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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

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7 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

about 25% if true, yep

Was hoping for a even better hold than that, given last Saturday was partly deflated and Monday being a public holiday. If this follow Dune (since both experience the similar 2nd weekend drop), the likely end would be around 2.25m. 

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Thursday numbers:

 

TG:M: 45k (€480k)

DS:MoM: 12k (€120k)

FB3: 4.5k (€45k)

Dog: 3.5k (€30k)

Mia and Me: 3k (€22k)

 

(blickpunkt.film)

 

I could actually see (weather!) Monday being the strongest day.

 

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Was hoping for a even better hold than that, given last Saturday was partly deflated and Monday being a public holiday. If this follow Dune (since both experience the similar 2nd weekend drop), the likely end would be around 2.25m. 

Last week had a public holiday on Thursday and Friday was a "Brückentag" day people often take off too (and apparently really did). And the weather was rather cloudy and rainy, while yesterday and today are really nice in northern Germany.

And I think the influence of CL is overstated, yes without it the OWend probably would have been higher (by like 15-40k so 545-570k) which would be a weekend drop of 30% (slightly better than TLK for example). (Nothing really guarantees a much higher Saturday even without CL considering Thursday was both opening day and a public holiday - a bit higher due to stronger late evenings / night showings).

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Jurassic World Dominion (T-4 from OD so T-5 from TFSS)

 

Wednesday at CS Lübeck:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   5 121 1301 9,30

 

 

 

WTFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   118 721 48429 1,49

 

 

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   89 455 38079

1,19

 

 

 

W at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   29 266 10350 2,57

 

 

TG:M T-4 only TFSS (so one day less away from Thursday):

TG:M: 612k

 

Useless comps for TFSS (counted T-0 Tuesday evening - it was a Wednesday start too

TLK => 391k

 

It feels like it's lacking the drive it needs to post big numbers, thinking it could come in under 450k. Data says not all hope is left though, might actually do well.

Edited by Taruseth
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Weather is amazing currently:

2.nd insidekino trend:

TGM: 375k (-29 % / -39 %)

DS:MOM: 105k (-48 %)

FB3: 40k (-46 %)

Dog: 35k (-40 %)

Mia and Me: 30k (-66 %)

Immehof: 27,5k (-63 %)

Lost city: 25k (-37 %)

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22 hours ago, Taruseth said:

 

 

Jurassic World Dominion (T-4 from OD so T-5 from TFSS)

 

Wednesday at CS Lübeck:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   5 121 1301 9,30

 

 

 

WTFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   118 721 48429 1,49

 

 

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   89 455 38079

1,19

 

 

 

W at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   29 266 10350 2,57

 

 

TG:M T-4 only TFSS (so one day less away from Thursday):

TG:M: 612k

 

Useless comps for TFSS (counted T-0 Tuesday evening - it was a Wednesday start too

TLK => 391k

 

It feels like it's lacking the drive it needs to post big numbers, thinking it could come in under 450k. Data says not all hope is left though, might actually do well.

Jurassic World Dominion (T-3 from OD so T-4 from TFSS)

 

Wednesday at CS Lübeck:

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   5 126 1301 9,68

 

 

 

WTFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   118 825 48429 1,70

 

 

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   89 537 38079

1,41

 

 

 

W at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

   Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold
Total   29 288 10350 2,78

 

Other days: 

T: 115

F: 140

S: 208

S: 74

 

TG:M T-4 only TFSS):

TG:M: 722k.

 

Useless comps for TFSS (counted Wednesday evening):

TLK => 180k

TG:M => 234k

 

It feels like it's lacking the drive it needs to post big numbers, thinking it could come in under 450k. TGM did nicely during the final days, while Dominion doesn't really seem to be picking up an steam.

If we take the 18 % increase for the true weekend (TFSS) and reapply it 4 times we get to it doubling its presales until Wednesday evening increasing the TLK comp to 360k.

Taking a 15% 20% 30% 40% approach gets it to 450k.

