THE LITTLE MERMAID | 271.5M overseas | 569.6M worldwide

[1Robert1]

On 7/9/2023 at 7:32 PM, UnapologeticKenny said:

600M is completely out of question at this point, right? 😞

58 mln after 8.3 mln weekend is impossible, it will crawl to 575 mln. 

[Krissykins]

On 7/8/2023 at 11:17 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

Makes these overseas performances very impressive. TLM's worldwide number won't pass any of these.

Very few films released this year will, to be fair. 

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Very few films released this year will, to be fair. 

 

Ah but they will. So one cannot blame covid for when movies fall short. Or poor reviews since Mario defied them. Some movies have what it takes some don't.

Edited July 10, 2023 by Valonqar

[Krissykins]

8 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

Ah but they will. So one cannot blame covid for when movies fall short. Or poor reviews since Mario defied them. Some movies have what it takes some don't.

Which films releasing over the remainder of 2023 will make more than $700m internationally alone, like in the original post?

[Issac Newton]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Which films releasing over the remainder of 2023 will make more than $700m internationally alone, like in the original post?

$700M isn't honestly not as difficult as you are mentioning. If a Chinese Film can raged up to $650M this year (Poor ER) &back in 2021 when DC3 made $700M WW, Hi Mom made $850M &The Battle at Lake Changing made $915M (Chinese Market made up to $699M, $845M &910M respectively)

 

Even for Japanese Film which can rage up $300M alone in Asia. Ofc ER killed and if atleast good could be a easily $500M in the region.

 

Now, thing is that Asian Content doesn't clicks on Anglosphere and likewise Hollywood are losing poles here. - Cross bridge exist like Tom Cruise "Top Gun: Maverick" or Dom's "Fast X" or Chris's "Jurassic World: Dominion" but making a work that has every region acceptance looks difficult. 

 

If these regional differences could be solved without making any political remarks that certain film has been doing well because of regional sentiments or fraud money making process. I think today we would have seen a movie like ”DC3" making $1B or "Hi Mom" at $2B or so Japanese Film would have reached $700M+ &Korean Film Industry would have just reach its ultimate expansion.

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

$700M isn't honestly not as difficult as you are mentioning. If a Chinese Film can raged up to $650M this year (Poor ER) &back in 2021 when DC3 made $700M WW, Hi Mom made $850M &The Battle at Lake Changing made $915M (Chinese Market made up to $699M, $845M &910M respectively)

 

Even for Japanese Film which can rage up $300M alone in Asia. Ofc ER killed and if atleast good could be a easily $500M in the region.

 

Now, thing is that Asian Content doesn't clicks on Anglosphere and likewise Hollywood are losing poles here. - Cross bridge exist like Tom Cruise "Top Gun: Maverick" or Dom's "Fast X" or Chris's "Jurassic World: Dominion" but making a work that has every region acceptance looks difficult. 

 

If these regional differences could be solved without making any political remarks that certain film has been doing well because of regional sentiments or fraud money making process. I think today we would have seen a movie like ”DC3" making $1B or "Hi Mom" at $2B or so Japanese Film would have reached $700M+ &Korean Film Industry would have just reach its ultimate expansion.

Yes I meant of the remaining 2023 releases, are there any that are likely to do $700m internationally alone? 
 

The original post was some of the other live action Disney remakes (that made $1bn worldwide) so was just wondering if anyone thinks any other film this year will do $700m+ internationally only. I don’t think any will, only Mario for 2023.

[Valonqar]

6 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Which films releasing over the remainder of 2023 will make more than $700m internationally alone, like in the original post?

 

Well, TLM obivously wouldn't have come close to that under any circumstances since it cannot crack even 300M. On paper it was a candidate but many of us forgot it was heavily skewing female so no other demo to replenish the viewership once primary target audience was exhausted. same thing though in lesser degree happened dom. Unlike Aladdin which had adventure and male lead(s) and BatB which had a monster and action which are appealing to boys and men, TLM didn't even have the type of the prince that girls and women obsess about (think Edward Cullen, Kylo Ren, Daemon Targaryan, Jaime Lannister). 

 

As for movies with the potential: 

 

Barbie (it may be female skewing like TLM but unlike TLM Barbie is an event)

 

Aquaman 2 (first one made 813M OS alone and the second one kept the lucrative holiday release so drop to 700M is reasonable)

 

Wonka (it's a musical so it could surprise if it gets extremely big in a huge market like lets say Japan)

 

Dead Reconing  (Fallout made 571M so 700M would be 130M more which isn't impossible)

 

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

15 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Well, TLM obivously wouldn't have come close to that under any circumstances since it cannot crack even 300M. On paper it was a candidate but many of us forgot it was heavily skewing female so no other demo to replenish the viewership once primary target audience was exhausted. same thing though in lesser degree happened dom. Unlike Aladdin which had adventure and male lead(s) and BatB which had a monster and action which are appealing to boys and men, TLM didn't even have the type of the prince that girls and women obsess about (think Edward Cullen, Kylo Ren, Daemon Targaryan, Jaime Lannister). 

 

As for movies with the potential: 

 

Barbie (it may be female skewing like TLM but unlike TLM Barbie is an event)

 

Aquaman 2 (first one made 813M OS alone and the second one kept the lucrative holiday release so drop to 700M is reasonable)

 

Wonka (it's a musical so it could surprise if it gets extremely big in a huge market like lets say Japan)

 

Dead Reconing  (Fallout made 571M so 700M would be 130M more which isn't impossible)

 

 

 

 

Ah I see. I don’t see any of those making $700m internationally, but time will tell. 

