mexico Mexico Box Office | Inside Out 2 close to $72M; will Day One create much noise?

[Carlangonz]

Seems like Wakanda Forever is on the run for $700M considering there's a holiday tomorrow and no competition for the upcoming weeks. May not beat first Panther in admissions but will pass 10M. 

 

No news regarding Way of Water sales. I'm thinking it challenges Dominion as largest grosser of the year but still uncertain on $1B.

[Purple Minion]

Still waiting for official totals, Wakanda Forever should be very close to the all-time Top 50 in lc.

 

So many re-releases! Barely any dent in the box office...

[Purple Minion]

Well, what do you know, CANACINE published the weekly Top 10 today.

 

Top Movies 2022 (lc)

 

05     589,400,000  Thor: Love and Thunder

06     449,400,000  Black Panther 2: Wakanda Forever

07     441,900,000  Sonic The Hedgehog 2

---

11     290,400,000  Top Gun Maverick

12     288,900,000  Black Adam

13     201,100,000  Bullet Train

 

 

[Purple Minion]

First estimates for Avatar 2 by MxTaquilla @ Twitter:

 

Quote

#AvatarTheWayOfWater OW: 320M lc, Total: 1,050M lc.

 

That would be $16.5M OW and $54.2M total (USD) at today's ER.

 

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Purple Minion

[Carlangonz]

37 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

First estimates for Avatar 2 by MxTaquilla @ Twitter:

 

 

That would be $16.5M OW and $54.2M total (USD) at today's ER.

 

 

Too big of an opening and too short legs. I'm thinking more like $180M 4-Day + Previews and $900M+ full run.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Carlangonz

[hw64]

17 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

First estimates for Avatar 2 by MxTaquilla @ Twitter:

[OW: 320M lc, Total: 1,050M lc.]

That would be $16.5M OW and $54.2M total (USD) at today's ER.

 

I don't want to disrespect the local experts but at current ticket prices, that would only be around 30% more tickets sold than the original Avatar, and less than the likes of The Fate of the Furious and Captain America: Civil War (I know superhero movies are especially popular in Mexico, but come on — Avatar was a top 4 all-time ticket seller in Mexico at the time of its release, and the highest-grossing LC film of all time).

 

I have it significantly higher — my starting point is 1.3b LC, and I think even that's probably a bit conservative.

[charlie Jatinder]

LATAM is usually the area I have no idea or gut feel. Also the only area I am afraid Avatar won't be doing big.

 

I am hoping for something like 18M+ admits in Mexico for 1.4B+ gross.

[Sophia Jane]

Avatar 1 doing great in LA too,so  I don’t afraid Avatar 2 don’t doing well

[Carlangonz]

Buzz is hard to tell on this one. Re-release clearly showed interest but won't be a huge opener and instead rely on legs, akin to Aquaman or The Hobbit saga both of which had over 4x multipliers but of course we still have to see how it is received. I also think this skews older especially with Puss in the Boots looming ahead of Christmas Day. 

 

So I prefer to keep my expectations on line with Titanic full run incl re-issue in admits.

 

 

 

 

[Purple Minion]

Forecasts are conservative because all the 2022 tentpoles underperformed in terms of audience... the market is very picky this year. I still think it will reach 1B lc.

[Carlangonz]

As sales are expected go live on Tuesday, shows for The Way of Water are popping up. Previews starting at 6:00PM on the 14th; an hour earlier than typical previews. 

 

[Purple Minion]

$26.5M latest total for Wakanda Forever. Should pass Black Panther by Sat and jump into the all time Top 40 in lc.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Purple Minion

[Carlangonz]

More on The Way of Water: first weekend shows kicking in way early at 10:00 AM. Only the third title in pandemic times to start this early after No Way Home and Multiverse of Madness. 

 

2D/3D share between shows looks like a close 50/50.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

Looks like Pinocchio made a huge splash at the BO this weekend. Too bad we won't know how much and how much could've done if released wide because of Netflix.

[Purple Minion]

Wakanda Forever reached $29.3M, 565M lc.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Purple Minion

[Purple Minion]

Jesús de Veracruz, Strange World's OW was just $700K, less than 14M lc. Probably Disney's worst opening ever. 

[Purple Minion]

 

[Purple Minion]

All Time Movies, lc

 

31    596,734,707    Maleficent (2014)

32    595,000,000    Thor: Love and Thunder (2022)
32    591,366,759    Iron Man 3 (2013)
34    575,974,938    Avatar (2009)

35    571,700,000    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022)
36    567,772,339    Beauty and the Beast (2017)

[Carlangonz]

Pretty good first day for The Way of Water. Seems on par with Dominion so could blow higher past $25M in previews and $250M full weekend.

[cmbbox2390]

On 11/29/2022 at 2:07 AM, Purple Minion said:

All Time Movies, lc

 

31    596,734,707    Maleficent (2014)

32    595,000,000    Thor: Love and Thunder (2022)
32    591,366,759    Iron Man 3 (2013)
34    575,974,938    Avatar (2009)

35    571,700,000    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022)
36    567,772,339    Beauty and the Beast (2017)

 

On 11/27/2022 at 12:41 PM, Purple Minion said:

Wakanda Forever reached $29.3M, 565M lc.

Where do you think it will end its run?