JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[LABAS]

Despite the 6 % down from last wed, the ticket price is 10% higher (1000yen ~1100 ) So, the actual daily gross will be higher as well..

[LABAS]

Despite the 6 % down from last wed, the ticket price is 10% higher (1000yen ~1100 ) So, the actual daily gross will be higher as well..

[mfantin65]

Well I think just about everyone here (myself included) always wanted to believe even your most bullish predictions mfantin but they also didn't want to set themselves up for disappointment if it didn't happen. Kudos to you for staying the course but I'm sure you recognize some of the reasoning behind the slightly more conservative estimates as well. Right now I'm just psyched about the real possibility of Frozen hitting #6 WW over that awful transformers movie but I'm still not gonna say it's completely locked just in case the worst should happen and it mostly falls off before Golden Week.

I haven't locked TS3 and TF3 yet, just FN 110byen. No way it misses that. But TS3 is looking good, I am waiting on next Mon number to see how it holds post SB.I hear a lot about potential disappointment. If you're thinking 100m but hoping for 130 and it falls short, isn't that disappointing too? Or does the lock cause something mentally and missing it makes it worse? Im older, in my day there were no ribbons for 10th place like today, take 1,2,3 or get nothing and like it and try harder next time. I have noticed that BOM and BO mostly use could and might even when it clearly obvious a number will be reached .it seems like no one says anything w certainty anymore in the media. Times have changed. I feel you though, I've heard others say it and I'm holding off on locking higher til next week. My calls are based solely on the numbers in conjunction w past events.It is looking like a rare event though as I thought before the open. Monday will tell us a lot. In the end its exciting. Omni said his digestion was off when sat numbers were low, me too. Makes it sweeter when it pops again though. Edited April 2, 2014 by mfantin65

[mfantin65]

Despite the 6 % down from last wed, the ticket price is 10% higher (1000yen ~1100 ).So, the actual daily gross will be higher as well..

Yup! If the percentage holds tonight we will have a cash increase.by 4%. Yesterday did 75% more in the evening, Toho40k/70k. Last Wed did 90% more, 46k/83kYesterday all tix were 1100, 55 T multiplier. Today 80% will be 1100, 20% at higher prices. Today should be much bigger cash than yesterday. Today will be $11.80 ave w the bump. Toho multiplier is now 59 for ladies day.Ave ticket price is $12.20 for the run. Last weekend was 12.30. OW 12.60. They discount in later weeks.Tomorrow 62x for SB. Weekend will be $13.30 ave now. Toho x 66.5Between 4.5-5m today. We'll see in a few hours Edited April 2, 2014 by mfantin65

[mfantin65]

2200 numbers anyone?

[LABAS]

toho74515yesterday 69958

[mfantin65]

toho74515yesterday 69958

4.5m wed10.8m week 2.2m ahead of last week.15m+ likely. 62.4m total

[druv10]

4.5m wed10.8m week 2.2m ahead of last week.15m+ likely.62.4m total

 

So around 73-74M after the weekend.  100M is absolutely locked in this scenario and if it doesn't collapse after the SB then 130M+ is possible. 

[LABAS]

TOHO  Weekend Showtimes

 

Frozen　　　　　　　470→475Doraemon　　　　　230→224

 

I am loving it

[mfantin65]

So around 73-74M after the weekend. 100M is absolutely locked in this scenario and if it doesn't collapse after the SB then 130M+ is possible.

yup! Maybe 75m. Now your talking. People are seeing the potential and getting on board. Omni mentioned 150m as a hope and IM3 has been mentioned by Rsyu as a wish. I keep hinting goldfish. As you said, collapse is 100m+ and a good hold 130m. A tremendous hold and GW? 1??m. Ha ha, i wont say anything about that until monday. Let the fervor begin... Edited April 2, 2014 by mfantin65

[edroger3]

Japan daily grosses

 

  Adm Toho       Adm Total Gross   diff-1w diff-2w

total 1.037.832  5.313.708  $62.313.273  

fri    48.769  242.138  $ 2.170.234  

sat    59.121  293.536  $ 3.619.296  

sun    64.414  319.816  $ 3.941.726  

mon    19.967 99.136  $ 1.243.167  

tue    21.651  107.497  $ 1.348.015  

wed    43.281  214.890  $ 2.694.723  

thr    26.909  133.603  $ 1.675.384  

fri    69.267  343.911  $ 4.312.640 42,03%

sat    67.663  335.947  $ 4.242.336 14,45%

sun    68.400  339.606  $ 4.288.545   6,19%  

mon    28.363  152.026  $ 1.702.688 42,05%

tue    33.679  180.519  $ 2.021.818 55,55%

wed    83.675  448.498  $ 5.023.178 93,33%

thr    40.801  218.693  $ 2.449.366 51,63%

fri    37.236  199.585  $ 2.235.352 - 46,24% - 17,57%

sat 58.906  292.174  $ 3.608.346 - 12,94% - 0,46%

sun    80.450  399.032  $ 4.967.948 17,62%   24,77%

mon    40.807  218.726  $ 2.447.539 43,87% 120,63%

tue    69.958  374.975  $ 3.847.690 107,72%   248,82%

wed    74.515  399.400  $ 4.473.284 - 10,95% 85,86%

Edited April 2, 2014 by edroger

[Omni]

Yay, the number of showtimes is slightly increasing this time!

Frozen should be close to 68M right before the weekend starts. WIR dropped 20% on this same weekend, so a weekend above or around 7M should be doable. 75M by Sunday is quite likely actually.

