DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE WEEKEND THREAD | 211 DOM, 233.1 OS, 444.1 WW | Disney does it again!

[Bob Train]

Considering WOM, $500m is very likely. $600m in play depending on legs. 

[Belakor]

A crowd pleaser no doubt, but I still think it will front-loaded over the OW. 

The multiplier I expect is 2.4

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Cap 4 has a chance to do well while Thunderbolts I have little hope in.

 

Is it honestly kind of funny that I think The Fantastic Four has the best chance out of all the 2025 MCU to become a legitimate hit? 

 

I just feel like there is a lot of goodwill (especially with the cast) when it comes to that one, which is weird because you'd think the safer bet (Brave New World) would be a hit, but not really. Still, I'm definitely looking forward to see how Marvel, Kevin Feige, and Matt Shakman do this movie.

[Assassin]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

10M ish I guess

So $32-35M weekend.

[fabiopazzo2]

3 hours ago, grey ghost said:

Forget Deadpool 3...

 

Who has the balls to make a prediction for Captain America 4?

Right now?

 

500/550M WW(total) will be a good success.

the real question is "after all the reshoot, it will be at least a fun movie?"

[DAR]

Remember when theaters were pronounced dead?

[Migs20242]

@charlie Jatinder How’s Inside Out 2 7th Friday numbers doing?

[Eric the Marxist]

I'm still on a "expect the worst" with almost every superhero movie's box office potential until I'm proven otherwise. And none of the 2025 Marvel movies are giving me much confidence. Though I will say that Superman has potential to be a huge breakout. I doubt it will reach Avatar 3, but it could get close if Gunn really captures the character and what people love about him.

[fabiopazzo2]

3 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Guardians Vol 2 is the best Guardians movie and the best MCU movie.

I think theres so many MCU movies right now... 

 

for me 

 

IW>>>>Gotg3>>>>ecc ecc

[Ryan C]

Just now, DAR said:

Remember when theaters were pronounced dead?

 

I remember and all because a prequel that (despite me loving it and wishing for it to succeed) that clearly no one wanted to see. 

 

Again, I still firmly believe that if Furiosa hadn't come out on Memorial Day weekend (a big time for movies) and opened as poorly as it did, we would've never had to have gone through the whole "cinema is dead" narrative for two weeks until Bad Boys opened. 

[fabiopazzo2]

21 minutes ago, Assassin said:

So is $500M+ is a done deal with such $200M+ OW?
And odds for $600M?

With A+?
 

601M 🔒

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, Eric Wilson said:

I'm still on a "expect the worst" with almost every superhero movie's box office potential until I'm proven otherwise. And none of the 2025 Marvel movies are giving me much confidence. Though I will say that Superman has potential to be a huge breakout. I doubt it will reach Avatar 3, but it could get close if Gunn really captures the character and what people love about him.

 

Yeah, I'm pretty much in the "hope for the best but prepare for the worst" outcome for all the superhero movies next year. 

 

For the sake of movie theaters and because I legitimately want both Marvel and DC to succeed, I sincerely hope they have good luck next year. 

[DAR]

2 minutes ago, Eric Wilson said:

I'm still on a "expect the worst" with almost every superhero movie's box office potential until I'm proven otherwise. And none of the 2025 Marvel movies are giving me much confidence. Though I will say that Superman has potential to be a huge breakout. I doubt it will reach Avatar 3, but it could get close if Gunn really captures the character and what people love about him.

It does feel like both Joker and Venom could also crack 100 million ow.

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, Belakor said:

A crowd pleaser no doubt, but I still think it will front-loaded over the OW. 

The multiplier I expect is 2.4

yeah this is a fandom-driven movie.

 

I think $500m is the higher-end target DOM

 

Out of all of the movies that made $200m OW, you have the December ones, which have an obvious legs advantage. Then you have the last two Avengers movies, which did not have exceptional multipliers, even if their OW was massive.

 

The other points are the first Avengers movie, which was released before Thursday previews were a thing. And then Black Panther, which I think reached an audience outside of just MCU fans, which is not yet known for Deadpool 3. And there's Jurassic World, and again, I don't think that's as fan-driven as Deadpool 3.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

I would understand the uproar of Furiosa's performance if it was actually a proper sequel to Fury Road but we know prequels/spin offs are hit and miss. Ok $62M gross is lower than even I thought but it's not surprising it flopped big. 

 

 

[dudalb]

4 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Yeah, I'm pretty much in the "hope for the best but prepare for the worst" outcome for all the superhero movies next year. 

 

For the sake of movie theaters and because I legitimately want both Marvel and DC to succeed, I sincerely hope they have good luck next year. 

Hell, i don;t want to make any predcitions about 2025 for any movie. 

I am just too scared how bad things can get in US if things go south in November.

 

[Eric the Marxist]

7 minutes ago, DAR said:

It does feel like both Joker and Venom could also crack 100 million ow.

Joker yes. Venom? Ehhhhhhhhhh

[dudalb]

1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I would understand the uproar of Furiosa's performance if it was actually a proper sequel to Fury Road but we know prequels/spin offs are hit and miss. Ok $62M gross is lower than even I thought but it's not surprising it flopped big. 

 

 

And It is not like Fury Road was a huge hit. I was surprised when I looked up the figures. it did well but was the huge hit I though it was.

[Ryan C]

Just now, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I would understand the uproar of Furiosa's performance if it was actually a proper sequel to Fury Road but we know prequels/spin offs are hit and miss. Ok $62M gross is lower than even I thought but it's not surprising it flopped big. 

 

 

 

Honestly, at first I thought it was a prequel problem in that if you're not part of an already massive franchise like Star Wars or Harry Potter or if you're not a horror franchise (The Purge), doing a prequel is practically a death sentence. 

 

Then A Quiet Place: Day One opened well and proved the point that prequels aren't really the problem. It's what else are you offering to audiences who aren't immediately gonna go because of the IP. Furiosa just had nothing beyond the Mad Max IP and because that IP means nearly nothing to the prime moviegoing demographic, it resulted in no walk-up business and no one who wasn't over the age of 45 caring to see that movie. 

 

It sucks, but that's just what happened.

[Assassin]

23 minutes ago, Belakor said:

A crowd pleaser no doubt, but I still think it will front-loaded over the OW. 

The multiplier I expect is 2.4

It has much better initial audience reception than MoM which had 2.2x multiplier. I expect 2.6-2.8x multiplier at least.

Edited July 27 by Assassin