RJ 95 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 One of regular member in there predict around 65k admission for Friday, do you guys think that will made 350-400k for this weekend possible ? Also how much increase from Fri-Sat usually for this kind of film ? They also seem predict around 4-5x multiplier for Tenet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 (edited) Probably everybody thought the second trend was already posted by someone else . #1 Tenet - the estimate stays the same: 300k+ #2 I Still Believe 30k (even under normal circumstances this performance would be a success for that kind of movie) #3 Max und die Wilde7 20k #4 Die Boonies - Eine bärenstarke Zeitreise 17.5k #5 Paw Patrol - Mighty Pups 15k #6 Follow Me 15k #7 Meine Freundin Conni - Geheimnis um Kater Mau 15k #8 Scooby! - Voll verwedelt 10k These 65k are a very rough estimate... But I saw that in the South-West-reports Tenet did quite well on Friday compared to e.g. Pirates of the Caribbean 5 (675k 5 day OW) which had 3.907 admissions in the selected theaters vs. 1.807 for Tenet (46%). And the weather is way worse this weekend than it was back then. Edited August 29, 2020 by el sid 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Actuals tomorrow but the 5-day number for Tenet seems between 375k and 380k admissions which is really really good. Plus, there's a general upwards trend, some holdovers even had increases despite the stiff competition! 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Tenet 318.572 792 402 379.461 3.780.830 - 1 2 I Still Believe 33.844 492 69 143.500 1.137.866 +14 3 3 Paw Patrol - Mighty Pups 22.032 449 49 211.823 1.095.796 +44 8 4 Max und die Wilde 7 22.021 606 36 90.111 587.734 +40 4 5 Die Boonies 19.290 423 46 19.332 130.807 - 1 6 No Escape 18.906 254 74 39.710 334.808 +38 2 7 Meine Freundin Conni - Geheimnis um Kater Mau 17.975 491 37 259.914 1.666.978 +54 9 8 Scoob! 11.245 266 42 158.990 1.015.586 +11 8 9 The Secret: Dare to Dream 10.113 324 31 59.840 485.649 -12 4 10 The Wretched 9.185 293 31 49.362 397.837 -15 3 11 Ausgrissn! In der Lederhosn nach Las Vegas 7.566 109 69 31.237 248.711 +12 3 12 Onward 7.474 109 69 372.843 2.782.705 +8 26 13 Mestari Cheng 6.728 183 37 63.201 498.510 +5 5 14 Takeover - Voll vertauscht 5.886 226 26 153.841 1.078.883 +11 9 15 Unhinged 4.903 229 21 125.768 1.002.574 -42 7 16 Nightlife 4.382 135 32 1.348.081 11.494.610 -45 29 17 un divan à Tunis 4.190 106 40 36.234 292.314 +27 5 18 Die Känguru-Chroniken 3.950 124 32 781.831 6.590.396 -7 26 19 Radioactive 3.757 173 22 73.087 581.000 +10 7 20 Schlingensief - In das Schweigen hineinschreien 3.611 62 58 11.356 91.593 +5 2 Heyho, a lifesign from the comatose boxoffice! Really good opening from Tenet, plus increases from many holdovers. Even if we take into account that nasty weather drove people to the movies, that was an ok weekend - about 35% down from the corresponding one last year, but with seating restrictions and overall cautious audiences, I'd say that is better than what we could reasonably expect. Family movies continue to collect their trickling numbers, in many cases for totals that wouldn't seeem half bad in a normal year! Next weekend: Tenet should have a good hold, but there will be some competition for screens from teenie release After We Collided - the first one in this franchise opened nearly as big as Tenet did this weekend, so there's a realistic hope we could see two movies with >200k admissions next weekend! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 3-day Weekend Austria 1. Tenet €409.043/€567.842 (Dunkirk OW €169,086) 2. Follow Me €47,964/106,864 3. I Still Believe €47,634/256,983 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 (edited) It looks like IndustriousAngel is right. According to all forum reports After Truth/After We Collide looks very healthy preview-wise and also today and Tenet is also doing quite fine. E.g. in the South-West-report (which worked good last weekend) Tenet had today 898 admissions in the selected theaters. Last week it were 1.286 (so -30%). Mark_G predicts a decline of (only) 30% too. The weather is said to