Weekend Numbers | May 31-Jun 02, 2024 | actuals | 14.01M GARFIELD | 10.78M FURIOSA | 10.51M IF | 8.97M APES

[kayumanggi]

I've noticed Paramount hasn't been reporting IF's international numbers.

[tonyM]

Fury road seemed to have had more praise online and with critics than with audiences. Main complaint I always heard was 'there wasn't enough Max' so having the studio take him away completely was a huge mistake. A tom hardy sequel would have done far better, people didn't care for Furiosa and the box office shows. Hope they get a chance to give us what we actually wanted but that ship may have sailed now

[titanic2187]

It is such a pity we lost two 200m grossers. KFP4 and GxK are so close to 200m but neither seem to get there. 

 

Just what is so scary about 200m? Why so there are many movies refuse to get there or quickly run away from that range to 300m+? Looks like only Tim has the ball the stay in the 200m+ range.  

[Cmasterclay]

I am deleting this post because I did not double check the rules on gambling before posting it, and do not want to violate anything the board has on that.

Edited June 2 by Cmasterclay

[kayumanggi]

 

This is crazy. What a win for Sony. 

 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Bad Boys looking at 45m OW,

Calm down, it's doing at least 50M.

[Alexander]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Calm down, it's doing at least 50M.

At least? Something like 45-48M wouldn't be so surprising.

[WorkingonaName]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Bad Boys looking at 45m OW, Quiet Place looking at 35 OW, Inside Out at 80m OW, and nothing else above 15m OW. Horrific, horrific month incoming. Instead of belaboring the point about how doomed we are, I am willing to put my money where my mouth is. The new environment is in an absolute death spiral, and I am willing to bet $100 USD to the first person who quotes this that by the end of 2026 at least 50% of the current domestic movie theaters are closed. I am also willing to bet another $100 USD that no year of 2024, 2025, or 2026 tops the domestic box office total of 2023. I don't think another year tops it again ever tbh, but three years seems a fair bet. These are obviously long term bets, but we are in this for the long haul and it is worth betting on. 

2025 has a pretty strong line-up, gonna be  biggest year since 2019.

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Calm down, it's doing at least 50M.

But this is not what the numbers say. I certainly hope I'm wrong. In fact, I was predicting like a John Wick 4 level opening for months and months. I could still be wrong and I'd be happy as fuck. But we can't just say things are happening because we want them to. Shawn's tracking which bakes in the late surge Bad Boys For Life has it under 50m. The tracking thread has tons of numbers - several trackers show a slow pace, and Keyser has been clear he finds the pace unimpressive. These predictions are already ASSUMING that it has a huge late surge - without that late surge being baked in to predictions, it's looking closer to under 40 than over 50.

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Bad Boys looking at 45m OW, Quiet Place looking at 35 OW, Inside Out at 80m OW, and nothing else above 15m OW. Horrific, horrific month incoming. Instead of belaboring the point about how doomed we are, I am willing to put my money where my mouth is. The new environment is in an absolute death spiral, and I am willing to bet $100 USD to the first person who quotes this that by the end of 2026 at least 50% of the current domestic movie theaters are closed. I am also willing to bet another $100 USD that no year of 2024, 2025, or 2026 tops the domestic box office total of 2023. I don't think another year tops it again ever tbh, but three years seems a fair bet. These are obviously long term bets, but we are in this for the long haul and it is worth betting on. 

Holy shit dude. I could say more but I really don't feel like going down that rabbit hole. But Holy Shit.  

[kayumanggi]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is such a pity we lost two 200m grossers. KFP4 and GxK are so close to 200m but neither seem to get there. 

 

Just what is so scary about 200m? Why so there are many movies refuse to get there or quickly run away from that range to 300m+? Looks like only Tim has the ball the stay in the 200m+ range.  

 

2023 had eight 200M movies. I think 2024 can still match that.

DUNE II

INSIDE OUT II

DESPICABLE ME IV

DEADPOOL AND WOLVERINE

JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX

MOANA II

 

and maybe any two from these:

 

TWISTERS

GLADIATOR

MUFASA: THE LION KING

SONIC THE HEDGEHOG III

[emoviefan]

You know the thing with walkups is nobody can predict them until they happen like nobody saw a 73 4 day opening happening for Bad Boys For Life when it was tracking for 40-45. So if presales and tracking are showing the same for Ride Or Die then even a fraction of the walkups gets it past 50m.   And if not they still kept the budget at 90m so a 45 million with summer weekdays to follow and fathers days on it's second weekend would be just fine for this movie. Not great for the overall market place but this whole it's all over thing is just.....

[Eric is Quiet]

On 5/31/2024 at 1:41 PM, Eric Lasagna said:

No offense, but I think you really need a break from this place if this is really hurting your mental health this badly. Your happiness being this reliant on box office numbers wouldn't even be good if the business was booming, and, like I always tell people, it's not like you can't just talk about movies elsewhere on other movie forums that aren't as focused on box office numbers. It makes no sense to hang out around a place you hate.

Still relevant Clay. You don’t seem very happy with box office stuff anymore, and I don’t think it’s good to spend time with a hobby that makes you miserable.

