M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[Tokugennumataka]

56 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

So if Monday is effected becaue of the game, could we see something like this for the weekdays -

 

4.5

6.5

5

4.5.

 

I get playing it safe but i'm still going to go for 5mil today.

Wednesday looks off. No way its gonna be 10% higher than Monday. 

[Borobudur]

PIB2 is showing more and more interesting leg. Can the movie get another $10m 3 days and $13m 4 days on MLK weekend?

[stuart360]

10 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Wednesday looks off. No way its gonna be 10% higher than Monday. 

Yeah but XXR is saying Monday will be efected because of the game.

I was thinking 5.5mil for Monday if it had no distractions.

Edited January 9, 2023 by stuart360

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Yeah but XXR is saying Monday will be efected because of the game.

I was thinking 5.5mil for Monday if it had no distractions.

Your expected weekdays are too high to begin with imho. Don't see why jan weekdays for a 3h film would play this strong.

Edited January 9, 2023 by JustLurking

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Your expected weekdays are too high to begin with imho.

Well we will see. I'm still expecting 20mil for the weekdays.

[JustLurking]

39 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Well we will see. I'm still expecting 20mil for the weekdays.

It just seems like your expectations are too high to me. You're basically looking for 110% of NWH's weekdays here when even the weekend was not that much stronger (40% ahead) and length of the film should logically penalise it over the weekdays relative to weekends. I'd take even 15 as a big win here, and anything higher seems pretty massive.

Edited January 9, 2023 by JustLurking

[IronJimbo]

Looking at the days so far it really does seem like A2 performs comparatively better to other films on days where people are not in school/work. Seems like weekends are going to carry this film.

 

I think 4.5m Monday would be great.

 

My current thought is that A2 will now perform like Avatar-lite, trending far closer to Avatar's drops than Star Wars/Marvel movies. I actually think it will land directly around the $750m the first movie made strangely.

Internationally though... skys the limit.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

It just seems like your expectations are too high to me. You're basically looking for 110% of NWH's weekdays here when even the weekend was not that much stronger (70% ahead) and length of the film should logically penalise it over the weekdays relative to weekends. I'd take even 15 as a big win here, and anything higher seems pretty massive.

Well the orig AVATAR did 19mil weekdays for this week, and last week A2's weekdays were considerably better than the first films (ignoring Monday for both as Monday was a holiday for A2).

[IronJimbo]

Just now, stuart360 said:

Well the orig AVATAR did 19mil weekdays for this week, and last week A2's weekdays were considerably better than the first films (ignoring Monday for both as Monday was a holiday for A2).

the american calender people say that last week A2 had better weekdays because some people were still on holidays, no idea how many people were on holiday in 2009 though

[JustLurking]

Just now, stuart360 said:

Well the orig AVATAR did 19mil weekdays for this week, and last week A2's weekdays were considerably better than the first films (ignoring Monday for both as Monday was a holiday for A2).

Last week calendar meant A2 had a lot more people off work than A1. They should be lower this week.

[stuart360]

Ah i get what you're saying about the different calender days.

Were US not back to work on Tuesday?, we were in the UK for most people.

[Tokugennumataka]

3.6

4.8

3.3

3.1 // 14.8 

Looks like a great performance for a 3.5 hr movie for weekdays imo.

Can easily see an 8/14/11/8 case for next weekend with those weekdays. 

[stuart360]

Still say Sunday final number lands at 14mil, isnt even a 4.5mil Monday like a 70% drop?.

Sorry not great with percentages lol.

[IronJimbo]

MON 4.5

TUES 6.2

WED 4.4

THU 4.3

FRI 9.0

SAT 16.0

SUN 13.5

MON 11.7

 

$38.5m 5th weekend - 3 day

$50m 5th weekend - 4 day

 

something like this

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Last week calendar meant A2 had a lot more people off work than A1. They should be lower this week.

Yes, especially the great hold in this past week is not exclusive to A2. All other movies show similar hold, suggest that higher holiday rate this year push the moviegoing. 

 

Also, A2' Sunday week-to-week hold is -43% from 3rd Sunday or 35% if you assume Monday as Sunday. Meanwhile, A1 only drop 9% in 4th Sunday. This means A1 would have way stronger carry over effect to MLK weekend. 

[XXR vs XXR]

M-Th this week will be a good comp for A2 vs A1. I’d like to see at least $17M out of A2.

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

3.6

4.8

3.3

3.1 // 14.8 

Looks like a great performance for a 3.5 hr movie for weekdays imo.

Can easily see an 8/14/11/8 case for next weekend with those weekdays. 

Those numbers are around 1.5mil less per day than theorig film on the same weekdays (ignoring discount Tuesday). Its not going to drop that much from the first film.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Still say Sunday final number lands at 14mil, isnt even a 4.5mil Monday like a 70% drop?.

Sorry not great with percentages lol.

 

Avatar: -68%

No Way Home: -74%

Black Panther: -68%

Rogue One: -73%

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

M-Th this week will be a good comp for A2 vs A1. I’d like to see at least $17M out of A2.

factor in that bigger tuesday nowadays and you'll get that 17m

[XXR vs XXR]

It’s important for everyone to keep in mind when making a prediction for this weekend that it’ll be the start of the NFL playoffs. We’ve got 2 games Saturday and 4 on Sunday. They will each pull at least 25M viewers and potentially upwards of 40M for the prime slots.