idea why. So it's hard to judge if the distributors wrongly think that his films are too much of a niche or if they really work better on TV... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 5 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Hey guys. Wanna know is SRK really popular with locals because in India, fans and media believe he is but I don't see that reflected in numbers with Dilwale being his biggest grosser other than My Name Is Khan at just €220k. I wouldn't say he is really popular, but he also isn't unpopular, more like an actor you might have heart of but that is it. Also the low gross I guess is because quite some have watched one of his movies on TV, but most wouldn't pay money to see him in cinema. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 Movie Total adm O Weekend Multiplier 2018 TOP 10: Fantastic Beasts 2 3.863M 0.995M 3.88 Junge 3.5M 0.543M 6.45 BR 3.45M 0.398M 8.67 Infinity War 3.4M 1.075M 3.16 Fifty Shades 3 3.007M 0.725M 4.14 Hotel Transylvania 3 2.541M 0.355M 7.16 Jurassic World 2 2.404M 0.574M 4.19 Grinch 2.274M 0.333M 6.83 Deadpool 2 2.242M 0.661M 3.39 Incredibles 2 2.193M 0.423M 5.18 HT 3 started on Monday, the number is just the 4-Day Weekend, Thursday to Sunday 2017 TOP 10: Fack Ju Göhte 3 6.136M 1.726M 3.56 SW - TLJ 5.905M 1.627M 3.63 Despicable Me 3 4.65M 0.851M 5.46 Fifty Shades 2 3.457M 0.847M 4.08 B&tB 3.430M 0.864M 3.97 F&F 8 3.241M 1.145M 2.83 It 3.17M 0.937M 3.38 PotC 5 2.694M 0.577M 4.67 GotG 2 2.516M 0.75M 3.35 Bescheurte Herz 2.138M 0.159M 13.45 The last movie opened over Christmas Weekend (that means dead Sunday) 2016 TOP 10: Solo 3.994M 1.001M 3.99 Finding Dory 3.922M 0.876M 4.48 Pets 3.848M 0.706M 5.45 Zootopia 3.845M 0.69M 5.57 Willkommen 3.839M 0.469M 8.19 Fantastic Beasts 1 3.539M 0.827M 4.28 Ice Age 5 2.925M 0.443M 6.6 The Revenant 2.827M 0.38M 7.44 Deadpool 2.738M 0.714M 3.83 Sing 2.472M 0.385M 6.42 2015 TOP 10: SW - TFA 9.06M 2.139M 4.24 Fack Ju Göhte 2 7.734M 2.115M 3.66 Spectre 7.089M 1.681M 4.22 Minions 6.946M 0.935M 7.43 Fifty Shades 1 4.42M 1.353M 3.27 F&F 7 4.186M 1.334M 3.14 Jurassic World 4.148M 0.903M 4.59 Mockingjay 2 4.07M 1.143M 3.56 Inside Out 3.505M 0.642M 5.46 Er ist wieder da 2.485M 0.36M 6.9 Average Multiplier is (and just for the top 3) 2018: 5.31 (6.33 - two incredibly leggy movies in the top 3) 2017: 4.84 (4.22) 2016: 5.63 (4.64) 2015: 4.65 (4.04) The obvious outliner here is F&f8 with the only multiplier below a 3x and that despite movies opening on Thursday, so they have a four day OW. While in the US&Can (6,4,7,4) so 21 movies missed the 3x that are 52.5% compared ot just 2.5%. 2018 and 2016 are the only years (since at least 1975) without a 4m adm movie, though RO missed by just 5k. Also really interesting is, that 2016 had 5 movies between 3.84 and 4M. And this shows how crazy 2015 was - Mockingjay (#8) would rank #1, #3, #1 - and 2015 had an absolut giant TFA, three big giants #2-4 and four big movies and then just one between 3 and 4 and then the next below 2.5M. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 15, 2019 Author Share Posted March 15, 2019 First estimates for Germany's weekend: #1: CM - 375k admissions (-41%) #2: Asterix - 175k incl. a lot of previews #3: Ostwind4 - 105k (-44%) #4: GreenBook - 100k (-35%) #5: HTTYD3 - 85k (-51%) rather step drops despite perfect movie-going weather; maybe business gets better over the weekend. CM's drop looks really good compared to the others. 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 (edited) And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film, this week the films had no help from school holidays in some states): The new releases: Asterix und das Geheimnis des Zaubertranks/Astérix: Le secret de la potion magique (released in 527 theaters): 7k - I read several reports that Asterix gets no evening shows at some places and in mathäser its last show also starts before 7pm. Seems to be the same thing as it was for Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse or Jungle Book. The scheduler wrongly think these films are only for kids, maybe never read the (comic) books, Idk... Trautmann (255): 6.5k → 70k admissions OW in the first trend, above expectations Rocca verändert die Welt (391): 3k → 60k Misfit (293): 2.750k → 30k OW What Men Want (123): 2.2k → 35k OW Destroyer (110): 1.5k → 15k OW The holdovers: Captain Marvel: 45k/520k US$ (actuals last Thursday 125k) Green Book: 12k (18.5k) Escape Room: 8.5k (12k) no numbers reported for HtTYD3! Yesterday the weather here was mostly bad and today it's even more rainy. Tomorrow should be mixed (grey at the North, sunnier in the South) and for Sunday it's now also predicted to become less sunny than they said during the weekdays. Edited March 15, 2019 by el sid 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 15, 2019 Author Share Posted March 15, 2019 in my theater, the strongest Asterix show is also the latest one (19:00); audience seems (predictably?) on the older side; afternoon shows not good despite rainy weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 This new Asterix movie may not attract a lot of older Asterix fans because its computer-animated. A very weird asthetic (also for me personally), as the cartoon format is way better for Asterix films. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted March 15, 2019 Author Share Posted March 15, 2019 I liekd the last one despite the CGI, better than the real-life adaptions anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: I liekd the last one despite the CGI, better than the real-life adaptions anyway. Oh yeah the live-action films i always try to forget that they exist. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 1 hour ago, el sid said: Captain Marvel: 45k/520k US$ (actuals last Thursday 125k) Green Book: 12k (18.5k) Escape Room: 8.5k (12k) no numbers reported for HtTYD3! last week 2 high population states + Hamburg had school holidays, this week only in the city state Hamburg. Curious to see the weekend drops Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 1 hour ago, el sid said: Captain Marvel: 45k/520k US$ (actuals last Thursday 125k) Again much stronger than the estimates! If I remember correctly those estimates are from cinemas in the south (?) so it may be much stronger in the north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said: I liekd the last one despite the CGI, better than the real-life adaptions anyway. 47 minutes ago, Brainbug said: Oh yeah the live-action films i always try to forget that they exist. I always liked the live-action A&O movies Edited March 15, 2019 by Aristis 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...