Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

[MysteryMovieMogul]

What will it mean, if anything, if Migration underperforms?

 

I mean, The Super Mario Bros. Movie made over $1 Billion, but Elemental barely broke even and Wish may not break even (EDIT: Oh yeah, and the failed Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken). That said, Mario is one of the biggest franchises in video game history.

 

Migration is yet another original animated feature, and it's releasing over Christmas. If it underperforms, even with all the recent cross-promotion (Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, Jersey Mikes, etc.), what does that mean going forward?

Edited November 28, 2023 by MysteryMovieMogul

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

What will it mean, if anything, if Migration underperforms?

 

I mean, The Super Mario Bros. Movie made over $1 Billion, but Elemental barely broke even and Wish may not break even (EDIT: Oh yeah, and the failed Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken). That said, Mario is one of the biggest franchises in video game history.

 

Migration is yet another original animated feature, and it's releasing over Christmas. If it underperforms, even with all the recent cross-promotion (Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, Jersey Mikes, etc.), what does that mean going forward?

It will just further go to show much of a sink or swim environment it's become at the multiplex circa 2023 tbh. 

[Shawn Robbins]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Mine's gonna be a finish between high teens and low 20s...Shawn's is above that, but he hasn't done his weekend pinpoint yet...

 

Edit to Add: As for why, I see it as very walkup and very GA unfriendly.  Sky high ticket price (over Taylor's) that broke $20 starting barrier, not an actual concert film but a documentary so it looks like snoozeville if you aren't REALLY into Beyonce and her career (so uber-fans really won't be able to talk friends and friends into it), and higher age of fan who is less likely a movie goer...

That is a big part of the equation on my end while not expecting significant walk-ups -- though I didn't spend much time on it last week either as I wanted to make sure Aquaman was the most data-current unless other ranges were just looking drastically off in the limited time I had to run everything.

 

Looking at current pace strictly by eyeball right now, and agreeing with you on the potential barrier to entry versus Taylor's mom-daughter appeal, I'm tentatively feeling more cautious on Renaissance at this point as well. The flip side of that is I could also see it being deceivingly walk-up/GA friendly in Black communities which often under-index on traditional movies, but that's more theoretical than data-based right now. So there's a lot to juggle there.