Weekend Numbers [June 28-30, 2024] | Actuals | 57.52M INSIDE OUT II | 52.20M AQP: DAY ONE | 11.05M HORIZON: AAS - CHAPTER 1

[Grand Cine]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

60m from 17m friday seems tad optimistic. What kind of increase they are expecting for tomorrow and the drop on Sunday. AQP on the other hand should do more than 50m from that friday. 

It should make around 40% jump for Saturday and around 20% drop for Sunday but yes Saturday is too higher than the last Sat . But also i think Fri jump is a little less than I anticipated ( around 60% jump) because this week was much more normal than last week.

[Eric is Quiet]

Early Deadline is early Deadline, but this seems low for Quiet Place. Though maybe I’m forgetting how frontloaded horror is or something.

[ringedmortality]

17 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Seems like the debate dampened numbers yesterday. These are good FRI jumps.

 

Weren't the debate numbers well below the 2020 debate

[Ryan C]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

PM Update

 

https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-a-quiet-place-day-one-horizon-1235985586/

 

IO2 60

AQP 48.5

Horizon 12-13

BB4 11

Kalki 6.5 3-day

 

 

 

I think Inside Out 2 will stay at around $60M and I'm glad to see Horizon not dipping below $10M, (hopefully those walkups continue), but the Quiet Place: Day One numbers do have me concerned

 

It's still very early and I'm sure Deadline is lowballing this projection, but there was a part of me that was seeing this coming even with those strong preview numbers. I tried finding past franchise horror comps for Day One and I found Insidious: The Red Door that opened around the same time last year. 

 

If Day One were to have the same Thursday Preview to Sunday weekend multiplier as The Red Door (6.6x), it would do about $44.88M this weekend. Though I'm sure that number will be significantly higher, it's still something that caught my attention. 

 

Overall, a $48.5M opening is still great for this prequel and very well-deserved (the movie was very solid), but hopefully the somewhat weak audience reception doesn't hurt walk-up business over the weekend. 

 

P.S. Don't you hate it when Deadline either forgets or just doesn't say that the film could maybe perform a little better over the weekend? 

[Eric is Quiet]

4 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Weren't the debate numbers well below the 2020 debate

51.3 million people is still 51.3 million people. That’s 15% of the nation’s population 

[emoviefan]

Yeah Deadline probably being Deadline with Quiet Place or maybe it is a little frontloaded and not great WOM kicking in. 48 million would not be bad at all though. QP 2 did  47 for the 3 day part of a 4 day weekend and this being a prequel nothing to sneeze at. And Horizon doing  12-13  would not be a disaster but it would not be good by any stretch either. 

Edited Friday at 11:13 PM by emoviefan

[ringedmortality]

Is there even gonna be any sort of Smile/Sound of Freedom surprise break out this year?

[DAJK]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

Is there even gonna be any sort of Smile/Sound of Freedom surprise break out this year?

Smile 2  

[AniNate]

2 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Is there even gonna be any sort of Smile/Sound of Freedom surprise break out this year?

 

Well we didn't know about sound of freedom until it was already happening

[ringedmortality]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Well we didn't know about sound of freedom until it was already happening

 

We didn't know about Smile either, but is there anything with that sort of potential. People talked about Horizon being that early on but that clearly didn't manifest.

[John Marston]

11 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Is there even gonna be any sort of Smile/Sound of Freedom surprise break out this year?

 

There is this Blake Lively movie based on a popular book.  Could maybe do Crawdads numbers 

[AniNate]

Horizon wasn't quite the same situation. It had pre Cannes cinephile interest but the reviews killed it. Sound of freedom just came out of nowhere. Anything like that would be inherently unpredictable. Using it as a comparison was basically just a last resort since no other demographic seemed to be interested in the movie anymore 

 

In the sense of bipartisan interest adult targeted dramas, there's always the possibility some Oscar bait hits, and maybe horizon could've been that if the reception were better. HSX price got up to $94 before the Cannes screening. 

 

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 11:55 PM by AniNate

[Flopped]

23 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Is there even gonna be any sort of Smile/Sound of Freedom surprise break out this year?

 

Inside Out 2. People expected it to open to 60m. Instead, it did 101m...in its second weekend. 

[kayumanggi]

47 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Is there even gonna be any sort of Smile/Sound of Freedom surprise break out this year?

 

I would like ALIEN: ROMULUS and NOSFERATU to do well.

Edited Saturday at 12:17 AM by kayumanggi

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, Flopped said:

 

Inside Out 2. People expected it to open to 60m. Instead, it did 101m...in its second weekend. 

Not one person thought it was opening to 60 like at all. The lowest anybody was going with like 80-85.

[AniNate]

Still looking like a good weekend for theaters anyway. Gru and co will add another boost next week.

 

At least a lot of small town theaters look to be making bank on Horizon based on what I've seen.

[Insomnia]

4 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

I haven't watched many movies this month, so I deleted TikTok off my phone and have been slowly trying to  rebuild my attention span. When it got to the point where I needed to step outside of the theater to scroll my phone for a bit, I knew I was fucked.

I won't lie, that's terrifying.

 

Try it again though.

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

I won't lie, that's terrifying.

 

Try it again though.

Terrifying and depressing. 

[Insomnia]

Just finished seeing Horizon.

 

Gorgeous film visually and with the production values, but yeesh. I consider myself an old soul when it comes to movies but even I thought this was really rough. It is absolutely 100% a TV show. The script is meandering and the editing is wonky. Like I didn't even realize the movie was over when the montage for the 2nd part started playing. 🤣 It seemed like one of those concluding montages that shows the audience where we're leaving all the characters for now at first. There was no fade to black. The last scene just transitioned right into the montage.

[Insomnia]

5 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Terrifying and depressing. 

Yeah but I can also appreciate the honesty lol.