JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[catlover]

Ponyos week 5 was a huge obon boost, 22m, but week 4 was an 18m summer week, TS3 week 5 was 14.5 in summer.14 is a huge week 5 outside of summer, unprecedented i assume, and I assume there is little competion for the next two weeks

 

Actually, Detective Conan is released 2 weekends from now (April 19). Same demographics, so not only it will be a strong competition, with OW around $6M, it will also challenge Frozen for the #1 spot.

[LABAS]

11000 is huge. Thatll go up by 60-100%, 18-22k exceeding my expectations.1.2m- 1.5m dayBack out 20% for last day of SB boost and its1m-1.2mmonday multiplier is 7 for the midweek7-8.5m.Still need tomorrow and wed to confirm but this bodes well for a 14m+ week 5.Ponyos week 5 was a huge obon boost, 22m, but week 4 was an 18m summer week, TS3 week 5 was 14.5 in summer.14 is a huge week 5 outside of summer, unprecedented i assume, and I assume there is little competion for the next two weeks

 Tonight TOHO is 22202

  I think it should be 150m Yen tonight ~

[edroger3]

Toho monday 22.00: 22202

[LABAS]

TOHO ：20140407  22:00 Sold　 Seats　 Showtimes　作品名17732　116725　302  　  Frozen (Dubbed)*2948　*44953　187　     映画ドラえもん　新・のび太の大魔境～ペコと５人の探検隊～*2527　*24978　*95　 Frozen （subtitle）*2313　*43866　252　   白ゆき姫殺人事件*1912　*54426　268　   チーム・バチスタＦＩＮＡＬ　ケルベロスの肖像*1765　*34878　178　   平成ライダー対昭和ライダー　仮面ライダー大戦スーパー戦隊*1639　*38896　231 　 サンブンノイチ 

It is clear that even the subtitle version of Frozen smashed  all the other  local movies.

2527 / 24978 > 10 % ....Doraemon has twice almost twice the seats and showtimes but

the difference in adm is only 421...

[mfantin65]

1.5m day. That would be a 10.5 midweek if 7x held up. Evening number was up 90%. I wonder how much of an impact the last day of SB really had with such a good evening. . The first 2 Tuesday's were 10% larger than monday. Lets see what that is tomorrow to get a better gauge. For now: 1.5m monday77.5m totalProjection 7.5m-9.5m midweek 7.0m-8.0m weekend92.0m total possible on sunday. +/- 1.5m.I'll tighten that up tomorrow.

Edited April 7, 2014 by mfantin65

[LABAS]

TOHO 2014 04 07

 

Frozen  22202

All other movies 17717

[catlover]

Wow it's even more dominating on a weekday. Frozen also had the best drop from last Monday (Toho numbers) despite having family crowds. Strong weekdays, strong weekends, it's attracting all kinds of demographics. So I think it won't collapse post-SB.

 

Frozen -45.6%

Doraemon -78.5%

Kamen Rider -67.4%

Snow White Murder Case -51.2%

Team Batista -60.8%

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty -52.1%

[edroger3]

TOHO 2014 04 07

 

Frozen  22202

All other movies 17717

56% of market share.

In comparison CA2 have 57% in its stellar opening weekend in North America

Edited April 7, 2014 by edroger

[LABAS]

56% of market share.

In comparison CA2 have 57% in its stellar opening weekend in North America

Yes, but what's more amazing is that it is Frozen's fifth week.

[edroger3]

Yes, but what's more amazing is that it is Frozen's fifth week.

that's what I think

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

Wow it's even more dominating on a weekday. Frozen also had the best drop from last Monday (Toho numbers) despite having family crowds. Strong weekdays, strong weekends, it's attracting all kinds of demographics. So I think it won't collapse post-SB.

 

Frozen -45.6%

Doraemon -78.5%

Kamen Rider -67.4%

Snow White Murder Case -51.2%

Team Batista -60.8%

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty -52.1%

Frozen will probably reach 150m?

[catlover]

Frozen will probably reach 150m?

 

It's possible, but we still need to see how well it's holding after the spring break this week and next week when it faces Detective Conan, a local animation. For now I'm thinking 130M.

[mfantin65]

Here is the table I posted two weeks ago, I leaned to the optimistic side and I'm sure many people thought it was bit lofty.

 

Phenom Update. If it holds well it looks like this. My original prediction was 110m. Im hoping and thinking it has a chance to beat TS3

Lets see how it tracks TS3 which has a 15% currency advantage.  Its got MU beat no need to compare.

 

TS3                                              Frozen

Weekend         Total

$11,156,768   $11,156,768.     $7,531,000    $9,731,000

$8,312,960.    $27,090,842.     $8,500,000    $29,700,000

$6,121,284.    $44,328,765 $9,500,000   $53,000,000 est

$7,134,502.    $62,557,777  $8,000,000  $73,000,000 Proj- end SB

$4,864,813.    $76,990,462  $6,000,000   $85,000,000 Got to hold well post SB

$6,245,451.    $95,797,512   $5,000,000 $95,000,000

$3,185,494     $107,751,566 $4,000,000   $103,000,000 

$2,908,764     $115,404,636   $5,000,000   $115,000,000 Golden week

$1,600,000  $122,700,000 $3,000,000   $121,000,000

$126,660,533 $130,000,000+ ???

 

The following week I tweaked it up a little.

