mexico Mexico Box Office | Longlegs on top

[Carlangonz]

On 7/18/2024 at 7:25 PM, Carlangonz said:

DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS (T-7 DAYS)

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Deadpool & Wolverine	12604	20004	63.01%	+4.18%

 

Comps at T-0
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X	10139	16907	59.97%	124.31%	$45.99M
The Flash	5353	12348	43.35%	226%	$36.16M
Guardians 3	6643	12606	52.7%	182.12%	$43.16M

DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS (T-5 DAYS)

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Deadpool & Wolverine	13193	20649	63.89%	+04.67%

 

Comps at T-0
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X	10139	16907	59.97%	130.12%	$48.14M
The Flash	5353	12348	43.35%	226%	$36.16M
Guardians 3	6643	12606	52.7%	182.12%	$43.16M

 

Nothing crazy yet but final push should starting happening this weekend. I'll take data for Thursday on T-3 as well to test the waters on how it's looking the rest of the weekend. 

As for allocation it seems like will be around 4,500 screens; second widest release this year along with Despicable Me 4 and below Inside Out 2.

 

[Purple Minion]

IO2 reached $98M.

 

[Grand Cine]

6 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

IO2 reached $98M.

 

If D&W don't destroy the movie i think he has a good chance to surpass 100M at the end of the month

[Purple Minion]

And $32.1M for DM4, about 570M lc, passing Kongzilla as #3 movie of the year.

 

Edited July 21 by Purple Minion

[Grand Cine]

5 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

And $32.1M for DM4, about 570M lc.

Good hold for DM4 this weekend around 33% drop , probably around 700M lc finish

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:

IO2 reached $98M.

 

On line with expectations, close to $35M weekend. 

Seems like is finally settling down; will finish somewhere between $1.83B-$1.84B. $100M USD/25M admits will take a time.

[Purple Minion]

Twisters had a great 22% drop, as per Deadline.

[Purple Minion]

Latest totals in lc: IO2 - 1,792.5M, DM4 - 572.1M, Twisters - 131.3M.

[Carlangonz]

On 7/21/2024 at 9:30 AM, Purple Minion said:

IO2 reached $98M.

 

On 7/21/2024 at 10:38 AM, Carlangonz said:

On line with expectations, close to $35M weekend. 

Is coming to $1.793B. Needs $37M from a $35M weekend to catch $100M USD with another major opener this weekend.

Mmmh, I know Disney will manage to hold screens for it to lure families and counterprogram Pool but don't know how much they can handle. Until we don't have next weekend results; $100M still looking so close yet so far.

Admissions is now 3rd biggest seller ever above Coco and just behind Endgame and Toy Story 4.

[Purple Minion]

Disney's actual USD total for IO2: $98,057,864.

 

[Carlangonz]

JULY 18-21 WEEKEND.

1. Despicable Me 4 - $85.5M/$572.1M (-29.57%)
2. Twisters - $46.7M/$131.3M (-18.78%)
3. Inside Out 2 - $35.1M/$1792.5M (-30.22%)
4. A Quiet Place: Day One - $17.1M/$230.9M (-25.97%)
5. The Forbidden Play - $12M
6. Fly Me to the Moon - $7.2M/$21.5M (-25.77%)
7. Entra en mi Vida - $5.4M
8. Bad Boys: Ride or Die - $2.5M/$282.6M (-30.56%)
9. Run Rabbit Run - $1.6M
10. Jeanne du Barry - $0.97M/$5.4M (-11.82%)

Great weekend for holdovers and a terrible one for newcomers ahead of another monster of a weekend. Despicable Me 4 is going to take a hard hit this weekend but won't collapse and seems like will go on through the rest of the holidays until late August looking to top high 600s.

Twisters had a tremendous hold as well; if not for Deadpool would be looking to go over $250M. Comparing it a bit to Maverick after Jurassic World; could still recover and be fueled by WOM to top $200M.