 

In February I had the hope that Frozen could open to 9M+ and finish around 130M. I had to try to be as 'reasonable' as possible in order not to be disappointed by a very solid 7.5M OW, after all TF3 was still in reach with that number. Can't believe the 130M+ hope has been revived.

 

Back to reasonable-conservative-armageddon mood: hope is the last to die, but it dies too; Doraemon's Mon+Tue was up 90% from the previous week; the phantom of south korea will visit us next week.

Edited April 2, 2014 by Omni

[mfantin65]

Yay, the number of showtimes is slightly increasing this time!

Frozen should be close to 68M right before the weekend starts. WIR dropped 20% on this same weekend, so a weekend above or around 7M should be doable. 75M by Sunday is quite likely actually.

In February I had the hope that Frozen could open to 9M+ and finish around 130M. I had to try to be as 'reasonable' as possible in order not to be disappointed by a very solid 7.5M OW, after all TF3 was still in reach with that number. Can't believe the 130M+ hope has been revived.

Back to reasonable-conservative-armageddon mood: hope is the last to die, but it dies too; Doraemon's Mon+Tue was up 90% from the previous week; the phantom of south korea will visit us next week.

So goes monday, so goes the week. We will have a great idea on monday if its SK or the stratosphere.!

What's your prediction for next week, Mon-Sun?

Previous predictions. I know you had higher numbers in mind but...

Round 1: Initial me 110m u 75m. me win

Round 2: Revised. me 128m u 105m me win (if you concede its going over 116.5m)

Round 3: End SB. me 73m u 68m. me win

Hint: go with ur hope number not conservative one, I want to see you win one!

Say your a prisoner in North Korea and Kim Jung Il, who btw loves disney, says "predict Frozen closer than me and go free, lose and off to the firing squad!" We do this on the trading floor all the time then buy 20k shares of stock. ;-)

What ur number? Dont forget there is an 8% price hike to apply.

Edited April 2, 2014 by mfantin65

[Omni]

Haha, I'd probably go with 122M in that case.

 

I still think it's not going to get a very strong multiplier post-Spring Break. To be honest, 105M was not a conservative prediction.   I had no idea the SB boost would be so strong. My math gave me a ratio of 6+:4-, meaning a 60/65% addition to its gross as of the last day of SB. I used 66M, so 66*1.65=105/110M. With a projected 75M 24-day gross, I'd get 75*1.625=122M.

 

(That round 3 doesn't count, I was set on the wrong track by Corpse saying something about this week being weaker than the previous one. You'd have won anyway, though, as I'd have guessed 72M  )

 

My hope number would be 160M

 

 

[mfantin65]

Haha, I'd probably go with 122M in that case.

I still think it's not going to get a very strong multiplier post-Spring Break. To be honest, 105M was not a conservative prediction. I had no idea the SB boost would be so strong. My math gave me a ratio of 6+:4-, meaning a 60/65% addition to its gross as of the last day of SB. I used 66M, so 66*1.65=105/110M. With a projected 75M 24-day gross, I'd get 75*1.625=122M.

(That round 3 doesn't count, I was set on the wrong track by Corpse saying something about this week being weaker than the previous one. You'd have won anyway, though, as I'd have guessed 72M )

My hope number would be 160M

Oh 122 is your gun to the head number eh. I upped mine to 140m but next weeks numbers may tell us something different.

The challenge, however, was what you thought the next mon to sun number would be after this 23-25m week. Thats the number that will give us a better idea of a final gross.

Corpse is more conservative than you are. He will cause you to lower estimates. Got me to lower my original 130m to 110m back in Feb.

Everyone is thinking big drop. I say 14m.

Edited April 2, 2014 by mfantin65

[Omni]

Oh then 12M - 6.5 over the weekdays and 5.5 over the weekend.

[mfantin65]

Oh then 12M - 6.5 over the weekdays and 5.5 over the weekend.

That was my low end thought, which would still be a solid hold. thinking 7.3wd/6.7wei need 15k toho monday= 1m for that to happenu need 13k = 850k.either way it'll be well into the 80s and over 100 going into GWSick number: It would be close to 100m this sunday if it was 2years ago when yen was at 78 per $. Edited April 2, 2014 by mfantin65

[Omni]

Yeah, tracking Frozen with Toy Story 3's exchange rate and 3D surcharge would have been the craziest thing ever. 200M in play...

 

I don't think it can possibly keep 75/80% of its 3rd weekend gross on its 5th weekend, especially with SB being over. Everything over 6M would really surprise me.

[mfantin65]

Yeah, tracking Frozen with Toy Story 3's exchange rate and 3D surcharge would have been the craziest thing ever. 200M in play...I don't think it can possibly keep 75/80% of its 3rd weekend gross on its 5th weekend, especially with SB being over. Everything over 6M would really surprise me.

when its holiday/summer time everyone tends to go to the movies even to see crap. Then you get the big drop cause crap can't hold on its own merit. But this is SB and skewing older. Other movies pop 100% midweek during holiday or when skewing younger. Frozen only went up 50% mw and I dont know how much of an effect SB has on weekends w a wider demo, other than Sun eve w school out. . Im hoping for a surprise hold. Can't wait til monday.

[Boxx93]

I have a strong feeling that Frozen will hold very well after spring break, the price hike should not stop japanese audience to see a movie that is really worth watching in theatres multiple times and with a very strong WOM. Skewing older audience always helps you get really good legs in Japan. That is why I have confidence that the South Korea situation wont repeat here.

 

Call me crazy but I am sticking with $230m total. The Spirited Away total in dollars unadjusted.