China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[MinaTakla]

Release dates (pretty much official) are just set for some revenue-sharing imports: 

 

T5 ---------- Aug 23

A zori zdes tikhie (2015, Russia) --- Aug 25

Assassination (2015, South Korea) --- Aug 25

Pixels ----- Aug 27

MI5 -------- Sep 8

Minions --- Sep 13

 

IO, A-M, F4 probably all go Oct.

Firedeep, what do you think of the dates for MI5 and Minions? Are these good dates for both films or is September a lesser month than August?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

These are all meh to poor dates.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

July looks to reach 5.5B.
 
Projected 2015 year-end box office 44~45B $7B+, 48~51% YOY increase:

Jan ~ Jun 20.2B

July 5.5B

Aug 3.6B

Sep 4.1B

Oct 4B

Nov 3~3.5B (last year was 2.28B)

Dec 4B (no major bomb from local films)

 

According to SARFT's report, total box office of imports should be 10.8B as of now. (though I have counted a bit more than 10.6B, 19 quotas have been used). Local share is 54% as of last weekend.

 

Predictions for some major imports for the rest of the year:

Terminator: Genisys ----- 800m

Assassination + A Zori Zdes Tikhie --- 100m

Mission Impossible 5 ---- 1.5B

Minions ----- 700m

Pixels ---- 300m

Inside Out ----- 400m

The Fantastic Four ------ 500m

Ant-Man ----- 600m

Autobahn + Maze Runner 2 + Hitman ---- 1B

Spectre ---- 700m

The Walk + Everest ----- 500m

That's 6.7B+10.8B = 1.75B total, of course there might be some buyout releases, making it 1.8B.

 

Market share of imported films for 2015 should be about 40~41% (around 17B) or a bit more if something breaks out, one of the lower ones of the past ten years, about 8B less than local films.
 
I think, even without SARFT's control on release dates, imports share is very hard to reach 50%, as now only 50~60 imported titles are getting released each year, vs 300 local ones.
 
Without any censorship (on both local and foreign films), without SARFT's control on the release of foreign films, say China releases as many foreign films as possible just like South Korea and Japan, I think in the first few years, imports share could surpass 50% maybe even get close to 60%, but in ten years, with the quality of local films dramatically advancing, the market would be still dominated by Chinese language films (though maybe many of those would be co-productions), easily. In short, without any censorship, protection on local films would be unnecessary IMO: unlike any other country not-named the US, China has a huge market, allowing the possibility of a film industry as strong as Hollywood and its own rich history and culture, providing endless subjects for films. 
 
However, it is impossible for SARFT and other authorities to (totally) lift their censorship. Ultimately, the so-called protection on local films is just an excuse. The censorship is there to manipulate people's minds so the current ruling can last as long as possible.

Edited July 22, 2015 by firedeep

[Olive]

Tueday Estimates

Daily total 211M yuan 

1). Monster Hunt ￥101M/cume: 879M($141.6M) 

2). JianBing Man ￥70.3M/cume: 582M($93.8M) 

3). TMK : Hero is back ￥28.4M/cume: 525M($84.6M) 

4). Shaun the sheep ￥3.0M/cume: 33.2M($5.3M) 

5). Tiny Times 4 ￥2.2M/cume: 479M($77.2M) 

6). Forever Young ￥1.4M/cume: 373M($60M)

[CelestialFairyIX]

How far will Monster Hunt go?  I'm thinking $250 - 300 million seems reasonable at this point but what do I know about the China market.

[Lihongkim]

 

Tueday Estimates

Daily total 211M yuan 

1). Monster Hunt ￥101M/cume: 879M($141.6M) 

2). JianBing Man ￥70.3M/cume: 582M($93.8M) 

3). TMK : Hero is back ￥28.4M/cume: 525M($84.6M) 

4). Shaun the sheep ￥3.0M/cume: 33.2M($5.3M) 

5). Tiny Times 4 ￥2.2M/cume: 479M($77.2M) 

6). Forever Young ￥1.4M/cume: 373M($60M)

 

Great Monster Hunt, 100m 6days in a row

[sgchn40]

Great Monster Hunt, 100m 6days in a row

Is this a first for local films?

[jiangsen]

Is this a first for local films?

Yes...

[Olive]

How far will Monster Hunt go?  I'm thinking $250 - 300 million seems reasonable at this point but what do I know about the China market.

1.75B yuan is the floor.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Among local films, only Breakup Buddies had two 100m+ days before MH.

 

I think MH is going to make $300m, if not more.

[sgchn40]

Among local films, only Breakup Buddies had two 100m+ days before MH.

I think MH is going to make $300m, if not more.

Is there a thread on how much MH is making outside of China?

