China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[MinaTakla]

Guys am watching CNN and they're going on and on about the Chinese stocks falling and crisis etc

Does this affect Box Office at any way?

Sorry if this was discussed earlier and I missed it

[Mojoguy]

Guys am watching CNN and they're going on and on about the Chinese stocks falling and crisis etc

Does this affect Box Office at any way?

Sorry if this was discussed earlier and I missed it

Why are the stocks falling?

[Lihongkim]

Thanks, that's a positive review for WC, which is Ringo Lam's first real film in 12 years. Glad he's still got it. I like action thrillers like the ones Johnny To makes. Very pumped for next year's Three on the Road despite Zhao Wei ...

 

I think Sword Master = Death Duel, right ?

Zhao Wei, what's wrong? sound like u do not like her.

 

Oh, i just found it. It's right Sword Master = Death Duel.

Three on the Road, i hope it did not cast Louis Koo. i find myself dislike him. 

Acton thrillers, i think i was only touched by the plot of Jackie Chan's Police Story 2013. Just prefer Marital Art movies. 

[jiangsen]

#ChinaBoxOffice Preview: Can anything stop #MonsterHunt? #TheCrossing #TheLadyOfTheDynasty http://t.co/ptOFD3eaGU pic.twitter.com/GW91Mz8M0H

— China Box Office (@ChinaBoxOffice)

July 28, 2015

[jiangsen]

#MonsterHunt (est $241.8M) became the 3rd highest-grossing film of all-time yesterday surpassing #AvengersAgeOfUltron pic.twitter.com/Yd67Kps7fi

— China Box Office (@ChinaBoxOffice)

July 28, 2015

[POTUS 2020]

KFP3 will be top 3.

An animation movie finally made $100m for the first time. I know KFP2 did well, but I don't see how KFP3 jumps to $300m+ when animation doesn't have that good a track record

[POTUS 2020]

Guys am watching CNN and they're going on and on about the Chinese stocks falling and crisis etc

Does this affect Box Office at any way?

Sorry if this was discussed earlier and I missed it

 No it wont have an affect immediately. As long as people are working they'll have money to go to the movies. Losses in the market hit a small percentage of the population hard. The bigger picture is whether or not this is a sign that the 20+ year boom is over. If so, there will be less investment in infrastructure and expansion by government and corporations as there is less money out there due to the slide and harder to raise new capital. Less new jobs, even layoffs could happen as part of a ripple effect but thatll take a year+ to materialize. First we have to hear what happens to GDP, then we mite see a smaller % of theaters built as there will be less city expansion. Then when talk of unemployment hits the news due to a massive slow down, then you will see the affect on BO.

Why are the stocks falling?

Short answer. More sellers than buyers

If you notice in this thread, most are on the bandwagon the the BO will countinue to boom, pass domestic and go to the moon. Same fervor happens in the market. Everyone see the market going up, keep making money, and keep buying until it gets to ridiculous levels, then people act ridiculously and it then goes higher even faster. Then the rug is pulled. someone starts to sell big as they see the numbers are too high or economic numbers look shaky or there is no money left to buy as its all been thrown in. Once it starts to fall, losses are incurred, many want to sell, and most are afraid to buy. Greed that drove it up turns to fear and panic.

"Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds". A must read for anyone that gets involved in the markets. Featured in it was the Dutch Tulip Crisis from nearly 400 years ago. In short, Tulips became so wildly popular due to mutations a dozen bulbs sold for a price equal too a weathy merchants house. It collapsed, and the ripple effect ruined Holland financially for a long time 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

[Lihongkim]

An animation movie finally made $100m for the first time. I know KFP2 did well, but I don't see how KFP3 jumps to $300m+ when animation doesn't have that good a track record

After TMK cleared mind-set about Chinese animated film, Audiences will tend to support their local animated movies. 

 

" Kung Fu Panda franchise cannot really represent Chinese-style animation since it's Western values that make its characters tick, despite their Chinese guise ". So how did the homegrown monkey give the Hollywood-born Panda a run for its money? 

http://china.org.cn/arts/2015-07/28/content_36167911.htm

[POTUS 2020]

4 wide releases this week, holdover will be hit hard.

Early Thursday showtimes

Wild City 31.3%

Lady of the Dynasty 27.2%

Monster Hunt 14.7%

JBM  7.6%

Are those 2 both expected to do over 50m on Friday? its a shame to knock down MH to 15%. Its did over 50% of tickets yesterday with 32% of showtimes.