Optimistic would be:

20% 30% 35% 45% for 550k.

Spoiler

With final day walk ups of TG:M it would be:

4 times 18 %: 468k

15% 20% 30% 40%: 587k

20% 30% 35% 45%: 715k

 

I am not confident in this movie right now, let's see how its resales perform tomorrow and on Monday.

 

Still thinking it has a solid chance of opening around 500k + 100k OD.

 

 

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Not one cloud in the sky.

3rd insidekino trend:

TGM: 350k (-34 % / -43 %)

DS:MOM: 105k (-48 %)

FB3: 40k (-46 %)

Mia and Me: 37.5k (-58 %)

Paw Patrol: 35k

Dog: 32.5k (-45 %)

Immehof: 30k (-60 % / -64 %)

Lost city: 25k (-37 %)

 

TG:M with a worse drop in Germany than in the US?

Edited by Taruseth
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1 minute ago, Taruseth said:

Not one cloud in the sky.

3rd insidekino trend:

TGM: 350k (-34 % / -43 %)

DS:MOM: 105k (-48 %)

FB3: 40k (-46 %)

Mia and Me: 37.5k (-58 %)

Paw Patrol: 35k

Dog: 32.5k (-45 %)

Immehof: 30k (-60 % / -64 %)

Lost city: 25k (-37 %)

 

Here in Hesse its quite bad weather though. But if the rest of the country is sunny, then yeah, nobodys getting a good hold.

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30 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Here in Hesse its quite bad weather though. But if the rest of the country is sunny, then yeah, nobodys getting a good hold.

It's rainy in the south and west (Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Hesse, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, in the first 3 half of the German population resides).

But the north and large parts of the east are sunny: Lower Saxony, Berlin, Schleswig-Holstein, Hamburg, Bremen, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt.

Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt somewhere in between.

 

Its supposed to get cloudier through out the day though and tomorrow is predicted to be rainy in the north but nicer in the south.

 

 

Regardless compared to the US its not looking good. (We had movies like FB3 dropping 67% in the US but just 38% in Germany or DS dropping 52% in Germany and 67% in the US - ignoring previews they are closer together or the Batman 50% in the US, 27% in Germany).

Drops partly are better in Germany due to previews / Wednesday starts not counted in the weekend drop, but that is the same for all movies.

Times drops in Germany are worse is for example Christmas (TFA dropped worse on its second weekend, but recovered afterwards to end its run with a 4.09 in Germany and a 3.78 in the us (and that despite the weekend being a day longer here (meaning more room in the opening weekend).

 

And next weekend might have even better weather and JWD opening.

 

 

I think 2m remains the target.

 

 

I really hope FB3 somehow makes it way to 3m.

 

And JWD won't hit 3m (unless it gets positive reviews).

 

So that leaves Minions and Avatar 2 and maybe Liebesdings.

 

Just 2 movies above 3m (like 2021, 2020 had understandably none)

2010 had 4, all other years since 2000 had at least 5.

Edited by Taruseth
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It really hurts to see movies breaking out in any country but Germany 😐

 

Bohemian Rhapsody should have been the one but while it did well it just wasn't as huge as in some other countries. Might be the only thing breaking out in Germany is Corona.

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Just now, Aristis said:

It really hurts to see movies breaking out in any country but Germany 😐

 

Bohemian Rhapsody should have been the one but while it did well it just wasn't as huge as in some other countries. Might be the only thing breaking out in Germany is Corona.

 

We as a country are just too lazy.

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48 minutes ago, Aristis said:

It really hurts to see movies breaking out in any country but Germany 😐

 

Bohemian Rhapsody should have been the one but while it did well it just wasn't as huge as in some other countries. Might be the only thing breaking out in Germany is Corona.

At least BR got some super crazy late legs. The movie opened in Nov and we all thought 2m admission is the final but by Christmas the movie is still going strong to 2.5m and raise the hope for 3m but the movie keep going on and on to a near 4m final total. 

