BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de - as expected:

#1: Wonder - 150k admissions (actual weekend probably closer to 135)

#2: HihmEg - 125k (-15%, great hold, might again reach 1mil total)

#3/4: HotDog / DbH - 105k each (-30% / -20%)

#5: Billboards - 100k (actual weekend about 80k) - nice!

[el sid]

And the Friday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

The new releases (obviously all had a lot of walk ups which is not too surprising with these target groups):

Wonder: 15k/155k US$
Nur Gott kann mich richten: 9.1k/100k US$
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 10.5k/106k US$ – even better!
Padamavati: 5k/83k US$ - playing in only 27 theaters!

The holdovers (not much is reported this week, but both did well):

Hot Dog: 9.3k (actuals last Thursday 12k)
SW 8: 6.6k (actuals last Thursday 9.750)
Darkest Hour: Thursday number not reported but will also have a very nice hold, better said increase, with 70k admissions this weekend according to the first trend (had 59k admissions last weekend/its release weekend).

Edited January 26, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Estimates are going up (in Wonder's case, by 30k ... that's a big difference, let's see but usually such a rise from Fri to Sat is also an indicator for a leggy run) - most other releases a bit up, too. Even StarWars is dropping less than 40%! The only thing missing is a really strong release ...

[George Parr]

3rd trend is up:

 

#1 Wonder 185k

#2 HihmEg 120k

#3 Hot Dog 115k

#4 Three Billboards 105k

#5 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 95k

#6 The Commuter 85k

#7 Jumanji 85k

#8 TLJ 67.5k

#9 Nur Gott kann mich richten 70k

#10 Darkest Hour 55k

 

Wonder up slightly, most of the rest is down, with only #6 and #7 staying flat.

Edited January 28, 2018 by George Parr

[IndustriousAngel]

Monday numbers - Wonder at 200k (incl. previews) - that's up a lot from first estimates, a very good sign, saves the weekend a bit!

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Wonder	177.607	464	383	207.095	1.737.916	-	1
2	Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft	119.105	610	195	312.229	2.063.847	-19	2
3	Hot Dog	109.897	664	166	304.515	2.591.776	-27	2
4	Dieses bescheuerte Herz	97.480	686	142	1.780.197	14.747.571	-26	6
5	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	91.761	128	717	124.366	912.284	-	1
6	Jumanji	87.951	562	156	1.728.836	16.668.658	-22	6
7	The Commuter	86.147	497	173	487.625	4.243.270	-25	3
8	Star Wars 8	70.325	454	155	5.760.972	67.919.598	-36	7
9	The Darkest Hour	56.015	156	359	144.250	1.276.557	-5	2
10	The Greatest Showman	55.226	472	117	555.426	4.771.342	-28	4
11	Downsizing	50.044	296	169	163.059	1.425.129	-37	2
12	Nur Gott kann mich richten	47.451	158	300	66.207	539.076	-	1
13	Ferdinand	45.833	646	71	895.251	6.326.043	-15	7
14	Coco	32.351	528	61	1.226.895	9.377.940	-23	9
15	Insidious 4	30.328	399	76	411.292	3.652.056	-42	4
16	Aus dem Nichts	28.710	400	72	513.779	4.196.939	-30	10
17	Loving Vincent	19.922	201	99	223.546	1.746.912	-13	5
18	Deliha 2	18.854	67	281	49.167	438.199	-22	2
19	Pitch Perfect 3	16.960	309	55	980.411	8.049.252	-47	6
20	The Leisure Seeker	14.935	183	82	142.838		-16	4

 

Solid numbers - the openers were pretty good, and drops not too steep - the only thing missing (once more) are one or two hit releases (to say nothing of blockbusters). Which means that overall business is down >20% compared to last year … The way Wonder developed over the weekend, it should at least reach 1mil total. Three Billboards had an excellent PTA and with the Oscars drawing near should see excellent holds or even increases - 1mil total seems too optimistic but maybe 750k are possible.

Next weekend: No blockbusters in sight, but some interesting releases: Maze Runner 3 (might win the weekend), french comedy wildcard Le Sens de la fête (probably not a big start but with those releases it's about the legs) and of course beloved children's book adaption Die kleine Hexe which should easily collect >1mil admissions total. Other interesting releases: Franco's The Disaster Artist and P.T.Anderson's Phantom Thread with Vicky Krieps as the female lead (best german actress of the last years imho, even if she's not german …).