 

 

LIT							MH		-40%	Proj
Day	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
Tues	12.10	40			40	7
Wed	12.11	39	-2.5%		79	13
Thur	12.12	54	38.5%		133	22	165			165	27
Fri	12.13	90			90	15	132			297	48
Sat	12.14	85	-5.6%		175	29	188	42.4%		485	78
Sun	12.15	48	-43.5%		223	37	183	-2.7%		668	108
Mon	12.16	58	20.8%		281	46	109	-40.4%		777	125
Tues	12.17	50	-13.8%	25.0%	331	54	102	-6.4%		879	142
Wed	12.18	36	-28.0%	-7.7%	367	60	87	-14.7%		966	156
Thur	12.19	46	27.8%	-14.8%	413	68	82	-5.7%	-50.3%	1048	169
Fri	12.20	73	58.7%	-18.9%	486	80	80	-2.4%	-39.4%	1128	182
Sat	12.21	67	-8.2%	-21.2%	553	91	120	50.0%	-36.2%	1248	201
Sun	12.22	47	-29.9%	-2.1%	600	98	124	2.9%	-32.5%	1372	221
Mon	12.23	44	-34.3%	-24.1%	644	106	64	-48.2%	-41.3%	1436	231
Tue	12.24	31	-29.5%	-38.0%	675	111	61	-4.7%	-40.2%	1497	241	est
Wed	12.25	27	-12.9%	-25.0%	702	115	57	-6.6%	-34.5%	1554	250	proj
Thu	12.26	31	14.8%	-32.6%	733	120	44	-22.8%	-46.3%	1598	257	proj
Fri	12.27	44	41.9%	-39.7%	777	127	42	-4.5%	-47.5%	1640	264	proj
Sat	12.28	46	4.5%	-31.3%	823	135	60	42.9%	-50.0%	1700	274	proj
Sun	12.29	43	-6.52%	-8.5%	866	142	58	-3.33%	-53.0%	1758	283	proj
Mon	12.30	53	23.3%	20.5%	919	151	35	-39.7%	-45.3%	1793	289	proj
Tue	12.31	41	-22.6%	32.3%	960	157	33	-5.7%	-45.9%	1826	294	proj
Wed	1.01	25	-39.0%	-7.4%	985	161	32	-3.0%	-43.9%	1858	299	proj
Thu	1.02	17	-32.0%	-45.2%	1002	164	26	-18.8%	-40.9%	1884	303	proj
Fri	1.03	13	-23.5%	-70.5%	1015	166	27	3.8%	-35.7%	1911	308	proj
Sat	1.04	12	-7.7%	-73.9%	1027	168	39	44.4%	-35.0%	1950	314	proj
Sun	1.05	9	-25.00%	-79.1%	1036	170	38	-2.56%	-34.5%	1988	320	proj
Mon	1.06	8	-11.1%	-84.9%	1044	171	22	-42.1%	-37.1%	2010	324	proj
Tue	1.07	6.5	-18.8%	-84.1%	1051	172	21	-4.5%	-36.4%	2031	327	proj
Wed	1.08	6.1	-6.2%	-75.6%	1057	173	20	-4.8%	-37.5%	2051	330	proj
Thu	1.09	7.3	19.7%	-57.1%	1064	174	17	-15.0%	-34.6%	2068	333	proj
Fri	1.10	11.9	63.0%	-8.5%	1076	176	18	5.9%	-33.3%	2086	336	proj
Sat	1.11	9.6	-19.3%	-20.0%	1085	178	25	38.9%	-35.9%	2111	340	proj
Sun	1.12	4.5	-53.1%	-50.0%	1090	179	23	-8.00%	-39.5%	2134	344	proj
Mon	1.13	4.6	2.2%	-42.5%	1095	179	13	-43.5%	-40.9%	2147	346	proj
Tue	1.14	3.5	-23.9%	-46.2%	1098	180	12	-7.7%	-42.9%	2159	348	proj
	390				1225	200				2200	350	-370

 

I took a look at Lost in Thailand, the old record holder, to see how it ran. It was December so it had school out and IDK what kind of holidays. It maintained 30% of showtimes or higher for 30 days. It held well up against new competition throughout december. Made $25m from day 31 to 70 when it closed in february.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Zhao Wei, what's wrong? sound like u do not like her.

 

Oh, i just found it. It's right Sword Master = Death Duel.

Three on the Road, i hope it did not cast Louis Koo. i find myself dislike him. 

Acton thrillers, i think i was only touched by the plot of Jackie Chan's Police Story 2013. Just prefer Marital Art movies. 

I don't like or dislike Zhao Wei as an actress, just don't feel the excitement of her being cast in the role in Three on the Road, which sounds like a sequel to Drug War. They were going to cast Gao Yuanyuan but then Zhao Wei replaced her ... 