 

 

Phenom Update. If it holds real well it looks like this. My original prediction was 110m. Im hoping and thinking it has a chance to beat TS3

Lets see how it tracks TS3 which has a 15% currency advantage.  Its got MU beat no need to compare.

With unprecedented consecutive WE increases, we may have a run at the Top Ten.

 

TS3  Frozen

Weekend         Total  Midweek  Weekend  Week Total

$11,156,768   $11,156,768. $7,531,000  $9,731,000 $ 9,731,000

$8,312,960.    $27,090,842.  9,500,000   8,500,000 20,000,000  29,700,000

$6,121,284.    $44,328,765 13,300,000   8,600,000 21,900,000    51,600,000

$7,134,502.    $62,557,777  14,000,000 8,000,000 22,000,000 73,600,000 Est. End SB. 8% hike bumps rev.

$4,864,813.    $76,990,462 7,000,000  7,000,000 14,000,000 87,600,000  Got to hold post SB. Midweek may drop 50%.WE +15%

$6,245,451.    $95,797,512 6,000,000   6,000,000 12,000,000  99,600,000 15% drop

$3,185,494     $107,751,566 5,000,000   4,500,000 9,500,000  109,100,000  Spidey,2 locals compete. -25% WE. Will hold screens.

$2,908,764     $115,404,636 8,000,000   5,000,000 13,000,000  122,100,000  Golden week. Midweek bump 60%+. WE 10%

$1,600,000  $122,700,000 5,000,000   3,000,000 8,000,000  130,100,000  One day of GW on Mon

  $126,660,533 $140,000,000+ ? 20 x OW? Ponyo?

 

Sick projection, but who thought Avatar would do186m after $6.8m third weekend at 50m.

 

And I was still short.. Now it gets sicker.

 

 

TS3  Frozen

Weekend         Total  Midweek  Weekend  Week Total

$11,156,768   $11,156,768. $7,531,000  $9,731,000 $ 9,731,000

$8,312,960.    $27,090,842.  9,500,000   8,500,000 20,000,000  29,700,000

$6,121,284.    $44,328,765 13,300,000   8,600,000 21,900,000    51,600,000

$7,134,502.    $62,557,777 16,000,000  8,600,000  24,600,000 76,200,000

$4,864,813.    $76,990,462 8,000,000 7,500,000 16,000,000 91,700,000 Est

$6,245,451.    $95,797,512 7,000,000   6,500,000 13,500,000 105,200,000 15% drop

$3,185,494     $107,751,566 6,000,000   5,400,000 11,500,000  116,700,000  Spidey,2 locals compete. -25% WE. Will hold screens.

$2,908,764     $115,404,636 10,000,000   6,200,000 16,200,000  132,900,000  Golden week. Midweek bump 60%+. WE 10%

$1,600,000  $122,700,000 8,000,000   4,000,000 12,000,000  144,900,000  One day of GW on Mon

    $126,660,533   $170,000,000+? 25 x OW? Ponyo? Howls?

Edited April 7, 2014 by mfantin65

[mfantin65]

Frozen will probably reach 150m?

With todays hold 150m is becoming very likely

[BadAtGender]

I'm still leaning towards about a 130m finish at this point, but 150 doesn't seem that far-fetched.

[mfantin65]

Actually, Detective Conan is released 2 weekends from now (April 19). Same demographics, so not only it will be a strong competition, with OW around $6M, it will also challenge Frozen for the #1 spot.

So we have TWS and Conan in 2 weeks. Is Conan mostly children? Doraemon had little impact. Key demo is women for frozen judging ladies day. I assume CATWS will be young males.Spidey and a female local film in 3 weeks. Spidey males as well. Maybe just the local film for women you mention is real competitor.In past years 25m to 35m weekends happened from end of april to early May. Last year was weaker 15-20m.With the holdovers very weak There should be space for the new releases and frozen to thriveIf toy story was able to dominate obon in week 7 up against several big releases, so can frozen.spidey will probably take #1 but fade hard the next weekend Edited April 7, 2014 by mfantin65

[LABAS]

Let's see how Conan Detective performed last year.

Its OW weekend was  around 7 m

However, the weekdays dropped sharply, with 5 weekday only 2.3m

and the second weekend dropped to 4.1m

The third week, however, was the GW and Conan gained 12m in this week, almost 100% bump.

In the following ten weeks, it got another 10m.

The total gross was around 36m

Edited April 7, 2014 by LABAS

[mfantin65]

Let's see how Conan Detective performed last year.Its OW weekend was around 7 mHowever, the weekdays dropped sharply, with 5 weekday only 2.3mand the second weekend dropped to 4.1mThe third week, however, was the GW and Conan gained 12m in this week, almost 100% bump.In the following ten weeks, it got another 10m.The total gross was around 36m

so the low midweek indicates mostly children. 2.3m vs frozen 9m. Its a small part of frozens demo then.If 230 number is above 11k its gonna be another surprise week, 9m+ Edited April 8, 2014 by mfantin65

[Mojoguy]

so the low midweek indicates mostly children. 2.3m vs frozen 9m. Its a small part of frozens demo then.If 230 number is above 11k its gonna be another surprise week, 9m+

Looks like a majority of Frozen fans are adult women in Japan, which is great since that group spends the most money going to movie theaters.

Edited April 8, 2014 by Mojoguy

[LABAS]

As I said, today is the first day of post SB.All the movie fell sharply. Frozen only has 6527 adm in toho.