[AnthonyJPHer]

Wooooow that’s a lot of doomposting. Tbh this seems extremely pessimistic to an unnerving degree. I mean tbh I think the only movie of May that shocked me underperforming was Garfield. Apes and IF look to do well domestic and Garfield is doing well internationally but wow Furiosa is dying a painful death right now, but still.
 

June overall looks to be stronger than May and July has at least two big guaranteed hits but August is kind of meh and September seems okay. October, November, and December seem to be extremely strong. This might be the first year where the summer box office is worse than the fall/holiday box office

[Cmasterclay]

8 minutes ago, Eric Lasagna said:

Still relevant Clay. You don’t seem very happy with box office stuff anymore, and I don’t think it’s good to spend time with a hobby that makes you miserable.

I appreciate the concern. The numbers, not the May numbers but the June tracking numbers and presales, are what has me down. I've been saying for months that this year will start to turn around in June and July. But I'm not seeing that now in the June data we have so far, and I'm not seeing it for something like Twisters based on that either, and it's got me down. A couple of weeks ago I was the hopeful one and you were saying that only NTCs will survive. When the numbers are this bad all of us are gonna have shitty weekends and bleak posts sometimes. 

Edited June 2 by Cmasterclay

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Wooooow that’s a lot of doomposting. Tbh this seems extremely pessimistic to an unnerving degree. I mean tbh I think the only movie of May that shocked me underperforming was Garfield. Apes and IF look to do well domestic and Garfield is doing well internationally but wow Furiosa is dying a painful death right now, but still.
 

June overall looks to be stronger than May and July has at least two big guaranteed hits but August is kind of meh and September seems okay. October, November, and December seem to be extremely strong. This might be the first year where the summer box office is worse than the fall/holiday box office

Yeah a little unnerving is a understatement.  Right on with everything else you said.

[Kon]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

Glen Powell is not that hot please, just a normal looking good guy 😅. Which for me Is the best thing. If you have enough carisma you can be good for a larger range of roles and you can be hot for parts need that and also being more believable in what is supposed to be the real context of the movie for a different kind of roles.

 

Ryan Gosling is like that. He can be incredibly hot for a romantic comedy like crazy stupid love but can work also as and outcast man on an indie movie.

Hugh Jackman is also an actor of this kind. 

 

I know Hollywood It's like that but when I see movies like ocean's eleven and you have this large group of thieves and they all have been hottest man of the year for People It's kinda cringe 😅

 

I'm pretty sure Glen Powell is hottest enough to be on the hottest man of the year for People. 

 

At the end, "hotness" could depend on tastes, but I'm pretty sure Glen Powell isn't just a normal looking good guy.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Box Office: 'Haikyu!! Dumpster Battle' Sees $800K Previews In Weak Weekend (deadline.com)

 

Poor Daisy Ridley. Feels like only a matter of time until Hallmark movies come calling for her.

It's not that bad. She can probably land a role on a streaming series, which would be perfectly respectable these days. Maybe the stage. Work is work but I hope she has better options than Christmas In July...

 

 

To Hallmark's credit I will say they figured out how to film under Covid really quickly and were working again (in Canada) by June 2020.

 

I feel that if Covid had happened 10-15 years earlier, movie theaters would have recovered better, not only because streaming was weaker but found footage movies were still trendy. So if theaters couldn't support blockbusters during the worst of Covid, if a $1M microbudget movie could only max out at $20M when theaters were at 25 percent, that would have been fine.

 

Like, Nolan was trying to save theaters in 2020 with Tenet, when what theaters really could have used at that time was something from him on the scale of Following (obviously not that cheap but a small bare bones production). Still annoyed that the most high profile "filmed in summer 2020" movie we got was Malcolm & Marie...

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Fall Guy really didn't need that budget.

 

180m on a 75-80m budget would have been a solid enough.

 

Numbers it's making are solid for the kind of movie it is.

Universal just got carried away and oversetimated it's appeal.

 

IF 110m budget is reasonable to me . It's just not clicking OS.

You can see where the money went onscreen, in a way. Unless it changed a lot during filming though, the studio should have been able to tell how expensive it would be from the script and ordered some tweaks before cameras rolled.

[AnthonyJPHer]

24 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I appreciate the concern. The numbers, not the May numbers but the June tracking numbers and presales, are what has me down. I've been saying for months that this year will start to turn around in June and July. But I'm not seeing that now in the June data we have so far, and I'm not seeing it for something like Twisters based on that either, and it's got me down. A couple of weeks ago I was the hopeful one and you were saying that only NTCs will survive. When the numbers are this bad all of us are gonna have shitty weekends and bleak posts sometimes. 

tracking never tells the full picture. We won’t know for sure until a few days before the release of each film. The doomposting is premature at this point. June has barely begun. 

[Spidey Freak]

2 hours ago, Maggie said:

I feel Tom Holland is in the same spot. Besides their huge franchises, nothing sticks

 

Uncharted? He was definitely the draw there post NWH. And he's still people's number one choice to star in The Legend of Zelda as well.

 

Outside of franchises, I feel Zendaya and he should find a strong, wholesome romcom script for the two of them to star in. Audiences are there. Or now that he's doing the Bard onstage, maybe try a modern take on Shakespeare like Romeo + Juliet. I know Zendaya would kill Twelfth Night.