Inside Out 2 | June 14, 2024 | Pixar does it again!

[PNF2187]

18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Right, but that was b/c it wasn't a kid draw - from Deadline - "67% of the audience between 13-24. 18-24 year olds showed up at a massive 48%"  Aka, its demo was more a horror movie draw than an animated one.  Minions was even more skewed, but that's kinda what it was...it overperformed b/c it was a high school/college hit!

 

I think kids' draws just aren't what they used to be. It's been a hot minute we had an animated movie that actually opened well ($50M+) and predominantly skewed towards families and younger children. Sure we've had big hits, but they've all skewed older: Mario was 62% 18-34/33% 18-24, Spider-Verse was at 61%/40%, and Minions hit 34% with the 13-17 crowd. Even a disaster like Lightyear hit 61% for the 18-34 crowd on opening weekend (although that had its own controversies).

 

Like sure, if a movie is going to open over $100M then there's going to be some level of 4 quadrant appeal, but Frozen 2 opened higher than all of these except for Mario and that film's audience was 70% families. Even the likes of the first Inside Out and Moana had 71% and 72% of their audience be families.

 

I'm sure Inside Out 2, Despicable Me 4, and Moana 2 are going to be big hits, but I think these are going to have to skew a bit older if they really want to blow up (moreso for Inside Out 2 than the other two).

 

 

[AniNate]

I definitely think coming off their worst opening weekend ever last year by admissions, expectations for some kind of Incredibles 2-level breakout should be checked here

 

 

Edited May 16 by AniNate

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

I definitely think coming off their worst opening weekend ever last year by admissions, expectations for some kind of Incredibles 2-level breakout should be checked here

 

 

It all depends on the product. Disney has a lot of products that did not look very good last year. This year might be different. they to seem to have a stronger line up.;

Release movies people want to see, they will come.

And Incredibles 2 was  released pre 202o, before streaming really caugh on. It's a different  world as far as theatrical ticket sales go.

Projections are for Inside Out 2 to open around 75 Million. THat is the new 100 Million.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

I definitely think coming off their worst opening weekend ever last year by admissions, expectations for some kind of Incredibles 2-level breakout should be checked here

 

 

 

Quote

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
Jun 15, 2018	1	$182,687,905		4,410	$41,426	$182,687,905	1

 

I'll bite.  Who has been expecting that level of breakout?

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'll bite.  Who has been expecting that level of breakout?

Keysersoze said he predicted a $150m OW, though he said that before tickets went on sale. I even ventured with $120m OW.

[AniNate]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

I'll bite.  Who has been expecting that level of breakout?

 

Well, I really want to say expectations for any kind of +$100 million opening, but that would be a bit too much of a hot take here and would overshadow the more general point I wanted to make about Pixar's floors not being as high as they used to be.

[dudalb]

7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Keysersoze said he predicted a $150m OW, though he said that before tickets went on sale. I even ventured with $120m OW.

Some people don't get how much streaming has cut down on ticket sales over the past few years. 2018 is like another world as far as box office goes.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Keysersoze said he predicted a $150m OW, though he said that before tickets went on sale. I even ventured with $120m OW.

 

Okay, but would 150m OW be "an Inc 2 level" breakout?  Maybe at the edges, but I think near $30m difference is a bit too much to cross.  Hell, sheer ATP inflation from 2015 takes us close to $120m (115.5m using the-numbers adjustment).

 

Now streaming is far more of a factor now than in 2015, so apples and oranges.  But, I dunno.  Think it has to start reaching 165m+ before I slap an "Inc 2 level breakout" label.

[AniNate]

Mainly I'm just already exasperated by the freakouts in the tracking thread. I want to condition people to be ok with a $90 mil opening and not see it as the death of Pixar.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Mainly I'm just already exasperated by the freakouts in the tracking thread. I want to condition people to be ok with a $90 mil opening and not see it as the death of Pixar.

 

I think there's probably only one poster there who would consider a $90m OW for IO2 to be "the death of Pixar" (even in the hyperbolic sense), and, well... 

 

...

 

I get your irritation, but I don't think it's nearly as prevalent as you might think.  Streaming has already done most of the heavy lifting when it comes to expectations, I think.

 

 

[Porthos]

Anyway, about Happy Meals.  Google was being decidedly unhelpful on this matter (kept getting too many hits about self-conscious adults looking for permission/acceptance for buying happy meals), but doing some cursory glances, while it does seem that 11 or so might be an "expected" cutoff, there were plenty  of teens who said they continued to get happy meals/remembered having them into their mid/late teens.  Some due to not being that hungry, others because they still liked the toys, and others because "fuck you I like it, that's why".

 

In fact, as much as social pressure to not being seen as a small kid might be driving folks not to want happy meals as they become teenagers, I tend to think portion sizes might be even more of a contributor.  

 

Mind, I don't particularly like this sort of anecdotal evidence, but finding hard demographic data about the buying/eating patterns regarding happy meals was pretty non-existent.  Or at least I didn't feel like spending the better part of the day trying to bend Google to my will.

 

Otherwise, we're just down to what parents say here, what folks remembering doing when they were (or in the case of some board members still are) at that age, or other anecdotal evidence like the folks who actually work at fast food joints.

 

In short: Eh.  Not that unbelievable. 

Edited May 16 by Porthos

[AniNate]

I do think anecdotal evidence is enough to excuse a TV commercial that is probably not airing on any channels adults watch

[cannastop]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Anyway, about Happy Meals.  Google was being decidedly unhelpful on this matter (kept getting too many hits about self-conscious adults looking for permission/acceptance for buying happy meals), but doing some cursory glances, while it does seem that 11 or so might be an "expected" cutoff, there were plenty  of teens who said they continued to get happy meals/remembered having them into their mid/late teens.  Some due to not being that hungry, others because they still liked the toys, and others because "fuck you I like it, that's why".

There used to be a thing called "Mighty Kids Meal" which was for older kids than Happy Meals.

 

Dunno what exactly the cutoff for that was.

 

Jesus the early 00s there.

[JimmyB]

Stopped buying my kid Happy Meals when he was 8 but it was because he was eating more...6 piece McNuggets wasnt enough, lol 

[AnthonyJPHer]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

Keysersoze said he predicted a $150m OW, though he said that before tickets went on sale. I even ventured with $120m OW.

it’s too early to tell what the presale are telling us. Tbh, I don’t see it going under 60m so that’s a good sign. And the pace of presale at least indicate there is interest, but families just aren’t going to buy tickets this early out. Heck, I’m going to be seeing it on the Wednesday after opening weekend.

[kayumanggi]

It's good to know that apparantly it turned out great, but this "return to form" narrative should stop. It's as if the pandemic films were terrible. 🙄

[WebSurfer]

10 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

It's good to know that apparantly it turned out great, but this "return to form" narrative should stop. It's as if the pandemic films were terrible. 🙄

Were they saying that with Elemental?

[AniNate]

I would not take colliderfrosty's word as gospel on anything

[WorkingonaName]

You need to rethink your life if you order anything beyond a small at Maccas.

[AniNate]

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