July 5 & 6 Numbers Thread

[ZeroHour]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

To be fair, Flash is going to make considerably less than all the films you just mentioned. I'd venture to say if Flash matches Quantumania's WW number of 476M, people wouldn't be quite as hard on it. What's Flash going to finish with WW? 275M~?

If Flash made Quantumania money, people would be falling all over themselves to tell us what a big hit it was. 

[Valonqar]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

To be fair, Flash is going to make considerably less than all the films you just mentioned. I'd venture to say if Flash matches Quantumania's WW number of 476M, people wouldn't be quite as hard on it. What's Flash going to finish with WW? 275M~?

 

Flash is a mega bomb but if it was Disney you know that there would be some kind of positive spin instead of laugh it up fuzzball 24-7. #1 bestselling doll on Amazon! Take that Barbie! Amazing holds in Turkmenistan! Won't lose 500M but only 475M! You know the drill. It's always like that for Disney properties. 

[MovieMan89]

I am not getting dragged back into this Elemental nonsense, except to briefly say that whatever legs end up… unless it’s something utterly spectacular like Puss, it IS in fact still a bomb for Disney. There is a pretty weird spin some are making now that somehow these legs after such a disaster opening mean it’s a win. Puss 2 actually did become a win bc WOM was so good it carried it well past the break even point at the box office even when that seemed impossible. The benefit of a truly terrible OW with phenomenal WOM, as I’ve argued. Elemental needs like a solid 450 WW before we start talking about if they avoided bomb territory, and prob a solid 175 of that needs to be from DOM. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Flash is a mega bomb but if it was Disney you know that there would be some kind of positive spin instead of laugh it up fuzzball 24-7. #1 bestselling doll on Amazon! Take that Barbie! Amazing holds in Turkmenistan! Won't lose 500M but only 475M! You know the drill. It's always like that for Disney properties. 

I... Don't think so. Doesn't help that WB so far as supers go had Shazam 2 and Black Adam before it. And, actually, people have turned face a bit on Black Adam considering it much better than Flash and Shazam and it did 393M WW.

[Mr Terrific]

A poster suggested he has to protect his kids from Disney corrupting. 
That’s political and irrational. Not box office. 
Disney does good and bad things that can be discussed. But I appreciate moderation on people needing to police people offering reasonable takes on Elemental. There’s disagreement and there’s weird intensity. 

[MovieMan89]

Also, I will say I was wrong about Elemental not having incredible WOM if it manages to hit that 175-200/450-500 range. 

[Speedorito]

10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Flash is a mega bomb but if it was Disney you know that there would be some kind of positive spin instead of laugh it up fuzzball 24-7. #1 bestselling doll on Amazon! Take that Barbie! Amazing holds in Turkmenistan! Won't lose 500M but only 475M! You know the drill. It's always like that for Disney properties. 

No one’s denying that movies Disney movies like Indy are bombs. But commenting that certain movies are holding well and outdoing low expectations is just normal box office discussion. And commenting about a movie that had an extreme amount of “hype” bombing is normal too.

 

As for the whole pro-Disney/anti-Disney narrative…well, that’s what happens when a cuckoo governor decides to make a company his target because of their lukewarm support of a minority group. Some people politicize discussions and it’s very obvious when people are arguing about the box office in bad faith. Which is why mods should step in sometimes and at least divert conversations to more appropriate threads.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Speedorito

[YM!]

Tbh in the cases of Indy and Quantumania, the two are much worse disappointments than Mermaid and Elemental because the former will likely be the lowest grossest of all of them and has an absurdly high budget, and the latter is more salt in the wound to Marvel’s audience reception problems that Guardians alone can’t solve. Yes, just doubling the budget for both Mermaid and Elemental is the best of a bad scenario and still awful even if they do make it up in ancillaries but at least those two were liked by the general audiences and the latter can help build back theatrical goodwill to both of the animation brands.

 

It is funny that we can defend Transformers or Fast X just barely doubling it’s budget yet Mermaid and Elemental are just bridges too far.

Edited July 7, 2023 by YM!

[Eric Prime]

44 minutes ago, Kon said:

I was curious about that part. I don't hate this place at all, but what other forums are to talk about box office.

Well there is r/boxoffice and World of KJ. But also every single movie forum I can think of has a box office thread in some capacity with people knowledgeable about the box office. There's also specialty forums dedicated to certain genres and franchises if you're passionate about one type of movie.