[POTUS 2020]

	TF4						MH
Day	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
Thur						162			162	27
Fri	195			195	32	131			293	48
Sat	223	14.4%		418	69	187	42.7%		480	79
Sun	213	-4.6%		631	103	181	-3.2%		661	108
Mon	123	-42.1%		754	124	107	-40.9%		768	126
Tues	112	-8.9%		866	142	101	-5.6%		869	142
Wed	95	-15.7%		961	157
Thur	84	-11.0%		1045	171
Fri	87	3.4%	-55.3%	1132	186
Sat	130	48.8%	-41.9%	1262	207
Sun	118	-9.0%	-44.6%	1379	226
Mon	54	-58.3%	-56.1%	1433	235
Tue	53	-1.9%	-52.8%	1486	244
Wed	43	-18.9%	-54.5%	1529	251
Thu	39	-9.3%	-53.7%	1568	257
Fri	42	7.7%	-51.8%	1610	264
Sat	62	47.6%	-52.2%	1672	274
Sun	58	-6.45%	-50.8%	1730	284
Mon	26	-55.2%	-51.9%	1756	288
Tue	28	7.7%	-47.2%	1784	293
Wed	23	-17.9%	-46.5%	1807	296
Thu	18	-21.7%	-53.8%	1825	299
				1975	319				707	116

TF4 held rather well with an average of 50% drops WoW

MH dailies started off smaller , can it hold better than TF4?

It will have the advantage of staying in theaters longer than 30 days.

Lets see how it faces off this weekend

[sgchn40]

TF4 MH Day Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Thur 162 162 27 Fri 195 195 32 131 293 48 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 187 42.7% 480 79 Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 181 -3.2% 661 108 Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 107 -40.9% 768 126 Tues 112 -8.9% 866 142 101 -5.6% 869 142 Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 Thur 84 -11.0% 1045 171 Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 Mon 54 -58.3% -56.1% 1433 235 Tue 53 -1.9% -52.8% 1486 244 Wed 43 -18.9% -54.5% 1529 251 Thu 39 -9.3% -53.7% 1568 257 Fri 42 7.7% -51.8% 1610 264 Sat 62 47.6% -52.2% 1672 274 Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 Mon 26 -55.2% -51.9% 1756 288 Tue 28 7.7% -47.2% 1784 293 Wed 23 -17.9% -46.5% 1807 296 Thu 18 -21.7% -53.8% 1825 299 1975 319 707 116

TF4 held rather well with an average of 50% drops WoW

MH dailies started off smaller , can it hold better than TF4?

It will have the advantage of staying in theaters longer than 30 days.

Lets see how it faces off this weekend

Great chart! Today's charting slower than yesterday. The 100m yuan streak should end today.

[Olive]

Wednesday Estimates

Daily total 180M yuan 

1). Monster Hunt ￥87M/cume: 967M($155.7M) 

2). JianBing Man ￥58M/cume: 641M($103.2M) 

3). TMK : Hero is back ￥24.5M/cume: 550M($88.6M) 

4). The Imitation Game ￥3.1M/cume: 5.9M($0.95M) 

5). Shaun the sheep ￥2.7M/cume: 35.9M($5.8M) 

6). Tiny Times 4 ￥1.9M/cume: 481M($77.5M) 

[MinaTakla]

In terms of Asia, are there any markets that seem to mirror China in terms of audience interest/movie legs etc?

An interesting thought that came to mind when I was looking at MI5 and Big hero 6 as examples. Does success in Singapore/Hong Kong/Taiwan/Philippines etc signal success/flop in China or it doesn't work that way?

[samsha22]

In terms of Asia, are there any markets that seem to mirror China in terms of audience interest/movie legs etc?

An interesting thought that came to mind when I was looking at MI5 and Big hero 6 as examples. Does success in Singapore/Hong Kong/Taiwan/Philippines etc signal success/flop in China or it doesn't work that way?

China and India are very similar (except for animations)

[sgchn40]

In terms of Asia, are there any markets that seem to mirror China in terms of audience interest/movie legs etc?

An interesting thought that came to mind when I was looking at MI5 and Big hero 6 as examples. Does success in Singapore/Hong Kong/Taiwan/Philippines etc signal success/flop in China or it doesn't work that way?

 

It doesn't work that way I am afraid. Chinese films do not do well in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore these days. For example, MH is a disappointment in HK grossing much less than Ant-man. Furious 7 did not do as well in Hong Kong compared to China.

 

There really seems to be a cultural difference despite them being all of Chinese ancestry.

Edited July 23, 2015 by sgchn40

[sgchn40]

MH has crossed ¥1 billion in 1/3 of the time of LIT today. By Sunday, it should be the number 1 local film of all time (not adjusted for inflation)?

Edited July 23, 2015 by sgchn40

[jiangsen]

#ChinaBoxOffice Thurs 7.23 (Est) #1 #MonsterHunt $13M/$169.25M #2 #JianbingMan $8.4M/$112.1M #3 #MonkeyKingHeroIsBack $3.6M/$92.3M

— China Box Office (@ChinaBoxOffice)

July 23, 2015

#ChinaBoxOffice Thurs 7.23 (Est) #4 #Seer5 NEW $1.9M #5 #AuraStar NEW $0.5M #6 @ImitationGame $0.48M/$1.5M Daily Total $28.8M

— China Box Office (@ChinaBoxOffice)

July 23, 2015

[jiangsen]

#ChinaBoxOffice #MonsterHunt became the highest grossing Chinese film of 2015 w/ an est. $169.25M through Thursday pic.twitter.com/xMUQiIwTtM

— China Box Office (@ChinaBoxOffice)

July 23, 2015