Weekday Thread June 24-27. Inside Out 2 $11.2m, Bad Boys $1.6m Thursday

[Migs20242]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$ buddy. How much $ you win if it does $400m

$15

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

$15

Congrats.

[charlie Jatinder]

$13M.

 

Its now ahead of TS4 on same date in 2019. 
 

TS4 added $268M after 26th June. If IO2 manages same it will be reach $669M.

 

If it does 10% ahead, $696M.

[thajdikt]

So Riley is coming for Thanos then, domestically

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, thajdikt said:

So Riley is coming for Thanos then, domestically

 

I won't even rule put the possibility of Riley coming for both T'Challa and Maverick. 

[charlie Jatinder]

37 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

So Riley is coming for Thanos then, domestically

All of Americas except Canada

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

All of Americas except Canada

US playing like LATAM while Canada plays like India? A true mystery 🤪

[THUNDER BIRD]

Everytime any such movie comes, it reminds me how much Infinity War underperformed Domestic after the opening weekend.

 

I blame the ending, but then the same ending made Endgame do what many thought was mathematically impossible.

 

So perfectly balanced i guess.

[THUNDER BIRD]

2 minutes ago, Joyous Legion said:

US playing like LATAM while Canada plays like India? A true mystery 🤪

If Canada was playing like India then it would be doing absolutely nothing in Canada.

 

Just like it is doing absolutely nothing in India.

[Migs20242]

 

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, Migs20242 said:

 

 

I just know he's wrong, but if Horizon: An American Saga somehow opens with $40M this weekend, I'm gonna go out on the street and scream for a solid ten seconds. 

[Insomnia]

"$10m in big cities and $30m in the Midwest and West"

 

Maybe they split the difference and we actually see a nice $20M number for Horizon. That would be a pleasant surprise. And if AQP somehow hits 60, though I'm not counting on it, we're looking at an even bigger overall weekend than I would have expected, and it was already looking great to me before.

[Insomnia]

1 minute ago, Ryan C said:

 

I just know he's wrong, but if Horizon: An American Saga somehow opens with $40M this weekend, I'm gonna go out on the street and scream for a solid ten seconds. 

I think what he means if you judge sales by the big cities, the OW is looking at $10M. If you judge by the West and Midwest it looks like $30M. I don't think it's a combined total.

[Cheddar Please]

15 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Everytime any such movie comes, it reminds me how much Infinity War underperformed Domestic after the opening weekend.

 

I blame the ending, but then the same ending made Endgame do what many thought was mathematically impossible.

 

So perfectly balanced i guess.

2.63x in hindsight was still pretty solid for an opener of its caliber, its just that it got upstaged by a once in a decade run in Black Panther literally 2 months prior. To this day I still consider BP the absolute benchmark for all domestic home runs, a massive opener followed by nearly unmatched legs, with a legendary crawl to 700m. Only TGM, A2, and probably IO2 will have exceeded its post-OW gross despite opening lower, not to mention its the run that got me into box office tracking 😉

Edited Thursday at 04:17 AM by Cheddar Please

[Ryan C]

3 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

I think what he means if you judge sales by the big cities, the OW is looking at $10M. If you judge by the West and Midwest it looks like $30M. I don't think it's a combined total.

 

Ok, that makes more sense. Still, he had me for a minute.

[Migs20242]

Imagine the Inside Out 2 3rd weekend numbers like last weekend:

 

Friday - $20-22 million

Saturday - $28-30 million

Sunday -  $20-22 million

 

3rd projected weekend for IO2: $68-74 million which would give IO2 a $480-486 million domestic overall.

 

It's more likely that IO2 3rd Friday will rank 4th in Biggest 3rd Friday at the US Box Office behind Star Wars 7, Avatar 1 and 2.

Edited Thursday at 04:23 AM by Migs20242

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, Migs20242 said:

Imagine the Inside Out 2 3rd weekend numbers like last weekend:

 

Friday - $20-22 million

Saturday - $28-30 million

Sunday -  $20-22 million

 

3rd projected weekend for IO2: $68-74 million which would give IO2 a $480-486 domestic overall.

 

I feel like $70M+ for Inside Out 2 this weekend is a bit too high. 

 

Going with somewhere between $60M-$65M. That seems a bit more realistic (especially with it losing PLFs to A Quiet Place: Day One), but I would love for this movie to shock us for the third time in a row.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 minute ago, Cheddar Please said:

2.63x in hindsight was still pretty solid for an opener of its caliber, its just that it got upstaged by a once in a decade run in Black Panther literally 2 months prior. 

Yeah especially after Ultron and Civil War's legs were. There's a cap for how good these fan driven franchises can perform post-OW unless you get those sweet Christmas/Holiday legs. It's why I don't expect Deadpool & Wolverine to have great legs regardless of quality.

[Insomnia]

3 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

Imagine the Inside Out 2 3rd weekend numbers like last weekend:

 

Friday - $20-22 million

Saturday - $28-30 million

Sunday -  $20-22 million

 

3rd projected weekend for IO2: $68-74 million which would give IO2 a $480-486 domestic overall.

It'll likely be more like:

17.6

23.4

18.0

Weekend: 59

 

I may be soft on the Saturday number though. Could definitely be higher, which would also raise the Sunday number. Low 60's most likely.

 

[Joyous Legion]

15 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

I just know he's wrong, but if Horizon: An American Saga somehow opens with $40M this weekend, I'm gonna go out on the street and scream for a solid ten seconds. 

No he’s saying that in big cities it looks like a 10M opener and in west/midwest it looks like 30. If you take that at face value then because cities are the main BO driver it would suggest 13-17 or something (I would say more like 8&25 for 10-12ish