 

Plus you can go on social media sites like Twitter, Threads, Facebook, etc. and find like-minded people there. And if all else fails, and nothing satisfies you, you can just make your own website where you are in control. If anything, there's more avenues of discussion than ever before.

 

30 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Toxic is anything too critical of Disney movies. We can crack billion unconstructive jokes about The Flash bombing cause it's WB aka the currently approved punching bag but dare not suggest in well-argumented constructive manner that Elemental is a bomb whose legs are not impressive in the context of low opening. There's a very clear pro-Disney bias. Very clear. Other studios are fair game but this one always gets "moderation: discussion is getting toxic/you are concerned troll" kind of debate ender. Even though reputable trades like Variety don't sugarcoat that Elemental, TLM, Indiana Jones, Qunatumania are bombs/disappointments suggesting the studio has lost its Midas touch to some degree.  And if you want to play politics, you can't get more liberal than Variety so "boo alt right is vilifying Disney" argument doesn't stand. Industry has noticed that the studio is making wrong moves and talks about it so why can't we? 

This is blatantly untrue. We are more than fine with people dogging on all the Disney movies listed. People have disagreed with certain sentiments, but it's not like people aren't allowed to think differently. Last weekend was filled to the brim with people dogging on Indy and trying to argue if that movie or The Flash was the bigger bomb. The only times we may stop something is if something goes too far. If we are regurgitating arguments again and again, if somebody insults another person, etc.

 

The only reason it may seem we are more protective of Disney movies is because people love to regurgitate the same arguments, throw insults towards others with regards to Disney movies, or simply throw out insipid and idiotic hyperbole around these movies way more compared to the other studios. I'm sure you will disagree and think we give Disney too many free passes, but you are simply not paying attention. And if you think things aren't fair for whatever reason...well, you don't have to post here. And I laid out every example of places to go, so there's no reason to hang out in a place you don't like. Sorry!

[Valonqar]

None of these movies (TLM, Elemental) is going to set the trend for the industry cause they underperformed and performance is all that matters. Why would anyone follow Elemental model when real undisputed successes AtSV and Mario are right there to show the animation industry how it's done? Everyone's reign comes to an end and Pixar's came to an end for different studios are now more in touch with what audiences like. AtSV and Mario had OW - the most coveted thing for any studio due to the biggest % that studio keeps for the first 10 days domestically - and legs. So that's that. 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Valonqar

[JohnnyGossamer]

20 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

A poster suggested he has to protect his kids from Disney corrupting. 
That’s political and irrational. Not box office. 
Disney does good and bad things that can be discussed. But I appreciate moderation on people needing to police people offering reasonable takes on Elemental. There’s disagreement and there’s weird intensity. 

I would say parents are changing now, we had 2 generations of latch key kids were no one guided us but screens and pop culture and many of us aren't better off for it. I see the sentiment a lot of, well I was allowed to do this and it didn't hurt me while the person has not met any life achievements...

 

This comment was the gem. Essentially writes off 2 generations blames the screens them kids be watching. Sounds like Screenslaver from Inredibles.

 

 

[ZeroHour]

I’m pretty sure studios already realized the quickest path to success was IP driven blockbusters before Mario or another successful Spiderman movie came along. 

[YM!]

Just now, ZeroHour said:

I’m pretty sure studios already realized the quickest path to success was IP driven blockbusters before Mario or another successful Spiderman movie came along. 

No way, you don’t say.

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

None of these movies (TLM, Elemental) is going to set the trend for the industry cause they underperformed and performance is all that matters. Why would anyone follow Elemental model when real undisputed successes AtSV and Mario are right there to show the animation industry how it's done? Everyone's reign comes to an end and Pixar's came to an end for different studios are now more in touch with what audiences like. AtSV and Mario had OW - the most coveted thing for any studio due to the biggest % that studio keeps for the first 10 days domestically - and legs. So that's that. 

I'd like to see all studios releasing animated features have some successful originals too though. I don't care if it's Disney or Sony or Illumination or DreamWorks or Laika (are they still a thing?)... AtSV and SMBM are huge, huge successes. They're also both based on huge, huge IPs. I don't mean they weren't well loved when I say that I just mean I hope there's still space for original animated features to do well enough to stay a thing.