 

Now I can only hope for more leggy run for TGM to make up the loss but as a summer movie, the box office is at the mercy of Solar..... 

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7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

At least BR got some super crazy late legs. The movie opened in Nov and we all thought 2m admission is the final but by Christmas the movie is still going strong to 2.5m and raise the hope for 3m but the movie keep going on and on to a near 4m final total. 

 

Now I can only hope for more leggy run for TGM to make up the loss but as a summer movie, the box office is at the mercy of Solar..... 

Yeah, it was a great leggy run but of all the movies releasing in the last couple of years this was the one most probable to explode IMO and I would have loved to see at least 6M (looking at some of our neighbors).

 

My hopes are high for Avatar 2 at least being our next $100M movie... 

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8 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

At least BR got some super crazy late legs. The movie opened in Nov and we all thought 2m admission is the final but by Christmas the movie is still going strong to 2.5m and raise the hope for 3m but the movie keep going on and on to a near 4m final total. 

 

Now I can only hope for more leggy run for TGM to make up the loss but as a summer movie, the box office is at the mercy of Solar..... 

That depends what you mean with leggy.

 

a 4x? that is 75% likely. 5x possible, but very unlikely, 6x not gonna happen.

 

I think Minions and Avatar 2 will be leggy movies.

 

7 hours ago, Aristis said:

Yeah, it was a great leggy run but of all the movies releasing in the last couple of years this was the one most probable to explode IMO and I would have loved to see at least 6M (looking at some of our neighbors).

 

My hopes are high for Avatar 2 at least being our next $100M movie... 

Really? I was shocked at almost 4m, honestly didn't expect that many admissions for that movie.

 

Not just yours, the trailer made me somewhat more confident in it getting a better gross and ticket prices will be high. Problem might be exchange rates. If it's around like 1.15$ in December $100m would mean €87m so maybe 7.25m admissions (should be doable if the visuals are good and corona isn't killing the cinemas (I don't think that will happen)).

If we get a dollar euro-parity by December: It would probably need an additional million, around 8.3m.

Also if (in theory) the ATP of Avatar would be higher by the same factor as Avatar was in 2009, it's ATP would probably be around 14€ with that ATP we would need:

$100m ≈ €87m -> 6.2m

 

What we really need is another 10m admissions movie - the last was - oh wonder - Avatar.

The last decade was only the second without a 10m admissions movie (80s being the other).

And if we add DDR and BRD  the last decade would have been the first without a 10m admissions movie.

Edited by Taruseth
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23 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

That depends what you mean with leggy.

 

a 4x? that is 75% likely. 5x possible, but very unlikely, 6x not gonna happen.

 

 

A leggy run would mean something like at least 4x in Germany. Concern is, is wom if TGM actually good in Germany, and the next week weather. 

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14 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

A leggy run would mean something like at least 4x in Germany. Concern is, is wom if TGM actually good in Germany, and the next week weather. 

 

From 2010 to 2021 65 % of the yearly top 10 got a 4x, or in other words 4x is average for big movies.

FB3 wil probably get exactly a 4x.

Even DS2 will get to a 3.4x.

For TG2 a 4x would mean 2120k, honestly, I am not sold on it hitting that yet - thinking it will crawl past 2m, but won't get any further. 

 

Tomorrow is a small sign of hope, should be an overall good day, but next weekend might get even better weather (and then also in southern Germany), so I am expecting another drop.

 

On 5/22/2022 at 1:13 PM, Taruseth said:

With Previews it should get to 400k. Not yet sold on 400k without.

I am not that certain about good legs - like they won't suck, most movies in Germany get a 3x and a lot get a 4x. Even DS3 should get a 3x from TFSS (needs 1915k for that).

FB3 will end up with a 3.8.

(Morbius got a 2.46x and that is utterly disastrous for Germany).

 

To say anything more I first want to see how it is doing, if there is any uptick visible.