 

Louis Koo is okay. He makes a lot of movies these days, too many actually but he can be pretty decent in some of those. He being the biggest movie star under 50 years old from HK says something.   Mainland talents are dominating the film market as old guys from HK are very aging.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Are those 2 both expected to do over 50m on Friday? its a shame to knock down MH to 15%. Its did over 50% of tickets yesterday with 32% of showtimes.

 

None of this week's openers can do 50m single day. 40 would be very lucky to happen.

[Lihongkim]

I don't like or dislike Zhao Wei as an actress, just don't feel the excitement of her being cast in the role in Three on the Road, which sounds like a sequel to Drug War. They were going to cast Gao Yuanyuan but then Zhao Wei replaced her ... 

 

Louis Koo is okay. He makes a lot of movies these days, too many actually but he can be pretty decent in some of those. He being the biggest movie star under 50 years old from HK says something.   Mainland talents are dominating the film market as old guys from HK are very aging.

Don't u think Johny To always cast Louis Koo & Gao Yuanyuan in most of his movie?

i'm tired of this.

 

Yes, it's time for young generation. Chinese Fresh Meat now is bankable.

[POTUS 2020]

None of this week's openers can do 50m single day. 40 would be very lucky to happen.

Then why would they give 27% and 31% to the openers and MH only 14% when it did 61m yesterday. With close 30% showtimes it would likely do 50m + on Friday. Technically it could still do 50m with 14%, but I think it would have been wise to distribute close to 25% to all 3.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Then why would they give 27% and 31% to the openers and MH only 14% when it did 61m yesterday. With close 30% showtimes it would likely do 50m + on Friday. Technically it could still do 50m with 14%, but I think it would have been wise to distribute close to 25% to all 3.

That's what theaters usually do in China, cutting the screenings of old movies crazily no matter how good they are doing, giving way to new movies even if the new ones will soon tanking.... A stupid behavior that many often murmur at.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Don't u think Johny To always cast Louis Koo & Gao Yuanyuan in most of his movie?

i'm tired of this.

 

Yes, it's time for young generation. Chinese Fresh Meat now is bankable.

True. To often cast Koo in his movies. They are like regular partners. But Gao Yuanyuan has only starred in four Johnnie To movies.

[sgchn40]

 No it wont have an affect immediately. As long as people are working they'll have money to go to the movies. Losses in the market hit a small percentage of the population hard. The bigger picture is whether or not this is a sign that the 20+ year boom is over. If so, there will be less investment in infrastructure and expansion by government and corporations as there is less money out there due to the slide and harder to raise new capital. Less new jobs, even layoffs could happen as part of a ripple effect but thatll take a year+ to materialize. First we have to hear what happens to GDP, then we mite see a smaller % of theaters built as there will be less city expansion. Then when talk of unemployment hits the news due to a massive slow down, then you will see the affect on BO.

Short answer. More sellers than buyers

If you notice in this thread, most are on the bandwagon the the BO will countinue to boom, pass domestic and go to the moon. Same fervor happens in the market. Everyone see the market going up, keep making money, and keep buying until it gets to ridiculous levels, then people act ridiculously and it then goes higher even faster. Then the rug is pulled. someone starts to sell big as they see the numbers are too high or economic numbers look shaky or there is no money left to buy as its all been thrown in. Once it starts to fall, losses are incurred, many want to sell, and most are afraid to buy. Greed that drove it up turns to fear and panic.

"Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds". A must read for anyone that gets involved in the markets. Featured in it was the Dutch Tulip Crisis from nearly 400 years ago. In short, Tulips became so wildly popular due to mutations a dozen bulbs sold for a price equal too a weathy merchants house. It collapsed, and the ripple effect ruined Holland financially for a long time 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

 

 

That's a long version Just to add, part of the reason is because many are highly leveraged so they cannot hold. They had expected the government to continue to relax monetary policies and when they did not for one weekend, the selling started. When more and more companies hit their daily trading limit of 10% (and halted), the traders were forced to sell all their other holdings that can still be sold, which led to a broader market selloff. Hong Kong suffered the contagion effect too as the mainlanders sell their H-shares to cover their margin calls. The government tried to intervene to no avail for a couple of days. They finally get it under control after some really eyebrow raising, draconian anti-market rules.

 

My worry is that once a government attempts to save the virtual money market by throwing real money at it, they can never get out and have to keep burning cash doing so. This week suggests that they are aware of this threat and is trying not to be sucked into it. The 8% fall appears to be the government testing the waters to see what will happen if they gradually remove their support from the market. Clearly, not so well. We shall see how everything pans out. I am pessimistic. 

 

As M F Lawrence pointed out, the effects on the box office will only be minimal as long as this does not affect the real economy immediately. But since they want companies to buyback their own shares, and forbid any big shareholders from selling their shares, and are accumulating shares themselves, one begin to wonder how much cash is left for investment and growth...

