IndustriousAngel Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Germany's Top18 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Migration 295.793 661 447 661.572 6.176.988 +102 2 2 Wonka 286.438 749 382 1.457.028 13.669.436 +36 4 3 Aquaman 2 259.271 615 422 647.772 7.641.050 +49 2 4 Wish 197.127 639 308 1.295.009 11.104.016 +67 5 5 Hunger Games Prequel 83.227 430 194 1.411.640 15.751.904 +80 7 6 Girl You Know It's True 77.561 522 149 172.927 1.797.546 +141 2 7 Napoleon 73.664 547 135 977.682 11.107.862 +79 6 8 Perfect Days 41.069 117 351 95.227 914.200 +107 2 9 Saw 10 31.627 323 98 371.706 3.884.733 +32 5 10 791km 26.880 351 77 102.373 967.602 +145 3 11 Complètement cramé 17.576 147 120 39.803 360.317 +132 2 12 Wow! Nachricht aus dem All 14.304 445 32 51.774 398.517 +79 3 13 Vem är du, Mamma Mu? 13.715 388 35 15.837 113.594 - 1 14 Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl 13.554 190 71 390.932 2.741.376 +55 10 15 Joan Baez I Am A Noise 13.088 80 164 13.501 124.211 - 1 16 Checker Tobi 2 13.051 241 54 1.062.381 7.852.863 +101 13 17 The Haunting of the Queen Mary 12.163 179 68 15.755 154.974 - 1 18 Anatomie d'une chute 11.898 137 87 227.895 2.324.598 +151 9 An ok weekend with good increases, the gamut of attractive releases makes up for the fact that there's still no blockbuster in sight. (Wonka might come close to 2,5mil total; however I find it strange that it had one of the lowest increases). Aquaman 2 is recovering from the soft opening; 1mil+ will happen and something like 1,3mil total seem like the goal now. The same goes for Migration which should have another strong week and might come close to 2mil in the end, as should Wish. Farther down the chart, Wim Wenders' Perfect Days had a nice PTA; with good WOM and reviews this might become a leggy run. In Austria, similar results (with less stellar increases thanks to the 3-day vs. 4-day counting, however, Austria's Thursdays get counted in the end, too) Next weekend: Two semiwide openers, both interesting: Waititi's Next Goal Wins and Miyazakis The Boy and The Heron. Top3 will be impossible for both but they seem like possible crowdpleasers which could see a long run. Also opening: The 2nd part of Atatürk 1881-1919; this should have a very strong PTA again. And a bit of a look back on 2023: There were some silver lines on the dark horizon - Barbenheimer seemed to put movie-going back on the chart; domestic crime comedy Rehragout-Rendezvous cleared 1,5mil total in Germany and 300k in Austria, the strongest of the series (no small feat for the 9th installment); but overall, it has been a piss-poor year for Germany's movie theaters, and Austria - while consistently performing stronger - was not much better. While a bit of the decline might be thanks to the writer's strike, there's no doubt that even without the strike, this would have been the worst year in this millenium, Covid-years excluded. Of course, the general state of the economy had an influence; when inflation rates hit households, entertainment is going to suffer, especially if it's expensive entertainment. In this regard, there's still distributors who force theaters into 3D, something I continue to not understand … Here's hoping for an uptick in 2024! Happy New Year everyone! 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It is clear German doesn’t really like Wonka as compared to other European counterparts. Increasing that “little” is meh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 21 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: It is clear German doesn’t really like Wonka as compared to other European counterparts. Increasing that “little” is meh. I think it's doing fine, the possible 2,5mil total is a lot more than I thought it could make. The book is not that well-known in German-speaking countries. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Indeed, I didn't know that Wonka has a book template . The Boy and the Heron gets around 400 copies in Germany, a solid, medium sized number. Mark_G expects around 160k admissions including Sunday (90k true weekend). Next Goal Wins gets 319 copies and Mark_G from insidekino.de predicts 35k admissions including Sunday (25k true weekend). 