 

So if its good it could do something like 400k (TFSS) and 1600k total (4x - would be slightly above average legs for the general genre - overall the legs would be slightly below average).

 

Multipliers for the yearly top 10s (alway from the actual weekend TFSS) 2010-2021

  Hide contents

Regarding 2020 and 2021:

Some of them had their legs killed by Corona, Kangaroo opened in March 2020 (and dropped 79% on tis second weekend and the weekend after wards pretty much cinemas closed).

Tenet, Dune started on Wednesday

 

Movie

2021 Top 10:

JB: NTTD

SM:NWH

F&F9

Dune

School of Magic Animals

Paw Patrol

Venom II

Kaiserschmarn

House of Gucci

Croods

 

 

2020 TOP 10:

Bad Boys for Life

Tenet

Nightlife

Sonic I

Knives Out

1917

After Truth

Dr. Dolittle

Jim Knopf

Kangaroo Chronicles

 

Total adm

 

6.037M

4.541M

1.968M

1.846M

1.718M

 

1.546M

1.169M

1.145M

1.142M

0.839M

 

 

 

1.820M

1.686M

1.414M

1.231M

1.215M

0.984M

0.949M

0.903M

0.825M

0.815M

 

 

O Weekend

 

1.195M

0.815M

0.525M

0.341M

0.246M

 

0.283M

0.291M

0.220M

0.141M

0.144M

 

 

 

0.439M

0.319M

0.306M

0.363M

0.230M

0.171M

0.238M

0.250M

0.151M

0.321M

 

 

Multiplier

 

5.05

5.57

3.75

5.41

6.98

 

5.46

4.02

5.20

8.10

5.83

 

 

 

4.15

5.29

4.62

3.39

5.28

5.75

3.99

3.61

5.46

2.54

2019 TOP 10:

Frozen II

6.782M

1.430M

4.74

The Lion King

5.652M

0.922M

6.13

Geheimnis

5.321M

0.924M

5.76

TROS

5.249M

1.388M

3.78

Endgame

5.132M

1.672M

3.07

Joker

4.293M

0.841M

5.10

Jumanji II

2.567M

0.383M

6.70

Pets 2

2.516M

0.110M

12.71

HTTYD 3

2.269M

0.616M

3.69

Captain Marvel

2.080M

0.640M

3.25

Endgame, TLK, TROS started on Wednesday

 

2018 TOP 10:

Bohemian Rhapsody

3.966M

0.398M

9.96

Fantastic Beasts 2

3.896M

0.995M

3.92

Jung

3.870M

0.543M

7.13

Infinity War

3.458M

1.075M

3.22

Fifty Shades 3

3.009M

0.725M

4.15

Hotel Transylvania 3

2.558M

0.355M

7.21

Jurassic World 2

2.404M

0.574M

4.19

Grinch

2.287M

0.333M

6.87

Deadpool 2

2.246M

0.661M

3.40

Mamma Mia 2

2.204M

0.343M

6.43

HT 3 started on Monday, the number is just the 4-Day Weekend, Thursday to Sunday

 

2017 TOP 10:

Fack Ju Göhte 3

6.136M

1.726M

3.56

SW - TLJ

5.905M

1.627M

3.63

Despicable Me 3

4.65M

0.851M

5.46

Fifty Shades 2

3.457M

0.847M

4.08

B&tB

3.430M

0.864M

3.97

F&F 8

3.241M

1.145M

2.83

It

3.17M

0.937M

3.38

PotC 5

2.694M

0.577M

4.67

GotG 2

2.516M

0.75M

3.35

Bescheurte Herz

2.138M

0.159M

13.45

The last movie opened over Christmas Weekend (that means dead Sunday)

 