Edited July 29, 2015 by sgchn40

[Olive]

Then why would they give 27% and 31% to the openers and MH only 14% when it did 61m yesterday. With close 30% showtimes it would likely do 50m + on Friday. Technically it could still do 50m with 14%, but I think it would have been wise to distribute close to 25% to all 3.

MH will be under 10% on Friday.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I think the relevance of China's stock market to China's real economy is a bit overestimated.

[POTUS 2020]

I think the relevance of China's stock market to China's real economy is a bit overestimated.

That's true, because unlike other countries, the government is so involved in promoting growth both at the local and national level. But at some point something has to give. History tells us it always does when dealing with such massive expansion and reaching these humungous numbers so quickly. The west dragged down china in 09 and china recovered nicely after trillions of dollars of funny money were written by western governments. But this shanghai tumble is leading the way which could drag the west down as they are reliant on Chinese growth then have it fold back on china. with Greece getting flushed again and other western economies going to have 2010 financial crisis bubble back up to the surface it could b a rough 24 months ahead. Again, BO should be fine for at least another year. Interesting thing to watch is the amount of theaters being built as a sign of an economic slowdown.

[POTUS 2020]

	Screens	% Inc	Adm (m)	Adm Inc	Adm P/Sc	BO $M	% Inc	Tix Ave	GDPnom	BO% GDPnom	GDPppp	BO% GDPppp	ppp% nom
2003						125			1,650,000	.0076%	4,960,000	.0025%	200.6%
2004						187	49.6%		1,940,000	.0096%	5,610,000	.0033%	189.2%
2005	4400		157		35682	250	33.7%	$1.59	2,270,000	.0110%	6,400,000	.0039%	181.9%
2006	4700	6.8%	176	12.1%	37447	342	36.8%	$1.94	2,730,000	.0125%	7,330,000	.0047%	168.5%
2007	5600	19.1%	195	10.8%	34821	438	28.1%	$2.25	3,520,000	.0124%	8,840,000	.0050%	151.1%
2008	5700	1.8%	209	7.2%	36667	586	33.8%	$2.80	4,560,000	.0129%	9,850,000	.0059%	116.0%
2009	6300	10.5%	263	25.8%	41746	873	49.0%	$3.32	5,060,000	.0173%	10,700,000	.0082%	111.5%
2010	7800	23.8%	290	10.3%	37179	1452	66.3%	$5.01	6,040,000	.0240%	12,300,000	.0118%	103.6%
2011	9200	17.9%	370	27.6%	40217	1929	32.9%	$5.21	7,500,000	.0257%	13,800,000	.0140%	84.0%
2012	14000	52.2%	462	24.9%	33000	2586	34.1%	$5.60	8,460,000	.0306%	14,900,000	.0174%	76.1%
2013	18100	29.3%	612	32.5%	33812	3400	31.5%	$5.56	9,500,000	.0358%	16,200,000	.0210%	70.5%
2014	23600	30.4%	830	35.6%	35169	4800	41.2%	$5.78	10,360,000	.0463%	17,630,000	.0272%	70.2%
2015	29000	22.9%	1200	44.6%	41379	6800	41.7%	$5.67	11,100,000	.0613%	18,800,000	.0362%	69.4%
2005-14% Increase	436%	21%	429%	21%	36673	1820%	39%	263%	356%	321%	175%	597%	-61%
		Average		Average	Average		Average
Russia						1400			1,850,000	.0757%	3,500,000	.0400%	89.2%
Mexico						900			1,280,000	.0703%	2,140,000	.0421%	67.2%
France						1800			2,850,000	.0632%	2,580,000	.0698%	-9.5%
UK						1700			3,050,000	.0557%	2,500,000	.0680%	-18.0%
China 2015						6800			11,100,000	.0613%	18,800,000	.0362%	69.4%
USA						9500			17,800,000	.0534%	17,800,000	.0534%	0.0%
Brazil						800			2,350,000	.0340%	3,260,000	.0245%	38.7%
India						1700			2,050,000	.0829%	7,400,000	.0230%	261.0%

Key numbers to watch for the next year are how many screens will be built then how many attend per screen. This year will hit the upper threshold of near 42,000 per screen. I assume they'll build at least 25% more or 7500 unless there is a slow down in expansion of cities. Then we'll see if the attendance per screen keeps pace or drops off.

GDP announcements will be important as the percentage of BO to GDPnom is now caught up with many other established markets. So the popularity of going to the movies has just about caught up, the rest is up to stock market impact which could affect investment, expansion and then there is countermeasures by the government to keep the train going.

 

Less than 10% of screens on Friday for MH after doing 60m? it'll be interesting to see how much BO % to showtime % it has. Its popular, it should continue to outperform and get some times back.