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

New Releases:

Die kleine Hexe / The Little Witch: ?k (released in 636 theaters)
Maze Runner 3: 16.5k (527) – not too good and the reservations also looked a bit muted today
Den of Thieves / Criminal Squad: 8k (333) - the prediction for the weekend from insidekino.de is only 50-55k but if this Thursday estimate holds that's too low; reservations for tomorrow look good too
Das Leben ist ein Fest / Le Sens de la fête: 3.5k (181)
Phantom Thread: 2.5k (95)
The Disaster Artist: ?k (ca. 50 theaters only today despite the buzz)

Holdovers (please remember that most titles were very underestimated last Thursday):

Wonder: 9.5k (actuals last Thursday 15k)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 9.5k (expands from 128 to nearly 200 theaters this weekend, 10.5k last Thursday) – even if underestimated that's already a nice number
The Commuter: 4.5k
Hot Dog: 4.5k (9.3k)
Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 4.5k
Darkest Hour: 3k
Jumanji: 3k
Nur Gott kann mich richten: 2k (9.1k) – looks low but this film also had a lot of walk ups last week

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: Die kleine Hexe - 325k admissions (contains about 60k previews I think)

#2: Wonder - 175k (flat from last week!)

#3: MazeRunner3 - 175k (good, no drop from 1and 2)

#4: Hilfe, ich habe ... - 126k (+5%)

#5: Three billboards - 90k (flat despite expansion - I expected better)

 

Well, that's much better for "Die kleine Hexe" than I expected; I thought this was good for 1mil total but with this opening, 2mil seem easily possible! Finally a really good number, and one more weekend win for a domestic production. Maybe, if overall business goes down from 2017, we can at least see 2018 as the year of the German film!

[el sid]

The Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt: Film):

New Releases (all new releases start above the expectations ):

Maze Runner 3: 25k
Die kleine Hexe / The Little Witch: 20k – a really good number on a Thursday
Den of Thieves / Criminal Squad: 11k → 85k OW predicted in the first trend
Das Leben ist ein Fest / Le Sens de la fête: 6k → 75k OW
Phantom Thread: 3.6k → 32.5k OW

Holdovers (both increased from last week):

Wonder: 20k (actuals last Thursday 15k)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 11.5k (10.5k)

[George Parr]

2nd trend is up:

 

#1: Die kleine Hexe - 325k

#2: MazeRunner3 - 180k

#3: Wonder - 175k

#4: HihdEg - 125k

#5: Three Billboards - 85k

#6 Criminal Squad 85k

#7 Das Leben ist ein Fest 75k

#8 Hot Dog 70k

#9 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 60k

#10 Jumanji 50k

[IndustriousAngel]

Family releases go down with final estimates but overall still an ok weekend!

Edited February 4, 2018 by IndustriousAngel

[el sid]

The Monday update from insidekino.de:

#1 Die kleine Hexe 262.5k/310k
#2 The Maze Runner 3 185k/190k
#3 Wonder 167.5k/430k
#4 Hilfe 102.5k/435k
#5 Billboards 85k/235k
#6 Den of Thieves 75k/85k
#7 Hot Dog 70k/400k
#8 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 65k/1.875M
#9 Jumanji 62.5k/1.81M
#10 Das Leben ist ein Fest 55k/82.5k
#11 The Commuter 45k/535k
#12 Darkest Hour 45k/210k
#13 Star Wars 8 40k/5.818M
#14 The Greatest Showman 37.5k/610k
#15 Ferdinand 35k/935k
#16 Phantom Thread 32.5k/35k
#17 Coco 25k/1.255M
#18 Nur Gott kann mich richten 25k/105k
#19 Downsizing 25k/200k


 

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Die kleine Hexe	265.117	642	413	313.816	2.128.856	-	1
2	Maze Runner 3	185.496	527	352	190.578	2.098.358	-	1
3	Wonder	169.749	487	349	436.488	3.590.262	-4	2
4	Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft	103.188	640	161	434.309	2.860.766	-13	3
5	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	85.888	196	438	248.923	1.949.308	-6	2
6	Den of Thieves	76.076	333	228	84.614	786.643	-	1
7	Hot Dog	71.656	671	107	400.383	3.386.248	-35	3
8	Dieses bescheuerte Herz	65.071	662	98	1.874.274	15.517.993	-33	7
9	Jumanji	63.240	488	130	1.808.942	17.407.922	-28	7
10	Le Sens de la Fête	54.848	180	305	81.955	639.270	-	1
11	The Commuter	45.939	441	104	555.204	4.829.662	-47	4
12	The Darkest Hour	45.917	185	248	213.412	1.880.011	-18	3
13	Star Wars Ep.8	41.618	327	127	5.821.780	68.630.342	-41	8
14	The Greatest Showmman	38.536	356	108	613.316	5.260.748	-30	5
15	Ferdinand	35.905	568	63	936.568	6.604.014	-22	8
16	Phantom Thread	34.222	94	364	37.482	327.881	-	1
17	Coco	25.640	431	59	1.256.425	9.585.813	-21	10
18	Nur Gott kann mich richten	25.493	161	158	104.894	879.977	-46	2
19	Downsizing	25.398	295	86	201.135	1.761.600	-49	3
20	Insidious 4	17.446	351	50	434.110	3.855.642	-42	5