2016 TOP 10:

Rogue One

3.994M

1.001M

3.99

Finding Dory

3.922M

0.876M

4.48

Pets

3.848M

0.706M

5.45

Zootopia

3.845M

0.69M

5.57

Willkommen

3.839M

0.469M

8.19

Fantastic Beasts 1

3.539M

0.827M

4.28

Ice Age 5

2.925M

0.443M

6.6

The Revenant

2.827M

0.38M

7.44

Deadpool

2.738M

0.714M

3.83

Sing

2.472M

0.385M

6.42

 

2015 TOP 10:

SW - TFA

9.06M

2.139M

4.24

Fack Ju Göhte 2

7.734M

2.115M

3.66

Spectre

7.089M

1.681M

4.22

Minions

6.946M

0.935M

7.43

Fifty Shades 1

4.42M

1.353M

3.27

F&F 7

4.186M

1.334M

3.14

Jurassic World

4.148M

0.903M

4.59

Mockingjay 2

4.07M

1.143M

3.56

Inside Out

3.505M

0.642M

5.46

Er ist wieder da

2.485M

0.36M

6.9

 

2014 TOP 10:

Honig im Kopf

7.275M

0.678M

10.73

Hobbit 3

6.066M

1.278M

4.75

Mockingjay 1:

4.008M

1.184M

3.39

Monsieur Claude

3.934M

0.155M

25.38

HTTYD 2

2.735M

0.484M

5.65

Transformers 4

2.508M

0.697M

3.60

Wolf of Wall Street

2.401M

0.512M

4.69

Vaterfreuden

2.368M

0.483M

4.90

Paddington

2.064M

0.278M

7.42

GotG 

1.799M

0.463M

3.89

 

2013 Top 10:

Fack Ju Göhte

7.412M

0.872M

8.5

Hobbit 2

6.098M

1.259M

4.84

Frozen

4.767M

0.572M

8.33

Django Unchained

4.499M

0.750M

6.00

Catching Fire

3.744M

1.079M

3.47

Despicable Me 2

3,668M

0.521M

7.04

Medicus

3.634M

0.714M

5.09

Hangover 3

3.104M

1.273M

2.44

Fast & Furious 6

2.874M

0.802M

3.58

Kokowääh 2

2.749M

0.515M

5.34

 

2012 TOP 10:

Intouchables

9.160M

0.335M

27.34

Skyfall

7.826M

1.908M

4.10

Ice Age 4

6.700M

1.106M

6.06

Hobbit 1

6.689M

1.085M

6.16

Madagascar 3

3.973M

0.822M

4.83

Twilight 5

3.922M

1.267M

3.10

Ted

3.372M

0.710M

4.75

Dark Knight Rises

3.253M

0.857M

3.80

American Pie 4

2.521M

0.677M

3.72

Türkisch für Anfä.

2.393M

0.372M

6.43

 

 

 

2011 TOP 10:

Deathly Hallows 2

6.469M

1.608M

4.02

Pirates 3

4.397M

1.331M

3.30

Kokowääh

4.317M

0.838M

5.15

Hangover 2

4.09M

1.033M

3.96

Twilight 4

3.752M

1.066M

3.52

Puss in Boots

3.195M

0.558M

5.73

The Smurfs

2.722M

0.545M

4.99

Transformers 3

2.574M

0.836M

3.08

Fast & Furious 5

2.461M

0.824M

2.99

The King’s Speech

2.427M

0.214M

11.34

 

2010 TOP 10:

Deathly Hallow 1

5.836M

1.769M

3.30

Rapunzel

3.932M

0.572M

6.87

Twilight 3

3.862M

1.003M

3.85

Inception

3.426M

0.621M

5.52

Alice in Wonderland

2.968M

0.544M

5.46

Sex and the City 2

2.569M

0.596M

4.31

Despicable Me

2.508M

0.437M

5.74

Forever Shrek

2.437M

0.394M

6.19

Kindsköpfe

2.097M

0.549M

3.82

Sherlock Holmes

1.731M

0.416M

4.16

 

 

Explanations:

As totals for the first run aren’t really available I added the open-air numbers for BR and Junge and the double Feature for IW as I think HP has double features in the total too but I don’t know to which extent.