Inside Out 2 continues with good legs and after becoming the first $1.7B grosser; will become also the first $1.8B grosser after Tuesday. As mentioned earlier; it's now just matter of time to see it reach $100M USD and 25M admissions.

Next weekend will see a big screen loss for everything from 10th to 5th spots. From there; everything else will remain in just enough screens to counter-program; there are no other major openers this weekend besides Marvel's Deadpool & Wolverine.

[Carlangonz]

On 7/20/2024 at 9:43 AM, Carlangonz said:

DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS (T-5 DAYS)

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Deadpool & Wolverine	13193	20649	63.89%	+04.67%

 

Comps at T-0
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X	10139	16907	59.97%	130.12%	$48.14M
The Flash	5353	12348	43.35%	226%	$36.16M
Guardians 3	6643	12606	52.7%	182.12%	$43.16M

 

DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS (T-2 DAYS)
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Deadpool & Wolverine	14504	20868	69.5%	+9.94%

 

Comps at T-0

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X	10139	16907	59.97%	143.05%	$52.93M
The Flash	5353	12348	43.35%	270.95%	$43.35M
Guardians 3	6643	12606	52.7%	218.34%	$51.75M

 

There's a nice jump ahead of release. Shall get a final and significant push before right before opening and finish over 16k. PLFs and IMAX represent a significant part of sales and will inflate ATP as well since all of them are 3D.

Subtitled shows are lagging quite behind your regular dubbed shows even in areas where sub shows are the norm and are definitely holding back numbers at some locations.

OPENING DAY - THURSDAY 

As for Thursday; numbers are coming in pretty strong as well:
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy
Deadpool & Wolverine	9005	50414	17.86%

 

Full OD (Wed previews + Thursday) is looking like this:
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy
Deadpool & Wolverine	23509	71282	32.98%

Don't think I have pretty good comps for this because: a) Not same level of fan-rush and b) Nothing even comparable to a Rated-C. Only stuff I have for a combined OD at a similar point before release is:

 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X*	8735	63055	13.85%	269.14%	$199.7M
The Flash*	4628	52014	8.9%	507.97%	$213.35M
Freddy's**	10354	19011	54.46%	227.05%	$113.53M

 

* Data from Monday for previews and Tuesday for opening day.
** At the very same point; Monday for both previews and opening day.

At a couple of individual locations; seems like will finish above Love & Thunder but below Multiverse of Madness. Let's see how accelerates on the next couple of days but feels like should go to a $150M opening day with an all-time ATP for a blockbuster.

In all, is having a marvelous cycle; best presales overall for a single title since Multiverse of Madness and may even go for Barbenheimer combined.

Edited July 23 by Carlangonz

[Purple Minion]

IO2 reached $98.6M through Tuesday, as per Disney. ER is like a yo-yo, hopefully it'll fall below 18 again by the weekend.

[Carlangonz]

It'll take a while since I have to compile Thursday info but 10 minutes left to first preview shows and everything saw a massive surge.

[Carlangonz]

On 7/22/2024 at 8:14 PM, Carlangonz said:

DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS (T-2 DAYS)
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth
Deadpool & Wolverine	14504	20868	69.5%	+9.94%

 

Comps at T-0

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X	10139	16907	59.97%	143.05%	$52.93M
The Flash	5353	12348	43.35%	270.95%	$43.35M
Guardians 3	6643	12606	52.7%	218.34%	$51.75M

OPENING DAY - THURSDAY 

As for Thursday; numbers are coming in pretty strong as well:
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy
Deadpool & Wolverine	9005	50414	17.86%

 

Full OD (Wed previews + Thursday) is looking like this:
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy
Deadpool & Wolverine	23509	71282	32.98%

DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - WEDNESDAY NIGHT PREVIEWS (T-0.5 HOURS)
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-2
Deadpool & Wolverine	17995	21120	85.2%	+24.07%

 

Comps at the same point before release:
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-2	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X	10139	16907	59.97%	+55.98%	177.48%	$65.67M
The Flash	5353	12348	43.35%	+30.23%	336.17%	$53.79M
Guardians 3	6643	12606	52.7%	N/A	270.89%	$64.2M

In retrospective; Flash's final hours look even worse than they did; awful numbers. But tremendous final jump for Wade and Logan approaching 90% capacity which could've been if theaters had exchanged some sub shows for dub ones.