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I'd like to see all studios releasing animated features have some successful originals too though. I don't care if it's Disney or Sony or Illumination or DreamWorks or Laika (are they still a thing?)... AtSV and SMBM are huge, huge successes. They're also both based on huge, huge IPs. I don't mean they weren't well loved when I say that I just mean I hope there's still space for original animated features to do well enough to stay a thing.

 

There's always going to be place for original animated movies just that some didn't catch on. As for huge IPs, AtSV actually has uphill battle OS cause OS has live action SM habit so animated version is still just a side rather than an event itself. But the movie is reasonably budgeted at 100M while looking like 500M so it's a massive return on investment (700M WW)

Edited July 7, 2023 by Valonqar

[rebelscum86]

47 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Toxic is anything too critical of Disney movies. We can crack billion unconstructive jokes about The Flash bombing cause it's WB aka the currently approved punching bag but dare not suggest in well-argumented constructive manner that Elemental is a bomb whose legs are not impressive in the context of low opening. There's a very clear pro-Disney bias. Very clear. Other studios are fair game but this one always gets "moderation: discussion is getting toxic/you are concerned troll" kind of debate ender. Even though reputable trades like Variety don't sugarcoat that Elemental, TLM, Indiana Jones, Qunatumania are bombs/disappointments suggesting the studio has lost its Midas touch to some degree.  And if you want to play politics, you can't get more liberal than Variety so "boo alt right is vilifying Disney" argument doesn't stand. Industry has noticed that the studio is making wrong moves and talks about it so why can't we? 

 

This is the only obvious rule I have learned of this board. Everyone who just posted against me was personal, rude, and mean spirited vs. my own thoughts and reviews of movies that targeted no one, so there do not seem to be rules against bad decorum.

 

Someone is always going to love a movie everyone else wants to make fun of and someone is always going to loathe a movie everyone else wants to praise, and as long as you can do that politely, you are being a fine person acting in "good" faith.

Sticking your fingers in your ears and sayin there are criticisms I don't want to hear, you have to like this movie, this studio, and can't dislike subversion or deconstruction to post here is in fact toxic and bad faith. I don't know anyone else's mind and never purported to by saying this is exactly why this movie lost all $200m of those dollars. I can only say this is why this film didn't get my families money and some people I know agree with me so this issue is out there.

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

Sticking your fingers in your ears and sayin there are criticisms I don't want to hear, you have to like this movie, this studio, and can't dislike subversion or deconstruction to post here is in fact toxic and bad faith. I don't know anyone else's mind and never purported to by saying this is exactly why this movie lost all $200m of those dollars. I can only say this is why this film didn't get my families money and some people I know agree with me so this issue is out there.

 

or like our gracious mod suggested go somewhere else, leave the forum, don't post here. 🤷‍♂️

 

They can't gaslight Variety and other big trades who will continue pointing out that movies whose disappointing runs are getting daily positive spins here are in fact massively disappointing for their studios. 

[baumer]

56 minutes ago, Eric Bunny said:

Well there is r/boxoffice and World of KJ. But also every single movie forum I can think of has a box office thread in some capacity with people knowledgeable about the box office. There's also specialty forums dedicated to certain genres and franchises if you're passionate about one type of movie.

 

Plus you can go on social media sites like Twitter, Threads, Facebook, etc. and find like-minded people there. And if all else fails, and nothing satisfies you, you can just make your own website where you are in control. If anything, there's more avenues of discussion than ever before.

 

This is blatantly untrue. We are more than fine with people dogging on all the Disney movies listed. People have disagreed with certain sentiments, but it's not like people aren't allowed to think differently. Last weekend was filled to the brim with people dogging on Indy and trying to argue if that movie or The Flash was the bigger bomb. The only times we may stop something is if something goes too far. If we are regurgitating arguments again and again, if somebody insults another person, etc.

 

The only reason it may seem we are more protective of Disney movies is because people love to regurgitate the same arguments, throw insults towards others with regards to Disney movies, or simply throw out insipid and idiotic hyperbole around these movies way more compared to the other studios. I'm sure you will disagree and think we give Disney too many free passes, but you are simply not paying attention. And if you think things aren't fair for whatever reason...well, you don't have to post here. And I laid out every example of places to go, so there's no reason to hang out in a place you don't like. Sorry!

 

Edit

 

Forget it. There's no point in keeping this going.