IndustriousAngel Posted April 2, 2022 Author Share Posted April 2, 2022 1 hour ago, el sid said: PS: I overlooked how great the holds are so the weather does help. yep, we might see some increases despite the "big" openers, so overall a nice uptick in admissions! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 The calm before the storm next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, Noctis said: The calm before the storm next week. I hope so, especially for the sake of our theaters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 3, 2022 Author Share Posted April 3, 2022 a lot of changes in the final estimates. sadly most of them in the "wrong" direction ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 4 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: a lot of changes in the final estimates. sadly most of them in the "wrong" direction ... Yep. Big drop for Morbius with only 160K. Sonic(220K) and Batman(105k)estimates go down too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samwise the Brave Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 I could see 770K and 850K with previews for SoD next weekend. The weekdays should be strong too considering the 2 week long break in most federal states. So 300K-350K weekdays might be possible if you're a bit optimistic. Then it could fall off a cliff like NWH but that's normal as we have easter on Sunday so one of the rarer drops of -50% could occur for a weekend of 350K-400K. Basically 1.5M-1.6M after weekend 2. Followed by stable weekday counts for weekdays 2, let's say 225K and a weekend of 275K-325K. 2M-2.15M after weekend #2. And then the break is over and average drops of -35% or so should follow. 2.35M-2.5M weekend 3 2.6M-2.75M 4 2.75-2.9M 5 Mayyybe 3M in the end or 3.25M. The good thing for this film is, its two predecessors were able to surprise even after the weekend already started. At the beginning of each month people were not on board for the high openings they actually got in the end. Even Mark G. expected both films to make around 3M as they made 3.5M and 3.9M in the end 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 4, 2022 Author Share Posted April 4, 2022 actuals tomorrow but most releases a bit up from latest estimates. Austria had a pretty good weekend (after a horrible one), good openers AND every single holdover in the top10 had an increase from last weekend - some family releases more than doubling the numbers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altglascontainer Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 Montags-Trend:Sonic 2 (222,5T), Morbius (167,5T), The Batman (110T), Gangster Gang (102,5T), Die Häschenschule - Der große Eierklau (75T), Uncharted (60T), Jujutusu Kaisen 0 (142,5T, since Tuesday) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 How much did Batman open to in admissions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 I didn't know until MarkG pointed it out that Sonic had FSK12 rating instead of FSK6 like the first one. So that should be a big part of why it dropped so much compared to the first one. And also he expects 2,6M for FB3 at the moment. I hope he's wrong and it'll reach 3M again... 😕 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Noctis said: How much did Batman open to in admissions? 407k (456k including previews) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 221.628 556 399 221.628 1.838.491 - 1 2 Morbius 168.168 544 309 168.168 1.651.180 - 1 3 The Batman 110.733 572 194 1.461.532 15.466.656 -5 5 4 The Bad Boys 103.189 601 172 314.912 2.415.671 +49 3 5 Die Häschenschule 2 75.103 658 114 186.525 1.300.693 +173 3 6 Uncharted 60.115 472 127 1.342.078 12.192.025 +5 7 7 Le Loup et le Lion 44.359 536 83 142.327 1.053.497 +76 3 8 Jujutsu Kaisen 0 42.662 229 186 147.665 2.091.812 - 1 9 Ambulance 37.512 399 94 93.696 913.923 -5 2 10 Wunderschön 35.913 586 61 1.409.737 13.164.353 +21 9 11 Peterchens Mondfahrt 25.939 383 68 29.073 208.667 - 1 12 Jackass Forever 23.812 347 69 224.136 2.023.603 -16 4 13 JGA - Jasmin. Gina. Anna 18.893 426 44 58.502 506.065 +1 2 14 Sing 2 15.245 314 49 1.387.236 10.636.946 +39 11 15 Bergen 14.482 119 122 177.106 1.713.815 -47 4 16 Belfast 12.201 240 51 161.258 1.339.283 +42 6 17 Madres paralelas 11.776 164 72 95.949 840.102 +10 4 18 C'mon C'mon 10.469 108 97 35.248 270.494 +8 2 19 Death on the Nile 8.831 183 48 497.539 4.764.705 -13 8 20 Spider-Man 3 8.222 169 49 4.522.851 45.588.710 -10 16 Nice weekend (about doubling the last one's admissions), cool increases for family releases and most other ones, too! Sonic 2 had an ok opening (though I had hoped for more, still >1mil total should be safe with Easter holidays) while Morbius couldn't profit from the movie-friendly weather, while not a flop, not a hit either. Among holdovers, The Batman couldn't increase, not a good sign but something like 1,7 total is a good goal; Uncharted held a bit better and should reach 1,5mil. Next weekend: One big opener, and that's Fantastic Beasts 3 - the earlier entries in the series both made it past 3,5mil total, so 3mil could be the goal here but that might be tough; I'm hoping for an OW in the 750k region. Some holdovers will get hit very hard while releases for younger children should see little impact; with Easter approaching and weather still on the nastier side of spring, there could indeed be some slight increases once again! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 (edited) The insidekino prediction for FB3 is 675k (4-day) 750k (5-day) 2.6M (total)... Would be around $28.5M (FB1 $36.5M/-22% // FB2 $44.1M/-35%). Still, hopefully i'll do better than that. In other news, doctor strange 2 presales started and seem to look quite good already, from what I gather on insidekino forums. Edited April 7, 2022 by Aristis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 7, 2022 Author Share Posted April 7, 2022 36 minutes ago, Aristis said: The insidekino prediction for FB3 is 675k (4-day) 750k (5-day) I hope so because at my cinema, sales are slower than expected ... still #1 by a good margin but more like a 500k than 750k opening; definitely no rush factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samwise the Brave Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 (edited) Mark predicted 3M and a smaller opening for both with his weekend prediction. They made 500k+ more in the end. If FB3 follows, it could be at 3.1M in the end Edited April 7, 2022 by Samwise the Brave 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadGoose Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 One factor that will also impact box office for FB: TSoD to a degree: Johnny Depp being replaced. I tend to not take people saying they're boycotting something seriously but here, I know that the horde of Deppheads (I'm one too, but I've made my peace with it) saying they're not going to watch the film will not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altglascontainer Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 1. Trend:Fantastic Beasts 3 (750 T), Sonic 2 (120T), Gangster Gang (80T), Morbius (75T), The Batman (72,5T), Die Häschenschule - Der große Eierklau (70T) 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 8, 2022 Author Share Posted April 8, 2022 23 minutes ago, altglascontainer said: 1. Trend:Fantastic Beasts 3 (750 T), Sonic 2 (120T), Gangster Gang (80T), Morbius (75T), The Batman (72,5T), Die Häschenschule - Der große Eierklau (70T) that's a fine opening for FB3, just what I hoped for - but I had hoped for better holds among family releases. Morbius imploding ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 Weather is very shitty so thats good for all movies. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted April 8, 2022 Author Share Posted April 8, 2022 10 hours ago, Brainbug said: Weather is very shitty so thats good for all movies. yep, that's why I think estimates for family holdovers seem a bit low ... Morbius is indeed imploding but Sonic2 and especially Häschenschule are doing great atm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...