become mixed over the weekend. Edited September 3, 2020 by el sid 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted September 4, 2020 Author Share Posted September 4, 2020 first estimates from insidekino.de see a tight race for #1; the teenie drama probably in front with 240k for the weekend (290k incl previews/prestart), Tenet #2 with 225k (that would be a 29% drop, ok but I had hoped for someting better) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted September 7, 2020 Share Posted September 7, 2020 (edited) The Monday update: #1 After Truth 290k (with previews). After Passion had 327.294 admissions incl. previews. #2 Tenet 235k (stays #1 moneywise). So far 735k total admissions. #3 I Still Believe 18k #4 Follow Me 17.5k #5 Die Boonies - Eine bärenstarke Zeitreise 17k Edited September 7, 2020 by el sid 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted September 8, 2020 Author Share Posted September 8, 2020 (edited) Germany's Top14 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 After We Collided 237.576 511 465 290.165 2.462.854 - 1 2 Tenet 235.392 795 296 737.482 7.293.868 -26 2 3 I Still Believe 18.017 514 35 173.547 1.377.453 -47 4 4 Follow Me 17.254 273 63 62.475 531.435 -9 3 5 Die Boonies 16.843 473 36 42.030 281.536 -13 2 6 Max und die Wilde 7 15.761 572 28 112.214 731.563 -28 5 7 Meine Freundin Conni 14.182 461 31 279.576 1.795.180 -21 10 8 Scoob! 10.592 268 40 172.657 1.101.246 -6 9 9 After 8.329 114 73 1.027.701 8.369.617 + 74 10 Boże Ciało 7.387 76 97 9.440 75.245 - 1 11 The Secret: Dare to Dream 6.101 282 22 69.953 569.366 -40 5 12 Onward 5.933 166 36 380.575 2.836.153 -21 27 13 The Wretched 5.857 239 25 57.086 463.891 -36 4 14 Mestari Cheng 5.652 200 28 72.201 570.023 -16 6 In the end, it was a very close finish between the teen romance and the SciFi Agent thriller. A 26% drop for Tenet is good but I had hoped for something better; After We Collided otoh surpassed expectations; the PTA is extremely good for Covid19 times - in fact, even under normal September conditions, those 290k admissions to date would be a fine number, only 11% down from the first installment. Next weekend: Two weeks after Warner took the risk with Tenet, Disney follows on a smaller scale with The New Mutants. Given the smaller budget, the risk is actually a lot smaller, but still, a further glimmer of hope for the boxoffice. But given the relatively unknown property and the declining trend of the X-Men movies, we shouldn't expect too much, this week's top 2 will stay on top very safely (Tenet probably with the better hold). I'd consider something like 75k admissions a success. I Don't have Austria's actuals for last week yet but the week before, Tenet was opening substantially higher than in Germany (50k admissions until Sunday, compared to Germany's 380k, that's about 30% higher/capita, usually such productions are more like 10-15% ahead) Edited September 8, 2020 by IndustriousAngel 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 (edited) Film Institute Austria has weekend as FSS, so why Mojo is using TFSS. Edited September 8, 2020 by charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted September 8, 2020 Author Share Posted September 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Film Institute Austria has weekend as FSS, so why Mojo is using TFSS. really no idea - afaik both get their numbers from Rentrak. But I stopped following mojo some years ago, they were'nt really that interested in international numbers, much misinformation, miscalculations or simply mistakes and so on - I wouldn't put it above them to simply have no idea that it's only a 3-day-weekend in Austria compared to Germany's 4-day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: really no idea - afaik both get their numbers from Rentrak. But I stopped following mojo some years ago, they were'nt really that interested in international numbers, much misinformation, miscalculations or simply mistakes and so on - I wouldn't put it above them to simply have no idea that it's only a 3-day-weekend in Austria compared to Germany's 4-day. Though Austria is fairly small, so it doesn't