 

Interesting things:

Out of 120! movies only 4  missed a 3x and that were Fast 5 with a 2.99x (0.824M opening and 2.461M total), Fast 8 with a 2.83x (1.145M opening and 3.241M total), Kangaroo due to corona with a 2.54x and Hangover 2 with a 2.44x (1.273M opening and 3.104M total).

We don't talk about Hangover 2 legs.

 

 

 

How often did a movie in the Yearly Top 10 miss a 4x:

2021: 1(only F&F9)

2020: 4

2019: 5

2018: 3

2017:6

2016: 2 (3.83x and 3.99x)

2015: 4

2014: 3

2013: 3

2012: 3

2011: 5

2010: 3

Meaning the big movies tend to have good legs.

Out of a 120 movies 42 movies did (35% - so 65 % get a 4x).

 

Worst Multis (Bottom 10):

Hangover 3: 2.44x

Kangaroo Chronicles: 2.54x (legs absolutely destroyed by Corona - without it it should have comfortable gotten a 5x or so)

Fast 8: 2.83x

Fast 5: 2.99x

 

Endgame: 3.07x

Transformers 3: 3.08x

Twillight 5: 3.10x

Fast 7: 3.14x

Infinty War: 3.22x (Thinking 3.16x without Double Features)

Fifty Shades 1: 3.27x

 

 

Top Multis (Top 10):

Intouchables: 27.34x (biggest movie in the last decade)

Monsieur Claude: 25.38x

Green Book: 13.96x

Bescheurte Herz: 13.45x

Pets 2: 11.48x

The King’s Speech: 11.34x

Honig Im Kopf: 10.73x

Bohemian Rhapsody: 9.96x

Fack Ju Göhte: 8.5x

Frozen: 8.33x

 

Best year for respective place:

#1: 2012 (9.160M)

#2: 2012 (7.826M)

#3: 2015 (7.089M)

#4: 2015 (6.946M)

#5: 2015 (4.420M)

#6: 2015 (4.186M)

#7: 2015 (4.148M)

#8: 2015 (4.070M)

#9: 2015 (3.505M)

#10: 2013 (2.749M)

 

2015 had a lot of strong movies which is reflected in this list, the top 2 for 2015 are only 100k behind the 2012 ones in #1 and #2. #3 and #4 in 2012 are 390k and 250k behind the 2015 ones.

Based on this one can guess the best years are these year:

#1: 2015 (139.2M)

#2: 2012 (135.1M)

#3: 2013 (129.7M)

#4: 2011 (129.6M)

 

How many movies about the respective milestone:

9M (3x Goldene Leinwand):

2021: 0

2020: 0

2019: 0

2018: 0

2017: 0

2016: 0

2015: 1

2014: 0

2013: 0

2012: 1

2011: 0

2010: 0

 

6M (2x Goldene Leinwand):

2021: 1

2020: 0

2019: 1 

2018: 0

2017: 1

2016: 0

2015: 4

2014: 2

2013: 2

2012: 4

2011: 1

2010: 0

 

4M:

2021: 2

2020: 0

2019: 6 

2018: 0

2017: 3

2016: 0 

2015: 8

2014: 3

2013: 4

2012: 4

2011: 4

2010: 1

 

2012 had 4 movies above 6.68M but no movie between that and 4M.

 

3M (Goldene Leinwand):

2021:2

2020: 0

2019: 6

2018: 5

2017: 7

2016: 6

2015: 9

2014: 4

2013: 8

2012: 8

2011: 6

2010: 4

 

 

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54 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Really? I was shocked at almost 4m, honestly didn't expect that many admissions for that movie.

Neither did I think it would be that big before it opened but seeing its totals in countries like the Netherlands or Czech Republic it seems now that it could have done more. 

 

Out of all that movies breaking out anywhere (like BR, Lion King, Joker etc) that one seems like the one to be really big in Germany (if any). 

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