Finally a good weekend (okay, at least decent, still a bit below the corresponding one last year) - all openers did at least what was expected from them; Die kleine Hexe even more. With an opening that big, the book adaption should easily reach 1,5mil total; depending on WOM 2mil might be possible. Holdovers were mostly good, too - but Star Wars 8 still dropped >40%, 6mil total are impossible by now (upon initial release - might well crawl over that bar with Ep.9 triple features). Anyway, a great year for the German movie so far, four releases in the Top8!

Next weekend: Fifty Shades Of Grey 3 is the big opener; and since it's taking all the big screens, distributors kept everything else away from that weekend. But will the softporn flick really go that high? The franchise showed signs of fatigue, and it's questionable if nr.3 can repeat the >1mil opening weekends of ist predecessors. Family and arthouse stuff should see good holds thanks to little to no new competition.

[IndustriousAngel]

Austria's January numbers are online and it's as feared - the worst Jan ever, more than 10% down from 2017 (which was already the worst one until now ...) - Austria is far worse off than Germany which, while weak, still profits from strong domestic releases - but in Austria, those German movies don't do nearly as well (Die kleine Hexe was only #3 on OW; The run  of "Dieses bescheuerte Herz" is already over). With the Winter Olympics now and the 2018 FIFA WorldCup as competition, and no real blockbusters on the horizon, I'ts pretty guaranteed 2018 will become the worst year ever for Austrian theaters :(((

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de :

#1: 50SoG 3 - 975k admissions (contains the strong Wednesday, WE actual probably around 830k)

#2; Die kleine Hexe - 250k (-6%)

#3: Wonder - 140k (-18%)

#4: Maze3 - 110k (-41%)

#5: Hilfe, ich ... - 100k (-3%)

 

Rather good opening for 50Sog 3 (better than many estimates) and spectacular holds for family releases - yay!

[Brainbug]

Cant say im happy for Fifty Shades (i hate that garbage), but for the cinemas this is really good news

[el sid]

The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

New releases:

Fifty Shades Freed: 135k and nearly 1.6M US$ (released in 725 theaters which is on par with part 1 and 2, some bad and some mediocre reviews; Fifty Shades of Grey saw 1.353.030 admissions OW (4.41M total), Fifty Shades Darker 847.356 admissions OW (3.45M total) – 135k OD is on par with part 2
Wind River: 2.7k (86, good and very good reviews)

The (pretty nice) holdovers:

Die kleine Hexe: 27.1k (actuals last Thursday 20k) – more states with school holidays, still great
Wonder: 17k (20k)
Maze Runner 3: 14k (25k)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 9k (11.5k)

Edited February 9, 2018 by el sid

[el sid]

Because the Friday estimates look nice and the Thursday estimates were pretty reliable for 50 Shades Freed I'll post them:

50 Shades Freed: 265k

Wonder: 30k
Maze Runner 3: 26.5k
Three Billboards: 18k
Den of Thieves: 16k – seems to have a good hold too
Das Leben ist ein Fest: 12.5k
Hot Dog: 10.5k
Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 9.5k
Phantom Thread: 7.5k – also not bad at all

Edited February 9, 2018 by el sid

[George Parr]

2nd trend is up, 50SoG, Wonder and HihmEg are down a bit, Maze Runner is up:

 

#1: 50SoG 3 - 950k

#2; Die kleine Hexe - 250k

#3: Wonder - 130k

#4: Maze Runner- 120k

#5: HihmEg - 85k

#6 Three Billboards 72.5k

#7 Jumanji 52.5k

#8 Criminal Squad 52.5k

#9 Das Leben ist ein Fest 45k

#10 Wind River 42.5k

[George Parr]

3rd trend is up at insidekino, drops all around, only Maze Runner stayed flat. Die kleine Hexe down by 40k from the last trend!

 

#1: 50SoG 3 - 925k

#2; Die kleine Hexe - 210k

#3: Wonder - 125k

#4: Maze Runner- 120k

#5: HihmEg - 75k

#6 Three Billboards 70k

#7 Criminal Squad 50k

#8 Jumanji 45k

#9 Das Leben ist ein Fest 42.5k

#10 Wind River 40k