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 (edited) early estimates for Germany's last holiday weekend: #1: Migration - 300k (+1%, wow, going up) #2: Wonka - 250k (-14%, still looking good for 2,5mil) #3: Aquaman2 - 200k (-23%, good) #4: Wish - 175k (-11%) #5 and best opener: Boy&Heron with 200k incl previews, excellent (should be about 130k for the weekend) #6: HungerPrequel - 70k (-16%) If those estimates come true, fine holds for family releases and everything else is also holding up well; Heron's opening is even better than I expected - a nice overall weekend! Still, compared to the corresponding 2018 weekend with the same weekday constellation, you can't help but be disappointed by the current market ... back then, we had 8 releases >100k admissions, the leader (SW8) at 466k 😭 Edited January 5 by IndustriousAngel 3 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Youngstar Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: early estimates for Germany's last holiday weekend: #1: Migration - 300k (+1%, wow, going up) #2: Wonka - 250k (-14%, still looking good for 2,5mil) #3: Aquaman2 - 200k (-23%, good) #4: Wish - 175k (-11%) #5 and best opener: Boy&Heron with 200k incl previews, excellent (should be about 130k for the weekend) #6: HungerPrequel - 70k (-16%) If those estimates come true, fine holds for family releases and everything else is also holding up well; Heron's opening is even better than I expected - a nice overall weekend! Still, compared to the corresponding 2018 weekend with the same weekday constellation, you can't help but be disappointed by the current market ... back then, we had 8 releases >100k admissions, the leader (SW8) at 466k 😭 I thought Marks comment that the Top 4 movies are doing better than in the USA interesting: Quote Pikanterweise laufen die Top 4-Filme bei uns (im Verhältnis) deutlich besser als in den USA . Wenn das grobe 1:10 Verhältnis der Besucherzahlen gelten würde, dann müsste am Sonntag in den USA Teich bei $135 Mio., Wonka bei $216 Mio., Aquaman bei $112 Mio. und Wish bei $173 Mio. stehen. translation: Ironically, the top 4 films are doing significantly better here (relatively) than in the USA. If the rough 1:10 ratio of admissions were to apply, then on Sunday [...] Migration should be at $135 million, Wonka at $216 million, Aquaman at $112 million and Wish at $173 million. Does anyone know why that is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The very nice second trend from insidekino.de: #1 Migration 325k #2 Wonka 290k #3 Aquaman 2 200k #4 Wish 190k #5 The Boy and the Heron 220k (including previews) #6 Hunger Games 72.5k #7 Napoleon 55k #8 Girl You Know It's True 52.5k #9 Perfect Days 45k #10 Next Goal Wins 50k (including previews) #11 Priscilla 40k #12 Saw X 30k 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 finale estimates a bit lower for Wonka but higher for Aquaman; Boy&Heron is also climbin higher the longer the weekend lasts - a satisfying results. Only Next Goal Wins seems to stay below the radar. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The Monday update from insidekino.de: #1 Migration 305k/1.175M total admissions #2 Wonka 255k/1.887.5M #3 Aquaman 2 217.5k/995k #4 Wish 175k/1.600M #5 The Boy and the Heron 215k #6 Hunger Games 67.5k/1.525M #7 Napoleon 57.5k/1.075M #8 Girl You Know It's True 57.5k/265k #9 Perfect Days 47.5k/170k ... Next Goal Wins 50k Priscilla 40k 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Migration 305.809 681 449 1.178.812 10.799.709 +3 3 2 Wonka 253.918 771 329 1.887.376 17.618.113 -11 5 3 Aquaman 2 216.520 631 343 995.284 11.613.482 -16 3 4 Wish 174.587 628 278 1.601.742 13.634.576 -11 6 5 The Boy and the Heron 140.156 398 352 214.125 2.222.311 - 1 6 The Hunger Games Prequel 67.889 396 171 1.524.112 17.003.349 -18 8 7 Napoleon 57.353 488 118 1.074.982 12.210.905 -22 7 8 Girl You Know It's True 56.666 563 101 263.580 2.718.349 -27 3 9 Perfect Days 46.948 144 326 171.298 1.648.778 +14 3 10 Next Goal Wins 39.807 322 124 50.693 440.146 - 1 11 Priscilla 36.967 169 219 42.609 410.862 - 1 12 Saw 10 30.243 299 101 414.378 4.336.470 -4 6 - MET: Nabucco 23.271 185 126 23.271 702.261 - 1 13 Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl 20.069 187 107 421.247 2.917.936 +48 11 14 Checker Tobi 2 16.861 209 81 1.090.656 8.053.479 +29 14 15 791km 16.274 289 56 133.009 1.260.701 -39 4 16 Anatomie d'une chute 15.754 156 101 252.616 2.580.651 +33 10 17 Joan Baez I Am A Noise 13.842 93 149 39.061 357.447 +6 2 18 Wow! Nachricht aus dem All 13.433 338 40 76.452 583.466 -6 4 19 Atatürk 1881-1919 2 13.230 91 145 13.230 144.788 - 1 20 Complètement cramé! 