matter that much, but if its 4 days then for a film reporting after 1st weekend Thursday-Sunday will be used, else just normal FSS. For some like France its 5 days. Anyways Germany is $8.6mn so far, with $2.8mn 2nd weekend. Should leg out $17-19mn right? there won't be much of competition I guess. Edited September 8, 2020 by charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted September 8, 2020 Author Share Posted September 8, 2020 18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Anyways Germany is $8.6mn so far, with $2.8mn 2nd weekend. Should leg out $17-19mn right? there won't be much of competition I guess. definitely; with the little competition 15mil € seem very probable, that's about 18mil US$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 (edited) Austria $1,243,729 till Sunday. Roughly 95.2k admits. Edited September 11, 2020 by charlie Jatinder 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted September 9, 2020 Author Share Posted September 9, 2020 9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: Austria $1,243,729 till Sunday. Roughly 92.5k admits. that's really excellent (25% higher than Germany) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 (edited) The first trend: #1 Tenet 150k (-34%)/970k total admissions including Sunday #2 After Truth 125k (-47%)/495k total admissions #3 New Mutants 35k (far under the expectations) ... other new releases: Faking Bullshit 17.5k Love Sarah 7.5k The Photograph 6k Edited September 11, 2020 by el sid 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Austria rank title Lend week Visits weekend Total visits 1 Tenet Warner bros 2 21691 95201 2 After Truth Constantin 1 24876 47992 3 Scooby! Fully refined Warner bros 8th 5807 45868 4 Follow me Poly film 3 4238 18152 5 My friend Conni - the secret of Mau the cat Const / WildB 5 3985 30266 6 Boonies, Die - A powerful journey through time unicorn 2 3387 9882 7 I still believe Const / STCanal 4th 2733 34543 8 Secret, The - Dare to dream Const / WildB 5 2058 33505 9 Max and the Wild 7 Const / Leonine 4th 2090 12315 10 Once upon a time revolutionaries 1 / Movie store 2 1326 7700 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted September 13, 2020 Author Share Posted September 13, 2020 latest estimates from insidekino.de have After in front of Tenet (admission-wise) which is surprising. New Mutants might miss the Top3 with <40k ... that's bad even for Covid19 times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted September 15, 2020 Author Share Posted September 15, 2020 Germany's Top10 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 After We Collided 150.982 581 260 521.091 4.377.583 -36 2 2 Tenet 142.439 799 178 960.794 9.487.114 -39 3 3 BTS: Break the Silence 44.246 225 197 44.246 556.339 - 1 4 New Mutants 37.670 440 86 37.670 332.072 - 1 5 No Escape 12.022 243 49 79.241 677.720 -30 4 6 Die Boonies 10.105 498 20 55.025 366.109 -40 3 7 I Still Believe 8.966 416 22 189.450 1.503.944 -50 5 8 Max und die Wilde 7 8.442 529 16 123.114 802.708 -46 6 9 Meine Freundin Conni - Geheimnis um Kater Mau 7.409 434 17 289.397 1.859.367 -48 11 10 Scoob! 7.028 265 27 181.399 1.156.197 -34 10 Beautiful weather led to steep drops. New Mutants opened way under my (already low) expectations. Overall not a good weekend, even if the Teen drama does way better than could be hoped for. Next weekend: A new Bibi Blocksberg movie - the children's books are well loved and the 2002 adaption went on to >2mil total, so maybe there's a chance for a domestic #1. The Outpost doesn't look too promising, maybe it can beat the New Mutants' numbers. Weather will be mostly sunny, probably the last summery weekend, so overall not a good weekend for the movies. And the Seberg biopic looks interesting, but if it openes inside the Top5 I'd be surprised. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted September 18, 2020 Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 first estimates from insidekino.de for the weekend have Tenet as #1 and After at #2, both witch <100k admissions and drops in the 40-50% range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...