[Valonqar]

I'm with you but for the sake of speculation cause surprises do happen. But Mario seems locked to win the year on all 3 fronts. 

[Willowra]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Ah I see. I don’t see any of those making $700m internationally, but time will tell. 

MI7 has fair chance, Barbie too has an outside chance.

[kayumanggi]

On 7/8/2023 at 6:10 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

243.7M overseas | 529.3M worldwide

 

253.6M overseas | 544.1M worldwide

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

DOMESTIC (53.1%)
$295,169,006

INTERNATIONAL (46.9%)
$260,304,742

WORLDWIDE
$555,473,748

 

Per B.O. Mojo.

Might end up just slightly above deadline's break-even point ($560 M); should add 4M$ in USA (if it follows Aladdin's path) and I guess 5M$ more Internationally (most of it coming from Japan)?

[1Robert1]

8 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

DOMESTIC (53.1%)
$295,169,006

INTERNATIONAL (46.9%)
$260,304,742

WORLDWIDE
$555,473,748

 

Per B.O. Mojo.

Might end up just slightly above deadline's break-even point ($560 M); should add 4M$ in USA (if it follows Aladdin's path) and I guess 5M$ more Internationally (most of it coming from Japan)?

in usa LM made last week almost half of what Aladdin made, Aladdin made 20 mln more in upcoming weeks, 4 mln more for lm is very conservative bet, disney will definitely push it over 300 mln, and 5 mln internationally after 6.7 mln week is also very conservative. Deadline's predicted 300-350 in usa, so LM finishing so close to this lower number may mean that break-even point is slightly higher than 560. 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

3 hours ago, 1Robert1 said:

in usa LM made last week almost half of what Aladdin made, Aladdin made 20 mln more in upcoming weeks, 4 mln more for lm is very conservative bet, disney will definitely push it over 300 mln, and 5 mln internationally after 6.7 mln week is also very conservative. Deadline's predicted 300-350 in usa, so LM finishing so close to this lower number may mean that break-even point is slightly higher than 560. 

I'm not comparing day to day but rather similiar incomes/theatres average

Aladdin at Week 11 (days 74-78):

Aug 5	Monday	7	$360,179	-43.9%	-21%	1,370	$262	$350,837,256	74
Aug 6	Tuesday	7	$473,730	+31.5%	-37.2%	1,370	$345	$351,310,986	75
Aug 7	Wednesday	6	$363,795	-23.2%	-29%	1,370	$265	$351,674,781	76
Aug 8	Thursday	7	$280,486	-22.9%	-37.5%	1,370	$204	$351,955,267	77
Aug 9	Friday	15	$227,660	-18.8%	-62.9%	615	$370	$352,182,927	78

 

Little Mermaid at current week (days 53-55)

 

Jul17	Monday	10	-...$348,879	-56.9%	-45.1%	1.6155	..$216	..............$294,314,872	.53
Jul 18	Tuesday	10	$480,649	+37.8%	-27%	1,615	$297	$294,795,521	54
Jul 19	Wednesday	9	$373,485	-22.3%	-28%	1,615	$231	$295,169,006	55

 

Little mermaid will also drop to about 630 theatres on friday.

Alddin ended up with 355 M, so that's why I say that TLM should add about 4 M if it follows the same path.

 

As for international, I have no idea... I guess Barbie will damage it this weekend, but I think it really depends on how it plays in Japan from here on.

[1Robert1]

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/08/14/back-to-school-dates-u-s/ft_19-08-09_schoolstartdates_1_2/

sorry but your comparison doesnt have sense cause we would have to compare the days when the children were at school(Aladdin case) with the days when the children were not at school(little mermaid).

[kayumanggi]

On 7/13/2023 at 3:37 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

253.6M overseas | 544.1M worldwide

 

260.3M overseas | 555.7M worldwide

[MG10]

A 560M breakeven point is so absurd it's almost insulting, 625M should be the absolute minimum and it's already being generous... 

Edited July 22, 2023 by MG10

[1Robert1]

2 hours ago, MG10 said:

A 560M breakeven point is so absurd it's almost insulting, 625M should be the absolute minimum and it's already being generous... 

usually movie needs 2.5x, so you're right about it, but LM isn't typical movie it will make more money in usa than in other countries, so i think something like 575 could give a minimal profit

[Spidey Freak]

LMAO @ people who raged for years and years against TLM only for it to make a profit. Add in merchandising, VOD, OTT rights, spin-offs etc. etc. Hariel will keep bringing in the cash for Disney.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

On 7/22/2023 at 4:20 PM, Spidey Freak said:

LMAO @ people who raged for years and years against TLM only for it to make a profit. Add in merchandising, VOD, OTT rights, spin-offs etc. etc. Hariel will keep bringing in the cash for Disney.

Deadline's $560M break-even already includes everything listed except for spin-offs and non-promotional merchandising.

Anyway DOM it fell an estimated 71 Per cent this weekend to 687K income, so it turns out my prediction was even generous @1Robert1 ... it might not add 4M after all, but rather something like 2-3, thus ending in the 298-299 range.

 

Internationally there's no update yet, but looking at the datas from the main countries it fell even harder. Might barely go over 560 M but could also miss it just by a hair, from the way things are going.