13.032 138 94 62.430 567.283 -26 3 A pretty good weekend - most releases with good holds or even increases. Among openers, Boy & Heron was stronger than I expected, extremely good number for a Miyazaki movie. Next Goal Wins stayed behind my expectations and barely made the Top10 while Priscilla opened way higher than I expected and came close in admissions despite only having about half the screens of Next Goal … I Was disappointed by the 2nd Atatürk movie; part one had a super PTA, this is an extremely steep drop - must have generated lousy WOM. Holdovers are looking good, Wonka should get to 2,5mil total and Migration and Wish to 2mil. Aquaman 2, while dropping from the about 2mil total of ist predecessor, is still no flop but doing nicely, maybe coming close to 1,5mil total - let's keep in mind that Germany has always been a difficult market for superheroes. The Hunger Games Prequel is also doing better than I expected, and Napoleon has finally reached 1mil. Perfect Days has gone up from the already good OW, might get to 500k total - good for such an arthouse release! In Austria, the weekend was even better, nearly all releases 20-40% ahead of Germany - Wonka and Migration should both reach the Golden Ticket für 300k admissions; even Wish has a small chance to reach this blockbuster status. Next weekend: With holidays over, be ready for steep drops. The only big opener will be The Beekeeper; a six-digit-OW would be nice (but presales are low). Also opening on a samller scale: The Pod Generation; presales even lower. 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Aquaman &The Lost Kingdom (Austria) ~ €1.96M Total (€375K WKend) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Issac Newton said: Aquaman &The Lost Kingdom (Austria) ~ €1.96M Total (€375K WKend) wow, that means it's about 75% ahead of Germany ... while the Austrian market has been stronger throughout 2023 (I'd guess, overall in the 25% range), it's still rare for a Hollywood release to have such different results! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 early weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de: #1: Beekeper - 170k incl previews (better than I thought) #2: Migration - 140k (-54%) #3: Wonka - 110k (-57%) #4: Boy&Heron - 100k (-29%, excellent) #5: Aquaman2 - 85k (-61%) as expected, a bloodbath once holidays are over, but Beekeeper is a positive surprise! And that would be an astonishing hold for Boy & Heron, more like an arthouse release. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The second trend from insidekino.de - some improvements: #1 The Beekeeper 175k #2 Migration 140k #3 Wonka 125k #4 The Boy and the Heron 100k #5 Aquaman 2 92.5k #6 Wish 75k #7 Hunger Games 40k #8 Napoleon 35k #9 Girl You Know It's True 32.5k #10 Perfect Days 30k #11 Priscilla 27.5k 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The final trend from insidekino.de - again many films increased: #1 Migration 165k #2 The Beekeeper 177.5k (with previews) #3 Wonka 145k #4 Aquaman 2 110k #5 The Boy and the Heron 95k #6 Wish 90k #7 Hunger Games 40k #8 Napoleon 35k #9 Perfect Days 35k #10 Girl You Know It's True 32.5k #11 Priscilla 27.5k 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, el sid said: The final trend from insidekino.de - again many films increased: #1 Migration 165k #2 The Beekeeper 177.5k (with previews) #3 Wonka 145k #4 Aquaman 2 110k #5 The Boy and the Heron 95k #6 Wish 90k #7 Hunger Games 40k #8 Napoleon 35k #9 Perfect Days 35k #10 Girl You Know It's True 32.5k #11 Priscilla 27.5k Where do you see Heron going to end?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 hopefully Migration can hit 2m admits. The Boy and The Heron I could see making 800k admits possibly if this week's hold was any indication of interest 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The Monday update from insidekino.de: #1 The Beekeeper 180k (with previews but still probably #1) #2 Migration 165k/1.370M total admissions #3 Wonka 142.5k/2.060M #4 Aquaman 2 107.5k/1.130M #5 The Boy and the Heron 92.5k/347.5k #6 Wish 90k/1.707.5M 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) 23 hours ago, Issac Newton said: Where do you see Heron going to end?? Mark_G from insidekino.de thought last week that it would get ca. 550k total admissions but it had a bit better hold than expected (92.5k vs 84k) so maybe 600k? Edited January 15 by el sid 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, el sid said: Mark_G from insidekino.de thought last week that it would get ca. 550k total admissions but it had a bit better hold than expected (92.5k vs 84k) so maybe 600k? with those kind of holds it might make it well past 600 ... 1mil seem out of reach but say 750k? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...