At mini-comps for individual locations compared to:
Multiverse of Madness - $72M
Love & Thunder - $49M
Wakanda Forever - $49M
The Way of Water - $49M

With this level of fan rush plus a boost from a high ATP and a lot of spillover going to nearest theaters and smaller chains; I think we're closing to $80M previews or about $4.3M USD setting a new record above Multiverse of Madness' $70M figure back in 2022.

DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE - THURDAY OPENING (T-17 HOURS)

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-3
Deadpool & Wolverine	13232	54110	24.45%	+46.94%

 

Comps at the same point before release

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-3	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X	3639	46967	7.75%	+62.82%	363.62%	$135.63M
The Flash	2489	40141	6.2%	+34.91%	531.62%	$138.22M
Spiderverse	13954	33397	41.78%	+42,43%	94.83%	$37.93M
Barbie	23370	45283	51.61%	+53.49%	56.62%	$60.3M

 

Apples to oranges but added Spiververse and Barbie because they faced capacity restrictions which could be compared to audience limitations for this one that basically cuts off any presence from families and teens; in the case of the latter are a large component of MCU's core viewership. Deadline expressed about this earlier this week:
 

Quote

Notably, on this domestically R-rated movie, the film has scored 18+ ratings in both Mexico and Brazil, which could impact play. The last two DP movies were rated 16+.

OPENING DAY + PREVIEWS

When combining previews with OD; we'd get something like this:
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-3
Deadpool & Wolverine	31227	75230	41.51%	+32.83%

 

Comps at the same point before release:
 

Title	Seats sold	Seats available	Occupancy	Growth from T-3	Comp in %	Comp in lc
Fast X	13778	63874	21.57%	+57.73%	226.64%	$168.17M
The Flash	7842	52489	14.94%	+69.45%	398.2%	$167.24M
Freddy's	12635	37896	33.34%	+22.03%	247.15%	$123.58M

Screens should not be a concern as this aims to be the second widest release this year only behind Inside Out 2 and by far the largest for a C-rating; about 4,600 compared to 2,800 from Logan or 1,800 from John Wick 3 (Chapter 4 was B-15).

I'm going with Barbie comp on Thu and Fast X/Flash for OD + Previews; Thursday should be good enough to replicate Strange's split for OD and pull a $170M opening day.

We'll be on the fence to see how Fri-Sun behaves considering the rating that could impact mostly Sunday. Anyway, with such level of buzz and hype; it should come around a $400M opening weekend; about $21M USD pending on how ER moves after a shaky Wednesday. This would be also over Barbie's July record (TFSS) of $385M

[charlie Jatinder]

80 + 80 + 80 + 100 + 110 = 450+

[Carlangonz]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

80 + 80 + 80 + 100 + 110 = 450+

That's pretty much MOM's path which could be if there's a bigger gain than expected on ATP.

Tough to weight loss by rating; Deadpool isn't particularly a Marvel property that should appeal teens and children like Spidey, Thor or even Strange himself but still does it anyway.

[Carlangonz]

Well that's a bummer; $57M from Wednesday Night Previews, way too contracted and more akin to The Flash (on comps). Weekend shall be on mid 300s

Edited July 25 by Carlangonz

[keysersoze123]

Thor comp said 49m. So it seems in line with atp boost. May be rating limits walkups.

[Carlangonz]

46 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thor comp said 49m. So it seems in line with atp boost. May be rating limits walkups.

For one I overshoot on ATP; while high is not that much compared to recent adult titles like Quiet Place or C-Rated pics like Poor Things. I think part of this is overperformance on 2nd and 3rd tier markets where prices are considerably lower.

Lesson is always compare MCU only to other MCU releases; Strange was too much of an outlier as well but not really sure why.