Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I am also quite confident PIB2 would get 2nd weekend higher than OW type of run. 

 

Yea that is expected. Sing jumped 22% over OW with the same calendar configuration in 2016. The Derby average is over $15M and I'm thinking $16M+ 

[Elessar]

57 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

longer time for WOM to kick in for A2 in the American market due to 1) snowstorm and 2) 25-40yo males, 3) critics underselling it, 4) underpeforming opening

 

as I said a few days ago 870 is the new official estimate for A2 domestically. With the the 170m+ opening I was expecting a billie would have be ezpz. Unfornately marketing fell short for A2, should have been able to do more than $135m

 

Only if it increases this weekend and drops like less than 30% next week. Good luck!

Edited December 30, 2022 by Elessar

[kayumanggi]

 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Elessar said:

 

Only if it increases this weekend and drops like -30% next week. Good luck!

 

63 -> 44, yup looks about right

[Dale Cooper]

The thing about IronJimbo's prediction is that, while clearly extremely optimistic, it is more probably than some of the predictions still thrown around in here. For example, I'd think there's clearly a higher probability it hits 870m than finishes at 550m, because it's basically 0% chance for that barring some external factors.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Dale Cooper said:

The thing about IronJimbo's prediction is that, while clearly extremely optimistic, it is more probably than some of the predictions still thrown around in here. For example, I'd think there's clearly a higher probability it hits 870m than finishes at 550m, because it's basically 0% chance for that barring some external factors.

What's important is that Avatar 2 is above no way home in every market, this will stop the universe breaking apart. It's quite important really

Edited December 30, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Ronin46]

Just now, Dale Cooper said:

The thing about IronJimbo's prediction is that, while clearly extremely optimistic, it is more probably than some of the predictions still thrown around in here. For example, I'd think there's clearly a higher probability it hits 870m than finishes at 550m, because it's basically 0% chance for that barring some external factors.

 

1 is at 0.001 and the other 0.0001 so I guess.

[Ronin46]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

What's important is that Avatar 2 is above no way home in ever market, this will stop the universe breaking apart. It's quite important really

 

It would be a miracle if it finishes above TGM domestically. Anyway goodluck.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Ronin46 said:

 

1 is at 0.001 and the other 0.0001 so I guess.

 

Did you make any predictions after opening weekend? I wonder if you had worldwide over Titanic or Domestic even over 600m, probably not if I had to guess. Just keep waiting

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

What's important is that Avatar 2 is above no way home in every market, this will stop the universe breaking apart. It's quite important really

 

It's definitely not finishing above NWH in every market. 

[Alexdube]

21 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Had BPWF been THE Christmas release this year, I wonder if its numbers would have been similar to Ava2 (with the same OW that it got in November).

 

Still predicting that Ava2 will end up around $550m domestic. I think BPWF would have done the same if it were in Ava2's spot.

 

In other words, with the same release date, BPWF would still have the bigger OW, but Ava2 would clearly have a bigger multiplier, both ending up with roughly the same domestic total.

 

550 is not happening. That's barely over R1, A2 is going to fly pass that, It's going to be over 600 easy

 

For 3 straight days now R1 is grossing less and dropping harder than A2. It's a pretty brutal trend. R1 was already showing signs of losing steam, and A2 is going to have January aallll to itself.

[stuart360]

21 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Should hit 1bil international by the end of the 4 day weekend. Possibly even by the end of the 3 day weekend.

 

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by stuart360

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

 

It's definitely not finishing above NWH in every market. 

let me guess... spider-man NHW became highest grossing movie in Uzbekistan in just 5 days, Or maybe Liechtenstein

Edited December 30, 2022 by IronJimbo

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

What's important is that Avatar 2 is above no way home in every market, this will stop the universe breaking apart. It's quite important really

Even if by some miracle you got Eywa to drive the film past NWH domestically this still wouldn't happen when LATAM exists

 

plus a bunch of minor markets and probably japan lol

Edited December 30, 2022 by JustLurking

[XXR vs XXR]

To reach $870M it would have to be +10% better than Avatar after 18 days. That isn't happening. I'd put under $550M as unlikely at this point but it's still far more likely than $870M. 

 

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Did you make any predictions after opening weekend? I wonder if you had worldwide over Titanic or Domestic even over 600m, probably not if I had to guess. Just keep waiting

 

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Did you make any predictions after opening weekend? I wonder if you had worldwide over Titanic or Domestic even over 600m, probably not if I had to guess. Just keep waiting

 

Not really into a slinging match with you. Your tone makes it easy to root against the movie. but I hope it keeps going and has a great run and legs it out to 600 -625M. If it gets to 700+ or even 800 then I will admit I am wrong. If it does not get to 700 then I would assume you will do the same. Right?

[Elessar]

10 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

For example, I'd think there's clearly a higher probability it hits 870m than finishes at 550m

 

I would disagree. Right now, $600m seems the upper range of where it will land. Like i said, unless it does some crazy increase this weekend and drops less than 30% next couple weeks.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Elessar

[kayumanggi]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Should hit 1bil international by the end of the 4 day weekend. Possibly even by the end of the 3 day weekend.

 

Also although its a slim chance i think, there is a chance that A2 could pass TGM by the end of the 4 day weekend.

 

Crazy really.

 

It needs to make $190 M overseas this weekend to do that. It made $176.6 M last weekend.

 

This needs to do like:

 

$60 M, Fri

$70 M, Sat

$60 M, Sun

Edited December 30, 2022 by kayumanggi

[upriser7]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

let me guess... spider-man NHW became highest grossing movie in Uzbekistan in just 5 days, Or maybe Liechtenstein

It's lagging behind NWH significantly in LATAM. It might end up doing 60-70% of what NWH did in major LATAM markets 

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

let me guess... spider-man NHW became highest grossing movie in Uzbekistan in just 5 days, Or maybe Liechtenstein

 

It won't beat NWH in your country, for one  

Won't be it domestically. Won't beat it in Mexico. Won't beat it in Russia. Probably a few other smaller markets as well.